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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)

Aaron Rudnicki said:
I only see 3 IDP props listed tonight at my books. Have a lean towards the overs because the Indy crew gives out lots of assists generally, and the Eagles fast paced offense should create lots of opportunities for both sides. But, I think the lines are set pretty well for the players they offered.

I'm playing Fletcher Cox O3.5 tackles (-115) since the number is low and Trent Richardson will probably run right into him at least 4 times tonight.

put a little on Ryans O7.5 and Landry O7 just for action mostly but 8 tackles to win feels like a high number for both.
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2-0-1 on these if anyone tailed.

 
swirvenirvin said:
NFL teams receiving 40% or less of bets are now 15-6 against the spread this season.
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Not surprising. I've always wandered how accurate this info is. It's great stuff but I have my doubts to its accuracy. Anybody? I've never looked into it closely. Where is it coming from and, assuming there is more than one source/site that reports it, is there ever conflicting data?

 
John Bender said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
TheGooRoo said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
RN, you'll be able to find this. I need to see that touchdown dance again from West yesterday. :lmao:
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http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/9/14/6148557/browns-rb-terrance-west-scores-busts-a-move
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:lmao: So great. What is it called?
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Is that the Stanky Leg?
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If it is I like it even more. It's like he's starting it up or something in the beginning.

You should come to Vegas this weekend. I'll be doing the Stanky Leg. :clap:

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I only see 3 IDP props listed tonight at my books. Have a lean towards the overs because the Indy crew gives out lots of assists generally, and the Eagles fast paced offense should create lots of opportunities for both sides. But, I think the lines are set pretty well for the players they offered.

I'm playing Fletcher Cox O3.5 tackles (-115) since the number is low and Trent Richardson will probably run right into him at least 4 times tonight.

put a little on Ryans O7.5 and Landry O7 just for action mostly but 8 tackles to win feels like a high number for both.
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2-0-1 on these if anyone tailed.
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so sad I missed two cuz they were not bolded. Good reading skills
 
TheGooRoo said:
NIU Kicker said:
Just to be clear my menu looks the same right now. It shows up during halftime and then disapears.
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That was my menu during halftime. I click on the NFL 2nd half lines, no props. I click on the player props and it shows all the full game player props in progress. Nothing that says halftime props anywhere, both last week and this week.
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Just realized your new avatar...quickly googled to figure out who it was so i could bet on them....and realized I already made that bet :thumbup:

 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
swirvenirvin said:
NFL teams receiving 40% or less of bets are now 15-6 against the spread this season.
Click to expand...
Not surprising. I've always wandered how accurate this info is. It's great stuff but I have my doubts to its accuracy. Anybody? I've never looked into it closely. Where is it coming from and, assuming there is more than one source/site that reports it, is there ever conflicting data?
Click to expand...
found it on twitter from that same site I got the ncaaf rushing system thing we are playing :shrug:

 
lumpy19 said:
Started the battle this morning...sent an email to sportsbetting to clarify that all my season long player props should be refunded because the guys didn't make enough starts. Figured I'd get a jump on the fight.
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Response within 24 hours, not too shabby

[SIZE=10pt]Hello lumpy19,[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]I checked the wagers listed. Should they not complete the required qualifier, they will have no action.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]If you have any other questions or require further assistance, please do not hesitate to contact us.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]Best regards,[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10pt]JG[/SIZE]

Customer Support Department

[SIZE=10pt]SportsBetting,[/SIZE]
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I'll throw a dart imo...

NFL teams that played their first two games on the road and then play at home in week 3 are 21-41-4 ATS (33.9%)

Since 2004: 6-16-2 (27.3%)

Since 2009: 3-11-1 (21.4%)

Jags, Pats, Saints fall into the above.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Used past stats, rotoworld and site projections here to try to figure these out. Did ok last yr on the handful I made plus hit that Scherzer CY. But here goes still have 20 some pitchers to look at. FYFYIFYIYFIYFIYF The units are consistent, but they are not the same unit size I play NFL props

1.5

Pedroria over 163.5 hits -115 Loser Injured

1.25

Chris Davis over 36 HR's -115 Loser Injured

Paul Goldschmidt over 29.5 HR's -120 Loser Injured

Hanley Ramirez over 21.5 HR's -115 Loser Injured

1

Adam Jones over 164.5 hits -115 Winner

Bryce Harper under 157.5 hits -115 Winner Injured

Buster Posey under 162.5 hits -115 Loser

Ian Kinsler over 147.5 hits -1115 Winner

Edwin Encarnacion over 30.5 HR's -115 Winner even though he was injured

David Ortiz over 23.5 HR's -115 Winner

Prince Fielder under 31.5 HR's +120 Winner Injured

Matt Moore under 13.5 wins -105 Winner Injured

Julio Teheran over 11.5 wins -125 Winner
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So these are all done (Posey needs like 3 hits to lose that one) Injuries affected 7 out of 13 of these, and Edwin still snuck by even though he was injured for a few weeks, so 8 out of the 13 guys were on the DL this year

Will probably do it again, just have to be careful on those overs, and Chris Davis was a ridiculously bad bet. Good job on my unit breakdown too...

 
Did some late night shopping on the NCAA card last night. Didn't stumble across much.

So Fla -2 (This is a sucker play if I ever saw it, Uconn on the road should be a 10 point dog).

Virginia +15 (This team keeps getting no respect)

Georgia State +35 (Not sure Washington should give 35 to anyone right now)

I got this feeling Wazzu is going to keep it within 24 at home vs Oregon. They played them tough last year. I didn't punch anything on this one yet though.

 
"Good said:
I'm very intrigued by the BetLabs subscription for SportsInsights. :whistle:
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So it's 200 bucks a month to come up with your own trends basically? Seems high.

And you don't even get their premium public wagering info with that.

Not sure it's a great deal but who knows. It certainly does look interesting.

 
NFL Power Rankings from ESPN Insider:

s Rankings

1 (tie). Seattle Seahawks (Power rating: 26)
Losing on the road usually doesn't drop a team too much, but losing as a 5-point road favorite does drop them a notch.
Previous rating: 26.5

1 (tie). Denver Broncos (26)
The Broncos are 2-0, but they're actually 0-2 against the spread as they let down bettors as 13.5-point favorites in their 24-17 win over the Chiefs.
Previous rating: 26

3 (tie). San Francisco 49ers (24)
Losing as a 7-point home favorite over the Bears on Sunday night drops them a full point, but that's still third-best overall.
Previous rating: 25

3 (tie). New England Patriots (24)
The Patriots took care of business as 3-point favorites with a 30-7 rout of the Vikings, but they don't get upgraded here.
Previous rating: 24

5 (tie). Green Bay Packers (23.5)
The Packers rallied to beat the Jets 31-24 to push on a closing number of minus-7, but are downgraded a notch on their subpar performance.
Previous rating: 24

5 (tie). Cincinnati Bengals (23.5)
Their dominant 24-10 win over the Falcons as 5.5-point favorites help them continue their rise in the rankings and ratings.
Previous rating: 23

5 (tie). New Orleans Saints (23.5)
The Saints drop again with a 26-24 loss at Cleveland as 5.5-point favorites; the only thing keeping them high up in the rankings is that both losses were on the road.
Previous rating: 24.5

8. San Diego Chargers (23)
Their upset of the Seahawks as 5-point home dogs moves them into the top 10, just behind the top tier of contenders.
Previous rating: 22

9. Arizona Cardinals (22.5)
They were favored over the Giants before Carson Palmer was declared out, but won 25-14 as a 2-point road dog.
Previous rating: 22.5

10. Philadelphia Eagles (21.5)
The Eagles rallied for a second straight game to upset the Colts 30-27 on "Monday Night Football." Their first-half rating would be lower.
Previous rating: 21

​


11. Carolina Panthers (21)
They move up a point after a dominant 24-7 win over Detroit as a 1-point home favorite; the defense is looking like last year's.
Previous rating: 20

12. Indianapolis Colts (20.5)
The Colts lose a heartbreaker Monday night as 3-point home favorite to fall to 0-2; they don't drop as they can play with anyone.
Previous rating: 20.5

13 (tie). Chicago Bears (20)
The Bears move back up as they overcame injuries in a 28-20 upset of the 49ers as 7-point road underdogs Sunday night.
Previous rating: 19.5

13 (tie). Baltimore Ravens (20)
The Ravens bumped up a point with a convincing 26-6 win over the Steelers on Thursday night as just 2.5-point home favorites.
Previous rating: 19

13 (tie). Houston Texans (20)
Houston has had a soft early schedule (Redskins and Raiders so far), but getting the job done with a second straight easy win.
Previous rating: 19

16 (tie). Atlanta Falcons (19.5)
The Falcons dip a little with a 24-10 loss at Cincinnati as 5.5-point road dogs, but the Bengals can make a lot of teams look bad.
Previous rating: 20

16 (tie). Detroit Lions (19.5)
The Lions dip with their lackluster 24-7 loss at Carolina as 1-point road dogs; their previous rout of the Giants isn't looking so good.
Previous rating: 20

16 (tie). Miami Dolphins (19.5)
The Dolphins were unable to build on their upset over the Patriots in Week 1 as they lost 24-10 at Buffalo as 1-point road dogs.
Previous rating: 20

19 (tie). Pittsburgh Steelers (19)
The Steelers fell 26-6 to the Ravens on Thursday and separate themselves here in the rankings.
Previous rating: 19

19 (tie). Washington Redskins (19)
They lost RG III, but Kirk Cousins' performance helps the Redskins improve in the rankings with a 41-10 rout of the Jaguars as 5-point favorites.
Previous rating: 18

19 (tie). Buffalo Bills (19)
The Bills continue climb with a 24-10 win over the Dolphins as 1-point favorites; they are one of only four teams at 2-0 SU and ATS.
Previous rating: 18

​


22 (tie). New York Jets (18.5)
The Jets pushed versus a closing line of plus-7 in their 31-24 loss to the Packers, but covered for backers who bet earlier.
Previous rating: 18

22 (tie). Dallas Cowboys (18.5)
The Cowboys rebounded to upset the Titans 26-10 as 3.5-point road dogs to show they're not as bad as some were saying.
Previous rating: 17

24. Tennessee Titans (18)
The Titans drop a notch with that aforementioned loss to the Cowboys, losing what they gained in their previous upset of the Chiefs.
Previous rating: 18.5

25. Kansas City Chiefs (17.5)
The Chiefs actually played better than expected against the Broncos and covered as 13.5-point road dogs in their 24-17 loss.
Previous rating: 18

26 (tie). Minnesota Vikings (17)
The Vikings dip a bit after a 30-7 loss at New England, but Adrian Peterson's issues are also a part of their downgrade.
Previous rating: 17.5

26 (tie). Cleveland Browns (17)
Their 26-24 upset of the Saints as 5.5-point home underdogs now has them three points higher than their preseason power rating.
Previous rating: 16

28. New York Giants (16.5)
It's probably surprising they haven't dropped more after losing 25-14 as 2-point favorites to a Cardinals team starting a backup quarterback.
Previous rating: 17

29. St. Louis Rams (15.5)
The Rams get bumped up a notch with their 19-17 win over the Buccaneers as 4.5-point road underdogs.
Previous rating: 15

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (15)
The Buccaneers switched places with the Rams after failing to win either of their first two games as home favorites.
Previous rating: 15.5

31 (tie). Jacksonville Jaguars (13.5)
After looking competitive in a Week 1 loss to the Eagles, the Jaguars took a step back with a 41-10 loss to the Redskins as 5-point dogs.
Previous rating: 14

31 (tie). Oakland Raiders (13.5)
The Raiders were also unable to build on a Week 1 cover against the Jets as they were dominated in a 30-14 loss as 3-point dogs to the Texans.
Previous rating: 14

 
Interesting, again from ESPN Insider. I figured AP might be worth 3 points:

The value of Robert Griffin III

The Washington Redskins lost starting quarterback Griffin to a dislocated ankle Sunday but saw their Vegas power ranking improve at one sports book. Backup Kirk Cousins replaced Griffin and led Washington to a 41-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Salmons said he would be bumping up the Redskins' power rating a half-point because Cousins is "a better quarterback" than Griffin.

Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill, said he wouldn't make any adjustment on Washington's rating with Griffin out.

The value of Adrian Peterson

Salmons was following the Peterson story on Twitter on Friday. Peterson, the Minnesota Vikings' star running back, was indicted and arrested on child injury charges and eventually deactivated for Vikings' Week 2 home game against the New England Patriots.

Earlier in the week, Salmons had opened the Patriots as a 3.5-point favorite. The first bet from a respected player was on the Vikings, dropping the line to New England minus-3 (even). That's where the line was at when the Peterson story broke Friday.

"One of the sharps laid New England minus-3 flat for the limit," Salmons said. "So at that point, I figured he wasn't going to play."

The SuperBook, like other Nevada and offshore sports books, moved the point spread up to New England minus-6 following the news. Line-moving money started to trickle in overnight on the Vikings and continued Sunday morning, driving the line back to its original number of minus-3 at most shops.

"It was really an awful over-reaction when the line went all the way to minus-6," Bogdanovich said. "Peterson's probably not worth more than a point or two."

The Patriots won 30-7 to easily cover the spread.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
NFL Power Rankings from ESPN Insider:

s Rankings

16 (tie). Miami Dolphins (19.5)

The Dolphins were unable to build on their upset over the Patriots in Week 1 as they lost 24-10 at Buffalo as 1-point road dogs.

Previous rating: 20

19 (tie). Buffalo Bills (19)

The Bills continue climb with a 24-10 win over the Dolphins as 1-point favorites; they are one of only four teams at 2-0 SU and ATS.

Previous rating: 18
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clear sign these people have no idea what they are doing.

Dolphins moved up 4 spots (from 20 to 16) and passed the Bills after a game in which they were completely dominated in just about all phases?

Also, how do you move from 18 to 19 and "continue to climb"? Are they climbing backwards?

GTFO

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Put your survivor pools on auto-pilot this week. New England in every pool, every spot. It's not often you get a freebie like this. And as I pointed out in the SP suicide pool thread, the only game after this where you'd feel pretty comfortable taking the Pats is week 15, home to Miami. Very tough schedule.

 
Raider Nation said:
Put your survivor pools on auto-pilot this week. New England in every pool, every spot. It's not often you get a freebie like this. And as I pointed out in the SP suicide pool thread, the only game after this where you'd feel pretty comfortable taking the Pats is week 15, home to Miami. Very tough schedule.
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Yep. According to Yahoo!, 65% of people have picked NE this week. No clue what those other 35% are doing.

 
All things being equal.

From here on out, who'd you rather have Forsett or Markus Wheaton for fantasy purposes?

League rewards big plays more than anything else.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
"Good said:
NFL Power Rankings from ESPN Insider:

s Rankings

16 (tie). Miami Dolphins (19.5)

The Dolphins were unable to build on their upset over the Patriots in Week 1 as they lost 24-10 at Buffalo as 1-point road dogs.Previous rating: 20

19 (tie). Buffalo Bills (19)

The Bills continue climb with a 24-10 win over the Dolphins as 1-point favorites; they are one of only four teams at 2-0 SU and ATS.Previous rating: 18
Click to expand...
clear sign these people have no idea what they are doing.

Dolphins moved up 4 spots (from 20 to 16) and passed the Bills after a game in which they were completely dominated in just about all phases?

Also, how do you move from 18 to 19 and "continue to climb"? Are they climbing backwards?

GTFO
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Rating and Ranking are two different numbers.

 
Treynwreck3 said:
Rating and Ranking are two different numbers.
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that helps. still makes no sense to have the Dolphins rated or ranked over the Bills after the ### kicking that was delivered two days ago. they can't even get the score right as it was 29-10 instead of the 24-10 they listed.

 
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