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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (14 Viewers)

mquinnjr said:
swirvenirvin said:
Raider Nation said:
The two I listed at the top of this page. Minimal buffering in my experience.
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interesting have to make the call to directv soon to get the discount
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I have a wired setup now, going to dual-screen project these games out to the second TV via Apple TV from the linked sites (which rule!) when the home guys aren't playing. With a handful of 4PM games and some prime-time games, there will be plenty of opportunities to watch a second game on TV #2 that might not be on local FOX/CBS. I had tried this last season over wireless AirPlay, and I've seen higher quality cam-recorded new release movies. If the wired setup works, that's a done deal for TV #2, as the primary TV is dedicated RedZone on Sunday, would be no need to pay $200 for the Ticket online.
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cool if they dont give it to me for free or under $100 I will be out. I do like constantly switching between all the games though to track the player prop bets. However I also assume my days of watching football all day on Sundays are getting limited as the kids get older.

 
Since Jun 17, 2011, Porcello has made six starts in NL ballparks. The Tigers went 3-3 SU in those games against an average line of -105. The O/U was 5-1 against an average total of 7.8. Rick Porcello allowed 30 runs (27 earned) in 31 IP in those six starts with 49 H, 17 K, and 9 BB. That's an ERA of 7.84 and a WHIP of 1.871. The only under that hit in Porcello's last six starts at NL ballparks was on April 11 when Cashner and the Padres shut out the Tigers 6-0.

Chase Anderson has pitched 34.1 innings at Chase Field in six home starts for the Diamondbacks. He has allowed 19 runs (15 earned) on 39 H, with 9 BB and 29K for a home ERA of 3.93 and a home WHIP of 1.398. I don't know what to think about those six starts for Porcello; two in '11 and '12, and then one each in '13 and '14. But that is a crapload of runs and a super high WHIP. It's also no wonder why the D-Backs line has dropped 15 cents.

 
Bunch of bad pitchers going today on day 5 after the break..

Kazmir over 6k's -150 Push

Happ over 4.5 k's -130 Loser

Wainwright under 6k's -115 Winner

 
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I need some input if you guys are bored enough. I dunno if any of you have been reading the "Watches for under $200" thread, but I posted a link to this site, which has some pretty good looking knockoffs for those of us who aren't going to spend $15K on a watch.

There were a crapload of nice choices, but I narrowed it down to these three.

Left is black dial with the black leather strap.

Center is black dial with the silver bracelet.

Right is black face with yellow gold and black leather strap.

Do any of them stand out as nicer than the other two?

 
Thanks guys, but before ordering I did a little detective work. Crappy merchandise (even for the price), poor customer service, orders not sent after 4 weeks or more, etc. Pass. :(

Guess I'll shoot the lock off of my wallet and go to Macy's to get a nice timepiece.

 
Raider Nation said:
Thanks guys, but before ordering I did a little detective work. Crappy merchandise (even for the price), poor customer service, orders not sent after 4 weeks or more, etc. Pass. :(

Guess I'll shoot the lock off of my wallet and go to Macy's to get a nice timepiece.
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I can't speak for other brands, but I bought myself an Omega with some winnings years ago. I ordered from an out-of-state authorized dealer ("gray market") and saved about 30% plus sales tax. Figure out what model you want and then search the boards at Chronocentric and WatchUSeek.

 
I took a break from gambling and joined the clash of clans.com guys. It's drama over there so I'm back to picking losers. Take the Reds on get away day tomorrow. Book it!!

 
Which QB has the best chance to nudge his way into the Manning/Brees/Rodgers tier?

Stafford? Foles? Luck? Brady? Other?

I think I'm gonna miss out on the Big 3.

 
Raider Nation said:
Warsteinner said:
Raider Nation said:
Which QB has the best chance to nudge his way into the Manning/Brees/Rodgers tier?

Stafford? Foles? Luck? Brady? Other?

I think I'm gonna miss out on the Big 3.
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The only reason you don't have Brady up there is because you're a Raider
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I took him last year in my main league and he ####ed me in the ###. So.... try again.
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Matty Ice? For purely fantasy purposes, he'll have all his toys back and his value is down. Don't need him to be good past Week 16, and he was nasty in 2012, love the value there.

 
mquinnjr said:
Raider Nation said:
Warsteinner said:
Raider Nation said:
Which QB has the best chance to nudge his way into the Manning/Brees/Rodgers tier?

Stafford? Foles? Luck? Brady? Other?

I think I'm gonna miss out on the Big 3.
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The only reason you don't have Brady up there is because you're a Raider
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I took him last year in my main league and he ####ed me in the ###. So.... try again.
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Matty Ice? For purely fantasy purposes, he'll have all his toys back and his value is down. Don't need him to be good past Week 16, and he was nasty in 2012, love the value there.
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Looking forward (as usual) to Hard Knocks this year. Julio is such a stud, but that foot worries me. I want to see a lot of him this summer.

 
Brady with a healthy Gronk and Vereen and Edelman should do well IMO. Plus those young WRs from last year should improve.

Last year he lost everybody.

 
He really did well in the 2nd half of the season considering the slop he was playing with. There seemed to be an emphasis on the running game, which pissed me off. Understandable, certainly, given the personnel he was dealing with.

Hey Rude, I listen to the Audible podcast religiously. Why were you not on the IDP roundtable show? Isn't that your baby?

 
That Audible podcast helped me greatly with my insomnia, no shtick. I play it softly on my phone next to the bed. Something about Bloom's voice is soothing. :lol:

 
Saw- ever seen any research done on teams going for a bullpen game and how they fare? Maybe even how they do relative to the ML?

I was thinking maybe a query on SP 3 innings or less, but I expect that includes mostly regular SPs who got bombed. 3 innings or less with <2 runs or something might make sense, but you're discounting RP starters who got killed in that case and might just be a bunch of injuries. Any ideas?

Asking because of the Twins today.

ETA: obviously this isn't just directed at Saw, just figured him the most likely person to dig something up

 
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I think the days of Brady being a top 3

QB are over and this is from a homer. I mean that as more of testimate to the D being better and a shift Towrds running the ball more then a slight of Brady.

 
cheese said:
Saw- ever seen any research done on teams going for a bullpen game and how they fare? Maybe even how they do relative to the ML?

I was thinking maybe a query on SP 3 innings or less, but I expect that includes mostly regular SPs who got bombed. 3 innings or less with <2 runs or something might make sense, but you're discounting RP starters who got killed in that case and might just be a bunch of injuries. Any ideas?

Asking because of the Twins today.

ETA: obviously this isn't just directed at Saw, just figured him the most likely person to dig something up
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I do know that the Mariners tried this when they started Wilhelmsen against the Twins back on the 10th and it didn't go well. But you're right on point - those results generate either starters who either got bombed or, in the case of 2 or less runs allowed, most likely injured in those situations. I understand exactly what you mean though. I can tell you that Swarzak has started 28 games for the Twins and they went 9-19 SU (4-11 SU home) against an average line of 120. Swarzak pitched 146 innings with 99 R, 180 H, 40 BB, and 82 K. Personally, with unknowns like that I would let the consensus #s and some sort of RLM dictate a play if there was one, but the consensus seems to be on Cleveland with the line moving in their favor as well.

 
Colon under 5k's -125 Push

Eaton over 1.5 -135 Loser

A. Ramirez under 2 -115 Winner

Lohse +.5 over Leake -105 Loser

Leake under 5 - 105 Winner

 
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Seems like sprotsbook posted games of the year for NCAA. I'm shut off generaly speaking but they are allowing 330/300 bets for anyone I guess.

Here is what I like, be interested in anyone's thoughts.

Wazzu -5 @ Nevada No problem laying less then a TD here

Baylor -27 @ Buff This will be on the other side of 28 come kickoff.

Stanford PK @ Wash I dont get this line. Stanford is a better team by a mile

Temple +15 @ Hou I dont think they will catch > two TD at kickoff, but I like Temple this year compared to last

ECU -13.5 Vs Uconn I think this will be on the other side of 14

Ariz St PK @ Ariz It's later in the year and Ariz should get it's self put together by now, but Ariz St is just a much more experienced team.

SC -1.5 @ Clemson SEC over ACC that isn't Fla St.

 
The Angels are 6-0 SU L6 Weaver starts but I'm not that impressed with the opponent. It was Rangers 2x, Twins, White Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners. Check this out though: Since 2011 the Angels are 4-10 SU avoiding the 3- or 4-game home sweep (avg line -132). Three of those four wins were in Jered Weaver's starts. He has been the only starter that has consistently helped them avoid the sweep.

Since 2007, the Angels are 5-5 SU in Weaver's starts avoiding the 3- or 4- game home sweep (avg line -178). But they are 3-0 SU in those last 3 since 2011. Weaver allowed 1 run in 22.0 innings during those last three games in that situation. Any questions?

But then on the flip side of that coin: The Orioles are 15-1 SU L16 Tillman starts (since Aug 6, 2011) when they are lined as the underdog ≥ 130 (avg line 145). AND The Orioles are 9-3 SU this season in Tillman's starts lined ≥ 100 (avg line 131). So Tillman has been solid as the underdog this year, and especially as the dog of 130 or more. The only drawback to those trends is that the last time Tillman was lined as the dog, it was +150 at Oakland versus Smarj and they lost, hence the only loss in those 16 games lined ≥ 130. So is the trend broken?

However, the Angels are only 2-3 SU since the break, all home games, and they have only tallied 15 runs in those five games. There are arguements backing both teams in this spot. I'll probably look at more stuff but wanted to ask you guys.

 
When Cobb is making his first start versus an opposing team at their house, the Rays are 7-3 SU against an average line of 100. Cobb pitched 60.1 innings and allowed 17 R, 56 H, and 16 BB with 54K in those 10 games. Opposing teams averaged 2.1 ±1.4 runs per game in those 10 games. I also read on the ESPN preview that Lynn has historically sucked in the 2H of the season. Also, the Rays have won six straight. Both these teams have days off tomorrow, but I didn't notice anything either way. I think I am backing Cobb just because the Rays are hot and he has done well facing teams for the first time at their house. The Rays are 9-4 SU overall in Cobb's debut versus opposing teams, home or away, since 2012 (avg line -120).

 
ChainsawU said:
The only drawback to those trends is that the last time Tillman was lined as the dog, it was +150 at Oakland versus Smarj and they lost, hence the only loss in those 16 games lined ≥ 130. So is the trend broken?
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It looks like their bullpen blew this win for them in the 9th inning. Otherwise you would have had Tillman 16-0 SU L16 games, going back to Aug 6, 2011, when he is lined as the underdog of ≥ 130. That is insane.

Their bullpen only threw 15 pitches last night. I think I am going with Tillman.

 
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That is a pretty crazy stat, but I can't back Tillman with his underlying numbers. Velocity is down, walk rate up, K rate down, huge dip in swinging strikes, huge dip in getting chases... his fangraphs page is a horror story.

 
I guess you're right. Angels 22-1 SU lined ≤ -155 since May 20. The loss was when Dickey and the 'Jays shut them out. That's pretty strong. I wish there were more games on at 10. Astros games are all blacked out for me. I don't love Tillman I just need something at 10!

 
It's not at 10, but among the lateish games, I really like Cubs/Padres under. Kennedy's breakout seems to be legit and the Padres have a .567 OPS against lefties this year. 100 pts worse than the next team.

 
That was the first game I looked at this morning. Found out that teams playing at Wrigley after being shut out at Wrigley are 21-14 SU against an average line of 127 since 2004. But the Pads are only 5-9 SU after being shut out this season (0-5 L5).

Kennedy is 10-0-0 to the under on the road this season though. And the Padres are 10-3-1 to the under after being shut out (7-1-0 away).

 
swirvenirvin said:
Colon under 5k's -125

Eaton over 1.5 -135

A. Ramirez under 2 -115 Winner

Lohse +.5 over Leake -105 Loser

Leake under 5 - 105 Winner
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Haren over 4.5k's -115 Winner

Liriano over 5.5k's -115 Loser

Peacock over 4 k's +105 Loser

 
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OAK/LAA parlays look a lot like OAK/WAS parlays yesterday. Except for that today's parlay is both of the late games. It's setting someone up for greatness tonight.

 
Weaver hasn't allowed a HR in his last three starts. Last time he went four starts without allowing one was July 2, 2012. He has started 62 games since then. This year, the Angels are 5-6 SU when he allows at least one HR. And in 10 starts versus Baltimore he has allowed a HR in five of those games.

 
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