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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

Kings are about -150 to win game 1 and about -170 to win the series.

RB has this prop available (or at least they did last night when I bet it):

Kings win Game 1 AND win series - EV

Is this a good bet? I mean the two outcomes are correlated so I'm guessing most books wouldn't let you parlay the two together. if they win game 1, their odds of winning the series are going to go way up. If they lose game 1, then you're screwed on this bet but you can put another bet on them to win the series at a much better price at that point without having to lay the -170 juice.

I'm already sitting on Rangers and Kings futures. I win twice as much if the Rangers win, but I expect the Kings to take it so I'm looking for ways to bet LA without eating into too many potential winnings if it doesn't work out that way.

 
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Vulgaris likes the spurs too, indirectly said spurs win the series 60% of the time but Vegas opened with the line about even suggesting Miami was slightly better given the home court lean on the line. He's probably considered the best nba bettor ever.

I'm going with the Heat, if they lose gm1 I'm doubling down, gm2 I'll hit it again.

I wear Lebron undies so buyer beware.

 
Starters making their first start at Coors Field this season are 3-6 SU and 8-1 O/U with an average of 15 ±3.5 runs scored in those games link. Starters making their first start at Coors versus Jorge De La Rosa are 4-19 SU (1-13 L14) and 12-10-1 O/U (2-3 L5) link. The O/U kind of falls off with De La Rosa pitching.

The Diamondbacks are 0-10 SU at Coors versus Jorge De La Rosa with an average margin of victory (loss) of -4.6 ±3.0 in those ten games link. Going back to last season, De La Rosa looks okay on six+ days of rest. The last time he pitched on six days at home he threw 6.0 IP with 0 ER versus the Yankees on May 7, 2013.

 
Since 2004 the Cardinals have been shut out twice in a row five times. All five subsequent games occurred away between 2010-2013, and the Cards went 0-5 by an average score of 2.0 to 6.4. The Cards scored exactly one run in each of those L3 games and lost by an average margin of six runs. Since 2013, the Cards are 0-4 SU at home after being shut out at home. Shields is 21-7 SU since 2013 on four days of rest and he is 3-0 SU with this umpire, most recently throwing 8.0 IP with 4H, 1ER, 12K, and 2BB at Houston on Apr 17.

 
Sure thing, brohan. The thing is, Shields has given up two home runs in B2B starts seven times. And then in the seven subsequent games he gave up 1.29 ±0.76 home runs. Plus, he gets a lot of run support. Shields is 6-0 away L6 with average run support of 7.5 ±1.4 runs per game. There are varying opinions on run support. But Garcia has allowed two home runs in each of his two home starts. I know the KC is last in the MLB in homers (25) but it's kind of like, who do you trust more. And the Royals have been getting runs in Shields' road starts. Hopefully Garcia will walk a few dudes, too.

Royals +116

Royals Over 3½ +100

Over 7 -105

 
Conn Smythe talk:

Gaborik is +1800 at SB (he's +700 at BV)

I can't even bet this with my limits at SB as my max win is $10 and the minimum bet is $1, but seems like it might be worth a shot at that price. He's got 12 goals, which is 3 more than anyone else in the playoffs thus far and going against his former team in the finals so I assume he'll get plenty of media attention.

I'm playing Kopitar (+400 at BV). He's already put up 24 points with a +9 and is playing shutdown defense as well.

Doughty has a shot, but I don't think he's worth the price (+400). Quick (+550) might steal it too if the final is a goalie duel, but it seems like he lost some momentum with the way the last series ended.

Lundqvist is a huge favorite if the Rangers can win the series. I guess if you like the Rangers in the series, taking him at +250 or so is better than betting taking the team at +150 or whatever they are. I have a little on him from the last round but not adding any.

 
You know what, too, is that I haven't seen anyone mentioning the D-Backs 0-10 versus Jorge, and the margin of victory adds up to -1.6 at worst in those ten games. So maybe one of those "build your own -1 line" with the Rockies would be good.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Conn Smythe talk:

Gaborik is +1800 at SB (he's +700 at BV)

I can't even bet this with my limits at SB as my max win is $10 and the minimum bet is $1, but seems like it might be worth a shot at that price. He's got 12 goals, which is 3 more than anyone else in the playoffs thus far and going against his former team in the finals so I assume he'll get plenty of media attention.

I'm playing Kopitar (+400 at BV). He's already put up 24 points with a +9 and is playing shutdown defense as well.

Doughty has a shot, but I don't think he's worth the price (+400). Quick (+550) might steal it too if the final is a goalie duel, but it seems like he lost some momentum with the way the last series ended.

Lundqvist is a huge favorite if the Rangers can win the series. I guess if you like the Rangers in the series, taking him at +250 or so is better than betting taking the team at +150 or whatever they are. I have a little on him from the last round but not adding any.
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I have 300/900 on Lundqvist. I haven't fully decided what I'm going to do with LA, but I think I'm going to take a big shot on Doughty, with maybe a couple hundred sprinkled on Kopitar. 3 man race IMO.

Let me know if you want Gaborik +1800, I can get as much as you need.

 
TheGooRoo said:
Let me know if you want Gaborik +1800, I can get as much as you need.
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I think they already moved it down to +1500. I got a little on him through a friend.

I agree it looks like a 3-man race, but a couple shutouts could probably get Quick back in it and a couple GWGs would be huge for Gaborik too probably.

my impression was that not many defensemen have won this award. Looking at the history: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conn_Smythe_Trophy

I see just 1 since the lockout (Niedermayer) and just 4 since Leetch and the Rangers won in 1994.

I think Kopitar and Quick are most deserving right now but Doughy is very close for sure.

EDIT: I played some on Doughty too. Kopitar has just 5 goals and there are a lot of Kings forwards with nice point totals. Doughty does stand out a bit more on the blueline.

 
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Has anyone had experience using a Matchbook or Pinnacle account (registered to someone outside US) using an US IP address?

 
tjnc09 said:
Has anyone had experience using a Matchbook or Pinnacle account (registered to someone outside US) using an US IP address?
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If you have someone outside the country who is willing to be the "name" on the account, just pay for PrivateInternetAccess.com. Best $40 I ever spent. It will show you as logged in from any one of multiple countries.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
TheGooRoo said:
Let me know if you want Gaborik +1800, I can get as much as you need.
Click to expand...
I think they already moved it down to +1500. I got a little on him through a friend.

I agree it looks like a 3-man race, but a couple shutouts could probably get Quick back in it and a couple GWGs would be huge for Gaborik too probably.

my impression was that not many defensemen have won this award. Looking at the history: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conn_Smythe_Trophy

I see just 1 since the lockout (Niedermayer) and just 4 since Leetch and the Rangers won in 1994.

I think Kopitar and Quick are most deserving right now but Doughy is very close for sure.
Click to expand...
I play at slow moving locals, +1800 if you want it.

If I'm a voter today, I give it to Kopitar. But we have to remember, the award isn't voted on by stat guys or nhl execs or fans, it's voted on by hockey writers. Hockey writer's and the media in general seem to really migrate to Doughty.

 
after giving it more thought, I think I'm with you and just going to play both

Kopitar +400

Doughty +400

-----------

$100 to win $400

$100 to win $400

-------

if 1 wins, +$300

if neither wins, -$200

 
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If anyone has any links to NHL advanced stats sites and opinions on which are most relevant, please let me know. I am hopeful to get something working for that (I don't follow as closely as baseball stats)

 
SF +120

NYM - 102

Pitt - 120

Oak/NYY U 8.5 - 120

Cle - 118

Seat + 152

Bal/Tex O 9.5 - 120

KC/STL U 7 - 115 ( Saw I was going against Saw after I already played this :wall: )

GLTA
AB

 
tjnc09 said:
If anyone has any links to NHL advanced stats sites and opinions on which are most relevant, please let me know. I am hopeful to get something working for that (I don't follow as closely as baseball stats)
Click to expand...
ExtraskaterBehindthenet

 
got_nugs said:
I'm going with the Heat, if they lose gm1 I'm doubling down, gm2 I'll hit it again.
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:scared:

You know more about this than me, but to me, they could easily come home down 0-2. The Spurs are so good at home. Unless the plan is to Martingale the whole damn way until they win a game. The Heat certainly aren't getting swept.

 
TheGooRoo said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Conn Smythe talk:

Gaborik is +1800 at SB (he's +700 at BV)

I can't even bet this with my limits at SB as my max win is $10 and the minimum bet is $1, but seems like it might be worth a shot at that price. He's got 12 goals, which is 3 more than anyone else in the playoffs thus far and going against his former team in the finals so I assume he'll get plenty of media attention.

I'm playing Kopitar (+400 at BV). He's already put up 24 points with a +9 and is playing shutdown defense as well.

Doughty has a shot, but I don't think he's worth the price (+400). Quick (+550) might steal it too if the final is a goalie duel, but it seems like he lost some momentum with the way the last series ended.

Lundqvist is a huge favorite if the Rangers can win the series. I guess if you like the Rangers in the series, taking him at +250 or so is better than betting taking the team at +150 or whatever they are. I have a little on him from the last round but not adding any.
Click to expand...
I have 300/900 on Lundqvist. I haven't fully decided what I'm going to do with LA, but I think I'm going to take a big shot on Doughty, with maybe a couple hundred sprinkled on Kopitar. 3 man race IMO.

Let me know if you want Gaborik +1800, I can get as much as you need.
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Vetoed.

 
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Raider Nation said:
got_nugs said:
I'm going with the Heat, if they lose gm1 I'm doubling down, gm2 I'll hit it again.
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:scared:

You know more about this than me, but to me, they could easily come home down 0-2. The Spurs are so good at home. Unless the plan is to Martingale the whole damn way until they win a game. The Heat certainly aren't getting swept.
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Agreed. They could....and I think they can come home 0-2 and still win the series. I'm not going to throw a ton on the series...b/c honestly I think it's a big risk to bet either side with conviction about what's going to happen. These teams are pretty close to equals. So i'll throw a little to start and retouch before games 2/3 if they're losing 1/2. After that i'll either be max invested at good + money or they'll be coming home with at least 1 road win.

If i'm going to get the 2 time champion with the best player at plus money, i'll take it. Mostly i'm a homer that just wants to put a little money on the series...money which is a FREEROLL thanks to Alex Gordon and JIZZSAW (which just happened!)

 
ChainsawU said:
Sure thing, brohan. The thing is, Shields has given up two home runs in B2B starts seven times. And then in the seven subsequent games he gave up 1.29 ±0.76 home runs. Plus, he gets a lot of run support. Shields is 6-0 away L6 with average run support of 7.5 ±1.4 runs per game. There are varying opinions on run support. But Garcia has allowed two home runs in each of his two home starts. I know the KC is last in the MLB in homers (25) but it's kind of like, who do you trust more. And the Royals have been getting runs in Shields' road starts. Hopefully Garcia will walk a few dudes, too.

Royals +116

Royals Over 3½ +100

Over 7 -105
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Tiger Fan likes early cashes

 
Padres pitchers making their first major league start at Petco Park are 8-0 to the under L8 link. Since 2010, pitchers making their major league debut in their home ballpark against the Pirates are 5-0 SU and 5-0 to the under with Pirate run totals of 1,2,2,2,2 link.

u6½ +100

 
I thought that NBA game 1 was tonight. It's not until THURSDAY???

pfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffftttttttttttttttttttttt..................... :sleep:

 
No schtick, the only under I had tonight was DET/TOR even with the wind adjustment. I didn't play it because, well, it's the Tigers and Jays :kicksrock:

 
It's at 5 between innings right now, which I still like.

Both pitchers are dealing and the home plate ump is calling everything a strike. :shrug:

Game is on MLB Network.

 
tjnc09 said:
No schtick, the only under I had tonight was DET/TOR even with the wind adjustment. I didn't play it because, well, it's the Tigers and Jays :kicksrock:
Click to expand...
Dunno if you have any hair on your head...if you do you may have less tomorrow had you played that Tigers/Jays under. Looks like under woulda hit...but not without a lil buttpuckering 1st.

 
got_nugs said:
tjnc09 said:
No schtick, the only under I had tonight was DET/TOR even with the wind adjustment. I didn't play it because, well, it's the Tigers and Jays :kicksrock:
Click to expand...
Dunno if you have any hair on your head...if you do you may have less tomorrow had you played that Tigers/Jays under. Looks like under woulda hit...but not without a lil buttpuckering 1st.
Click to expand...
That is an incredible avatar. I'll put that brick in yo face!

 
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