FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (10 Viewers)

[ChainsawU]

The Seahawks allowed two teams to score three touchdowns on them this season. The Colts scored four TDs in their home win over the Seahawks on October 6, and the Buccaneers scored 3 TDs (all in the second quarter) in their overtime loss at Seattle. The Seahawks gave up an average of 1.44 touchdowns per game. The Broncos allowed opposing teams to score three or more touchdowns in 9 games this season. They gave up an average of 2.83 touchdowns per game. I'm thinking of hitting SEA o3 touchdowns +171.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

So can someone talk to me here? Pre Conference weekend Denver was going to be a small dog. They win and the money rolls in on them and pushes them to -3 and ends up settling somewhere between 2-3. OK I get it. "The Public" likes Denver.

So if the Public likes Denver that tells me that the Denver O is going to be able to score on the Seattle D and win the game, or at least thats what I think the public narrative is.

The total started at 48.5 quickly went through 48 (an important number) and you can now see 46.5. It's not weather related as far as I can tell. It may be cold but nothing that says winter weather or string winds for sure.

So if the public thinks Denver, and thus the public thinks points why is the total going down?

Seems out of whack to me.

Because everyone bets on the Super Bowl so I'm not sure there is any method to the madness. If the Cowboys were playing the Chiefs, lots of dumb public money is gonna roll in on the Cowboys because...you know...they've won some Super Bowls before. So the public hears all this weather crap and bets down the total while riding Denver without thinking twice about it. That's what I think anyway.

 

[ChainsawU]

Public may be seeing Denver's 7th-ranked rushing defense (tied with Seattle).

 

[ChainsawU]

Denver's defense allowed the same number of regular-season rushing yards as Seattle, but eleven more rushing touchdowns.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Finally watching the gambler

Well?

Gut Wrenching....but I enjoyed it thoroughly.

Spoiler

Obviously, for any gambler, you've been in his shoes before (hopefully not for that kinda cash. I honestly didn't know what way they would go with the fixed game, but the rest of the movie....you knew what was going to happen, but still watched hoping for another outcome.

With respect to the last scene, I guess there were a couple ways to take it:

1. He brought the hooker to a far hotel so he could rob her and start gambling again?

2. He gave up gambling and decided to get his fix through hookers? He was amused getting knifed b/c he actually "felt something". Equating that with "knowing he was going to lose" in gambling

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Public may be seeing Denver's 7th-ranked rushing defense (tied with Seattle).

Maybe they are, but that would be faulty logic given the Broncos are always so far ahead. Recipe for beating Denver is don't get behind, burn the clock, and don't make mistakes. Denver's running game IMO is also a reflection of Manning's ability to tear defenses apart early, and Denver just wears them down with screens and draws and then power running. Seattle can't get behind 14-0 in this game, because it might get ugly as other Denver opponents can attest.

 

[Raider Nation]

So can someone talk to me here? Pre Conference weekend Denver was going to be a small dog. They win and the money rolls in on them and pushes them to -3 and ends up settling somewhere between 2-3. OK I get it. "The Public" likes Denver.

So if the Public likes Denver that tells me that the Denver O is going to be able to score on the Seattle D and win the game, or at least thats what I think the public narrative is.

The total started at 48.5 quickly went through 48 (an important number) and you can now see 46.5. It's not weather related as far as I can tell. It may be cold but nothing that says winter weather or string winds for sure.

So if the public thinks Denver, and thus the public thinks points why is the total going down?

Seems out of whack to me.

Because everyone bets on the Super Bowl so I'm not sure there is any method to the madness. If the Cowboys were playing the Chiefs, lots of dumb public money is gonna roll in on the Cowboys because...you know...they've won some Super Bowls before. So the public hears all this weather crap and bets down the total while riding Denver without thinking twice about it. That's what I think anyway.

Yeah, you'll make yourself crazy trying to intelligently analyze betting patterns in this game. Just go with your gut.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Prediction Machine is on Seattle to not only cover but to win straight up.

 

[Raider Nation]

Finally watching the gambler

Well?

Gut Wrenching....but I enjoyed it thoroughly.

Spoiler

Obviously, for any gambler, you've been in his shoes before (hopefully not for that kinda cash. I honestly didn't know what way they would go with the fixed game, but the rest of the movie....you knew what was going to happen, but still watched hoping for another outcome.

With respect to the last scene, I guess there were a couple ways to take it:

1. He brought the hooker to a far hotel so he could rob her and start gambling again?

2. He gave up gambling and decided to get his fix through hookers? He was amused getting knifed b/c he actually "felt something". Equating that with "knowing he was going to lose" in gambling

I just took it as he was completely numb and disgusted with the person he'd become. Hence walking through a bad neighborhood, going to a dangerous cathouse and not backing down from a knife-wielding psycho pimp. A big part of him wanted to die.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Prediction Machine is on Seattle to not only cover but to win straight up.

Because that's what's going to happen.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Finally watching the gambler

Well?

Gut Wrenching....but I enjoyed it thoroughly.

Spoiler

Obviously, for any gambler, you've been in his shoes before (hopefully not for that kinda cash. I honestly didn't know what way they would go with the fixed game, but the rest of the movie....you knew what was going to happen, but still watched hoping for another outcome.

With respect to the last scene, I guess there were a couple ways to take it:

1. He brought the hooker to a far hotel so he could rob her and start gambling again?

2. He gave up gambling and decided to get his fix through hookers? He was amused getting knifed b/c he actually "felt something". Equating that with "knowing he was going to lose" in gambling

Spoiler

I just took it as he was completely numb and disgusted with the person he'd become. Hence walking through a bad neighborhood, going to a dangerous cathouse and not backing down from a knife-wielding psycho pimp. A big part of him wanted to die.

read a bunch of IMDB reviews and they centered around how it was just another piece of risky behavior that he needed.

 

[Raider Nation]

Finally watching the gambler

Well?

Gut Wrenching....but I enjoyed it thoroughly.

Spoiler

Obviously, for any gambler, you've been in his shoes before (hopefully not for that kinda cash. I honestly didn't know what way they would go with the fixed game, but the rest of the movie....you knew what was going to happen, but still watched hoping for another outcome.

With respect to the last scene, I guess there were a couple ways to take it:

1. He brought the hooker to a far hotel so he could rob her and start gambling again?

2. He gave up gambling and decided to get his fix through hookers? He was amused getting knifed b/c he actually "felt something". Equating that with "knowing he was going to lose" in gambling

Spoiler

I just took it as he was completely numb and disgusted with the person he'd become. Hence walking through a bad neighborhood, going to a dangerous cathouse and not backing down from a knife-wielding psycho pimp. A big part of him wanted to die.

Spoiler

read a bunch of IMDB reviews and they centered around how it was just another piece of risky behavior that he needed.

I suppose. Those reviewers are just regular peeps like you and me, BTW. I can see how there may be some ambiguity in that scene.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I can't believe no one liked my Jungle Hunt joke. That's some of the best referencing low-ball humor you can find on the entire internet right there.

We move on.

 

[Raider Nation]

I can't believe no one liked my Jungle Hunt joke. That's some of the best referencing low-ball humor you can find on the entire internet right there.

We move on.

I didn't get it.

 

[Raider Nation]

Pretty intense Kings-Sharks game on NBC Sports Network right now if you guys are bored.

 

[ChainsawU]

Just buy whatever number you want on the over before the weekend, like 45, which is available at 5D for -135. That's a good number, hell if it were baseball you would bet a favorite at that number. Then let the public bet it up for you over the weekend. Wind should be the only concern, and even then the public will probably push the number up if you want to play the other side with a chance at a middle. Neutral location, and Seattle's history versus the AFC means that even if they hit their average points per game versus the AFC, you are looking at 30 points from them.

 

[ChainsawU]

The SB under has hit 7 times in the last 12 years by an average margin of 10 points.

The Super Bowl has only gone over 5 times in the last 12 years, but when it has, the average margin has been 15.9 points over the total.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I can't believe no one liked my Jungle Hunt joke. That's some of the best referencing low-ball humor you can find on the entire internet right there.

We move on.

I didn't get it.

Bunch of black dudes gang bang DSp's gf

DSP sees playstation in background of video

Someone says he should have married her

I post Jungle Hunt picture of guy saving chick from black savages /endjoke

I thought I threw a TD there but after further review, pass fell incomplete.

 

[ChainsawU]

The O/U is 85-41-3 (67.5%) in inter-conference games since 2012 (avg total: 45.2).

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Times Archie Manning is shown o1 -160 is a freeroll, right? I mean they HAVE to show him just once, no?

 

[Raider Nation]

Times Archie Manning is shown o1 -160 is a freeroll, right? I mean they HAVE to show him just once, no?

I would personally be afraid that he's in one of those luxury suites with the tinted glass. That would be a rough beat.

 

[lumpy19]

So can someone talk to me here? Pre Conference weekend Denver was going to be a small dog. They win and the money rolls in on them and pushes them to -3 and ends up settling somewhere between 2-3. OK I get it. "The Public" likes Denver.

So if the Public likes Denver that tells me that the Denver O is going to be able to score on the Seattle D and win the game, or at least thats what I think the public narrative is.

The total started at 48.5 quickly went through 48 (an important number) and you can now see 46.5. It's not weather related as far as I can tell. It may be cold but nothing that says winter weather or string winds for sure.

So if the public thinks Denver, and thus the public thinks points why is the total going down?

Seems out of whack to me.

Because the "public" doesn't move lines, money does. So looking at line movement money is coming in on denver and the under. It's basically a pick'em game...just because denver is going to score doesn't mean they are going to blow them out.

 

[[icon]]

Seattle's history versus the AFC means that even if they hit their average points per game versus the AFC, you are looking at 30 points from them.

Do we think Denver's defense right now is "average" compared to the other AFC defenses Seattle has played in this undefined window?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Ronaldo goals over Seahawks TD's +150 at SB.

Maybe the guy meant to hit "-" instead of "+"?

 

[regularguy]

Ronaldo goals over Seahawks TD's +150 at SB.

Maybe the guy meant to hit "-" instead of "+"?

More specifically, it's over Seahawks rushing TD's. SB has SEA -195 to score a rushing TD, fwiw.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Ronaldo goals over Seahawks TD's +150 at SB.

Maybe the guy meant to hit "-" instead of "+"?

More specifically, it's over Seahawks rushing TD's. SB has SEA -195 to score a rushing TD, fwiw.

Correct, thank you.

If it were just TD's, then the line might make sense.

 

[MarshallPlan]

Public may be seeing Denver's 7th-ranked rushing defense (tied with Seattle).

The public isn't betting this game a week before it starts. Nearly all money coming in now is sharp.

 

[regularguy]

Ronaldo goals over Seahawks TD's +150 at SB.

Maybe the guy meant to hit "-" instead of "+"?

More specifically, it's over Seahawks rushing TD's. SB has SEA -195 to score a rushing TD, fwiw.

Correct, thank you.

If it were just TD's, then the line might make sense.

I don't know anything about the Ronaldo side here. He looks to be averaging just over a goal per game, and they don't appear to be heavy favorites on Sunday. Which do you like better? - his chance at scoring 2 or that SEA won't get 1

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Unless we're projecting a hat trick for Ronaldo, I don't see the value in that bet at all.

 

[[icon]]

Public may be seeing Denver's 7th-ranked rushing defense (tied with Seattle).

The public isn't betting this game a week before it starts. Nearly all money coming in now is sharp.

My betting skills are about as sharp as a tube sock and I had my money down last week.

 

[The Ref]

Hey Rud - what do you got on tackles?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Hey Rud - what do you got on tackles?

I'm not sure who the stat crew in a game like this will be.

Will it be the home stadium crew? If so, does that mean Giants or Jets?

Or do they bring in the crew for the "home" team, which in this case is Denver?

If it's possibly the latter option, then I might lean under on a lot of them. But I don't know so not sure I'll play much.

 

[Drifter]

Public may be seeing Denver's 7th-ranked rushing defense (tied with Seattle).

Maybe they are, but that would be faulty logic given the Broncos are always so far ahead. Recipe for beating Denver is don't get behind, burn the clock, and don't make mistakes. Denver's running game IMO is also a reflection of Manning's ability to tear defenses apart early, and Denver just wears them down with screens and draws and then power running. Seattle can't get behind 14-0 in this game, because it might get ugly as other Denver opponents can attest.

Denver's leads are irrelevant when looking at YPC where Denver is still one of the top ranked teams.

 

[Drifter]

Public may be seeing Denver's 7th-ranked rushing defense (tied with Seattle).

The public isn't betting this game a week before it starts. Nearly all money coming in now is sharp.

Most of the Vegas podcasts have said that most of the money that came in early on this one was Public (lot of online dough) and that most Sharps are waiting hoping to pounce on +3. They point to the small size of the 80% of the bets that have come in for Denver.

 

[swirvenirvin]

who are some good writers to follow for NCAAB on twitter dont want ####### who make picks like stuckey or nropp.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Lots of stuff I like tonight, may add another one or two later.

Maple Leafs +107

Red Wings/Flyers OVER 5.5 +105

 

[ChainsawU]

Seattle's history versus the AFC means that even if they hit their average points per game versus the AFC, you are looking at 30 points from them.

Do we think Denver's defense right now is "average" compared to the other AFC defenses Seattle has played in this undefined window?

Since Russell Wilson was drafted, the Seahawks have played 8 games versus the AFC: 4 home and 4 away. They averaged 29.2 points per game at home and 30.5 points per game on the road. One of the road games was a 50-17 win at Buffalo.

In their respective seasons, those eight AFC teams gave up an average of 24.3 points per game. Those eight AFC teams also gave up an average of 2.8 touchdowns per game. This season the Denver Broncos give up an average of 24.0 points per game and an average of 2.8 touchdowns per game.

Among those nine AFC teams, the Broncos rank 6th in points allowed per game and 6th in touchdowns allowed per game. link

 

[ChainsawU]

The game where the Seahawks scored 50 points against Buffalo was actually a neutral site.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

The game where the Seahawks scored 50 points against Buffalo was actually a neutral site.

I mentioned that already in here. It was an abomination of a Toronto game.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Since Russell Wilson was drafted, the Seahawks have played 8 games versus the AFC: 4 home and 4 away. They averaged 29.2 points per game at home and 30.5 points per game on the road. One of the road games was a 50-17 win at Buffalo.

that Buffalo game was in Toronto (neutral site basically).

bump

that Bills defense was one of the worst in history and there was no home-field edge of any sort.

 

[Drifter]

Seattle's history versus the AFC means that even if they hit their average points per game versus the AFC, you are looking at 30 points from them.

Do we think Denver's defense right now is "average" compared to the other AFC defenses Seattle has played in this undefined window?

Since Russell Wilson was drafted, the Seahawks have played 8 games versus the AFC: 4 home and 4 away. They averaged 29.2 points per game at home and 30.5 points per game on the road. One of the road games was a 50-17 win at Buffalo.

In their respective seasons, those eight AFC teams gave up an average of 24.3 points per game. Those eight AFC teams also gave up an average of 2.8 touchdowns per game. This season the Denver Broncos give up an average of 24.0 points per game and an average of 2.8 touchdowns per game.

Among those nine AFC teams, the Broncos rank 6th in points allowed per game and 6th in touchdowns allowed per game. link

That average against the AFC drops 6 pts when you take out the bottom dwelling defenses on that list - Colts, Jags, Bills

 

[ChainsawU]

The Broncos gave up more points per game (24.0, 27.4 away) than the Colts did this year (23.5, 23.6 away).

 

[Drifter]

The Broncos gave up more points per game (24.0, 27.4 away) than the Colts did this year (23.5, 23.6 away).

Playing with significantly larger leads.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

This years playoffs (most recent & most important games) they are both around 16 points per game given up.

 

[ChainsawU]

This years playoffs (most recent & most important games) they are both around 16 points per game given up.

I still disagree with you on this because those games were played at home. Denver gives up six more points per game on the road than they do at home. And you already know about Seattle's HFA.

 

[Frostillicus]

Atkins (nd) Under 16.5p -135

 

[Frostillicus]

Missouri/Arkansas Over 149.5

 

[Frostillicus]

Brown over 18.5p -120

Brown over 2.5 made 3s -120

Clarkson over 17.5p -120

Harris (uva) over 2 made 3s -120

Randle Under 16.5 pts -120

O'Bryant under 7.5 rebs -140

Kentucky -3.5

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I'm hoping Dodds is gonna post his SB props.

 

[Frostillicus]

Michigan State/Iowa Under 149.5