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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (12 Viewers)

Raider Nation said:
Sometimes it's good to go through your betting history to see what you're doing right and what you're doing wrong. In a nutshell, I gotta stop live betting. I'm getting killed. I would have roughly $2,800 more in my SB account right now if I never did live betting. Bets that I make initially don't look good, so I hedge on the other team, and the team I liked in the first place comes back to win. Just giving money away. :no:

I have to pretend live betting doesn't even exist.
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Raider Nation said:
NOW I'm done live-betting!

:oldunsure:
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Raider Nation said:
Thank God for live betting.
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Raider Nation said:
comfortably numb said:
Raider Nation said:
Thank God for live betting.
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Lol
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No joke, mang. I was able to completely buy out of the $1,725 I had on the Blackhawks.

Bout time live betting paid off. Just happy they kept changing the odds.... you can only win $375 at each number.
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Raider Nation said:
Did someone mention live betting?

:coffee:
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:loco:

 
Honestly, I have stopped live betting baseball. That constituted about 90% of what I was getting killed live betting on. It's just too volatile. You can be up 3 runs one second, then you turn around ten minutes later and you're down 4 runs. Hockey and football seem to be a little more live betting-friendly.

 
Merton Hanks said:
modogg said:
Raider Nation said:
Ehhh, nevermind. TAMU's D is a joke.
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:goodposting: without a doubt, because... i pounded TAMU -3.5 -140 during the last intermission :bag: . I made money on the 3 games earlier, Islanders, and likely the Flyers, and it will all go poof soon
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Mo, in the years that I've been lurking, I've come to one definite conclusion. You really need to stop live betting. Live betting isn't for everyone, hell, it isn't for most people. One of the most dangerous things that we can do in life is make a decision based purely on sheer emotion. More mistakes are made in personal relationships, in the workplace, in wagering, etc. when we don't take the time to rationally look/think things through and be able to make decision based on facts or data. Live betting is the polar opposite of this scenario. It is a spur of the moment, flow of the game type thing where you get sucked in time and time again. I realize there are guys that are exceptionally strong from a numbers perspective or guys that can skillfully create +ev middle opportunities and such, but with all due respect (please don't be offended), you aren't one of them. I just hate to see good guys get burned time and time again by -ev situations that Vegas was built from. You are good at MMA. You almost always make money on the UFC cads, then piss it all away and then some on subpar bets. Good luck buddy.
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Raider Nation said:
Good research, but I fear you may have missed the joke.
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I suck at live betting. Stopped completely after reviewing my detailed records. This will say what I think a lot more eloquently.

 
tjnc09 said:
Merton Hanks said:
modogg said:
Raider Nation said:
Ehhh, nevermind. TAMU's D is a joke.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: without a doubt, because... i pounded TAMU -3.5 -140 during the last intermission :bag: . I made money on the 3 games earlier, Islanders, and likely the Flyers, and it will all go poof soon
Click to expand...
Mo, in the years that I've been lurking, I've come to one definite conclusion. You really need to stop live betting. Live betting isn't for everyone, hell, it isn't for most people. One of the most dangerous things that we can do in life is make a decision based purely on sheer emotion. More mistakes are made in personal relationships, in the workplace, in wagering, etc. when we don't take the time to rationally look/think things through and be able to make decision based on facts or data. Live betting is the polar opposite of this scenario. It is a spur of the moment, flow of the game type thing where you get sucked in time and time again. I realize there are guys that are exceptionally strong from a numbers perspective or guys that can skillfully create +ev middle opportunities and such, but with all due respect (please don't be offended), you aren't one of them. I just hate to see good guys get burned time and time again by -ev situations that Vegas was built from. You are good at MMA. You almost always make money on the UFC cads, then piss it all away and then some on subpar bets. Good luck buddy.
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Raider Nation said:
Good research, but I fear you may have missed the joke.
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I suck at live betting. Stopped completely after reviewing my detailed records. This will say what I think a lot more eloquently.
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Yeah, Goo always makes sense. I don't always heed good advice though. :(

 
Raider Nation said:
got_nugs said:
Took a bit of SJ +300 action, just in case
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Well done! Tell me you put at least a hundo on it.
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A hundo exactly. Also been betting the over in this basketball game since the 1st quarter. That harden miss to push this to ot gave me schwingdong. With the hockey good end to a bad weekend.

I want to bet Atlanta Hawks in the series. They're up 1-0 with a road win as a dog. Price about +155. How does that number change if they lose? Win?

 
If you guys are really into the spirit of Chalk Parlay Monday, the Mariners probably should be in there. King Felix vs. the Houston bats is not a fair fight. The problem is, Seattle can't score either. So why not take the under? Well, it's 6.5. An error here or there, or the Seattle bats wake up, and it could get ugly. If you take the M's, you just gotta hope they can hang a few runs before Felix reaches his pitch limit.

Another game which jumped out at me is SF @ COL. Both pitchers are absolutely terrible. Unfortunately, the total is 10.5 (not surprisingly), and the Giants tend to go ice cold with the bats fairly often. Not sure what to do with this one, if anything.

Looking hard at Darvish in Oakland. The price (-135) is reasonable, but the Rangers are another team with inconsistent sticks.

 
@PortlandPolice: We don't normally endorse theft, but stealing 1 from the @HoustonRockets is just fine with us @trailblazers #RipCity #PORvsHOU #NBAPlayoffs

 
NHL totals were two overs and two pushes yesterday. Gonna RR all of the overs. Not real thrilled about DAL-ANA over though.

Pens-CBJ 05.5 I really like though.

 
Bal/Bos u 8.5 - 120

ATL Hawks - series price of +180. The Pacers are so out of sink here it won't surprise me if ATL wins Game 2 as well.

GLTA
AB

 
Good lean RNate...I touched this last night at 9, in a parlay and again this morning at 8.5. Seemed like everyone else was on the under, including the line dropping

 
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Straily 2-0 the next game (3-0 team record) after pitching 4 innings or less with 2 ER in 20.1 IP (v the Cubs, Jays, and Tigers). Darvish 0-6 L6 (team's record) versus the A's and five dudes on the A's - in a minimum of 10 AB - bat .300 or better against him. Rangers lost both games that Darvish started at Oakland by a total of 13 runs. The only thing that is ####### me up is that Straily's ERA on 4 days of rest is 2 points higher than when he is on 5 days. To a lesser extent, it is G1 of the series and the umpire hasnt been named yet.

Really wanted Oakland ML, -1.5, and o3 since they are all at + numbers and I'd get to actually watch the game.

 
ChainsawU said:
Straily 2-0 the next game (3-0 team record) after pitching 4 innings or less with 2 ER in 20.1 IP (v the Cubs, Jays, and Tigers). Darvish 0-6 L6 (team's record) versus the A's and five dudes on the A's - in a minimum of 10 AB - bat .300 or better against him. Rangers lost both games that Darvish started at Oakland by a total of 13 runs. The only thing that is ####### me up is that Straily's ERA on 4 days of rest is 2 points higher than when he is on 5 days. To a lesser extent, it is G1 of the series and the umpire hasnt been named yet.

Really wanted Oakland ML, -1.5, and o3 since they are all at + numbers and I'd get to actually watch the game.
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I saw something this morning or on the current baseball telecast that Oakland is the only team in the majors that are undefeated vs Yu, thought that was interesting.

 
got_nugs said:
ChainsawU said:
Straily 2-0 the next game (3-0 team record) after pitching 4 innings or less with 2 ER in 20.1 IP (v the Cubs, Jays, and Tigers). Darvish 0-6 L6 (team's record) versus the A's and five dudes on the A's - in a minimum of 10 AB - bat .300 or better against him. Rangers lost both games that Darvish started at Oakland by a total of 13 runs. The only thing that is ####### me up is that Straily's ERA on 4 days of rest is 2 points higher than when he is on 5 days. To a lesser extent, it is G1 of the series and the umpire hasnt been named yet.

Really wanted Oakland ML, -1.5, and o3 since they are all at + numbers and I'd get to actually watch the game.
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I saw something this morning or on the current baseball telecast that Oakland is the only team in the majors that are undefeated vs Yu, thought that was interesting.
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Yep. They worked him for a lot of walks last year (12 in 24 IP) and took him deep 5 times.

It should be noted though that Darvish was a hard-luck loser in his last start in Arlington against Oakland last year. 7 IP, 4H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K.

 
I always take a screenshot of the odds at SB before I go to bed. Couple of significant moves:

White Sox/Tigers were 8 u -120. They are now 8.5 o -120.

Royals/Indians were 8 u -120. They are now 8.5 o -115.

Padres/Brewers moved from 7.5 to 8.

I just enjoy tracking line moves. Do with that information what you will.

 
Raider Nation said:
I always take a screenshot of the odds at SB before I go to bed. Couple of significant moves:

White Sox/Tigers were 8 u -120. They are now 8.5 o -120.

Royals/Indians were 8 u -120. They are now 8.5 o -115.

Padres/Brewers moved from 7.5 to 8.

I just enjoy tracking line moves. Do with that information what you will.
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http://www.bettingtalk.com/odds/lines.php

just go there and click on any game and you can see the line history. Much easier than taking screenshots.

 
The Mariners are stacked to hit righties, so Keuchel, even though he sucks, might pose some problems.

This might be a good spot for the 2H option at RB. You still get a lot of Felix in all likelihood, and probably a lot less of Keuchel and a lot more of Houston's righty-dominant bully. Their only lefty is Raul Valdes, who just got called up.

It's -170 which is still steep, but a bit better than -220 or whatever the full-game ML is.

 
lumpy19 said:
Raider Nation said:
I always take a screenshot of the odds at SB before I go to bed. Couple of significant moves:

White Sox/Tigers were 8 u -120. They are now 8.5 o -120.

Royals/Indians were 8 u -120. They are now 8.5 o -115.

Padres/Brewers moved from 7.5 to 8.

I just enjoy tracking line moves. Do with that information what you will.
Click to expand...
http://www.bettingtalk.com/odds/lines.php

just go there and click on any game and you can see the line history. Much easier than taking screenshots.
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SB isn't there, though.

Are we on your boy Leake tonight, lump?

 
Good Posting Judge said:
The Mariners are stacked to hit righties, so Keuchel, even though he sucks, might pose some problems.

This might be a good spot for the 2H option at RB. You still get a lot of Felix in all likelihood, and probably a lot less of Keuchel and a lot more of Houston's righty-dominant bully. Their only lefty is Raul Valdes, who just got called up.

It's -170 which is still steep, but a bit better than -220 or whatever the full-game ML is.
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So u6.5 might be a good play after all.

 
lumpy19 said:
Raider Nation said:
I always take a screenshot of the odds at SB before I go to bed. Couple of significant moves:

White Sox/Tigers were 8 u -120. They are now 8.5 o -120.

Royals/Indians were 8 u -120. They are now 8.5 o -115.

Padres/Brewers moved from 7.5 to 8.

I just enjoy tracking line moves. Do with that information what you will.
Click to expand...
http://www.bettingtalk.com/odds/lines.php

just go there and click on any game and you can see the line history. Much easier than taking screenshots.
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SBR Is another good one

 
I try not to be a slave to line moves. Just interesting to watch them. If you followed them blindly, you would have been all over the under in this O's/Sox game.

 
Raider Nation said:
JaxBill said:
NHL totals were two overs and two pushes yesterday. Gonna RR all of the overs. Not real thrilled about DAL-ANA over though.

Pens-CBJ 05.5 I really like though.
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Does CBJ tend to play tighter defensively at home? I'm wondering why the under is -130.
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Bobrovsky had home/road GAA of 2.31/2.45 so I think they're pretty similar.

Pens defense has been pretty lax and they'll have to keep up the offense pressure regardless of score.

 
Frostillicus said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Parker poss. staying at Duke is scary, you know K is going to be working him to come back and take another shot with the class they have coming in.

Embiid's back injury is scary too.

Also that Wiggins is a swing guy means he's not going to be a bad fit for some team, the way a PG or a true C like Embiid might be.

That said, plenty of time for things to change. Randle could rally. Embiid's back might check out. ####, look at the last draft.
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Parker coming back would scare me, but I think you have Randle, Embiid, and Parker all with an equal chance and after workouts somebody like Randle or Dante Exum could even sneak up there. I'd consider it at even money so I love it at +250.

Some mocks:

Draft Express: Wiggins

NBADraft.net: Parker

Bleacher Report: Parker

CBS: Wiggins (x3)

ESPN: Wiggins/Parker depending on who wins the pick

HoopsHype: Parker

Sporting News: Parker

myNBADraft.com: Wiggins

NBADraftroom.com: Parker

SBNation: Wiggins

I haven't heard of a lot of these sites so I have no idea how reputable they might be, but that's 6 Wiggins and 6 Parker. I dunno. I just think +250 is crazy.
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"...after polling 30 NBA executives shortly after all three players had officially declared for the draft -- from numerous GMs to player personnel guys and NBA scouts -- you might be surprised at the results of who they would choose No. 1 overall:"

Jabari Parker: 17 votes

Joel Embiid: 8 votes

Andrew Wiggins: 5 votes

 
Raider Nation said:
got_nugs said:
So yu/king/Obal-Bos/Ocol-sf?

IN!
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nugaroo, I only *OFFICIALLY* played the bolded one so far. Saw provided good data to lay off the Yu play.

I'm gonna have a hard time not playing King Felix though. He should absolutely dominate HOU.
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It's too late. You're on the hook for this money. I also added the CBJ/PITT over cause I saw you made a post about it. Don't eff this up, I need this.

Good luck!

;) j/k but seriously lets get an RN winner parlay going. WE'RE GOING STREAKING!

 
Raider Nation said:
Blackhawks -175?

The price sucks, but they CAN'T lose this game... can they? If so, the season is effectively over.
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not worth that price

Seabrook out stings and Miller is heating up. Two evenly matched teams and I don't think home ice makes a huge difference.

 
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