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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

regularguy said:
Cool. It feels like the margin of error is so much tighter on those low # props, but I'm not speaking from much experience.
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I love "small number" props, because the lines are so easy to get wrong. If you have an o/u 4.5 FTM, and you have the player averaging 3.9, that's a HUGE advantage.

 
I have Ads class and then an International Marketing Exam, but just noticed that Miami and Golden State play tonight at 9:30. I'll be home in time. Action junkie straight to the brain type ####. :excited:

 
Possible arbitrary statistic, but when the Warriors allow 95 or more points this season:

SU: 11-17 (-2.25, 39.3%)

ATS: 5-21-2 (-4.38, 19.2%) avg line: -2.1

O/U: 19-8-1 (11.34, 70.4%) avg total: 204.2

 
When the Warriors allow less than 95 points:

SU: 20-4 (12.83, 83.3%)

ATS: 18-6-0 (5.77, 75.0%) avg line: -7.1

O/U: 1-22-1 (-17.50, 4.3%) avg total: 204.1

 
L5 years going into the ASB:

Heat: Warriors:5-0 SU 4-1 SU4-1 ATS (avg line -0.7) 4-1 ATS (avg line 0.6)O/U 1-4 (avg tot 199.1) O/U 3-1-1 (avg tot 212.2)I said :censored: it like a total junkie and took each team total over. And the Heat ML. The over is not sharp! It only hits 41.7% of the time in Warriors home games, but both of these teams have been strong going into the break, and are looking at five and six days of rest before their next game.

Heat 100/107
Heat o101 110/100
Warriors o102 110/100

 
Fair (cuse) Under 15pts -120
Ennis (cuse) Under 11.5pts -130
Patterson (pitt) Under 15pts -120
Zanna (pitt) Under 20.5 p+r -120

Napier (uconn) Over 17.5pts -110

Bell (nova) Over 17.5pts -130
Pinkston (nova) Over 13.5pts -120
Arcidiacono (nova) Over 9pts -120

Parker (duke) Over 8.5 rebs -130

 
Frostillicus said:
Fair (cuse) Under 15pts -120

Ennis (cuse) Under 11.5pts -130

Patterson (pitt) Under 15pts -120

Zanna (pitt) Under 20.5 p+r -120

Napier (uconn) Over 17.5pts -110

Bell (nova) Over 17.5pts -130

Pinkston (nova) Over 13.5pts -120

Arcidiacono (nova) Over 9pts -120

Parker (duke) Over 8.5 rebs -130
Click to expand...
Wish I could get more down on this

thanks for posting

 
Mr.Pack said:
Can someone post Baseball Futures Odds for this coming year and from what book they are from?

TIA
Click to expand...
5 dimes

MLB World SeriesSat 3/22 1:00PM Los Angeles Dodgers +700 St. Louis Cardinals +850 Detroit Tigers +900 Boston Red Sox +1050 Tampa Bay Rays +1050 Washington Nationals +1200 New York Yankees +1300 Atlanta Braves +1800 Texas Rangers +1800 Cincinnati Reds +2000 Los Angeles Angels +2000 Oakland Athletics +2000 Kansas City Royals +2400 San Francisco Giants +2500 Seattle Mariners +2500 Pittsburgh Pirates +3000 Baltimore Orioles +4000 Philadelphia Phillies +4000 Toronto Blue Jays +4000 Cleveland Indians +4750 Arizona Diamondbacks +5000 San Diego Padres +6250 Chicago White Sox +6600 Chicago Cubs +7500 Colorado Rockies +8000 Milwaukee Brewers +8000 New York Mets +8500 Minnesota Twins +12500 Miami Marlins +20000 Houston Astros +50000

MLB National League PennantSat 3/22 1:00PM Los Angeles Dodgers +280 St. Louis Cardinals +485 Washington Nationals +500 Atlanta Braves +800 Cincinnati Reds +850 San Francisco Giants +1050 Pittsburgh Pirates +1300 Philadelphia Phillies +1700 Arizona Diamondbacks +2000 San Diego Padres +2800 Chicago Cubs +3000 Colorado Rockies +3000 Milwaukee Brewers +3000 New York Mets +3200 Miami Marlins +5500
MLB American League PennantSat 3/22 1:00PM Detroit Tigers +400 Boston Red Sox +550 New York Yankees +625 Texas Rangers +750 Los Angeles Angels +800 Tampa Bay Rays +800 Oakland Athletics +900 Seattle Mariners +1200 Baltimore Orioles +1700 Kansas City Royals +1700 Toronto Blue Jays +1800 Cleveland Indians +2000 Chicago White Sox +2500 Minnesota Twins +5000 Houston Astros +12500
MLB World Series Matchup

Sat 3/22 1:00PM Los Angeles Dodgers vs Detroit Tigers +2200 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox +2650 Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees +2975 St. Louis Cardinals vs Detroit Tigers +3325 Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers +3425 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles Angels +3500 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Texas Rangers +3525 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays +3750 St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox +4000 St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees +4000 Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox +4100 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Oakland Athletics +4175 Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees +4200 St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers +5000 Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers +5000 Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers +5250 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners +5500 Cincinnati Reds vs Detroit Tigers +5550 St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels +5650 St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays +5650 Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels +5800 Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays +5800 St. Louis Cardinals vs Oakland Athletics +6000 Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox +6300 Washington Nationals vs Oakland Athletics +6450 Cincinnati Reds vs Boston Red Sox +6650 San Francisco Giants vs Detroit Tigers +6750 Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees +7100 Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees +7500 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles +7900 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals +7900 San Francisco Giants vs Boston Red Sox +8100 St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners +8200 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers +8300 Atlanta Braves vs Texas Rangers +8400 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays +8400 Washington Nationals vs Seattle Mariners +8500 Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers +8800 Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels +8900 Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay Rays +8900 San Francisco Giants vs New York Yankees +9100 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cleveland Indians +9300 Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels +9400 Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays +9400 Atlanta Braves vs Oakland Athletics +9900 Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees +10000 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox +10000 Cincinnati Reds vs Oakland Athletics +10400 San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers +10700 Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers +11100 Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees +11300 San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Angels +11400 San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay Rays +11400 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox +11500 Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles +11500 St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles +11900 St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals +11900 Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals +12300 San Francisco Giants vs Oakland Athletics +12600 St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays +12600 Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays +12900 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Detroit Tigers +13000 Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners +13000 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Texas Rangers +13300 Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox +13400 Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Indians +13500 Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners +13700 St. Louis Cardinals vs Cleveland Indians +13900 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Angels +14100 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Tampa Bay Rays +14100 Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees +15000 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Boston Red Sox +15600 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics +15600 San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners +16600 St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago White Sox +17300 Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers +17700 Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox +17800 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays +18500 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers +18500 Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles +18800 Atlanta Braves vs Kansas City Royals +18800 Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Angels +18800 Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays +18800 Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles +19800 Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals +19800 Atlanta Braves vs Toronto Blue Jays +19900 Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers +19900 Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers +19900 Milwaukee Brewers vs Detroit Tigers +19900 San Diego Padres vs Detroit Tigers +19900 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners +20500 Cincinnati Reds vs Toronto Blue Jays +21000 New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers +21000 Philadelphia Phillies vs Oakland Athletics +21000 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels +22000 Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Indians +22000 Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Indians +23000 Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox +24000 Colorado Rockies vs Boston Red Sox +24000 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins +24000 Milwaukee Brewers vs Boston Red Sox +24000 San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox +24000 San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles +24000 San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals +24000 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics +24500 New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox +25500 San Francisco Giants vs Toronto Blue Jays +25500 Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees +27000 Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees +27000 Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Yankees +27000 San Diego Padres vs New York Yankees +27000 Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox +27500 Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners +27500 San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Indians +28000 Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox +28500 New York Mets vs New York Yankees +28500 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles +29500 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals +29500 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays +31500 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners +32000 Chicago Cubs vs Texas Rangers +32000 Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers +32000 Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers +32000 San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers +32000 Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels +33500 Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays +33500 Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels +33500 Colorado Rockies vs Tampa Bay Rays +33500 Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels +33500 Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays +33500 San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels +33500 San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays +33500 New York Mets vs Texas Rangers +34000 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Indians +34500 San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox +35000 New York Mets vs Los Angeles Angels +36000 New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays +36000 St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins +36000 Miami Marlins vs Detroit Tigers +36500 Washington Nationals vs Minnesota Twins +37000 Chicago Cubs vs Oakland Athletics +37500 Colorado Rockies vs Oakland Athletics +37500 Milwaukee Brewers vs Oakland Athletics +37500 San Diego Padres vs Oakland Athletics +37500 New York Mets vs Oakland Athletics +39500 Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles +40000 Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals +40000 Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays +42000 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox +43000 Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox +44000 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Baltimore Orioles +46500 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Kansas City Royals +46500 Philadelphia Phillies vs Cleveland Indians +46500 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Toronto Blue Jays +49000 Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners +49000 Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners +49000 Milwaukee Brewers vs Seattle Mariners +49000 San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners +49000 Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees +49500 New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners +52000 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Indians +54000 Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins +57000 Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers +58000 Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox +58000 Cincinnati Reds vs Minnesota Twins +59000 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros +62000 Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Angels +62000 Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays +62000 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago White Sox +67000 Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics +68000 Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians +70000 Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles +72000 Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals +72000 Colorado Rockies vs Baltimore Orioles +72000 Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals +72000 Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles +72000 Milwaukee Brewers vs Kansas City Royals +72000 San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles +72000 San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals +72000 San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins +72000 Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays +76000 Colorado Rockies vs Toronto Blue Jays +76000 Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays +76000 New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles +76000 New York Mets vs Kansas City Royals +76000 San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays +76000 Milwaukee Brewers vs Cleveland Indians +80000 New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays +80000 Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Indians +84000 San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Indians +84000 New York Mets vs Cleveland Indians +89000 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins +89000 Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners +90000 St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros +93000 Washington Nationals vs Houston Astros +96000 Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox +102500 Colorado Rockies vs Chicago White Sox +102500 Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox +102500 San Diego Padres vs Chicago White Sox +102500 New York Mets vs Chicago White Sox +110000 Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins +120000 Miami Marlins vs Baltimore Orioles +132500 Miami Marlins vs Kansas City Royals +132500 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins +140000 Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays +140000 Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros +147500 Cincinnati Reds vs Houston Astros +155000 Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Indians +155000 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros +180000 San Francisco Giants vs Houston Astros +185000 Miami Marlins vs Chicago White Sox +190000 Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins +220000 Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins +220000 Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins +220000 San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins +220000 New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins +230000 Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros +310000 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Houston Astros +370000 Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins +400000 Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros +570000 Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros +570000 Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros +570000 San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros +570000 New York Mets vs Houston Astros +600000 Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros +999999

 
Chalky, but I like the Doyers and the Tigers at first glance, simply because their divisions don't look like they're going to offer much (if any) resistance to them walking into the playoffs.

And Oakland. :homer:

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Chalky, but I like the Doyers and the Tigers at first glance, simply because their divisions don't look like they're going to offer much (if any) resistance to them walking into the playoffs.

And Oakland. :homer:
Click to expand...
dont forget tigers only won division by 1 game last yr and clev made the wild card game. Tigers didnt do much to improve and gave away Fister for nothing for some ####### reason. Lost Peralta, Benoit, Infante, Prince, Fister

Gained Nathan, Kinsler, and some bums

 
got_nugs said:
Can Canada or US win the mens gold? For some reason last night the Bordeaux I was drinking told me to bet them both.
Click to expand...
Canada is the favorite and has won 2 of the last 3 Olympic tournaments, so I'm pretty sure they can

USA is a good sleeper/value pick. They have the players to pull it off but aren't expected to make it to the finals.

The problem with both teams is neither has ever had much success in the Olympics when they play in Europe/Asia on the bigger ice surface.

 
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I tail alot during hoops season and don't post much as a result, but I am playing Cleveland +8 tonight in Detroit. They look worlds better since firing the GM. Not sure how that is possible but Bennett is playing like the Cavs thought he could and they are acually playing with some focus and intensity.

GLTA

AB

 
swirvenirvin said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Chalky, but I like the Doyers and the Tigers at first glance, simply because their divisions don't look like they're going to offer much (if any) resistance to them walking into the playoffs.

And Oakland. :homer:
Click to expand...
dont forget tigers only won division by 1 game last yr and clev made the wild card game. Tigers didnt do much to improve and gave away Fister for nothing for some ####### reason. Lost Peralta, Benoit, Infante, Prince, Fister

Gained Nathan, Kinsler, and some bums
Click to expand...
Clevo lost Kazmir and presumably Ubaldo too. That's 5.7 WAR combined, with nothing coming in.

I hate the Fister trade, but Detroit's position-player moves are going to net them some defense that's going to offset what they lose in offense.

 
ChainsawU said:
L5 years going into the ASB:

Heat: Warriors:5-0 SU 4-1 SU4-1 ATS (avg line -0.7) 4-1 ATS (avg line 0.6)O/U 1-4 (avg tot 199.1) O/U 3-1-1 (avg tot 212.2)I said :censored: it like a total junkie and took each team total over. And the Heat ML. The over is not sharp! It only hits 41.7% of the time in Warriors home games, but both of these teams have been strong going into the break, and are looking at five and six days of rest before their next game.

Heat 100/107

Heat o101 110/100

Warriors o102 110/100
Click to expand...
As expected Bogut is sitting this one out. I'll post as soon as DWade is confirmed in/out.

I'm riding with Indy/Dallas under 196.5 as well as a few of the plays posted in here. I'll likely add to the later games, esp once I hear about Wade.

just to let you know what i'm looking into:

Rockets/Wiz over

Philly/Utah under

Minny/Denver over

SA

Pelicans

few different Heat/GS plays

haven't played any of these yet.

 
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Aaron Rudnicki said:
got_nugs said:
Can Canada or US win the mens gold? For some reason last night the Bordeaux I was drinking told me to bet them both.
Click to expand...
Canada is the favorite and has won 2 of the last 3 Olympic tournaments, so I'm pretty sure they can

USA is a good sleeper/value pick. They have the players to pull it off but aren't expected to make it to the finals.

The problem with both teams is neither has ever had much success in the Olympics when they play in Europe/Asia on the bigger ice surface.
Click to expand...
:blush: I blame Alan Thicke.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Chalky, but I like the Doyers and the Tigers at first glance, simply because their divisions don't look like they're going to offer much (if any) resistance to them walking into the playoffs.

And Oakland. :homer:
Click to expand...
dont forget tigers only won division by 1 game last yr and clev made the wild card game. Tigers didnt do much to improve and gave away Fister for nothing for some ####### reason. Lost Peralta, Benoit, Infante, Prince, Fister

Gained Nathan, Kinsler, and some bums
Click to expand...
Tigers won that division by a good margin. They took the division lead on July 3rd and averaged being up six games from that day, until the end of the season. When they clinched they were up five games, and lost five of their last seven while Cleveland won ten straight or something crazy. That division was not that close. Cleveland is going to regress badly, you are either betting the Royals to win the division, or the Tigers. Those are the only two options IMO.

 
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I'm not watching anymore college hoops tonight. Every time I switch over my(our) under guys have a 12 rebound/18 point possession and I feel like it's my bad for the jinx.

Back to the NBA games...where I ended up playing every one of those leans I posted for .25 unit aside from the Indy which was a full one.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
swirvenirvin said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Chalky, but I like the Doyers and the Tigers at first glance, simply because their divisions don't look like they're going to offer much (if any) resistance to them walking into the playoffs.

And Oakland. :homer:
Click to expand...
dont forget tigers only won division by 1 game last yr and clev made the wild card game. Tigers didnt do much to improve and gave away Fister for nothing for some ####### reason. Lost Peralta, Benoit, Infante, Prince, Fister

Gained Nathan, Kinsler, and some bums
Click to expand...
Tigers won that division by a good margin. They took the division lead on July 3rd and averaged being up six games from that day, until the end of the season. When they clinched they were up five games, and lost five of their last seven while Cleveland won ten straight or something crazy. That division was not that close. Cleveland is going to regress badly, you are either betting the Royals to win the division, or the Tigers. Those are the only two options IMO.
Click to expand...
pretty good breakdown from the freep as far as new additions and subtractions for Al central

http://www.freep.com/article/20140212/SPORTS02/302120115/detroit-tigers-al-central

 
New rule (it's my first year working on these with my brother so we are constantly tweaking rules): No more point overs when the line is really high (like over 15). Too much can go wrong, including being on the right side of a blowout. Exceptions: vs. good teams with terrible defenses (Iowa State, for example).

 
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