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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)

The Ref said:
TheGooRoo said:
The Ref said:
TheGooRoo said:
Frostillicus said:
and Halliday u 374.5

Wright o 59.5
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Goooooooooooo middle!!!!

http://awesomescreenshot.com/03b3n1711c
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Interesting. Reading between the lines here but are we leaning Wazzu +/over?
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No opinion. Wright isn't a feature back and WS should play with a deficit the entire game.
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Honest question.... will this matter? WS will huck if they are up by 21 with 10 minutes left.
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With Leach? Probably doesn't matter. I'd like to say i don't think they'd throw all 4 downs from their 10 yard line with 2 minutes left (eta- with a 10 point lead), but he probably would.

 
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Partly because I'm a dumb ###, and mostly because I'm home on a Friday night with a 32 oz crowler of IPA from the brewery down the street I put some bets down.

Wazzu +16.5
Wazzu Over 53
Wazzu TT Over 18
UNLV TT Under 28
First team to score UNLV +120
First Score UNLV Safety/FG +350

All bet to win .5 Unit.

 
Has anyone ever eaten at a Jimmy Johns?

Only reason why i ask is they are all over college football game commercials this year and I've never even seen one.

 
The Ref said:
Has anyone ever eaten at a Jimmy Johns?

Only reason why i ask is they are all over college football game commercials this year and I've never even seen one.
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I ordered from there all the time during my quarter closes when there was one near my work. The whole "freaky fast delivery" thing is not shtick, it's insane. I'd order a sandwich, chips and a drink, and within a literal 5 minutes a guy or girl from JJ's was right outside my work entrance with my food. Not the best sandwich I've ever had, but definitely a decent fix for a sandwich and can be ordered really any way you want.

Definitely recommend.

 
The Ref said:
Has anyone ever eaten at a Jimmy Johns?

Only reason why i ask is they are all over college football game commercials this year and I've never even seen one.
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Big around colleges. They are a step above Subway but nothing special imo.
 
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#5 or #9 with extra hot peppers

It's an adequate sandwich...I'm sure someone from a town with a real deli will tell you you might as well just eat dog food, but overall a tasty sandwich

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Big around colleges. They are a step above Subway but nothing special imo.
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TheGooRoo said:
About 3 x's a week.
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mquinnjr said:
I ordered from there all the time during my quarter closes when there was one near my work. The whole "freaky fast delivery" thing is not shtick, it's insane. I'd order a sandwich, chips and a drink, and within a literal 5 minutes a guy or girl from JJ's was right outside my work entrance with my food. Not the best sandwich I've ever had, but definitely a decent fix for a sandwich and can be ordered really any way you want.

Definitely recommend.
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Turns out they have three of them in Palm beach county.... closest one is about 15 min away. Maybe I'll give it a shot.

 
Raider Nation said:
Pirelli is totally hammering said cougar, right? They live together and they are both drunk a lot.
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Was Pirelli banging the lot little Asian thang he hung out with on the show? Feel like that might've been more of a sugar daddy type thing, couldn't tell.

That chick gave me a lap dance at the Spearmint Rhino last time I was in Vegas last winter. My buddies and I were there for awhile and were heading out, and her and another hussie grabbed me and my friend for a lap dance. "Want a lap dance from a pr0n star?" "What's your name?" "CJ Miles" "Never heard of you." "What?!?!" Still got lap dances, she's a little firecracker. Had to do a double take when I saw her on the show. Her being a stripper/pr0n star (no good scenes...I checked) makes me think Pirelli might be in a sugar daddy situation, which would absolutely compute from watching the show.

 
Anyone else catch the opening for the Fresno UNLV game. It featured a heartwarming speech from the Fresno locker room. The player talked about how they didn't trust each other in the first 3 games and that's the reason why they lost. Then they learned to trust each other and that's why they are on a three game win streak......

First three games USC, Utah, Nebraska 166-59 0-3

Second three games South Utah, New Mex, SD St 115-53 3-0

Don't think trust in your teammates was the reason.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Could be more than a few plays this week. Here are all the ones to keep on eye on

Thursday

BYU +3.5 (215 ypg) current o/u is 47.5

Saturday

Texas +14.5 (134 ypg) current o/u is 46.5

Northwestern +4 (130 ypg) current o/u is 42

Houston +9 (155 ypg) current o/u is 49

Air Force +7 (298 ypg) current o/u is 47.5

Wyoming +4 (137 ypg) current o/u is 47
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if grabbing these tonight

Texas is +17 @47 , NW +4 @44, Wyoming @43

Houston no play at 48

Air Force no play at 50.5

 
swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin said:
Could be more than a few plays this week. Here are all the ones to keep on eye on

Thursday

BYU +3.5 (215 ypg) current o/u is 47.5

Saturday

Texas +14.5 (134 ypg) current o/u is 46.5

Northwestern +4 (130 ypg) current o/u is 42

Houston +9 (155 ypg) current o/u is 49

Air Force +7 (298 ypg) current o/u is 47.5

Wyoming +4 (137 ypg) current o/u is 47
Click to expand...
if grabbing these tonight

Texas is +17 @47 , NW +4 @44, Wyoming @43

Houston no play at 48

Air Force no play at 50.5
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I'm leary of NW. That team simply can't pass. Thats why their run stats look that good. jmo from watching a few of their games. Decent defense, have to run most of the time, looks good for the under. Minnesota seems legit, with upset of michigan. ML and under for me.

 
The Ref said:
And thats why the public loves Mike Leach.
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It's actually a treat watching his team. I like to tally up the coaching errors.

The Ref said:
Partly because I'm a dumb ###, and mostly because I'm home on a Friday night with a 32 oz crowler of IPA from the brewery down the street I put some bets down.

Wazzu +16.5

Wazzu Over 53

Wazzu TT Over 18
Click to expand...
So the worst-case scenario here would be something like Mike Leach being stupid, and Stanford scoring with a minute left to win 34-17?

 
Raider Nation said:
The Ref said:
And thats why the public loves Mike Leach.
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It's actually a treat watching his team. I like to tally up the coaching errors.

The Ref said:
Partly because I'm a dumb ###, and mostly because I'm home on a Friday night with a 32 oz crowler of IPA from the brewery down the street I put some bets down.

Wazzu +16.5

Wazzu Over 53

Wazzu TT Over 18
Click to expand...
So the worst-case scenario here would be something like Mike Leach being stupid, and Stanford scoring with a minute left to win 34-17?
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yeah more or less.... Everyone in the world bet Stanford, including some of the coaches at Wazzu.

 
optionmaven said:
swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin said:
Could be more than a few plays this week. Here are all the ones to keep on eye on

Thursday

BYU +3.5 (215 ypg) current o/u is 47.5

Saturday

Texas +14.5 (134 ypg) current o/u is 46.5

Northwestern +4 (130 ypg) current o/u is 42

Houston +9 (155 ypg) current o/u is 49

Air Force +7 (298 ypg) current o/u is 47.5

Wyoming +4 (137 ypg) current o/u is 47
Click to expand...
if grabbing these tonight

Texas is +17 @47 , NW +4 @44, Wyoming @43

Houston no play at 48

Air Force no play at 50.5
Click to expand...
I'm leary of NW. That team simply can't pass. Thats why their run stats look that good. jmo from watching a few of their games. Decent defense, have to run most of the time, looks good for the under. Minnesota seems legit, with upset of michigan. ML and under for me.
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i have previously bet Minny for pretty large for me. Just posting.. Does seem like a letdown, for them....but cant pick and choose

 
I once lost a college football game which went to overtime, and I was getting 11 points. I wish I could remember the exact game. It was when OT in college was fairly new... late 90s. Almost positive it was a PAC-10 game. Pretty sure Arizona was one of the teams. Anyway, you know the scenario. The team I bet against scored a TD in OT, and then on defense, they pick off a pass and return it all the way to win by 13. The jerk couldn't have just gone to the ground when he caught it, right? :rolleyes:

That's about the worst beat there is.

 
Las Vegas Sharps Report, Week 6

Quarterback injuries have muddied the waters a bit in three different games this weekend. As we go to press on Friday, official numbers still aren’t up and widely available in games involving the Titans, Vikings, and Cardinals because it’s not yet known who will be playing quarterback.

DENVER AT NY JETS:
Denver was a very popular sharp bet at the opener of -7, as the Wise Guys were doing a combination of “position-taking” against expected public action, and nudging the game into the basic strategy window for two-team teasers. We’re now seeing Denver -9 or -9.5 in most places. Sources tell us that sharps would definitely come in on the Jets at +10 (particularly those who are heavy at -7!). Though, we could see some sharps buy in on the Jets on game day at +9 just in hopes of being able to bet Denver -2.5 in six-point teasers. The Over/Under is up a point from 46.5 to 47.5. Note that we’ll only mention totals today in games that have moved at least a point off the opener.

PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND:
An opener of pick-em has been bet up to Cleveland -1.5. The Browns were a popular sharp bet last week against Tennessee, and rallied late to cover against the first numbers the Wise Guys had been attacking. It’s possible the line moves some more before kickoff. But, sharps want the game in the 1.5 to 2.5 range so Pittsburgh (+) can be used in teasers that cross both the 3 and the 7 in one move. So, were the public to bet the game up to three, sharps would come in HARD on Pittsburgh to bring it back to +2.5.

JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE:
No line yet. This is not expected to be a heavily bet game from the public because it’s two bad teams playing in front of a minuscule TV audience. Sharps will only bet heavily if they think the eventual opener is way off base.

CHICAGO AT ATLANTA:
This has been a solid three all week for the home favorite. Sharps would fade any move off the key number created by public action. The power of the three is so strong that percentages favor whichever team has it in their hip pocket. At the solid three, we’re hearing that sentiment is split. Sharps don’t trust the Atlanta defense as a favorite, or mistake-prone Jay Cutler in what is a tough team fatigue spot (fourth road game in five weeks).

GREEN BAY AT MIAMI:
Looks like we have a tug-of-war here shaping up between Green Bay -3 (squares and some sharps) and Miami +3.5 (the rest of the sharps). Once again, the power of the key number is in play. The pubic loves betting Aaron Rodgers at cheap prices. And, the Packers have started covering spreads again. But, old school sharps expect a flat spot here given that Green Bay is coming off three divisional games and is now facing a non-conference opponent. This could be a very heavily bet tug-of-war before kickoff. Nothing to mention on total the past few games because no sharp action has been indicated. As we’ve discussed in the past, oddsmakers are now doing a better job of matching sharp algorithms for the openers. It’s weather that typically drives major moves.

DETROIT AT MINNESOTA:
No line up here yet. It’s expected that Detroit will be a short road favorite against whoever gets the call. There’s not much value difference in sharp Power Ratings between the fading Christian Ponder and the promising but green Teddy Bridgewater. We’re hearing that sharps will be looking to invest in Bridgewater through the second half of the season if he can stay healthy.

CAROLINA AT CINCINNATI:
It looks like A.J. Green will miss the game for Cincinnati. His absence has created a tug-of-war between Cincinnati -6.5 and Carolina +7. Sharps who think Carolina’s falling apart don’t minding laying the -6.5 even if Green is absent (particularly in the bounce back spot after the loss at New England). Sharps who believe Green has clear value think that +7 is too much in his absence. Seven is also a key number, influencing the percentages for sharps on either side of the battle. Tough to know how the public will bet this one because squares haven’t yet shown a liking for taking the Bengals at prices this high vs. decent opposition. And, many squares took a bath last week when they bet the Bengals vs. the Pats.

NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO:
This game hasn’t budged off the opener. Like the matchup between Chicago and Atlanta, sharps will fade any move off the three. We’re hearing though that this one is being more heavily bet. The contingents that favor underdogs and try not to overreact to one game think Buffalo +3 is a smart bet at home. Those who focus more on skill sets and current form really like what they saw from the Patriots last week once they snapped out of their funk. So, this game is getting sharp action from both sides. If the public comes in on New England Sunday morning, sharps would happily take +3.5 or better. It would be hard to imagine a move below the three given general square love for Tom Brady, and the fact that +2.5 would open up Buffalo as a nominee for teasers.

BALTIMORE AT TAMPA BAY:
A tug-of-war here shaping up between Baltimore -3 and Tampa Bay +3.5. Once again it’s the value bettors on underdogs thinking the Bucs make a lot of sense as an improving home underdog. Early square action and some “bounce back” sentiment for the Ravens is what originally drove the line off the key number of three. We have an Over/Under move of a point on the Over, from an opener of 42.5 up to 43.5. That seems HUGE in a week where totals mostly haven’t been bet yet. Sources tell us that Over sentiment is driven by the Kubiak factor in Baltimore.

SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND:
Mostly a solid San Diego -7 across the board. Though, some stores are testing Chargers -7.5. Sources tell us that sharps may step out on San Diego if the public doesn’t just to create teaser opportunities on the Chargers. Being positioned on Chargers -7 at a fair price and Chargers -1.5 in teasers is being seen as a promising way to attack the game. Only the old school sharps are thinking about Oakland…assuming peak intensity after a bye week for a hated divisional rival.

DALLAS AT SEATTLE:
An opener of Seattle -8 has been bet up to -8.5 in some places, with square shops or locales guarding against teasers testing Seattle -9. Sharps would love to see -8 or -8.5 on game day so the Seahawks can be used at -2 or -2.5 in teasers. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to risk that, or risk being one-sided on Dallas +9. There could be a lot of action on this one in the hours leading up to kickoff because it’s the defending Super Bowl champions facing “America’s Team” in a high profile TV game in the late window. Sportsbooks wouldn’t be surprised if this is the most heavily bet afternoon game of the season thus far.

WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA:
No line yet because of the Arizona quarterback situation. The Cardinals are seen as the better team if one of their first two quarterbacks can play. They would be favored by around 5-7 if that’s the case. With inexperienced Logan Thomas on the field, it’s probably a field goal game in the markets.

NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA:
Huge Sunday Night game in market terms because both of these cities love to bet! That money finds its way into the global marketplace even if locals aren’t exactly within driving distance of a casino. We’re looking at a probable tug-of-war between Philadelphia -2.5 and the NY Giants +3. Sharps hit the Giants early at +3, and would love having the G-Men in two-team teasers at +8.5 There are a ton of teaser opportunities this weekend, which has quite a few casinos concerned about exposure. Generally speaking, sharps are much more fond of the Giants at +3 or +8.5 in a teaser than they are of Philadelphia -2.5. The Ove/Under is down a point from 51 to 50.

SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS:
Not much action yet. Though, it’s telling that an opener of San Francisco -3.5 wasn’t bet toward the underdog. Even with “the power of three” in the mix, sharps wanted no part of the Rams. That tells you they Wise Guys made the game higher than three themselves. The Over/Under opened at 42.5 and has been bet up to 43.5 We’re hearing that’s based on the surprisingly good showing so far of Austin Davis at QB for the Rams. So, sharps who has reason to consider the Rams chose Over 42.5 and Over 43 as the way to express that rather than asking Davis to fully avoid miscues.
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Raider Nation said:
I once lost a college football game which went to overtime, and I was getting 11 points. I wish I could remember the exact game. It was when OT in college was fairly new... late 90s. Almost positive it was a PAC-10 game. Pretty sure Arizona was one of the teams. Anyway, you know the scenario. The team I bet against scored a TD in OT, and then on defense, they pick off a pass and return it all the way to win by 13. The jerk couldn't have just gone to the ground when he caught it, right? :rolleyes:

That's about the worst beat there is.
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Great, now I've gotta watch this ####.

 
optionmaven said:
swirvenirvin said:
swirvenirvin said:
Could be more than a few plays this week. Here are all the ones to keep on eye on

Thursday

BYU +3.5 (215 ypg) current o/u is 47.5

Saturday

Texas +14.5 (134 ypg) current o/u is 46.5

Northwestern +4 (130 ypg) current o/u is 42

Houston +9 (155 ypg) current o/u is 49

Air Force +7 (298 ypg) current o/u is 47.5

Wyoming +4 (137 ypg) current o/u is 47
Click to expand...
if grabbing these tonight

Texas is +17 @47 , NW +4 @44, Wyoming @43

Houston no play at 48

Air Force no play at 50.5
Click to expand...
I'm leary of NW. That team simply can't pass. Thats why their run stats look that good. jmo from watching a few of their games. Decent defense, have to run most of the time, looks good for the under. Minnesota seems legit, with upset of michigan. ML and under for me.
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Northwestern throws for 225 a game, Minnesota throws for 113 a game.

Either way, this game looks like a toss-up to me. Northwestern has been playing very well last few weeks.

 
Digging through stuff this week Northwestern has been a decent B10 road dog. I thought about playing them but won't be around to watch the game.

 
6-6 on soccer plays so far

Just throwing out some small ones for EURO qualifications

Romania -1/2

Serbia -1/2

Scotland -1

Germany -1

Denmark -1/2

Greece +135

N.Ire o2.5

 
I've been looking at stuff like how Louisville has never played a game at Clemson before. And I want to know: When was the last time Ole Miss went to College Station to play a game? I don't know, but it was along time ago, and I can tell you it was before 1980, because no record of "Ole Miss @ Texas A&M" exists in the database. With all these teams switching conferences you are getting some new matchups and teams are playing in venues they've never played in before.

This season, under that situation - conference matchups where the visiting team is playing there for the first time (since before 1980) - the visiting team is 13-7 SU (.650) and 16-4 ATS (.800) against an average line of 2.7. A couple examples I recognized right off the bat were Old Dominion @ Rice and Texas A&M @ S. Carolina. Here is the full list of those games this season, with 12 different matchups on deck for today, including Ole Miss @ Texas A&M: link

Ole Miss v Texas A&M

Since 2012 in SEC Conference play, the visiting team is 13-7 SU and 15-5 ATS when they are playing at the opponent's house for the first time (since before 1980). When the road team was lined anywhere from the favorite to an underdog of +10 (line≤10).. in other words, as long as they weren't getting more than 10 points in those games.. they went 12-1 SU and ATS against an average line of -2.7. link

That's why I'm playing Ole Miss SU and ATS later.

 
For the record I bet Nebraska last week based on the theory of good rushing attacks being underlined. I wasn't just trying to blindly follow, but understand why the plays made sense imo. :shrug:

 
Money trends for today:

#8 Mich St @ Purdue, 76% on Mich St, line opened -23 MSU, now showing -20.5.
NC St v BC, 73% on NC St, line opened -5 NC St, now -3.
LSU @ Florida, 73% on LSU, line opened LSU -1.5, now Florida -2. Vegas is showing Florida -1.
Iowa St v Toledo, 74% on Iowa State, line opened -5 Iowa St, now -3.
#12 Ore @ #18 UCLA, 73% on Oregon, opened at -3.5 Oregon, now -2.5. My local is down to -2.

Heading out to the Rose Bowl for some early morning tailgating. Good luck all.

 
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