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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (10 Viewers)

lumpy19 said:
mquinnjr said:
John Bender said:
Took Denver at -2.5 with hopes to get Seattle at +3.5

Any chance this keeps steaming off the key number?
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It's going to take a ton of Denver money at -3 to move to Seahawks +3.5. I like this strategy, though. I like Denver under a FG, but would take Seattle in a teaser over a TD. If it goes to +3.5, I'd be really tempted to eat the vig and take them to +10.5 in a 7-point teaser.
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What exactly do you plan on teasing seattle with?
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Was thinking the under. Combine the potential elements and two good defenses (as was stated above, Broncos D looking very good lately), and I like it.

ETA: I don't like betting unders, but I have a harder time selling myself on the over. If Seattle covers, it will be on the back of a low-scoring game.

 
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Aaron> I agree with everything you are saying about the SB. Every post is spot on. You are in the zone and I'm glad to be on the same side as you. Real talk.

 
The Super Bowl has only gone over 5 times in the last 12 years, but when it has, the average margin has been 15.9 points over the total.

 
Since Russell Wilson was drafted, the Seahawks have played 8 games versus the AFC: 4 home and 4 away. They averaged 29.2 points per game at home and 30.5 points per game on the road. One of the road games was a 50-17 win at Buffalo.

During that same time, Jack Del Rio's Bronco defense has played 8 games versus the NFC: 4 home and 4 away. They allowed 19.5 points per game at home and 28.0 points per game on the road. The Broncos averaged 38.9 points per game in those 8 games (37.2 away), and the last 6 have gone over the total.

 
ChainsawU said:
Since Russell Wilson was drafted, the Seahawks have played 8 games versus the AFC: 4 home and 4 away. They averaged 29.2 points per game at home and 30.5 points per game on the road. One of the road games was a 50-17 win at Buffalo.
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that Buffalo game was in Toronto (neutral site basically).

 
Best SOG play on the board tonight looks like PHX O32.5, but it's a little juiced at -140.

also like these a little:

DAL U30.5 (-120)

NSH O30.5 (-130)

PIT O30.5 (-135)

STL U29.5 (-120)

tough to know what will happen in Sharks/Flames since it's such a lopsided matchup and could be a blowout early.

 
under further notice play the over 1h in all Heat games. This game is only 30 points over the spread...with a minute left in the half.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
Best SOG play on the board tonight looks like PHX O32.5, but it's a little juiced at -140.

also like these a little:

DAL U30.5 (-120)

NSH O30.5 (-130)

PIT O30.5 (-135)

STL U29.5 (-120)

tough to know what will happen in Sharks/Flames since it's such a lopsided matchup and could be a blowout early.
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My personal play of the day is under 24.5 saves for Nemi. I dont think Cal is going to be able to put on 27ish shots on Goal at SJ.

 
JaxBill said:
A look at Seattle's defensive numbers
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man the Eagles gave up a lot of yards per game. I know it was a lot heavier to start the season, but still. And funny how the Cowboys are out there all by themselves.

As for the Seahawks, that is a nice graph, but the whole NFC West is in the right area because of playing the AFC South. but that seems to be playing Devil's advocate, they really are separated from everybody else by quite a bit. I would think the under would be a solid play in this one seeing how the Broncos are running up the score to start the games anymore

 
O/U 3-0-1 when the Pacers are dogged. And they covered 3 of those 4 against an average spread of 3.2 versus the Nets, Spurs, Thunder and Heat.

 
Angry Beavers said:
Where are the frosty plays????.

Tailing DD and

Carolina +7

Kansas -5.5 1h

GLTA

AB
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I didn't much care for anything tonight. I'm also starting to suspect that betting conference games is a fool's errand.

 
ChainsawU said:
O/U 3-0-1 when the Pacers are dogged. And they covered 3 of those 4 against an average spread of 3.2 versus the Nets, Spurs, Thunder and Heat.
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I'm really looking forward to watching this game as a NBA fan. Right now it's hard not to bet the Pacers whenever they're a dog, against anyone.

I'm thinking Hibbert will slow the GS bigs scoring and while perimeter defense of Indy is fast, I don't think they'll stop the splash bros. If those guys can hit a few 3s it should be a good game.

 
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Pacers @ Pacific Division since last year:

SU: 5-1 (2.00, 83.3%)

ATS: 4-2-0 (2.58, 66.7%) avg line: 0.6

O/U: 5-1-0 (5.92, 83.3%) avg total: 190.1

Might be arbitrary, but they are 2-0 SU and ATS after playing the previous game at home. The one SU (and ATS) loss was @ the Warriors 92-103. That O/U is 5-0 L5.

 
Warriors are 8-1 SU and ATS against an average line of -3.7 on MLK day the last 10 years (all home games). They averaged 109.0 points per game in those games. link

 
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