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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (10 Viewers)

1. I like silverchair - at least the first album, but they don't touch PJ

2. No code is my fav album of all time

3. BTE is very underrated, and puts on a very good live show

4. padres fired their GM.

 
ChainsawU said:
I think Silverchair is better than Pearl Jam.
Click to expand...
For wager size

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

I wouldn't bet full kelly on anything, 1/4 kelly is a good way to go.

That is the mathematically perfect way to bet. Personally I bet anywhere from 0.5% to 3% depending on the wager. 1% is a good rule for those starting out.

I'll also say that because my bankroll is replaceable(I don't survive on only my betting income thankfully) I take chances. Sometimes 5% and sometimes even more.

 
I saw BTE & Silverchair at the 99X/Big Day Out show at Lakewood (Atlanta) in '95. Then, my buddy and I left before the closing act...the Ramones. :bag:

 
I need to win 36 bucks this week to not pay at RB. Goo, Chain, anybody ....get me one small winner sometime this week. Quit all the nitpicking too people. Not worth the energy you spend ifighting imo. When i have time, I will post a Better than Ezra story with you all when they came over for an after hours party at our place after playing HOB in Orlando when I lived there.

 
optionmaven said:
I need to win 36 bucks this week to not pay at RB. Goo, Chain, anybody ....get me one small winner sometime this week. Quit all the nitpicking too people. Not worth the energy you spend ifighting imo. When i have time, I will post a Better than Ezra story with you all when they came over for an after hours party at our place after playing HOB in Orlando when I lived there.
Click to expand...
EFF YOU EFFER!

You go to UCF or were you just living in Orlando bud?

 
John Bender said:
ChainsawU said:
What if we don't have friends in real life though.
Click to expand...
I refuse to believe anyone in this thread doesn't. Best group of cats that I iKnow
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What happened to Bender Tennis. Isn't wimbledon starting? We missed the austrailian or was it the french?

 
Cin - EV: Simon at even money - yes please - even if against Samardzija - I think the Simon correction is coming eventually, but I'll take the better team at EV

STL/COl O 10.5 - going to keep riding COL overs until they buck me. The over hit in all three games this weekend. I suppose that means we are due for an under, but why not? :shrug:

SD + 147 - Despaigne is an international FA who signed on May 2nd. Has a ton of K's in the PCL but also an ugly ERA. Maybe pitching in a more pitcher friendly environment will help him out. At this price, I am willing to roll the dice.

GLTA
AB

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Here are the plays I photoshopped last night:

Pending 6/23/14 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 920 Kansas City Royals +132* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (Z Greinke - R must Start J Guthrie - R must Start) (currently 18c value) [2u]

Pending 6/23/14 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 917 Pittsburgh Pirates +143* vs Tampa Bay Rays (E Volquez - R must Start A Cobb - R must Start) (2c value) [1u] Pending 6/23/14 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 915 Boston Red Sox +148* vs Seattle Mariners (J Lackey - R must Start F Hernandez - R must Start) (19c value) [1u] Pending 6/23/14 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 915 Boston Red Sox/Seattle Mariners Over 6½ +115* (J Lackey - R must Start F Hernandez - R must Start) (3c value) [1u]

Pending 6/23/14 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 919 Los Angeles Dodgers/Kansas City Royals Over 7½ -105* (Z Greinke - R must Start J Guthrie - R must Start) (-2c value) [1u]

Here are my made-up records backtesting using current numbers since 5/13:

1u: 120-144 +19.51u

2u: 60-72 +10.09u

totals: 151-112 +30.34u

all: 331-328 +59.94u

Hopefully I go 0-5 today and the thread rejoices :thumbup:

 
Celph Titled said:
Frostillicus said:
Bovada:

Over 2.5 seniors taken in first round -120

McDermott is a lock and I'd be stunned if either Napier or Payne fell out of the first.
Click to expand...
Parker +125 to go first any good?

Embiid under?
Click to expand...
I still have a lot on Wiggins to not going #1, so not messing with Parker but Chad Ford has him going #1, FWIW.

Only other one I've played so far is Napier under 25.5 or whatever that line is.

 
Frostillicus said:
Celph Titled said:
Frostillicus said:
Bovada:

Over 2.5 seniors taken in first round -120

McDermott is a lock and I'd be stunned if either Napier or Payne fell out of the first.
Click to expand...
Parker +125 to go first any good?

Embiid under?
Click to expand...
I still have a lot on Wiggins to not going #1, so not messing with Parker but Chad Ford has him going #1, FWIW.

Only other one I've played so far is Napier under 25.5 or whatever that line is.
Click to expand...
It's pretty stupid if Napier falls out of the Top 3.

 
There was a pretty hot MILF on last years t-ball team. Saw her today on the opposing team and it looks like she really let herself go after baby #2

Playing a Jellycock parlay in her honor

Dodgers

Brewers

Mariners

Giants

 
Dan Lambskin said:
There was a pretty hot MILF on last years t-ball team. Saw her today on the opposing team and it looks like she really let herself go after baby #2

Playing a Jellycock parlay in her honor

Dodgers

Brewers

Mariners

Giants
Click to expand...
It's amazing the range of women who have young children, as I've noticed from my kids' pre-k. Women who wouldn't look out of place on a college campus to just completely run-down, haggard monsters.

 
tjnc09 said:
Here are the plays I photoshopped last night:

Pending6/23/14 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 920 Kansas City Royals +132* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (Z Greinke - R must Start J Guthrie - R must Start) (currently 18c value) [2u]

Pending 6/23/14 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 917 Pittsburgh Pirates +143* vs Tampa Bay Rays (E Volquez - R must Start A Cobb - R must Start) (2c value) [1u]Pending 6/23/14 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 915 Boston Red Sox +148* vs Seattle Mariners (J Lackey - R must Start F Hernandez - R must Start) (19c value) [1u]Pending6/23/14 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 915 Boston Red Sox/Seattle Mariners Over 6½ +115* (J Lackey - R must Start F Hernandez - R must Start) (3c value) [1u]

Pending6/23/14 8:10pm Reduced Baseball 919 Los Angeles Dodgers/Kansas City Royals Over 7½ -105* (Z Greinke - R must Start J Guthrie - R must Start) (-2c value) [1u]

Here are my made-up records backtesting using current numbers since 5/13:

1u: 120-144 +19.51u

2u: 60-72 +10.09u

totals: 151-112 +30.34u

all: 331-328 +59.94u

Hopefully I go 0-5 today and the thread rejoices :thumbup:
Click to expand...
:no: i'll take a 2-3 since i tailed Pitt and KC

 
optionmaven said:
I need to win 36 bucks this week to not pay at RB. Goo, Chain, anybody ....get me one small winner sometime this week. Quit all the nitpicking too people. Not worth the energy you spend ifighting imo. When i have time, I will post a Better than Ezra story with you all when they came over for an after hours party at our place after playing HOB in Orlando when I lived there.
Click to expand...
SF Giants

 
so we just got a text from my 11yo daughters bff's dad (stay with me), said bff's mom probably won't make it through the night. She's young, father mentioned it was alcohol related failure of the innards. I know at one point before we met them they lived in a motel for a bit, we've only known them for 6 monthish. Don't know if drugs were involved, didn't seem like they were on drugs and I have a pretty good eye-takes one to know one.

WTF alcohol related could kill a mid 30's person? Live is a mother####er.

ok, back to tiny units.

 
got_nugs said:
so we just got a text from my 11yo daughters bff's dad (stay with me), said bff's mom probably won't make it through the night. She's young, father mentioned it was alcohol related failure of the innards. I know at one point before we met them they lived in a motel for a bit, we've only known them for 6 monthish. Don't know if drugs were involved, didn't seem like they were on drugs and I have a pretty good eye-takes one to know one.

WTF alcohol related could kill a mid 30's person? Live is a mother####er.

ok, back to tiny units.
Click to expand...
I usually just ignore stories like this. I drink way too much.

 
John Bender said:
got_nugs said:
so we just got a text from my 11yo daughters bff's dad (stay with me), said bff's mom probably won't make it through the night. She's young, father mentioned it was alcohol related failure of the innards. I know at one point before we met them they lived in a motel for a bit, we've only known them for 6 monthish. Don't know if drugs were involved, didn't seem like they were on drugs and I have a pretty good eye-takes one to know one.

WTF alcohol related could kill a mid 30's person? Live is a mother####er.

ok, back to tiny units.
Click to expand...
I usually just ignore stories like this. I drink way too much.
Click to expand...
Me too, scares the #### out of me. Gotta be pills and booze mixed huh?

 
got_nugs said:
so we just got a text from my 11yo daughters bff's dad (stay with me), said bff's mom probably won't make it through the night. She's young, father mentioned it was alcohol related failure of the innards. I know at one point before we met them they lived in a motel for a bit, we've only known them for 6 monthish. Don't know if drugs were involved, didn't seem like they were on drugs and I have a pretty good eye-takes one to know one.

WTF alcohol related could kill a mid 30's person? Live is a mother####er.

ok, back to tiny units.
Click to expand...
yeah weird. 30 seems too young to do that much damage

 
I realized my made up numbers were made up. 2u were being counted in 1u

They should be:

1u: 60-72 +9.42u

2u: 60-72 +20.18u

tot: 151-112 +30.34u

all: 271-256 +59.94u

but 1u has the same record as 2u which looks even more made up. :mellow: sorry modogg if I deceived you.

 
tjnc09 said:
I realized my made up numbers were made up. 2u were being counted in 1u

They should be:

1u: 60-72 +9.42u

2u: 60-72 +20.18u

tot: 151-112 +30.34u

all: 271-256 +59.94u

but 1u has the same record as 2u which looks even more made up. :mellow: sorry modogg if I deceived you.
Click to expand...
Stop. We've all moved on imo

 
swirvenirvin said:
got_nugs said:
so we just got a text from my 11yo daughters bff's dad (stay with me), said bff's mom probably won't make it through the night. She's young, father mentioned it was alcohol related failure of the innards. I know at one point before we met them they lived in a motel for a bit, we've only known them for 6 monthish. Don't know if drugs were involved, didn't seem like they were on drugs and I have a pretty good eye-takes one to know one.

WTF alcohol related could kill a mid 30's person? Live is a mother####er.

ok, back to tiny units.
Click to expand...
yeah weird. 30 seems too young to do that much damage
Click to expand...
I know a guy that got a liver transplant in his late 30's. In his 30's it was starting to go, from drinking. He had to be off it for a long time before he even got on the transplant list. They have to be sure you are not a lost cause. He is 50 now.

 
John Bender said:
tjnc09 said:
I realized my made up numbers were made up. 2u were being counted in 1u

They should be:

1u: 60-72 +9.42u

2u: 60-72 +20.18u

tot: 151-112 +30.34u

all: 271-256 +59.94u

but 1u has the same record as 2u which looks even more made up. :mellow: sorry modogg if I deceived you.
Click to expand...
Stop. We've all moved on imo
Click to expand...
Yeah, no. You aren't the one who has been accused of being fake twice in two months by two different people.

 
I got a +225ish bet on us to advance. Germany is -165 last I looked to win. I need to bet Germany to guarantee no loss/tiny profit while having a decent shot to middle due to tie breakers right? If the us advance by tie/win I don't mind pushing the bet if I can enjoy another game from them. Thoughts?

 
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