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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

got_nugs said:
The next time we won't have real football on the weekend will be NEXT YEAR.
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Amen brother.So what are we doing for week 1?

I got a little on LSU and I got a great big bunch on BG -7 (thus my heart attack this am when lump made that post).

 
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NIU Kicker said:
got_nugs said:
The next time we won't have real football on the weekend will be NEXT YEAR.
Click to expand...
Amen brother.So what are we doing for week 1?

I got a little on LSU and I got a great big bunch on BG -7 (thus my heart attack this am when lump made that post).
Click to expand...
I think I tailed Bendah on Colorado St +3. What LSU line did you get? It's at -5 now. I'm also multiunitinvested BG-7. I'll be looking at the FSU TT line, haven't seen it yet on RB.

 
It's football season? What's the best site to bet with? Looking for help from the degens....and when I say best I mean pays out quick. Also, do you guys recommend a good odds site? I'm new to this and looking for assistance. What steakhouses do you guys use?

 
ChainsawU said:
It's football season? What's the best site to bet with? Looking for help from the degens....and when I say best I mean pays out quick. Also, do you guys recommend a good odds site? I'm new to this and looking for assistance. What steakhouses do you guys use?
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odds site

http://www.bettingtalk.com/odds/lines.php?sport=ncaafb&period=0 it's fed by sportsoptions, much cleaner than sbrodds IMO

Based in the USA you're going to have trouble with fast payouts, it's hard for the offshore places to transfer money.

If you haven't used it up yet deposit at sportsbook.ag soft lines, good limits, tons of betting options

 
lumpy19 said:
ChainsawU said:
It's football season? What's the best site to bet with? Looking for help from the degens....and when I say best I mean pays out quick. Also, do you guys recommend a good odds site? I'm new to this and looking for assistance. What steakhouses do you guys use?
Click to expand...
odds site

http://www.bettingtalk.com/odds/lines.php?sport=ncaafb&period=0 it's fed by sportsoptions, much cleaner than sbrodds IMO

Based in the USA you're going to have trouble with fast payouts, it's hard for the offshore places to transfer money.

If you haven't used it up yet deposit at sportsbook.ag soft lines, good limits, tons of betting options
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I don't think those were sincere questions.

 
It never hurts to have something to fall back on though. Thanks Lump. This is the time of year when we always have information seekers coming around.

 
regularguy said:
lumpy19 said:
odds site

http://www.bettingtalk.com/odds/lines.php?sport=ncaafb&period=0 it's fed by sportsoptions, much cleaner than sbrodds IMO
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Have you tried SBRodds.com? If so, any reason for preference?

Speaking of Sportsbook.ag, what are their usual limits on NFL/NCAA sides? I'm cut, but I'm hoping their limits haven't gone up to normal yet which hopefully will pull mine up too (looks to be % based).
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yes i've tried sbrodds, i think the bettingtalk site is much cleaner and I like the sportsoptions feed, not sure what feeds sbrodds

to get their normal limits just log out of sportsbook and then select an event and try and bet 10k and it'll tell you the current limit. I think on gameday it'll be like 3k or 5k on football sides/totals

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
lumpy19 said:
ChainsawU said:
It's football season? What's the best site to bet with? Looking for help from the degens....and when I say best I mean pays out quick. Also, do you guys recommend a good odds site? I'm new to this and looking for assistance. What steakhouses do you guys use?
Click to expand...
odds site

http://www.bettingtalk.com/odds/lines.php?sport=ncaafb&period=0 it's fed by sportsoptions, much cleaner than sbrodds IMO

Based in the USA you're going to have trouble with fast payouts, it's hard for the offshore places to transfer money.

If you haven't used it up yet deposit at sportsbook.ag soft lines, good limits, tons of betting options
Click to expand...
I don't think those were sincere questions.
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yeah that's why i didn't answer the steak house question

 
Free 250 just like last yr on Bovada

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Out of all the NL teams, the Marlins have the most wins (12) and the best winning % (.706) versus the AL this season.

They are 6-1 SU on the road versus the AL this season (avg line 143). Cheers dudes.

Marlins 149

 
Tiger Fan said:
I do hate going against the home dog on prime time college games, but it seems like the BG love in this thread is huge. What gives?
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I had this game circled early. I see it as a matchup between the best team in the MAC vs a glorified sun belt team. I see a loaded BG O and a still very good D vs a team that has a very suspect D and a O that lost it's best player.

Who knows? WKU could win 77-0. But I see a BG blowout.

 
NIU Kicker said:
Tiger Fan said:
I do hate going against the home dog on prime time college games, but it seems like the BG love in this thread is huge. What gives?
Click to expand...
I had this game circled early. I see it as a matchup between the best team in the MAC vs a glorified sun belt team. I see a loaded BG O and a still very good D vs a team that has a very suspect D and a O that lost it's best player.Who knows? WKU could win 77-0. But I see a BG blowout.
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Matt Johnson in that offense could be ridiculous and the defense is mostly the same guys who won them the MAC last year. BG basically runs Baylors offense starting with this WKU game an Babers inherited a top 10 national QB to run it with IMO. To be honest, I don't know much at all about WK, but 7 seems like not much of a factor. This either blows up in their face somehow and the offense isn't ready or they come out Bayloring people.
 
There are at least three and as many as five teams interested in and talking with Incognito, a source told Schefter. He is likely to sign somewhere by the end of the week, according to the source.

 
@HolderStephen: Just asked Chuck Pagano about Richie Incognito and he says they're willing to consider any and all possibilities, including Richie

 
@philsteele042: The last Bowling Green head coach (not including interims) who lost his debut game was Harry Ockerman back in 1935 (9-0-1 SU for new HC's)

 
5 games I liked...

BG -7 (now -7.5) bet a ton on it

LSU -4 (now -5) bet a little bit

BC -13.5 (now -17) bet nothing

ULM +4 (now PK) bet nothing

Temple +16 (now 13.5) bet nothing

I suck

 
Could be last day for some baseball props let's get it

Gio under 6 +105 Winner

Cole under 5 -110 Loser

De La Rosa under 4.5 -130 Winner

Porcello under 4.5 -135 Winner

McCarthy -1 over Porcello -105 Winner

Chen under 4.5 -120 Winner

Cobb -1 over Chen -135 Winner

Alex Wood -1 over Gee -120 Winner

Cueto under 7.5 -140 Loser ####ing Javier Baez 4k's

 
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Brewers 5-1 SU since 07/30 on the road lined at plus money. They're 7-1 SU on the road in the 2nd/3rd/4th game of the series when they scored 8 or more runs in the previous game. They've won their L5 road games.

Brewers 110

 
Tiger Fan said:
ChainsawU said:
I'd ask them to do a little test drive before laying down the 20 dollars. But if the interface is user-friendly like they say then why not. I bet you could let them give you a little test drive, like a 1-day free pass before the games start. That's what I would try to negotiate. Mention the cost of gaining a new, committed customer. I'd like to try it out. I think there are already databases like this, like Don Best maybe? Does he do one. There are more out there, but I know you are already a PM customer.
Click to expand...
just letting you know...not sure if you have something similar already. They usually offer free weekends here and there. I did sign up for the entire college FB package.

[SIZE=10pt]For what it's worth, I analyzed all of the CFB games and the PM picks from 2011-2013 (4294 total picks)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Over/Unders[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Recommended plays (57%+ chance of winning) have won 50 units over the course of the 3 years. The data doesn't really skew either way for overs vs. unders....so I'll be betting every single one of these. He's been + money every year (2011: +17u, 2012: +29u, 2013: +5u)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]ATS[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Recommended plays have lost 25 units over the 3 years. Breakdown by years is as followed: (2011: -34u, 2012: +13u, 2013: -4u); so maybe he honed his formula over time, or he's just not as good at ATS. Bottom line is over 3 years, it's really a crapshoot for ATS, there's no real correlation of a stronger play yields stronger results. There were times where he won 8 picks in a row, times where he lost 8 in a row.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]One thing to note is that all of data is based on where the lines opened. He adjusts the plays as the lines move, but the data available is only on the opening lines. So betting the O/U early is the key. I'll do that everytime and play ATS when I want some action plays.[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
Code: 
Over	TexA&M @ SC	59.5Under	Tulane @ Tulsa	47Over	Wisc vs LSU	50Under	WestMi @ Purdue	53.5Under	SouMis @ MissSt	56Over	Troy @ UAB	66Over	Clem @ UGa	55Under	FlaAtl @ Neb	51Over	Cal @ NW	60.5Over	Ark @ Auburn	57.5Under	App @ Mich	54
 
Tiger Fan said:
Tiger Fan said:
ChainsawU said:
I'd ask them to do a little test drive before laying down the 20 dollars. But if the interface is user-friendly like they say then why not. I bet you could let them give you a little test drive, like a 1-day free pass before the games start. That's what I would try to negotiate. Mention the cost of gaining a new, committed customer. I'd like to try it out. I think there are already databases like this, like Don Best maybe? Does he do one. There are more out there, but I know you are already a PM customer.
Click to expand...
just letting you know...not sure if you have something similar already. They usually offer free weekends here and there. I did sign up for the entire college FB package.

[SIZE=10pt]For what it's worth, I analyzed all of the CFB games and the PM picks from 2011-2013 (4294 total picks)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Over/Unders[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Recommended plays (57%+ chance of winning) have won 50 units over the course of the 3 years. The data doesn't really skew either way for overs vs. unders....so I'll be betting every single one of these. He's been + money every year (2011: +17u, 2012: +29u, 2013: +5u)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]ATS[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Recommended plays have lost 25 units over the 3 years. Breakdown by years is as followed: (2011: -34u, 2012: +13u, 2013: -4u); so maybe he honed his formula over time, or he's just not as good at ATS. Bottom line is over 3 years, it's really a crapshoot for ATS, there's no real correlation of a stronger play yields stronger results. There were times where he won 8 picks in a row, times where he lost 8 in a row.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]One thing to note is that all of data is based on where the lines opened. He adjusts the plays as the lines move, but the data available is only on the opening lines. So betting the O/U early is the key. I'll do that everytime and play ATS when I want some action plays.[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
Over TexA&M @ SC 59.5Under Tulane @ Tulsa 47Over Wisc vs LSU 50Under WestMi @ Purdue 53.5Under SouMis @ MissSt 56Over Troy @ UAB 66Over Clem @ UGa 55Under FlaAtl @ Neb 51Over Cal @ NW 60.5Over Ark @ Auburn 57.5Under App @ Mich 54
Click to expand...
So what is all of this?

You posting plays on some guy who has good record last 3 yrs on o/u's?

 
swirvenirvin said:
Tiger Fan said:
John Bender said:
swirvenirvin said:
Tiger Fan said:
so

swirvenirvin said:
Good read here on NCAAF dogs who are good rushing teams in low scoring games

http://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/good-rushing-teams-undervalued-low-scoring-college-football-games/
Click to expand...
:thumbup:
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add in the unranked and 3-19 and looks better
Click to expand...
Let's try to remember this. I'm usually out of money by week two but would stick around to try this out. Good link
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already put it in my calendar :thumbup:

That site is pretty cool. A tad pricey for me, but the concept is great and user interface is much better than the one Chain uses
Click to expand...
yeah looked interesting.. how much is it?
Click to expand...
$149/month

 
swirvenirvin said:
Tiger Fan said:
Tiger Fan said:
ChainsawU said:
I'd ask them to do a little test drive before laying down the 20 dollars. But if the interface is user-friendly like they say then why not. I bet you could let them give you a little test drive, like a 1-day free pass before the games start. That's what I would try to negotiate. Mention the cost of gaining a new, committed customer. I'd like to try it out. I think there are already databases like this, like Don Best maybe? Does he do one. There are more out there, but I know you are already a PM customer.
Click to expand...
just letting you know...not sure if you have something similar already. They usually offer free weekends here and there. I did sign up for the entire college FB package.

[SIZE=10pt]For what it's worth, I analyzed all of the CFB games and the PM picks from 2011-2013 (4294 total picks)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Over/Unders[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Recommended plays (57%+ chance of winning) have won 50 units over the course of the 3 years. The data doesn't really skew either way for overs vs. unders....so I'll be betting every single one of these. He's been + money every year (2011: +17u, 2012: +29u, 2013: +5u)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]ATS[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Recommended plays have lost 25 units over the 3 years. Breakdown by years is as followed: (2011: -34u, 2012: +13u, 2013: -4u); so maybe he honed his formula over time, or he's just not as good at ATS. Bottom line is over 3 years, it's really a crapshoot for ATS, there's no real correlation of a stronger play yields stronger results. There were times where he won 8 picks in a row, times where he lost 8 in a row.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]One thing to note is that all of data is based on where the lines opened. He adjusts the plays as the lines move, but the data available is only on the opening lines. So betting the O/U early is the key. I'll do that everytime and play ATS when I want some action plays.[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
Over TexA&M @ SC 59.5Under Tulane @ Tulsa 47Over Wisc vs LSU 50Under WestMi @ Purdue 53.5Under SouMis @ MissSt 56Over Troy @ UAB 66Over Clem @ UGa 55Under FlaAtl @ Neb 51Over Cal @ NW 60.5Over Ark @ Auburn 57.5Under App @ Mich 54
Click to expand...
So what is all of this?

You posting plays on some guy who has good record last 3 yrs on o/u's?
Click to expand...
yep

 
The last couple days the SDQL database has been slow as hell. Loading time that is usually instantaneous is taking 20-30 seconds and then leads to a timeout. It's like that sometimes during the NCAA Tournament. And I guess the week before football season. People are researching. A lot.

 
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