LAS VEGAS -- In the NFL, it's playoff time -- also known as the second season -- so it's a good time to wipe the slate clean and get ready for the games that really mean something. It's been a frustrating season for yours truly. I started slow, and even when I got on a roll and near .500 I wasn't able to sustain it.
After going 72-56-2 ATS (55.4 percent) in this column in 2012, my losing record this season dropped my overall mark to 127-120-5 (51.45 percent), which just isn't good enough when laying 11 to win 10 (and needing 52.3 percent to break even).
But it's playoff time, and we're ready to tackle the four wild-card games this weekend. As we usually do, I'll take a look at how the public and wiseguys are viewing the games and then give my take (figuratively and literally).
Last week: 3-5 ATS |
Year to date: 55-62-3 (47 percent) ATS
Note: Public Consensus Pick percentages from ESPN Insider's PickCenter as of Thursday morning.
Matchup:
Kansas City Chiefs at
Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Colts minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 53 percent picked Chiefs
Public perception: The public is just slightly on the favored Colts here, but it hasn't been enough to push the line to minus-3. The public likes that the Colts seem to be peaking at the right time as they've won (and covered) their last three games. That includes a 23-7 rout of this same Chiefs team just two weeks ago in Kansas City. And given their druthers, the public is more likely to side with
Andrew Luck over
Alex Smith.
Wiseguys' view: There is no definitive wiseguy side to this game, and we see that throughout the weekend as all the lines seem pretty solid and the sharps are split at the current numbers. Although the sharps respect Luck, they also know that Smith's stats are nearly identical this year so there's no big edge at that position. Overall, these teams are pretty evenly matched.
Tuley's Take: At first glance, that earlier meeting concerns me. But looking back at how it went has me thinking the Chiefs will turn the tables. They ran right through the Colts defense on the opening drive (a week after putting up 56 points on the Raiders) with
Jamaal Charles capping it off with a 31-yard touchdown run, but otherwise looked like a team that already knew it was going to be locked into the No. 5 seed and would be facing this team again. I don't think Andy Reid showed his best hand. The Chiefs were also undone by two interceptions by Smith and a fumble by backup running back
Knile Davis. As long as they avoid turnovers -- and Charles gets to run wild on the fast turf in Indy -- I think we see that the Chiefs are the better team and advance.
The pick: Chiefs
Wunderdog says: "I think the wrong team is favored here. The way the line has moved, it seems some agree. Indianapolis has not looked like the same team that ran the table on arguably the best teams in the NFL early in the season. Early on, the Colts beat Seattle, San Francisco and Denver over the course of a five-week span. But let's not forget that they also lost to Miami, San Diego, St. Louis, Arizona and Cincinnati. And those big wins were with
Reggie Wayne in the lineup. While the Colts have won their last three games, this team is not built for the playoffs. They don't run the ball well, and without Wayne, this offense isn't the same.
"Teams that can run the ball well are generally good bets in the playoffs, and Kansas City generates 4.66 yards per carry. Remember, Charles went for 106 yards and a TD on just 16 carries in the loss to Indianapolis earlier this season. And because the Chiefs were behind, he did not get utilized as much as he will in this one.
"But the Chiefs lost to Indianapolis just a few weeks ago, you say? KC didn't have
Justin Houston for that game. He is an elite pass-rusher and hasn't played since Week 12, but his return makes the Chiefs instantly better defensively. The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS on the road this season and Reid's teams are 78-49 ATS on the road including 42-23 ATS as a road underdog. Reid-led teams are also 27-10 ATS on the road in a 'revenge' game."
Pick: Chiefs
Sal Selvaggio says: "I made Indy minus-1, which is pretty dead on the number. I was hoping for plus-3 when the line opened at plus-2.5 but with money coming on the Chiefs already there is no shot at it getting there now. KC has been very unimpressive down the stretch but my gut says they are the right side in this one."
Pick: Chiefs
Matchup:
New Orleans Saints at
Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles minus-2.5
Public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Saints
Public perception: Both of these teams with high-flying offenses often receive a lot of public support, so it's no surprise that the public is relatively split here. The Saints, with
Drew Brees and more recent playoff success, get the nod from the public, though just like the Chiefs-Colts game it hasn't been enough to budge this line through the middle of the week.
Wiseguys' view: While some sharps are sure to be on the Saints as well, many will be willing to fade them on the road. It has become abundantly clear that the Saints are a juggernaut at home but a different team on the road. They were just 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS this season away from New Orleans.
Tuley's Take: I just can't trust the Saints to reverse their road trend. At the same time, I don't trust either team's defense. So even though I don't often bet overs in playoff games (and this total of 53.5 sure seems high), I feel that's the best bet in this game. The weather is expected to be cold, especially with the late starting time, but we saw in the Lions-Eagles game and other inclement-weather games late in the season that scoring is more dictated by the teams than the elements.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Eagles).
Wunderdog says: "The Eagles closed out the season 7-1, and were finally the team everyone thought they would be a year ago. But,
Nick Foles was actually a lot better on the road than at home this season (mirroring his team's fate). Foles put up a 138.4 passer rating on the road, which fell to just 94.1 at home. New Orleans' home/road dichotomy is well noted. In home games, Brees owns a ridiculous 126.3 passer rating. But send him out under the elements, and his passer rating falls 41.5 points to 84.8 (the league average this season was 84.1).
"The New Orleans defense gets a lot of credit, and rightfully so, as they are vastly improved. But what goes unnoticed is the improvement by the Eagles defense. Outside the no-show debacle in Minnesota, Philadelphia has not allowed any other team to score more than 22 points against them since Week 4. The Saints have feasted on porous defenses going 15-5 ATS the past three seasons versus teams that give up 350-plus yards per game. Still, Philadelphia is just 3-12 ATS at home the past two seasons, and New Orleans is 1-7 ATS on the road this season. In the end, this is too tough a game to call. Pass."
Pick: Pass
Sal Selvaggio says: "I made Philly minus-1.5 and was thinking Saints plus-3 would be a decent bet until I ran the database situations that show some pretty good historical situations that favor the Eagles in this game. The Eagles have been one of the league's best teams since Foles took over, and the Saints haven't fared well on the road this year. Brees/Sean Payton have been to this rodeo before whereas Chip Kelly/Foles are both first-timers. This game is a tough one to call with a lot of conflicting numbers, so I likely won't be involved."
Pick: Pass
Matchup:
San Diego Chargers at
Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals minus-7
Public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Bengals
Public perception: This is the biggest spread of the wild-card weekend, but that isn't keeping the public from being willing to back the favorite. The Bengals are 8-0 SU and ATS at home, so that certainly catches the public's attention, plus the Chargers didn't gather much support after letting down the public last week when they were dominated by the Chiefs' backups and should have lost as 14-point favorites. Many don't feel they deserve to be in the playoffs.
Wiseguys' view: Again, we'll find sharps on both sides here. While there are those that feel the Bengals are clearly the better team and grabbed the minus-6.5 lines that have been available, there are others that see the Chargers as a live underdog. For everyone that says the Chargers are a sun-loving bunch from California that won't want to play in the cold, there are others that point to the fact the Chargers went into Kansas City and Denver and won cold-weather games during the regular season.
Tuley's Take: I've said it before, but I'll say it again: I really like this Bengals team, and I've been burned a number of times when going against it this year (including just last week with the Ravens, though I still don't know how the Ravens went from looking like they would cover to losing 34-17). But at the same time, I just feel this is too many points to pass up. As alluded to in the previous section, the Chargers have done just fine away from home in the cold. Their first meeting was a 17-10 win by Cincinnati, and it wouldn't surprise me to see another low-scoring battle where the points come into play.
The pick: Chargers (lean to the under).
Wunderdog says: "The Bengals are a perfect 8-0 at home, but that just begins to tell the story. Their last five home games show a composite score of 208-78, which works out to a margin of victory of 26 points per game. It isn't often a team survives four INTs by their QB and wins by 17 points, but that was the case last week with Cincinnati. Just 28 teams in NFL history have committed four turnovers and won by more than two TDs. That's how good this Bengals team can be at home.
"They have a solid defense, holding six teams to 20 or fewer at home, including just six points allowed to New England. It could be another long day for Philip Rivers as the Bengals have held opposing QBs to a 60.6 passer rating in this building, while registering 24 sacks. The Bengals are now 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. And the Chargers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games versus high-scoring offenses like the Bengals (teams that average 24-plus points per game).
Andy Dalton is at his best versus bad pass defenses like San Diego's.
"San Diego had the ultimate backdoor playoff entry, but the Chargers have won four straight and their defense has played much better down the stretch. However, San Diego still has no running game, which becomes a lethal liability in the playoffs. And the Chargers have allowed opposing QBs to complete 66.4 percent of their passes.
"Dalton is 12-3 ATS versus teams that allow 61 percent-and-above completions. Lay the points on Cincy."
Pick: Bengals
Sal Selvaggio says: "I made the Bengals 7.5-point favorites and have to think Cincy minus-6.5 offers a little value. Last week was really telling with San Diego having everything to play for and needing overtime to beat a Chiefs team mailing it in. The Bengals match up well with a strong pass defense and should be able to limit Rivers & Co. The weather will be cold, with the potential for snow, conditions that have to favor Cincy. The Bengals been lights-out at home all year long and still look a little undervalued to me. Lay the points here."
Pick: Bengals
Matchup:
San Francisco 49ers at
Green Bay Packers
Spread: 49ers minus-3 (EVEN money)
Public consensus pick: 73 percent picked 49ers
Public perception: This is the only game of the weekend with a road team favored, but the public is undeterred and will continue to lay the points with the 49ers. It's saying a lot, since the Packers are a very public team, and they have
Aaron Rodgers back. But the 49ers look like they're peaking at the right time, just like last season, with six straight wins.
Wiseguys' view: As detailed in my
"Opening Line" column on Monday, this line opened as low as pick 'em offshore and was 49ers minus-1 at the LVH when the game times were announced Sunday night. However early bets flowed in on the 49ers and within half an hour it was minus-2.5 everywhere. It didn't take much to push it to minus-3, which is where the wiseguys have bought back the Packers. I haven't mentioned teasers yet, but a lot of people are sure to be teasing the Packers over a touchdown.
Tuley's Take: Just like the Chargers-Bengals game, this is tough for me to go against a team I really like, but I feel the value is on the Packers now. These teams are pretty even (and played like it all the way back in Week 1 when the 49ers prevailed 34-28, and needed a late field goal to get the cover) though the Packers have had to overcome a lot more injuries. Here they are in the playoffs and they certainly can keep improving with Rodgers' return. Handicapper Marc Lawrence of
playbook.com points out that home playoff underdogs are 22-12 ATS (64.7 percent) since 1990. So while you don't often get points with home playoff teams, they're usually a solid bet.
The pick: Packers
Wunderdog says: "When all is said and done, this could be the coldest NFL game ever. Bodies, including fingers, will be stiff here and the ball will be hard as a rock. Which team does that favor here? This game is going to come down to which team can run the ball the best. Green Bay will run a lot of
Eddie Lacy, while the Niners will counter with a heavy dose of
Frank Gore."
"San Francisco has held teams to just 16.2 points per game on the road this season, while the Packers allowed just 22.6 per game at home. The Packers' defense should be better by default with Rodgers on the field as the three-and-outs should be minimized, meaning better field position and more rest.
"
Colin Kaepernick has been his best versus weak pass defenses like Green Bay's. The Niners are 8-1 ATS the past two seasons on the road when facing a defense that allows over a 61 percent completion rate. Over that span, the 49ers are 9-1 ATS versus teams that allow 5.7-plus yards per play (Green Bay allows 6.1). But under Mike McCarthy, the Packers are 47-34 ATS following a win and 8-1 ATS versus great defensive teams like the Niners (teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game). On the surface, this one seems like a relatively easy win for San Francisco, but I have a feeling it may not be so easy. This one is too hard to call. Pass."
Pick: Pass
Sal Selvaggio says: "I made Green Bay minus-1 in this game and will be taking plus-3 or more for sure, possibly less. Yes,
Jim Harbaugh is outstanding but something just has been missing in my opinion for this 49ers team. They should run the ball well against the Packers, which is a concern, but I fully expect with
Randall Cobb and Rodgers back Green Bay will move the ball as well. My number may be off on the Packers but I had them rated as the third-best team in the league before Rodgers went down and I find it hard to believe these teams have changed this much where Green Bay is catching 3 points at home. I also like the over 46.5 points here. It will be cold but these NFL offenses are so good this year weather hasn't mattered. While I like this play independently, it also serves as a little hedge in case I am wrong and Green Bay can't stop the 49ers at all."
Pick: Packers (and the over)
