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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

Had a decent day thanks to Rude, but here were my losses tonight:

Wagner by 1 tackle

Wilson by 0.5 completions

Harvin by 1 catch

Cousins by 1.5 rush yds

Neat.

 
Frostillicus said:
Had a decent day thanks to Rude, but here were my losses tonight:

Wagner by 1 tackle

Wilson by 0.5 completions

Harvin by 1 catch

Cousins by 1.5 rush yds

Neat.
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i threw small amount on a 8 props on the local. Think they went 1-7 with similar outcomes.. Sure if fun.

I did manage to win by .4 vs a guy who had Paul, and got -3 from cincy last night

 
Since 2013 Thursday totals are 16-6 O/U (.727) in the NFL. That includes three games last Thanksgiving. Since 2013, including Thanksgiving, Thursday totals of 49 or less in the NFL are 16-3 O/U (.842). NFL totals land on 45 about 2.9% of the time, compared to landing on 46 about 1.5 % of the time. Assuming the probability of winning is exactly 50% without buying points, buying to 45 should increase the probability to 52.9%, so the fair price for 45 should be about -112, but I bought it anyway. link1 link2

Colts/Texans o45 -130

 
Keeping track of stuff like a responsible gambler is the worst. Turns out football is just destroying me and the smart thing would be to quit and wait for college hoops. But Bovada has those bonuses if you bet enough each week.

 
Raider Nation said:
ghostguy123 said:
Gotta love "live betting". Hedged late in the 3rd quarter taking Washington +10.5........won both.
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Until you wish it never existed.
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Nah, I only use it to hedge on bets I have a bad feeling about. Sometimes I waste money using it, but for the most part it has been beneficial.

Had a chance to take Washington +19.5 in the 1st quarter. That isnt even a hedge really, that woulda just been a good move since I had Seattle at -7.

 
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Since last season the Broncos are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS when they are lined ≤-7 away (avg line -8.8). The ATS loss was the 99-point game in Dallas (that we cashed DAL +7½) on Oct 06. Peyton threw exactly 4 TD in each of those games against only one interception (versus Dallas).

 
You can tell both ECU and Marahall have reached auto play status this year. Both opened on the wrong side of a key number and went up from there.

 
Old trend alert, because the last time the Packers went to Florida to play football was Nov 08, 2009. But they have gone 3-9 SU and 4-8 ATS (avg line +1) in Florida since 1998. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in Florida (avg line -3.7) since Favre left. Home dogs of 3 or less coming off a bye are 19-20 SU and 19-19-1 ATS since 1998, so you might not need the 3 points with Miami if that's the side you want.

 
Just based on degeneracy and line movement I got some Louisville +10½ -120, so I guess that's what I'm watching on Saturday since it's on the TV. Also New Mexico +7 -130 is on the TV also. FWIW, Boyd says it's slightly okay to buy from 9½ to 10 in college if you want to, as long as it only costs ten cents. He says nothing about buying to 10½ though:

Cost To Buy a Half Point: 10 Cents 20 Cents 25 CentsSpread Buy to %Lands # Loss to push Added Losses Added Wins Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Profit/Loss2.5 3 7.50% 640 48 2720 4800 2080 -640 -2000-3.5 -3 5.92% 743 44 3275 4400 1125 -2150 -3787.56.5 7 5.56% 666 37 2960 3700 740 -2220 -3700-7.5 -7 5.66% 495 28 2195 2800 605 -1590 -2687.59.5 10 4.56% 307 14 1395 1400 5 -1390 -2087.5-10.5 -10 4.89% 327 16 1475 1600 125 -1350 -2087.5It would be pretty sweet to be able to buy from 2½ to 3 for only ten cents.

 
tjnc09 said:
I keep looking at the Cardinals ML. It's amazing (concerning) that Vegas still made Kershaw a huge favorite for this game.
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Yeah, especially since Miller's finished off an otherwise mediocre year pretty strongly. And the Cards have traditionally had more success against Kershaw, relatively speaking.

 
mquinnjr said:
swirvenirvin said:
Phil Steele‏@philsteele04232 mins32 minutes ago

Kent State lost their top 2 QB's on final series last week and both Colin Reardon and Nathan Strock are doubtful for UMass this week.
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Crap. Thanks for the heads up, but OTB at my book.
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Yeah, they yanked it off the board pretty quickly yesterday once the news came out. Kent State has been scoring about 11 pts. per game as it is, but now the third-string QB is a former walk-on TE.

 
Frostillicus said:
Keeping track of stuff like a responsible gambler is the worst. Turns out football is just destroying me and the smart thing would be to quit and wait for college hoops. But Bovada has those bonuses if you bet enough each week.
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The one i really tried to dedicate too was the shots on goals props. ended up paying off good too, but then sportsbook cut me like 4 week later. but i had so many friggin sheets of paper laying around, and was tracking which officials called the most penalties, etc. Was fun, but holy hell it was some work

 
ghostguy123 said:
Raider Nation said:
ghostguy123 said:
Gotta love "live betting". Hedged late in the 3rd quarter taking Washington +10.5........won both.
Click to expand...
Until you wish it never existed.
Click to expand...
Nah, I only use it to hedge on bets I have a bad feeling about. Sometimes I waste money using it, but for the most part it has been beneficial.

Had a chance to take Washington +19.5 in the 1st quarter. That isnt even a hedge really, that woulda just been a good move since I had Seattle at -7.
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I sais this too when i first started with live betting. Give it time......

 
modogg said:
ghostguy123 said:
Raider Nation said:
ghostguy123 said:
Gotta love "live betting". Hedged late in the 3rd quarter taking Washington +10.5........won both.
Click to expand...
Until you wish it never existed.
Click to expand...
Nah, I only use it to hedge on bets I have a bad feeling about. Sometimes I waste money using it, but for the most part it has been beneficial.

Had a chance to take Washington +19.5 in the 1st quarter. That isnt even a hedge really, that woulda just been a good move since I had Seattle at -7.
Click to expand...
I sais this too when i first started with live betting. Give it time......
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:lol: Truth. But I at least realized quic$ly that it's extremely stupid to live bet a game you're not watching. :bag:

 
"Good said:
tjnc09 said:
I keep looking at the Cardinals ML. It's amazing (concerning) that Vegas still made Kershaw a huge favorite for this game.
Click to expand...
Yeah, especially since Miller's finished off an otherwise mediocre year pretty strongly. And the Cards have traditionally had more success against Kershaw, relatively speaking.
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Miller's career numbers at home are very good, but only has 1 inning of postseason experience at home (3 innings total w the other two against the 2012 SF Giants). I could see both pitchers getting tagged today but STL at such a plus number seems too easy to take. If I had to punch something officially now, Id take STL and the over 6.5. But I have a few hours to talk myself out of what seems too obvious.

 
If I had known Kershaw was going today, I wouldn't have played the STL series and instead played the ML today - but that bet needs to be completely irrelevant to my decision.

 
I posted about this a few years ago in this thread, hitting it again

Under 3 H/R/E 1st inning -180 in STL today, it's not as sunny in STL as it was last time I played this but nasty shadows at 5pm EST start time. Kershaw on the mound doesn't hurt either.

 
lumpy19 said:
I posted about this a few years ago in this thread, hitting it again

Under 3 H/R/E 1st inning -180 in STL today, it's not as sunny in STL as it was last time I played this but nasty shadows at 5pm EST start time. Kershaw on the mound doesn't hurt either.
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Also first plate appearance for Holliday

Strikeout +500, weird line

 
lumpy19 said:
I posted about this a few years ago in this thread, hitting it again

Under 3 H/R/E 1st inning -180 in STL today, it's not as sunny in STL as it was last time I played this but nasty shadows at 5pm EST start time. Kershaw on the mound doesn't hurt either.
Click to expand...
what book?

 
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lumpy19 said:
I posted about this a few years ago in this thread, hitting it again

Under 3 H/R/E 1st inning -180 in STL today, it's not as sunny in STL as it was last time I played this but nasty shadows at 5pm EST start time. Kershaw on the mound doesn't hurt either.
Click to expand...
it that a still the case this late in the year?

 
That seems like a lot of juice to pay banking on shadows. Top of the LA lineup has been very good against Miller and Kershaw is mortal in the postseason. Carpenter is seeing beach ball sized pitches from Kershaw right now.

Good luck though

 
Played Miller +146. Laying off the total as I can see either the over / under covering but really like the price on STL.

gl

 
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