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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
God dang! That's some coin. I would let line movement tell me what to do. Like back on July 2 when Cueto was in SD. It was so easy to take the Reds that day because, it's Cueto.. and the Pads. Yet they kept lowering the price on the Reds, down to like -110, -115. I took the Pads 105 that day and it was a hard bet to make. But sure enough the Pads scored 3 in the 1st inning and ended up winning 3-0. I will tell you what is nuts though, is that Jerome Williams is pitching for the Rangers today. Versus Oakland. So there's that, there is the under in Anaheim, there is a heat index in the 100s today at Kaufmann with wind blowing out and they scored about 2 runs there yesterday in an extra inning game that probably taxed both pens..Tiger Fan said:Chain. Which one do you like better- yanks or dodgers? Have a $500 free bet to play
DODGERSTiger Fan said:Chain. Which one do you like better- yanks or dodgers? Have a $500 free bet to play
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Mlb.com will list the umpires in their box scores. Just go look who did 1B the game before. They rotate clockwise each game, so in the next game 1B will go to home plate, home plate will go to 3B, and 3B will go to 2B. Keep in mind that the book knows this too, though. So the biggest advantage you can gain over the book on umpires is in the first game of a series when nobody knows who the HPU will be. To get that info you have to check the MLB.com box score as soon as it is released that day, usually a couple hours before the game starts. That's when the price on the total will start moving - when they release that HPU info. They like to keep it a secret for some reason.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Flight Club if you ever find yourself in Detroit area (hottest girls too)John Bender said:Nope. Pasties and underwear on. Beautiful eastern European and Russian women though. I much prefer a sleezier place where I can get a tug at least in a back room.Raider Nation said:
Does that place usually have "extras" on the menu?
Pretty much all the clubs around here are full of whores though...some are just much more sleezy
So opposite of where the money is going?God dang! That's some coin. I would let line movement tell me what to do. Like back on July 2 when Cueto was in SD. It was so easy to take the Reds that day because, it's Cueto.. and the Pads. Yet they kept lowering the price on the Reds, down to like -110, -115. I took the Pads 105 that day and it was a hard bet to make. But sure enough the Pads scored 3 in the 1st inning and ended up winning 3-0. I will tell you what is nuts though, is that Jerome Williams is pitching for the Rangers today. Versus Oakland. So there's that, there is the under in Anaheim, there is a heat index in the 100s today at Kaufmann with wind blowing out and they scored about 2 runs there yesterday in an extra inning game that probably taxed both pens..Tiger Fan said:Chain. Which one do you like better- yanks or dodgers? Have a $500 free bet to play
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
hmm thanks, was hoping ESPN had it hidden somewhere since that is where i pull the batter history. Trying to have my buddy write some code and trying to determine the logic. I should probably take some classes but am too lazy
lumpy19
Footballguy
No he's saying follow the moneySo opposite of where the money is going?God dang! That's some coin. I would let line movement tell me what to do. Like back on July 2 when Cueto was in SD. It was so easy to take the Reds that day because, it's Cueto.. and the Pads. Yet they kept lowering the price on the Reds, down to like -110, -115. I took the Pads 105 that day and it was a hard bet to make. But sure enough the Pads scored 3 in the 1st inning and ended up winning 3-0. I will tell you what is nuts though, is that Jerome Williams is pitching for the Rangers today. Versus Oakland. So there's that, there is the under in Anaheim, there is a heat index in the 100s today at Kaufmann with wind blowing out and they scored about 2 runs there yesterday in an extra inning game that probably taxed both pens..Tiger Fan said:Chain. Which one do you like better- yanks or dodgers? Have a $500 free bet to play
Yeah, I misread it. RhxNo he's saying follow the moneySo opposite of where the money is going?God dang! That's some coin. I would let line movement tell me what to do. Like back on July 2 when Cueto was in SD. It was so easy to take the Reds that day because, it's Cueto.. and the Pads. Yet they kept lowering the price on the Reds, down to like -110, -115. I took the Pads 105 that day and it was a hard bet to make. But sure enough the Pads scored 3 in the 1st inning and ended up winning 3-0. I will tell you what is nuts though, is that Jerome Williams is pitching for the Rangers today. Versus Oakland. So there's that, there is the under in Anaheim, there is a heat index in the 100s today at Kaufmann with wind blowing out and they scored about 2 runs there yesterday in an extra inning game that probably taxed both pens..Tiger Fan said:Chain. Which one do you like better- yanks or dodgers? Have a $500 free bet to play
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Rizzo under 2 -115
Kelly over 4k's -105
Kelly over 4k's -105
Looking like Dodgers.
Opened at -105 per Vegas Insider
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/
Opened at -105 per Vegas Insider
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Buehrle under 4.5 k's -150 Winner
Kuroda (pick) over Buerhle -125 Winner
Gardner over 1.5 -135 Loser
Gallardo over 4.5 k's-135 Winner
Morton under 5.5 k's130 Winner
Moustakas over Murphy -115 Push
Daniel Murphy over 1.5 -135 Winner
Ventura under 5k's -170 Loser
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Yanks vote for me.Tiger Fan said:Chain. Which one do you like better- yanks or dodgers? Have a $500 free bet to play
Went with the $500 free bet parlay: Yanks/Dodgers...here's my thought process.
If I went with one game: Yanks, if they win +370
2 game parlay: Yanks win, I throw a bet on SF to win 370....if SF win, I net 370...if LAD wins, I net 745
New approach to these $500 free bets. Kind of kicking myself in the ### for not doing this earlier....AMIRITE
If I went with one game: Yanks, if they win +370
2 game parlay: Yanks win, I throw a bet on SF to win 370....if SF win, I net 370...if LAD wins, I net 745
New approach to these $500 free bets. Kind of kicking myself in the ### for not doing this earlier....AMIRITE
Donkey Derp
Footballguy
I think you are forgetting the one scenario that unfortunately may happen where the Yankees lose.
Only way to guarantee a win is put $500 at SB and $250 (or whatever) on their opponent at another shop. But that's no fun.
Only way to guarantee a win is put $500 at SB and $250 (or whatever) on their opponent at another shop. But that's no fun.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Damn Brantley back to over under 1/2 HR
No I was accounting for this. It was based on me deciding whether or not to bet just the yanks
lumpy19
Footballguy
If the yanks win u better not hedge.... It's a free bet u giant #####
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regularguy
Footballguy
Oh, come on lumpy, how many bonuses did you clear the safe way years ago?
lumpy19
Footballguy
I know I know... Just busting balls... Admittedly I was always more aggressive with free bets because it was exciting to have a big bet out there and a nice break from the normal 50 and 100 dollars bets.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Gotta lock in some profits wherever you can.
Like the Orioles +1.5 tonight, for example. (-135).
Like the Orioles +1.5 tonight, for example. (-135).
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Brown's our guy, right? From the last time?
sheerterror
Footballguy
Playing Bermudez -150. Should be a very fun fight - but I think we know what Guida is capable of, while Bermudez is continually improving. He's got advantages everywhere in this fight IMO.modogg said:
sheerterror
Footballguy
Brown's the effin man. I've doubted him and bet against him more than probably almost every other fighter in the UFC and he keeps proving me wrong and losing money. Having said that, I can't bet against the reborn Robbie Lawler. Going to stay on the sidelines for this one, but if I was a betting man...I'd throw a few bucks on the dog.
For those who tailed "MLB Hits leader under 210.5"....currently Altuve is projected to have 230...but he could potentially be slowing down. Just one data point, but here's his Hits/AB by Month:
Month Hits/AB
April 0.275862
May 0.357143
June 0.410526
July 0.309524
Cabrera is currently projected at 206 and Cano at 210, so we're gonna be sweating this
Month Hits/AB
April 0.275862
May 0.357143
June 0.410526
July 0.309524
Cabrera is currently projected at 206 and Cano at 210, so we're gonna be sweating this
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I don't feel good about it...he basically needs to hit under .300 post-ASB
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
tyChainsawU said:
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Still needs to get plunked in the hand and a little trip to the DL
John Bender
Footballguy
Do we have any resident real estate agents I can pick the brain of? Or someone well versed in negotiating home prices based on inspection results?
Someone PM me please.
Someone PM me please.
got_nugs
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Picture this. Your last start was at home versus the Rockies five or six days ago. The Rockies just saw you. Your next start is today at Coors Field. Since 2004 your team has gone 13-18 SU against an average line of -113 in that situation. The total went 22-9 to the over against an average total of 10.6 and 17-1 to the over since June 27, 2005. The Pirates only scored 1 run yesterday, which contributed to the only under in those L18 games in this situation.
This will actually be the 4th time the Pirates have been in this situation since last year. They are 0-3 SU so far with 24 total runs allowed to the Rockies. It's just hard to back Matzek since the Rockies are 0-7 SU in his L7 starts. And it's hard to back a total of 11 because I think a total that high is insane. It's just weird and always seems square. But in addition to the above, you get Eric Cooper behind home plate who has the highest WHIP this season out of all the other umps going today, which is promising. Anyway, the B2B starts at home and then at Coors piqued my interest. I think it looks like more runs for the Rockies today.
This will actually be the 4th time the Pirates have been in this situation since last year. They are 0-3 SU so far with 24 total runs allowed to the Rockies. It's just hard to back Matzek since the Rockies are 0-7 SU in his L7 starts. And it's hard to back a total of 11 because I think a total that high is insane. It's just weird and always seems square. But in addition to the above, you get Eric Cooper behind home plate who has the highest WHIP this season out of all the other umps going today, which is promising. Anyway, the B2B starts at home and then at Coors piqued my interest. I think it looks like more runs for the Rockies today.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Idk. I thought 4.5 -125 was a lot of juice at 5d. I was going to wait and look for an o5 +105. Did you shop that line. Pinnacle says it should be o4.5 1.826. Hell even RB isn't up to 5 yet. Are sportsbook's team totals always -115? I'd play Rockies ML before I paid that much juice. I hate laying juice. Books are happy to let you pay all that just to win 100. Gotta send 'em to tha seventh level for that. You know what I'm talkin' about.
i hear ya. I only have 2 books (SB and RB)...and I'm on the payout verge with RB with about $900 in baseball futures pending, so I'm not going to play there until I have a better feel of what those will look like.
regularguy
Footballguy
I thought you didn't play futures? Is it different for you mentally to play them at RB since it's credit? I'm just curious because I haven't typically played them in the past either.
These were baseball total win over/unders I played when I got access to all of the prediction machine picks. I think the reason I played them were b/c I had access to the picks and he had historically hit at a good clip...more than it was on credit.
I'm pretty disciplined, so the credit doesn't really effect me. I play where the line is better...but if all things were equal, I'd play at RB b/c of the credit.
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
Brown missed weight. I'm going to run errands but will be back for the Kingsbury +170 that I just played. Also down for playing Cruickshank. Do you think it goes the distance? That's a nice little prop 5d is offering: Cruickshank by decision +380. I played it.modogg said:
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
These are all going to be pretty close.
BP has the Yankees at 83.7, Royals at 81.7, and Reds at 81.4.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Sale,gray and Kershaw here. G'luck
