lumpy19
Footballguy
Yeah that sucked but I had a much larger bet on indy +1.5 2h, that's the one that stung
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
derek245583
Footballguy
Did some more PM research yesterday, where I further looked at his success overall with totals. Prior to this season, I posted that PM had the following success with totals:
2011-2013: 59% on all suggested plays for +51u
A few weeks back, I noticed that SEC overs were hitting alot, so I dug into that and historically they hit at around a 67ish% clip.
This week, I decided to take a look at his overall success with each conference. The results are below, grouped into 3 different buckets (1) 2011-2013 (2) 2014 (3) Total
I also noted whether each group had a relevant sample size (at least 30) so I could perform some back testing.
2011 - 2013 2014 TotalConferenc Bet W L % Sample Size W L % W L % Sample Size ACC Unders 27 8 77.14% yes 6 2 75.00% 33 10 76.74% yes MAC Unders 11 5 68.75% no 2 5 28.57% 13 10 56.52% noBig East Unders 28 14 66.67% yes 4 4 50.00% 32 18 64.00% yes PAC12 Overs 22 11 66.67% yes 0 0 #DIV/0! 22 11 66.67% yes SEC Overs 45 24 65.22% yes 15 9 62.50% 60 33 64.52% yes MAC Overs 14 8 63.64% no 5 2 71.43% 19 10 65.52% no Big 10 Unders 36 24 60.00% yes 1 6 14.29% 37 30 55.22% yes IND Unders 6 4 60.00% no 0 0 #DIV/0! 6 4 60.00% no MW Overs 18 12 60.00% yes 3 0 100.00% 21 12 63.64% yesBig East Overs 4 3 57.14% no 0 2 0.00% 4 5 44.44% no ACC Overs 5 4 55.56% no 0 1 0.00% 5 5 50.00% no SUN Overs 15 13 53.57% no 3 4 42.86% 18 17 51.43% yes PAC12 Unders 8 7 53.33% no 0 0 #DIV/0! 8 7 53.33% no Big 12 Overs 22 20 52.38% yes 3 1 75.00% 25 21 54.35% yes CUSA Overs 14 13 51.85% no 4 3 57.14% 18 16 52.94% yes Big 10 Overs 11 11 50.00% no 4 1 80.00% 15 12 55.56% no Big 12 Unders 6 6 50.00% no 0 2 0.00% 6 8 42.86% no CUSA Unders 13 13 50.00% no 4 8 33.33% 17 21 44.74% yes IND Overs 7 7 50.00% no 3 1 75.00% 10 8 55.56% no SEC Unders 22 22 50.00% yes 4 4 50.00% 26 26 50.00% yes SUN Unders 5 5 50.00% no 1 1 50.00% 6 6 50.00% no MW Unders 6 7 46.15% no 0 0 #DIV/0! 6 7 46.15% noTest 1
I pretended that it was pre-season and I was running this analysis to determine what I would bet for the year:
1. Filtered for all groups that qualified for adequate sample size
2. Eliminated the groups below 60%, which left me with 6 buckets that hit historically at 65.4% (176-269)
3. I then saw how it would have faired if I blindly bet those groups for 2014: 58% - which is still a long term winner, but far removed from the 65.4% clip
4. I then broke this group into the 3 obvious tiers by looking for natural breaks in the results to see if there was a stronger correlation with the 2014 results (2014 results in green)
6. I then ran all of #s if I would have played every play in each of the tiers (28-18, 61%)
Conclusion
Assuming that those groups of an adequate Sample Size holds true, t over the course of the season there would be a natural move towards the long term (the total column in the table above), so I'll be adjusting units accordingly. For now, I'm thinking Tier 1 - 2u, Tier 2 - 1u, Tier 3 - .5u
*It's also worth noting that MAC overs are hitting at a 65% clip (total) and have 29 total games, so even if they lose their next game or 2, they'll be in that tier 2
This week's plays
Tier 1 - N/A
Tier 2 - Bama/Ark o56, Auburn/MSU o64, Buff/East Mi o58
Tier 3 - N/A
Thoughts?
2011-2013: 59% on all suggested plays for +51u
A few weeks back, I noticed that SEC overs were hitting alot, so I dug into that and historically they hit at around a 67ish% clip.
This week, I decided to take a look at his overall success with each conference. The results are below, grouped into 3 different buckets (1) 2011-2013 (2) 2014 (3) Total
I also noted whether each group had a relevant sample size (at least 30) so I could perform some back testing.
2011 - 2013 2014 TotalConferenc Bet W L % Sample Size W L % W L % Sample Size ACC Unders 27 8 77.14% yes 6 2 75.00% 33 10 76.74% yes MAC Unders 11 5 68.75% no 2 5 28.57% 13 10 56.52% noBig East Unders 28 14 66.67% yes 4 4 50.00% 32 18 64.00% yes PAC12 Overs 22 11 66.67% yes 0 0 #DIV/0! 22 11 66.67% yes SEC Overs 45 24 65.22% yes 15 9 62.50% 60 33 64.52% yes MAC Overs 14 8 63.64% no 5 2 71.43% 19 10 65.52% no Big 10 Unders 36 24 60.00% yes 1 6 14.29% 37 30 55.22% yes IND Unders 6 4 60.00% no 0 0 #DIV/0! 6 4 60.00% no MW Overs 18 12 60.00% yes 3 0 100.00% 21 12 63.64% yesBig East Overs 4 3 57.14% no 0 2 0.00% 4 5 44.44% no ACC Overs 5 4 55.56% no 0 1 0.00% 5 5 50.00% no SUN Overs 15 13 53.57% no 3 4 42.86% 18 17 51.43% yes PAC12 Unders 8 7 53.33% no 0 0 #DIV/0! 8 7 53.33% no Big 12 Overs 22 20 52.38% yes 3 1 75.00% 25 21 54.35% yes CUSA Overs 14 13 51.85% no 4 3 57.14% 18 16 52.94% yes Big 10 Overs 11 11 50.00% no 4 1 80.00% 15 12 55.56% no Big 12 Unders 6 6 50.00% no 0 2 0.00% 6 8 42.86% no CUSA Unders 13 13 50.00% no 4 8 33.33% 17 21 44.74% yes IND Overs 7 7 50.00% no 3 1 75.00% 10 8 55.56% no SEC Unders 22 22 50.00% yes 4 4 50.00% 26 26 50.00% yes SUN Unders 5 5 50.00% no 1 1 50.00% 6 6 50.00% no MW Unders 6 7 46.15% no 0 0 #DIV/0! 6 7 46.15% noTest 1
I pretended that it was pre-season and I was running this analysis to determine what I would bet for the year:
1. Filtered for all groups that qualified for adequate sample size
2. Eliminated the groups below 60%, which left me with 6 buckets that hit historically at 65.4% (176-269)
3. I then saw how it would have faired if I blindly bet those groups for 2014: 58% - which is still a long term winner, but far removed from the 65.4% clip
4. I then broke this group into the 3 obvious tiers by looking for natural breaks in the results to see if there was a stronger correlation with the 2014 results (2014 results in green)
- Tier 1: ACC unders (77%, 75%)
- Tier 2: Big East Unders (67%, 50%), Pac12 Overs (67%, N/A), SEC Overs (65%, 63%)
- Tier 3: Big 10 Unders (60%, 14%), MW Overs (60%, 100%)
6. I then ran all of #s if I would have played every play in each of the tiers (28-18, 61%)
Conclusion
Assuming that those groups of an adequate Sample Size holds true, t over the course of the season there would be a natural move towards the long term (the total column in the table above), so I'll be adjusting units accordingly. For now, I'm thinking Tier 1 - 2u, Tier 2 - 1u, Tier 3 - .5u
*It's also worth noting that MAC overs are hitting at a 65% clip (total) and have 29 total games, so even if they lose their next game or 2, they'll be in that tier 2
This week's plays
Tier 1 - N/A
Tier 2 - Bama/Ark o56, Auburn/MSU o64, Buff/East Mi o58
Tier 3 - N/A
Thoughts?
I liked the (lack of) effort from Hopkins. Kept those Colts LBs off the field so they couldn't get any more tackles.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Screw that, he did the right thing, he was pissed he played the whole game and fitzpatrick gave him 2 targets. Hey I just ran 35 routes and my Qb thinks im invisible, well #### him im not going after his fumble
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
No, he puts out lines on everything, but only recommends a "normal (i.e. full unit)" play if his pick% is 57.2% or greater. I just ran all the data and found that he's only profitable long term in CFB on totals. This exercise above is further segregation of that data, and obviously; in retrospect I wish I would have run this pre-season.
Last edited by a moderator:
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Go ahead and cue the post-game sound clip from Jason Garrett/Jerry Jones: "We're just focused on going home and getting to work on the Redskins and Giants." If Jimmy Johnson was coaching then I would give Dallas a chance this week. But it's been at least a decade since they have been the type of team who can fly 1700 miles to go do work. They don't have the courage that it takes to face the type of pain and adversity they are about to experience.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Steele: Week 7 picks | Harris: Best bets | CFB PickCenter | ESPN Chalk
Each week during the 2014 college football season, I will offer my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Last week my picks went 7-3 straight up and 5-5 against the spread. My overall record stands at 47-13 SU and 31-28-1 ATS.
After one of the wildest weekends in college football history, Week 7 brings us five more marquee matchups, and at least two more teams are guaranteed to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Auburn has won 11 of the past 13 meetings in the series. Last year, the Tigers were fortunate to escape with the win over the Bulldogs as they got an 11-yard touchdown pass with less than 10 seconds left to pull out a 24-20 win.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
Last week Auburn crushed LSU 41-7, as the Tigers from the Plains (minus-7.5) were my best bet of the week on ESPNU's "The Edge" (which airs every Friday at 1 p.m. ET). They led 31-7 at halftime and QB Nick Marshall had his best game this year, accounting for 207 passing yards and 119 rushing yards with four total touchdowns. Mississippi State crushed an overrated Texas A&M team 48-31. The score looks closer than it actually was, as there were two late Aggies touchdowns.
Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott is clearly one of the Heisman favorites at this point, and could be the best player on the field in this one, with 1,678 total yards and 19 total touchdowns to date. However, I feel Auburn is the more complete team, especially on the defensive side as it is allowing just 307 yards per game (including just 285 and 280 yards to Kansas State and LSU, respectively), while Mississippi State is allowing 426 YPG.
The Tigers also have been on the big stage repeatedly the past few years and thrived, while every week is new territory for the up-and-coming Bulldogs. The Tigers will make their case for being No. 1.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 34, Mississippi State 27
The last time the Horned Frogs visited Waco, they had a plus-6 turnover margin and rolled to a 49-21 win. Last year, Baylor got two interception returns for touchdowns; down 41-38 with 11 seconds left, TCU was intercepted in the Baylor end zone to seal the deal. Remarkably, TCU outgained Baylor 267-206 in passing yardage in that game, and has held the Baylor offense to 211 yards per game less than its average in the past two meetings.
This year in my college football preview, I labeled the Horned Frogs as my No. 1 most improved team in the country, and they validated that claim last week in their 37-33 upset over Oklahoma. QB Trevone Boykin has thrived in their new high-tempo offense, and he threw for 318 yards last week. The defense remains stingy as ever, allowing just 279 YPG (No. 7 in the country).
On the other side, Baylor QB Bryce Petty had arguably the worst game of his career last week, hitting just 7 of 22 passes for 111 yards, and now faces a defense that could be even better. While the Bears have covered their past 12 home games by 20 points per contest, I think TCU is capable of slowing down the Baylor offense here, and I look for the Frogs to keep it closer than the Vegas experts think.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: Baylor 34, TCU 31
The Aggies are a perfect 6-0 all time in this series, and in each of the past two years have pulled out three-point wins at Ole Miss. While this will be the third trip to College Station for Ole Miss, it will be their first since 1975.
[+] Enlarge
Marvin Gentry/USA TODAY SportsAfter a strong start to the season, Kenny Hill threw three interceptions in Week 6.
With last week's 23-17 upset win over Alabama, the Rebels are 5-0 for the first time since 1962. However, this week could be the bigger test to see where Hugh Freeze's program stacks up nationally, as they are once again the underdog here on the road. QB Bo Wallace raised his game when it mattered most in the fourth quarter last week, with two touchdown passes -- including the game winner -- but it is the Rebels' defense that has them in contention for a playoff berth, as they are allowing just 278 YPG (No. 5 nationally) and 10 PPG (No. 2).
On the other side, the Texas A&M defense is improved from last year, but is still allowing 489 YPG (when you take out SMU and Lamar). Despite putting up big yards, QB Kenny Hill has now completed less than 60 percent of his passes in each of the past two weeks, and threw three interceptions in Week 6.
While I like Texas A&M's situation here -- playing at home for the first time since Sept. 13 and catching Ole Miss off the big upset win -- I just feel the Rebels are the far superior team, and I will always take an underdog with the much better defense.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 34, Texas A&M 31
Oregon has won 10 of the past 12 meetings in the series. Last year, UCLA was without its top running back and had a banged-up offensive line, but surprisingly ran for 219 yards. The 42-14 final score was a tad misleading, as it was tied at 14 at halftime and Oregon didn't take the lead until 2:47 left in the third quarter.
Entering the season, this game appeared to be a preview of the Pac-12 championship game, but now neither team is in first place in its own division. Before last week, it also appeared that we would see a matchup of two undefeated teams, but both were upset on their home field. In a sense, this is like an elimination game in that the loser can kiss any solid chance at an appearance in the College Football Playoff goodbye.
Both offensive lines have struggled (UCLA is No. 123 in sacks allowed, Oregon is No. 110), which has led to both Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley being banged up. The Ducks have allowed at least 439 yards to every FBS team they've played, and the Bruins are averaging 465 YPG on offense. Look for the Bruins, who have the slightly better defense, to pull out a close one at home and remain in the playoff hunt.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 37, Oregon 34
These two met in Columbia two years ago in Missouri's inaugural SEC game. The Tigers led 17-9 in the third quarter, but Georgia outscored them 32-3 down the stretch; it was somewhat misleading, as Missouri had a 371-355 yardage edge. Last year, Georgia came in missing two running backs and three of its top four receivers, then had four turnovers in a 41-26 loss.
This marks a battle of the top two teams in the SEC East. UGA is coming off a 44-17 win over Vanderbilt in which Heisman hopeful RB Todd Gurley rushed for 163 yards and completed the longest pass for the Bulldogs this year (50 yards). On the other side, Missouri is fresh off a bye, and won its last game 21-20 at South Carolina, rallying from a 20-7 fourth-quarter deficit.
Obviously, the matchup to watch here is Gurley going up against a Missouri defense that allowed 241 rush yards to Indiana and the Hoosiers' great RB Tevin Coleman in the upset loss. Another reason to like the Bulldogs here is that they are getting much healthier at the WR spot, which could make their offense even more potent. Georgia will take the lead in the SEC East.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 34, Missouri 27
Saturday, noon ET, ESPN
The Seminoles finally got their first cover of the 2014 season last week, dropping Wake Forest 43-3. Now they take on a reeling Syracuse team that has dropped three straight and lost last week to Louisville 28-6 at home. The bigger loss for them was QB Terrel Hunt being declared out for the next month or so (fractured fibula), and that's not good news taking on a Florida State defense that could be finally hitting its stride. The Orange allowed Notre Dame QB Everett Golson to hit 25 consecutive passes, and now they take on Jameis Winston and all of the Seminoles' speed on a fast track inside a dome. Despite some injury concerns with RB Karlos Williams and WR Rashad Greene, I look for FSU to roll here and set up a huge showdown against Notre Dame next weekend in Tallahassee.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 38, Syracuse 10
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Crimson Tide have won seven in a row in this series, and have outscored the Razorbacks 104-0 the past two years. While Arkansas comes in fresh off a bye, the Crimson Tide should be plenty motivated trying to rebound from last week's blown fourth-quarter lead at Ole Miss. An advantage for the Tide is that they won't have to worry about a hurry-up spread attack this week, as the Hogs' physical brand of offense is tailor-made for a Tide defense that enters with the No. 3 rush defense in the country. Alabama is certainly not out of playoff contention yet, and I look for them to get a comfortable bounce-back win against a team it has dominated for the better part of the past decade.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 37, Arkansas 20
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
This will mark the first time since 1989 that neither team comes into this game ranked, and QB issues are the problem for both teams. Florida starting QB Jeff Driskel was supposed to be improved this year with new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper, but that has not been the case, and he was benched last week in favor of true freshman Treon Harris. After leading the comeback win over Tennessee, Harris was suspended indefinitely this week, so Driskel is back in as the starter. LSU is coming off its worst loss ever under coach Les Miles, falling 41-7 at Auburn. True freshman Brandon Harris got his first career start, but he was benched in favor of former starter Anthony Jennings, and the two will compete for the starting job this week. Despite the QB issues, I do like the home underdog Gators in this one, as they have the better defense and the Tigers are playing a game for the seventh consecutive week (and on their second straight road trip). The home team has won the past three in this series by 16 PPG.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 23, LSU 20
Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
USC has dominated this series as of late, winning 10 of the past 12 meetings. The Wildcats are surprisingly the lone undefeated Pac-12 team remaining, as they are 5-0 for the first time since 1998 and are coming off an upset win at Oregon. Notably, that was the largest upset, spread-wise, of the year (Arizona was plus-24). USC is coming off the Hail Mary loss to Arizona State, and has given up 500-plus yards in two of its past three games. The Trojans have been susceptible against the run (452 rush yards allowed to Boston College) and the pass (510 pass yards allowed to Arizona State). The Wildcats' offense led by QB Anu Solomon (382 total YPG) and true freshman RB Nick Wilson (574 rush yards) should be able to take advantage, as the Wildcats are averaging 640 YPG at home this year.
ATS pick: Arizona
Score: Arizona 31, USC 28
Saturday, noon ET, ABC
After losing to the Sooners by a combined 80 points in 2011 and 2012, the Longhorns pulled off the upset 36-20 last year in Mack Brown's final season. Last week, Texas played much better than its 28-7 loss to Baylor indicated. They had a 190-124 yardage edge at halftime, but trailed 7-0 thanks to Baylor getting a blocked field goal return for a touchdown; Texas also had a mishandled snap at the Baylor 1-yard line late in the half. While the offense has struggled, the defense seems legit, as it limited Baylor QB Bryce Petty to just 111 pass yards and a 32 percent completion rate (Petty's lowest totals of his career). However, coach Bob Stoops and the Sooners come in off an upset loss to TCU, and it should be noted that Stoops & Co. have not lost back-to-back games in the regular season since his first year in Norman in 1999.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 30, Texas 13
Each week during the 2014 college football season, I will offer my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Last week my picks went 7-3 straight up and 5-5 against the spread. My overall record stands at 47-13 SU and 31-28-1 ATS.
After one of the wildest weekends in college football history, Week 7 brings us five more marquee matchups, and at least two more teams are guaranteed to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten.
No. 2 Auburn Tigers (-2.5) at No. 3 Mississippi State BulldogsSaturday, 3:30 p.m. ETAuburn has won 11 of the past 13 meetings in the series. Last year, the Tigers were fortunate to escape with the win over the Bulldogs as they got an 11-yard touchdown pass with less than 10 seconds left to pull out a 24-20 win.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
Last week Auburn crushed LSU 41-7, as the Tigers from the Plains (minus-7.5) were my best bet of the week on ESPNU's "The Edge" (which airs every Friday at 1 p.m. ET). They led 31-7 at halftime and QB Nick Marshall had his best game this year, accounting for 207 passing yards and 119 rushing yards with four total touchdowns. Mississippi State crushed an overrated Texas A&M team 48-31. The score looks closer than it actually was, as there were two late Aggies touchdowns.
Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott is clearly one of the Heisman favorites at this point, and could be the best player on the field in this one, with 1,678 total yards and 19 total touchdowns to date. However, I feel Auburn is the more complete team, especially on the defensive side as it is allowing just 307 yards per game (including just 285 and 280 yards to Kansas State and LSU, respectively), while Mississippi State is allowing 426 YPG.
The Tigers also have been on the big stage repeatedly the past few years and thrived, while every week is new territory for the up-and-coming Bulldogs. The Tigers will make their case for being No. 1.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 34, Mississippi State 27
No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs at No. 5 Baylor Bears (-8)Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABCThe last time the Horned Frogs visited Waco, they had a plus-6 turnover margin and rolled to a 49-21 win. Last year, Baylor got two interception returns for touchdowns; down 41-38 with 11 seconds left, TCU was intercepted in the Baylor end zone to seal the deal. Remarkably, TCU outgained Baylor 267-206 in passing yardage in that game, and has held the Baylor offense to 211 yards per game less than its average in the past two meetings.
This year in my college football preview, I labeled the Horned Frogs as my No. 1 most improved team in the country, and they validated that claim last week in their 37-33 upset over Oklahoma. QB Trevone Boykin has thrived in their new high-tempo offense, and he threw for 318 yards last week. The defense remains stingy as ever, allowing just 279 YPG (No. 7 in the country).
On the other side, Baylor QB Bryce Petty had arguably the worst game of his career last week, hitting just 7 of 22 passes for 111 yards, and now faces a defense that could be even better. While the Bears have covered their past 12 home games by 20 points per contest, I think TCU is capable of slowing down the Baylor offense here, and I look for the Frogs to keep it closer than the Vegas experts think.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: Baylor 34, TCU 31
No. 3 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (-2)Saturday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPNThe Aggies are a perfect 6-0 all time in this series, and in each of the past two years have pulled out three-point wins at Ole Miss. While this will be the third trip to College Station for Ole Miss, it will be their first since 1975.
[+] Enlarge
Marvin Gentry/USA TODAY SportsAfter a strong start to the season, Kenny Hill threw three interceptions in Week 6.With last week's 23-17 upset win over Alabama, the Rebels are 5-0 for the first time since 1962. However, this week could be the bigger test to see where Hugh Freeze's program stacks up nationally, as they are once again the underdog here on the road. QB Bo Wallace raised his game when it mattered most in the fourth quarter last week, with two touchdown passes -- including the game winner -- but it is the Rebels' defense that has them in contention for a playoff berth, as they are allowing just 278 YPG (No. 5 nationally) and 10 PPG (No. 2).
On the other side, the Texas A&M defense is improved from last year, but is still allowing 489 YPG (when you take out SMU and Lamar). Despite putting up big yards, QB Kenny Hill has now completed less than 60 percent of his passes in each of the past two weeks, and threw three interceptions in Week 6.
While I like Texas A&M's situation here -- playing at home for the first time since Sept. 13 and catching Ole Miss off the big upset win -- I just feel the Rebels are the far superior team, and I will always take an underdog with the much better defense.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss 34, Texas A&M 31
No. 12 Oregon Ducks (-2.5) at No. 18 UCLA BruinsSaturday, 3:30 p.m. ETOregon has won 10 of the past 12 meetings in the series. Last year, UCLA was without its top running back and had a banged-up offensive line, but surprisingly ran for 219 yards. The 42-14 final score was a tad misleading, as it was tied at 14 at halftime and Oregon didn't take the lead until 2:47 left in the third quarter.
Entering the season, this game appeared to be a preview of the Pac-12 championship game, but now neither team is in first place in its own division. Before last week, it also appeared that we would see a matchup of two undefeated teams, but both were upset on their home field. In a sense, this is like an elimination game in that the loser can kiss any solid chance at an appearance in the College Football Playoff goodbye.
Both offensive lines have struggled (UCLA is No. 123 in sacks allowed, Oregon is No. 110), which has led to both Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley being banged up. The Ducks have allowed at least 439 yards to every FBS team they've played, and the Bruins are averaging 465 YPG on offense. Look for the Bruins, who have the slightly better defense, to pull out a close one at home and remain in the playoff hunt.
ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 37, Oregon 34
No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs (-3) at No. 23 Missouri TigersSaturday, noon ETThese two met in Columbia two years ago in Missouri's inaugural SEC game. The Tigers led 17-9 in the third quarter, but Georgia outscored them 32-3 down the stretch; it was somewhat misleading, as Missouri had a 371-355 yardage edge. Last year, Georgia came in missing two running backs and three of its top four receivers, then had four turnovers in a 41-26 loss.
This marks a battle of the top two teams in the SEC East. UGA is coming off a 44-17 win over Vanderbilt in which Heisman hopeful RB Todd Gurley rushed for 163 yards and completed the longest pass for the Bulldogs this year (50 yards). On the other side, Missouri is fresh off a bye, and won its last game 21-20 at South Carolina, rallying from a 20-7 fourth-quarter deficit.
Obviously, the matchup to watch here is Gurley going up against a Missouri defense that allowed 241 rush yards to Indiana and the Hoosiers' great RB Tevin Coleman in the upset loss. Another reason to like the Bulldogs here is that they are getting much healthier at the WR spot, which could make their offense even more potent. Georgia will take the lead in the SEC East.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 34, Missouri 27
Quick hittersNo. 1 Florida State Seminoles (-23.5) at Syracuse OrangeSaturday, noon ET, ESPN
The Seminoles finally got their first cover of the 2014 season last week, dropping Wake Forest 43-3. Now they take on a reeling Syracuse team that has dropped three straight and lost last week to Louisville 28-6 at home. The bigger loss for them was QB Terrel Hunt being declared out for the next month or so (fractured fibula), and that's not good news taking on a Florida State defense that could be finally hitting its stride. The Orange allowed Notre Dame QB Everett Golson to hit 25 consecutive passes, and now they take on Jameis Winston and all of the Seminoles' speed on a fast track inside a dome. Despite some injury concerns with RB Karlos Williams and WR Rashad Greene, I look for FSU to roll here and set up a huge showdown against Notre Dame next weekend in Tallahassee.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 38, Syracuse 10
No.7 Alabama Crimson Tide (-10) at Arkansas RazorbacksSaturday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Crimson Tide have won seven in a row in this series, and have outscored the Razorbacks 104-0 the past two years. While Arkansas comes in fresh off a bye, the Crimson Tide should be plenty motivated trying to rebound from last week's blown fourth-quarter lead at Ole Miss. An advantage for the Tide is that they won't have to worry about a hurry-up spread attack this week, as the Hogs' physical brand of offense is tailor-made for a Tide defense that enters with the No. 3 rush defense in the country. Alabama is certainly not out of playoff contention yet, and I look for them to get a comfortable bounce-back win against a team it has dominated for the better part of the past decade.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 37, Arkansas 20
LSU Tigers (-1.5) at Florida GatorsSaturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
This will mark the first time since 1989 that neither team comes into this game ranked, and QB issues are the problem for both teams. Florida starting QB Jeff Driskel was supposed to be improved this year with new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper, but that has not been the case, and he was benched last week in favor of true freshman Treon Harris. After leading the comeback win over Tennessee, Harris was suspended indefinitely this week, so Driskel is back in as the starter. LSU is coming off its worst loss ever under coach Les Miles, falling 41-7 at Auburn. True freshman Brandon Harris got his first career start, but he was benched in favor of former starter Anthony Jennings, and the two will compete for the starting job this week. Despite the QB issues, I do like the home underdog Gators in this one, as they have the better defense and the Tigers are playing a game for the seventh consecutive week (and on their second straight road trip). The home team has won the past three in this series by 16 PPG.
ATS pick: Florida
Score: Florida 23, LSU 20
USC Trojans (-2.5) at No. 10 Arizona WildcatsSaturday, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
USC has dominated this series as of late, winning 10 of the past 12 meetings. The Wildcats are surprisingly the lone undefeated Pac-12 team remaining, as they are 5-0 for the first time since 1998 and are coming off an upset win at Oregon. Notably, that was the largest upset, spread-wise, of the year (Arizona was plus-24). USC is coming off the Hail Mary loss to Arizona State, and has given up 500-plus yards in two of its past three games. The Trojans have been susceptible against the run (452 rush yards allowed to Boston College) and the pass (510 pass yards allowed to Arizona State). The Wildcats' offense led by QB Anu Solomon (382 total YPG) and true freshman RB Nick Wilson (574 rush yards) should be able to take advantage, as the Wildcats are averaging 640 YPG at home this year.
ATS pick: Arizona
Score: Arizona 31, USC 28
Texas Longhorns versus No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (-14.5), DallasSaturday, noon ET, ABC
After losing to the Sooners by a combined 80 points in 2011 and 2012, the Longhorns pulled off the upset 36-20 last year in Mack Brown's final season. Last week, Texas played much better than its 28-7 loss to Baylor indicated. They had a 190-124 yardage edge at halftime, but trailed 7-0 thanks to Baylor getting a blocked field goal return for a touchdown; Texas also had a mishandled snap at the Baylor 1-yard line late in the half. While the offense has struggled, the defense seems legit, as it limited Baylor QB Bryce Petty to just 111 pass yards and a 32 percent completion rate (Petty's lowest totals of his career). However, coach Bob Stoops and the Sooners come in off an upset loss to TCU, and it should be noted that Stoops & Co. have not lost back-to-back games in the regular season since his first year in Norman in 1999.
ATS pick: Oklahoma
Score: Oklahoma 30, Texas 13
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
The obvious downside is to realize the value is that you have to play literally every play of the season, which can be tedious and burdensome on bankroll mgt. While realizing that I saw certain conferences standing out, I could increase the value of his plays while at the same time reducing the # of games I had to bet. Win/Win. I just feel dumb for not realizing this preseason.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Week 6 seemed like more of a shake-up than it really was. Eleven ranked teams lost, but only two lost to currently unranked teams, and one of those (BYU) had the excuse of losing its Heisman-candidate superstar to a severe injury.
So, again, we find ourselves cautioning against overreaction; this was less Shake-up Saturday than just all in a day's play. Some of the pretenders (Oregon, Texas A&M) finally fell out of the top 10, leaving Florida State and Arizona as the only top 10 teams that aren't really top 10 material.
We're now 30-30 against the spread in this space after six weeks, which means we've made some pretty lousy picks given that our preseason vision of the landscape still looks pretty accurate. This week, we offer an opinion on the big SEC clash, back a Big Ten dark horse, take a look at a Big 12 contender that's one of the few to undergo an adjustment from our preseason view, and finally, check in on the progress of a rising Pac-12 power.
A bye week to get healthier and move past a rare victory over Michigan was just what Minnesota needed. The Gophers must play Ohio State from the East division, and draw Nebraska and Wisconsin on the road to close the year. But despite the schedule, we wouldn't count this team out of the West race just yet. Northwestern's defense looks as good as 2008's fine unit, but the offense is broken, and the league's lowest-rated, full-time passer will have a tough time finding the end zone against a Gophers defense that leads the Big Ten in both first downs and third down conversions allowed.
ATS Pick: Minnesota
Score: Minnesota 17, Northwestern 9
This is the fifth straight year we've dismissed ULM as a legitimate Sun Belt contender, and we don't think that will ever change as long as this staff is in place. But as unexcited as we are about backing what is at root a bad team, we'd be hard-pressed not to pick up whatever hammer we were dealt this week and get after Kentucky with it. We've said this before in this space and we'll reiterate: There is no "turnaround" underway at Kentucky. The Wildcats remain a weak team with a weak staff and will never post a winning record in the SEC under the current regime, even with the SEC East at its lowest point ever. A bowl berth will still require a significant upset -- even with the likely 5-1 start. We realize that Kentucky hasn't beaten South Carolina that often, but even the most optimistic in Big Blue Nation have to be a little put off by the postgame reaction. If you want to be relevant in the SEC, you cannot celebrate home wins over reeling four-point favorites playing their worst football in a decade like it's the upset of the century. If there was ever a moment that said "not ready for prime time," the South Carolina postgame was it. Monroe is awful; we'll take the points anyway.
ATS Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Score: Kentucky 28, Louisiana-Monroe 14
It's hard to be thrilled with this price when the Jackets have won 10 straight meetings in the series -- by an average of three touchdowns -- and come into this year's matchup unbeaten. Still, this game sets up nicely for Duke, as the Devils are coming off an open date while Tech just played its most highly-anticipated home game of the year. The Jackets won't be able to summon the same energy level as last week, and Duke is a tougher out in a game with limited possessions than an inefficient, error-prone Miami squad.
ATS Pick: Duke
Score: Duke 28 Georgia Tech 27
The polls say these are two of the best teams in the nation, and we agree. Auburn is playing much tougher defense this year, but Mississippi State's offense is really rolling, so it's hard to see a defensive struggle like the past two years. The emergence of wideout D'haquille "Duke" Williams as downfield complement to Sammie Coates was the missing piece to the Auburn offense, and if the Bulldogs have a weakness, it's a tendency to let too many opposing receivers run free in the secondary for big gains. Coaches, players and fans all agreed that once Auburn survived the trip to Kansas State it would be better off for having done it, and this looks like the game where that experience pays off.
ATS Pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 38, Mississippi State 31
Florida knows it's a bad team, of course, but last week unfolded so perfectly that the Gators could have practiced some badly needed self-deception. The team had just rallied through a rough bye week filled with negativity and give-up from the fan base and local media, and capitalized on one of the worst performances in Tennessee football history to steal a road game courtesy of some unlikely heroics from a freshman quarterback. Florida had a win, it had momentum, it had something different to point to offensively ... and then the freshman savior was suspended for an off-field incident. And the defensive players lost hope again. And fights broke out, and the list goes on. For a moment it looked like even a team this bad would have a shot against a rebuilding LSU. But now we doubt it, and the only difference that 10th straight win over Tennessee will make is providing an interim head coach the opportunity to lose a bowl game.
ATS Pick: LSU
Score: LSU 24, Florida 6
We've been touting the rise of UAB as a burgeoning power in Conference-USA, and after a turnover-fueled home loss to FIU, the Blazers got back on track with an upset road win at Western Kentucky. This is an explosive offense, and while North Texas is a capable defensive team, the Mean Green offense remains anemic, and won't be able to match UAB score for score.
ATS Pick: UAB
Score: UAB 35, North Texas 21
Five games into the Chris Petersen era and the Huskies look nothing like a Chris Petersen team. They miss assignments, commit turnovers, have lapses in effort, aren't the more physical team on every play, and play poor situational football at times. This team doesn't practice like a Chris Petersen team, doesn't watch film like a Chris Petersen team and doesn't take coaching like a Chris Petersen team. This should be a source of terror for the entire Pac-12, because Washington is -- by Petersen's standards -- not a good football team, yet the Huskies are already pretty much on par with anybody in the league. We continue to maintain that Washington will be the dominant team in the Pac-12 in the coming years, probably starting as soon as next season, and that Petersen will bag the league's first national title since Pete Carroll at USC. That the Huskies can be as good as they are despite so much correctable failure is really striking. We're very impressed with Cal's improvement, but only one of these teams plays defense, and that one is getting points.
ATS Pick: Washington
Score: Washington 31, California 28
ATS Pick: Eastern Michigan
Score: Buffalo 24, Eastern Michigan 17
Our preseason view of the Big 12 was that Oklahoma, Baylor and Kansas State were all very powerful teams that were clearly the top tier of the league, with K-State the least likely to win the title only because the Cats got the short end of the schedule this year. TCU and Oklahoma State occupied the second tier, with the other five teams irrelevant to the league title race and just scrapping for a bowl berth. TCU now looks like it belongs with the top three, leaving the Pokes in a tier all alone. The Big 12 is the second-best league in football this year, at least at the top, and the idea that TCU -- along with the Sooners, Bears and Wildcats -- can beat anybody in the nation represents one of the more significant changes to the picture we painted in the summer. This is a fair matchup between excellent teams, and we'll urge you to remember that the loser of this game is still a top-10 caliber team that remains in the College Football Playoff hunt.
ATS Pick: TCU
Score: Baylor 31, TCU 27
ATS Pick: Air Force
Score: Utah State 21, Air Force 17
So, again, we find ourselves cautioning against overreaction; this was less Shake-up Saturday than just all in a day's play. Some of the pretenders (Oregon, Texas A&M) finally fell out of the top 10, leaving Florida State and Arizona as the only top 10 teams that aren't really top 10 material.
We're now 30-30 against the spread in this space after six weeks, which means we've made some pretty lousy picks given that our preseason vision of the landscape still looks pretty accurate. This week, we offer an opinion on the big SEC clash, back a Big Ten dark horse, take a look at a Big 12 contender that's one of the few to undergo an adjustment from our preseason view, and finally, check in on the progress of a rising Pac-12 power.
Minnesota Golden Gophers -3.5 versus Northwestern Wildcats
A bye week to get healthier and move past a rare victory over Michigan was just what Minnesota needed. The Gophers must play Ohio State from the East division, and draw Nebraska and Wisconsin on the road to close the year. But despite the schedule, we wouldn't count this team out of the West race just yet. Northwestern's defense looks as good as 2008's fine unit, but the offense is broken, and the league's lowest-rated, full-time passer will have a tough time finding the end zone against a Gophers defense that leads the Big Ten in both first downs and third down conversions allowed.
ATS Pick: Minnesota
Score: Minnesota 17, Northwestern 9
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks +21.5 at Kentucky Wildcats
This is the fifth straight year we've dismissed ULM as a legitimate Sun Belt contender, and we don't think that will ever change as long as this staff is in place. But as unexcited as we are about backing what is at root a bad team, we'd be hard-pressed not to pick up whatever hammer we were dealt this week and get after Kentucky with it. We've said this before in this space and we'll reiterate: There is no "turnaround" underway at Kentucky. The Wildcats remain a weak team with a weak staff and will never post a winning record in the SEC under the current regime, even with the SEC East at its lowest point ever. A bowl berth will still require a significant upset -- even with the likely 5-1 start. We realize that Kentucky hasn't beaten South Carolina that often, but even the most optimistic in Big Blue Nation have to be a little put off by the postgame reaction. If you want to be relevant in the SEC, you cannot celebrate home wins over reeling four-point favorites playing their worst football in a decade like it's the upset of the century. If there was ever a moment that said "not ready for prime time," the South Carolina postgame was it. Monroe is awful; we'll take the points anyway.
ATS Pick: Louisiana-Monroe
Score: Kentucky 28, Louisiana-Monroe 14
Duke Blue Devils +3 at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
It's hard to be thrilled with this price when the Jackets have won 10 straight meetings in the series -- by an average of three touchdowns -- and come into this year's matchup unbeaten. Still, this game sets up nicely for Duke, as the Devils are coming off an open date while Tech just played its most highly-anticipated home game of the year. The Jackets won't be able to summon the same energy level as last week, and Duke is a tougher out in a game with limited possessions than an inefficient, error-prone Miami squad.
ATS Pick: Duke
Score: Duke 28 Georgia Tech 27
Auburn Tigers -2.5 at Mississippi State Bulldogs
The polls say these are two of the best teams in the nation, and we agree. Auburn is playing much tougher defense this year, but Mississippi State's offense is really rolling, so it's hard to see a defensive struggle like the past two years. The emergence of wideout D'haquille "Duke" Williams as downfield complement to Sammie Coates was the missing piece to the Auburn offense, and if the Bulldogs have a weakness, it's a tendency to let too many opposing receivers run free in the secondary for big gains. Coaches, players and fans all agreed that once Auburn survived the trip to Kansas State it would be better off for having done it, and this looks like the game where that experience pays off.
ATS Pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 38, Mississippi State 31
LSU Tigers -1 at Florida Gators
Florida knows it's a bad team, of course, but last week unfolded so perfectly that the Gators could have practiced some badly needed self-deception. The team had just rallied through a rough bye week filled with negativity and give-up from the fan base and local media, and capitalized on one of the worst performances in Tennessee football history to steal a road game courtesy of some unlikely heroics from a freshman quarterback. Florida had a win, it had momentum, it had something different to point to offensively ... and then the freshman savior was suspended for an off-field incident. And the defensive players lost hope again. And fights broke out, and the list goes on. For a moment it looked like even a team this bad would have a shot against a rebuilding LSU. But now we doubt it, and the only difference that 10th straight win over Tennessee will make is providing an interim head coach the opportunity to lose a bowl game.
ATS Pick: LSU
Score: LSU 24, Florida 6
UAB Blazers -6 versus North Texas Mean Green
We've been touting the rise of UAB as a burgeoning power in Conference-USA, and after a turnover-fueled home loss to FIU, the Blazers got back on track with an upset road win at Western Kentucky. This is an explosive offense, and while North Texas is a capable defensive team, the Mean Green offense remains anemic, and won't be able to match UAB score for score.
ATS Pick: UAB
Score: UAB 35, North Texas 21
Washington Huskies +3.5 at California Golden Bears
Five games into the Chris Petersen era and the Huskies look nothing like a Chris Petersen team. They miss assignments, commit turnovers, have lapses in effort, aren't the more physical team on every play, and play poor situational football at times. This team doesn't practice like a Chris Petersen team, doesn't watch film like a Chris Petersen team and doesn't take coaching like a Chris Petersen team. This should be a source of terror for the entire Pac-12, because Washington is -- by Petersen's standards -- not a good football team, yet the Huskies are already pretty much on par with anybody in the league. We continue to maintain that Washington will be the dominant team in the Pac-12 in the coming years, probably starting as soon as next season, and that Petersen will bag the league's first national title since Pete Carroll at USC. That the Huskies can be as good as they are despite so much correctable failure is really striking. We're very impressed with Cal's improvement, but only one of these teams plays defense, and that one is getting points.
ATS Pick: Washington
Score: Washington 31, California 28
Eastern Michigan Eagles +13 versus Buffalo BullsThe MAC currently has a lot of good coaches leading bad teams. EMU's Chris Creighton is in that group, and while the current talent level won't produce many wins, this team has much better unity than past editions, and will be a tougher out to lay double digits against. Last year's Buffalo team was the outlier, not the start of sustained success. We are not optimistic about this program moving forward, and the Bulls are in a tough spot this week after losing a heartbreaker to Bowling Green in the final minutes.ATS Pick: Eastern Michigan
Score: Buffalo 24, Eastern Michigan 17
TCU Horned Frogs +8.5 versus Baylor BearsWe have long championed the eventual rise of Gary Patterson's Frogs in the Big 12, and when the defensive guru decided to completely revamp his offensive philosophy, we figured this was the move that would put the Frogs over the top. But not in Year 1; we assumed it would take a year or two for a complete offensive overhaul under two brand-new co-coordinators to take shape. And it might. Six weeks in, TCU has seen two cupcakes, two open dates, a good Minnesota team on a bad day and an Oklahoma defense that might have some holes. So it's hard to say for sure that this offense has arrived. But right now it looks legit, and triggerman Trevone Boykin seems like a different player. If so, this is a national championship-caliber team, not in two years as we've suggested, but right now.Our preseason view of the Big 12 was that Oklahoma, Baylor and Kansas State were all very powerful teams that were clearly the top tier of the league, with K-State the least likely to win the title only because the Cats got the short end of the schedule this year. TCU and Oklahoma State occupied the second tier, with the other five teams irrelevant to the league title race and just scrapping for a bowl berth. TCU now looks like it belongs with the top three, leaving the Pokes in a tier all alone. The Big 12 is the second-best league in football this year, at least at the top, and the idea that TCU -- along with the Sooners, Bears and Wildcats -- can beat anybody in the nation represents one of the more significant changes to the picture we painted in the summer. This is a fair matchup between excellent teams, and we'll urge you to remember that the loser of this game is still a top-10 caliber team that remains in the College Football Playoff hunt.
ATS Pick: TCU
Score: Baylor 31, TCU 27
Air Force Falcons +7 at Utah State AggiesLogan, Utah, is one of the toughest places to play in a league full of difficult road trips, but Utah State is one of the league's least experienced teams and has now lost quarterback Chuckie Keeton for the season. The Flyboys are 4-1 after beating Boise State and Navy, poised to reverse three-year skids in both offensive and defensive production.ATS Pick: Air Force
Score: Utah State 21, Air Force 17
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Obviously in an ideal world you want a WR who'd dive for a ball in a situation like that. Of course. But I don't think it's a situation that a WR ever sees that much, especially with that much distance between him and the ball. He didn't see Vontae Davis coming in from his left to jump on the ball, which ended up making him look a little silly.
I think it's somewhat equatable to a kicker being a terrible tackler. Do you want a guy who has range out to 50, or a more well-rounded "football player?"
It doesn't make logical sense that he'd just give up on a ball like that, it's not like they were down 21. He just didn't do a good job of it.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Mine was on special teams. A road game at night. After the kickoff me and this other dude eyed each other up like two bighorn sheep and decided to go helmet-to-helmet on each other. He won. Did you get the lightning bolts that shoot down both your arms and through your fingertips? I walked around in an undiagnosed haze after that. It also didn't help going head-to-head (literally) against the new kid with something to prove in tackling drills every day.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
so my kids shouldnt play football?
chalking that one up to a bad beat.
These numbers are from PFF:
Cushing each week
Week 1: 42/66 snaps (64%) - 6 tackles
Week 2: 36/63 snaps (57%) - 6 tackles
Week 3: 58/72 snaps (81%) - 13 tackles
Week 4: 46/72 snaps (64%) - 9 tackles
Week 5: 53/78 snaps (68%) - 8 tackles
Week 6: 84/87 snaps (97%) - 3 tackles
84 snaps, 60 tackle opps, and he was invisible for most of the game.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
I locked in a profit after "just chip away".
I didn't think he had "we were in this position last year" in him.
modogg
Footballguy
I agree here, but that is about it. Really isn't that big of a deal. they will bust his balls a bit for it, and will either agree that yeah, i should have dove right in there, or he will go the Ricky Waters route. My guess is number 1. We have seen it slowed down every time. I'm not surprised that a WR is not ready to jump on a loose ball like a defender who probably practices "BALL" drills every day at practice.
I don't think his team will hold it against him at all though. Let him go out there next week and get over 100 yards receiving and he will be fine.
the question you should ask, is which is worse: Hopkins' play you have in the clips above or Ricky Watters alligator arms? (damn, just looked for a good 10 minutes on youtube and couldn't find the clip)?
my answer, is without a doubt it was Ricky Watters refusing to go for that catch and then backing that up with the "for who, for what" comments. Deandre's is not a big deal, he will get goofed on a little bit, but nothing he can't easily overcome. I think this is an easy answer
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Denver -4
Den/NYJ o42
Pit +7
3 game teaser
Den/NYJ o42
Pit +7
3 game teaser
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
That UNLV team stinks but it seems like most games play to the over. More or less the same story for Fresno. I can't see how they get to 10 TD but the trend says different. 65 just feels like way too many points.
I can't wrap my head around Stanford Wazzu I can see Wazzu beating them. I can see Stanford shutting out Wazzu. No feel at all.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Wow, Tillman's numbers with Hundley catching are ace-level.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Starting a fantasy team with nugs next year called "Mr. and Ms. Hopkins."
Yeah, that's an important note. Tillman also seems to slow SB down with only one this year and 2-13 past two years. Rain and muddy infield should also slow down KC on the bases. 2-5 Aoki, Cain, Hosmer and Butler are 5-31 vs Tillman. Having a tough time seeing KC score a lot tonight.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
got_nugs
Footballguy
Billy Bats
Footballguy
No action on the O's/Royals game or series?
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Team to score 1st.
Bal
+105
Bal
+105
Frostillicus
Footballguy
I'm on BAL/KC u 7
Perez u 1.5 h+r+bi
De Aza no hit +160
Perez u 1.5 h+r+bi
De Aza no hit +160
Frostillicus
Footballguy
and Halliday u 374.5
Wright o 59.5
Wright o 59.5
Billy Bats
Footballguy
O's -130 series.
O's in 5 +550 (congrats royals and their fan)
Markakis O 1.5 H/R/Rbi tonight
Gllll
O's in 5 +550 (congrats royals and their fan)
Markakis O 1.5 H/R/Rbi tonight
Gllll
Last edited by a moderator:
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I think every guy should play football just for the mental toughness you gain. My coaches were all backwards, backwoods, small-town vietnam veterans. Ultra-serious dudes, and each and every one of them had a visible screw loose. We never won any games but they kicked the shlt out of us. Mental toughness was a religion to those guys. It paid off in the long-run.
The Ref
Footballguy
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
No opinion. Wright isn't a feature back and WS should play with a deficit the entire game.
The Ref
Footballguy
Honest question.... will this matter? WS will huck if they are up by 21 with 10 minutes left.
