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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

Dan Lambskin said:
Week 5 looking like it could be pretty Wongy
Click to expand...
How many teams do you include in these Wong teasers? Two? What are the odds of hitting a three-team teaser. I count seven games with a spread of 7 (±½). Is that the window? Just from reading this thread for a few years, you guys are going to pick like five or six or seven teams for this thing and get burned by one of them. It only takes one to ream you, right? I'm trying to be devil's advocate because I don't like how it is shaping up. It's hard enough to win a two-team parlay, I know for a fact. But then again I don't do teasers so I could be wong.

 
ChainsawU said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Week 5 looking like it could be pretty Wongy
Click to expand...
How many teams do you include in these Wong teasers? Two? What are the odds of hitting a three-team teaser. I count seven games with a spread of 7 (±½). Is that the window? Just from reading this thread for a few years, you guys are going to pick like five or six or seven teams for this thing and get burned by one of them. It only takes one to ream you, right? I'm trying to be devil's advocate because I don't like how it is shaping up. It's hard enough to win a two-team parlay, I know for a fact. But then again I don't do teasers so I could be wong.
Click to expand...
http://www.onlinefootballbetting.net/wong-teasers/

http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-teaser/

I personally lay off teasing from 7 to 1, or from 3 to 9, I stay strictly within "the window" and off the key numbers.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
ChainsawU said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Week 5 looking like it could be pretty Wongy
Click to expand...
How many teams do you include in these Wong teasers? Two? What are the odds of hitting a three-team teaser. I count seven games with a spread of 7 (±½). Is that the window? Just from reading this thread for a few years, you guys are going to pick like five or six or seven teams for this thing and get burned by one of them. It only takes one to ream you, right? I'm trying to be devil's advocate because I don't like how it is shaping up. It's hard enough to win a two-team parlay, I know for a fact. But then again I don't do teasers so I could be wong.
Click to expand...
http://www.onlinefootballbetting.net/wong-teasers/

http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-teaser/

I personally lay off teasing from 7 to 1, or from 3 to 9, I stay strictly within "the window" and off the key numbers.
Click to expand...
I also don't bet two-legged teasers, as they're barely EV even at -110. (see chart in 2nd link)

 
Good Posting Judge said:
ChainsawU said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Week 5 looking like it could be pretty Wongy
Click to expand...
How many teams do you include in these Wong teasers? Two? What are the odds of hitting a three-team teaser. I count seven games with a spread of 7 (±½). Is that the window? Just from reading this thread for a few years, you guys are going to pick like five or six or seven teams for this thing and get burned by one of them. It only takes one to ream you, right? I'm trying to be devil's advocate because I don't like how it is shaping up. It's hard enough to win a two-team parlay, I know for a fact. But then again I don't do teasers so I could be wong.
Click to expand...
http://www.onlinefootballbetting.net/wong-teasers/

http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-teaser/

I personally lay off teasing from 7 to 1, or from 3 to 9, I stay strictly within "the window" and off the key numbers.
Click to expand...
:goodposting: Sticking with +1.5 to +2.5 and -8.5 to -7.5, and leaving it till Sunday morning so the lines are as "true" as possible doesnt generally leave that many options.

 
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ChainsawU said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Week 5 looking like it could be pretty Wongy
Click to expand...
How many teams do you include in these Wong teasers? Two? What are the odds of hitting a three-team teaser. I count seven games with a spread of 7 (±½). Is that the window? Just from reading this thread for a few years, you guys are going to pick like five or six or seven teams for this thing and get burned by one of them. It only takes one to ream you, right? I'm trying to be devil's advocate because I don't like how it is shaping up. It's hard enough to win a two-team parlay, I know for a fact. But then again I don't do teasers so I could be wong.
Click to expand...
I think the standard is to look for opportunities that cross both the 3 and 7 and play a bunch of 3-team 6pt (+180) teasers

the # of teasers can skyrocket quickly if there are a lot of teams in the window on Sunday mornings.

 
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From Olney on insider

1. The Royals versus the Jon Lester mystique

The left-hander's performance in the postseason last year established him as one of the best October pitchers of his generation. In 13 games over eight series in his career, Lester has a 2.11 ERA, including his work last fall, when he allowed just six earned runs in five starts. This is part of the reason Oakland traded for him; he can thrive on the big stage. He embraces the challenge of the postseason, writes Susan Slusser.

But a different narrative has developed recently among some evaluators: that Lester is not comfortable throwing to first base. He allowed five stolen bases over his final three starts of the season, including four to the Mariners on Sept. 14. The Royals do not hit homers and they don't draw walks, but they led the majors in stolen bases -- by a wide margin -- and figure to be aggressive on the basepaths tonight. Manager Ned Yost will look for chances to put pressure on the A's defense, from the first inning onward, and in a game that might have very little scoring, this could be difference-making.

Most stolen bases allowed by lefties this season Pitcher SBs Pickoff throws Cole Hamels 19 85 Francisco Liriano 19 69 Scott Kazmir 18 63 Jon Lester 16 0
More on Lester's unwillingness to make pickoff moves: Among the 498 pitchers with at least 15 innings pitched this season, Lester was the only one who didn't attempt a single pickoff throw. There were 619 pitchers who attempted at least one pickoff throw this season. Lester threw almost 220 innings without throwing to a base.

Lester allowed 16 stolen bases this season, the fourth-most of any lefty in baseball.

Geovany Soto could start at catcher … even though he hasnot worked with Lester in the past.

2. The Athletics versus their collective psyche

The A's got into the playoffs as the second wild-card team, saved by a safety net that wasn't in place as recently as three years ago. Their collapse was almost epic, with 30 losses in their last 46 games, and even after they clinched a playoff spot, some of their players spoke of relief. They desperately need to win this game to give themselves a chance to restore some confidence, and to breathe just a little in a longer series. Let's not forget that history is littered with teams who struggled down the stretch and then went on to win the World Series.

3. Josh Harrison versus Madison Bumgarner

Pirates manager Clint Hurdle noted earlier this year that protection comes in front of a great hitter such as Andrew McCutchen, not behind him, and for the Pirates, that starts with Harrison, who ranked 15th in OPS among all qualified hitters in the second half of the season with an .887 mark. He will get top-10 MVP votes for the work he did this year. Small sample size alert: Harrison is 4-for-5 in his career against Bumgarner.

4. Madison Bumgarner versus Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen seemed to climb to another level of aggressiveness with his swing in the second half of the season, looking like a lumberjack attacking a spruce. He had a 1.041 OPS in September. You'd assume the Giants' hope would be to avoid McCutchen, which is why the production in front of and behind -- with Neil Walker and the red-hot Starling Marte -- the All-Star center fielder could be crucial. Marte fell just seven points shy of having the majors' best OPS in the second half.

5. Edinson Volquez versus The Moment

What a journey it has been for the right-hander, from can't-miss youngster to having a fastball that didn't miss enough bats to being one of the few veterans who wasn't helped by pitching in San Diego. He had a 6.01 ERA in 27 starts for the Padres last year, yet the Pirates decided he was worth a reclamation investment, and voila, Volquez found himself midseason. Since getting blown out in a start June 18, he has a 1.85 ERA, which is the second-best ERA in the majors over that time, behind a guy you might've heard of, Clayton Kershaw.

So while Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole have more chits with the Pirates, Volquez actually has pitched better over the past half-season.

Will it last? Can he maintain his command? We'll see. On Monday, he was officially picked as the starter for Wednesday's game.

6. Adam Dunn's game-changing swing versus Adam Dunn

As one evaluator said, if James Shields makes a mistake and gets the ball up, Dunn can win what's expected to be a low-scoring game with one swing, because he has the power to hit the ball over the largest outfield in the AL -- or over the fountains, for that matter. In his time with the A's, he has been as advertised, with a couple of homers in 66 at-bats, a lot of walks and 27 strikeouts. Against Shields, he is 7-for-35 in his career, with 16 strikeouts and one homer.

Here in 2014, there aren't a lot of huge power hitters. Dunn still can be, in his first postseason appearance.

7. Jon Lester versus his catcher

In Lester's time with the Red Sox, he sometimes would spin into anger -- at a close call he didn't get from the umpire, perhaps, or some other outside issue -- and get swallowed up by his own emotion. Last year, David Ross did a nice job of guiding Lester through those dark moments. Soto is expected to catch instead of Derek Norris, and it'll be interesting to see if a catcher with little history with Lester can rapidly develop a good working rapport.

8. James Shields versus Josh Reddick

As Oakland manager Bob Melvin knows, Reddick can be incredibly streaky, and it just so happens the outfielder is at a peak heading into this wild-card game, with 12 hits, including a homer, in his past 25 at-bats. And it just so happens Reddick has a good history against Shields -- three homers among seven hits in 22 at-bats -- which should further help his confidence.

As for Shields, he's an adrenaline junkie, writes Andy McCullough.

9. Hunter Pence versus his slump

Pence was a National League All-Star for his fine play in the first half of the season, and he carried that into August, hitting .314 during the month. But he has floundered terribly in September, with his OPS plummeting to .471. When he slumps, more movement and anxiety comes into his swing, evaluators say, and it can be difficult for him to break out of it. Pence had two hits in the Giants' last 11 games in the regular season, three multihit games for theentire month and just one extra-base hit since Sept. 1.

They could win today without him, of course, but it's hard to imagine San Francisco succeeding in October if his slump continues. A turnaround would be handy, beginning Wednesday.

10. The Giants' leadoff hitters versus the specter of Angel Pagan

There was no getting around a very simple truth for the Giants after learning that Pagan needed back surgery last week. When he was in the lineup this summer, they were one of the best teams in the majors, with a 56-35 record. And when he was out of the lineup, they were a sub-.500 team (32-39). Giants manager Bruce Bochy has tried different players in that leadoff spot, and if you had a good suggestion, he would listen to it. Heck, he could use anybody who might get on base once or twice a game, just to ensure that Buster Posey isn't batting with two outs and nobody on base.

More wild-card coverage: Bumgarner looms as a giant obstacle, writes Bill Brink. Billy Beane's legacy will take a major hit if Oakland loses, writes Ann Killion.

Bochy has the right touch in the postseason, writes John Shea. Travis Ishikawa is right backwhere he started.

 
I play 4 and 5-legs when possible, but agree with gmbacm about waiting until Sunday.

But you're right Chain, it can all go to #### pretty fast. By no means should anyone bet one of their normal units on each leg.

 
Butler career vs Lester 28AB, .143 avg, .273obp, .179 slg%

Reddick career vs Shields 22AB, .318 avg, .318obp, .865 slg% (3 hrs)

Most total bases/game Reddick v Butler: Reddick -115

 
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Now that you mention it, I did have to play with the filter a bit to not get every reply. I think instead of using the user profile web address in the doesn't have filter, I just used the user name.

 
swirvenirvin said:
I'm grabbing Buffalo at +800 to win the division. Bills have a good running game, decent defense and no Manuel to turn the ball over and suck anymore.

Also throwing a little on Dolphins at +550

Article just into a little detail on how bad the Patriots have been the fact their SOS through 4 games has been 30th and ranks 3rd the rest of the way

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/week-4-dvoa-ratings
Click to expand...
If we are just fading the Pats which we are I guess a case could be made for Jets +1500 too.

 
Crazy story coming out of FL.

SIL had a baby 3 weeks ago. Hubby was moving baby in swing yesterday, swing broke and baby fell, hit head on bar. Baby to ER, XRay shows no damage, baby seems fine. Family went home. This AM docs call back, PED radiologist saw 2 skull fractures. Back to ER, CT scans. Miami PED Dr said baby needs to stay in hospital for monitoring/possible surgery. In the meantime DCF gets involved, bust into their home, forces drug tests for mom/dad and makes other family members sign waivers that dad will not be alone with either child. He burns herb, otherwise nothing. No history of abuse. DCF going absolutely ape#### on them for an accident. mom/dad already in pieces as is due to the situation. All the while baby showing no signs of any trauma. No brain swelling, no bleeding, in good spirits.

Right now the plane has crashed into the side of the mountain.

Less strikeouts please.

 
got_nugs said:
Crazy story coming out of FL.

SIL had a baby 3 weeks ago. Hubby was moving baby in swing yesterday, swing broke and baby fell, hit head on bar. Baby to ER, XRay shows no damage, baby seems fine. Family went home. This AM docs call back, PED radiologist saw 2 skull fractures. Back to ER, CT scans. Miami PED Dr said baby needs to stay in hospital for monitoring/possible surgery. In the meantime DCF gets involved, bust into their home, forces drug tests for mom/dad and makes other family members sign waivers that dad will not be alone with either child. He burns herb, otherwise nothing. No history of abuse. DCF going absolutely ape#### on them for an accident. mom/dad already in pieces as is due to the situation. All the while baby showing no signs of any trauma. No brain swelling, no bleeding, in good spirits.

Right now the plane has crashed into the side of the mountain.

Less strikeouts please.
Click to expand...
This is the stuff that makes me happy my kids are older and should never have to deal with this nonsense.

 
Sorry to hear that, nugs. Glad to hear that the baby is alright, man. That's the most important.

The SIL/BIL might have a rough road ahead, for no reason whatsoever being that this is an accident. T&P man, no reason for the trouble and I hope they come out alright along with their child.

 
Yeah, it's nuts. I didn't want to post it cause i'm not looking for sympathy and every other day is seems like i'm posting something silly like this.....just an outside observer on this one but that DCF angle is just crazy. Thought i'd share cause it's interesting.

 
got_nugs said:
Crazy story coming out of FL.

SIL had a baby 3 weeks ago. Hubby was moving baby in swing yesterday, swing broke and baby fell, hit head on bar. Baby to ER, XRay shows no damage, baby seems fine. Family went home. This AM docs call back, PED radiologist saw 2 skull fractures. Back to ER, CT scans. Miami PED Dr said baby needs to stay in hospital for monitoring/possible surgery. In the meantime DCF gets involved, bust into their home, forces drug tests for mom/dad and makes other family members sign waivers that dad will not be alone with either child. He burns herb, otherwise nothing. No history of abuse. DCF going absolutely ape#### on them for an accident. mom/dad already in pieces as is due to the situation. All the while baby showing no signs of any trauma. No brain swelling, no bleeding, in good spirits.

Right now the plane has crashed into the side of the mountain.

So sorry for the drama. F'ing DCF (assuming that's like Child Protective Services here) can be a #####. Always seems like they swing and miss at the good pitches and take take take at the f'ing losers that need their services. Good luck.

Less strikeouts please.
Click to expand...
 
Hey Bender!! You're cool as #### but I have to mess with you. You complain all the time about not being attacked and you just got 3-starred. Lol.

 
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