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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

tjnc09 said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
"Good said:
Flyers are +160 on the road to Boston, and getting 29% of spread bets tonight. Obviously don't fit the last two criteria re: rest and off a loss.
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I don't have any evidence to back this up other than my own memory, but I think dogs tend to hit at a better rate early in the season. a veteran team like the Bruins probably didn't play their core guys much in the preseason so I think it's normal to start out rusty.
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NHL dogs so far this year are 14-19 -1.82u. That's using Pinnacle closing lines for anything over +100
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yeah, doesn't seem like it's gone very well so far.

teams I expected to be bad are playing bad.

I took a shot on the Avs in this game though. On the Ducks in the next one.

 
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Harbaugh and the 49ers are 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in night games (avg line -4.0). The average margin of victory in the ten wins was 17.1 ±8.6 points per game. In week two last season, the Seahawks beat the 49ers 29-3 on Sunday Night Football. The next week the Colts went into SF and beat the 49ers 27-7 at their house. In week three, the 49ers went to St. Louis (at night) and beat the Rams 35-11 on #TNF as a 3-point favorite. They would finish the season winning 12 of their next 15 games after that. I see a little parallel of last season with the 49ers "getting right at night" in St. Louis, so I took the 49ers.

 
The Rams have sent five or more pass-rushers 48.6% of the time (1st NFL). They have one sack to show for it. Since 1970, the 2014 Rams are one of four teams to record fewer than two sacks during their first four games. They also allow 5.97 yards per play.

SF o24 -110

 
comfortably numb said:
Aaron,

Willis u/o 7.5

?

:popcorn:
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Rams crew is not tackle-friendly, but 2 weeks ago when Dallas played there, they had 3 LBs go over that number. Willis has played all his games so far in front of stingy stat crews so it shouldn't be a big change in that respect. The biggest concern is that the 49ers will most likely control the game with their running attack and that will lead to limited tackle opps for Willis.

For me, it's an over play but not a particularly strong one.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
comfortably numb said:
Aaron,

Willis u/o 7.5

?

:popcorn:
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Rams crew is not tackle-friendly, but 2 weeks ago when Dallas played there, they had 3 LBs go over that number. Willis has played all his games so far in front of stingy stat crews so it shouldn't be a big change in that respect. The biggest concern is that the 49ers will most likely control the game with their running attack and that will lead to limited tackle opps for Willis.

For me, it's an over play but not a particularly strong one.
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Thanks.

I was worried about his opportunities

I will pass based on the thoughts on state crew

 
I played these tonight at 5d:

1u McLeod U5.5 (-115)

.5u on the rest:
Willis O7.5 (-130)
Bethea U6.5 (-145)
Reid U4.5 (-145)
Laurinitis U8.5 (-125)
Ogletree U8.5 (-105)

I think Bethea was lined at 6, and both Rams LBs were lined at 8 at Bovada. I'm just expecting a tight defensive matchup without many tackle opps on either side.

According to PFF, McLeod only lines up in the box about 9% of the time. He also isn't the most reliable tackler. 6 feels really optimistic for him in this game to me.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
I played these tonight at 5d:

1u McLeod U5.5 (-115)

.5u on the rest:

Willis O7.5 (-130)

Bethea U6.5 (-145)

Reid U4.5 (-145)

Laurinitis U8.5 (-125)

Ogletree U8.5 (-105)

I think Bethea was lined at 6, and both Rams LBs were lined at 8 at Bovada. I'm just expecting a tight defensive matchup without many tackle opps on either side.

According to PFF, McLeod only lines up in the box about 9% of the time. He also isn't the most reliable tackler. 6 feels really optimistic for him in this game to me.
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all of them moved, and all off by a half on other sites. grabbed most of them but for less.

thanks

 
comfortably numb said:
Gonna go with over 39.5 on Cook

In his 4 games

4/56

4/46

7/75

4/44

SF is averaging 28 against #1 TE's so we will see.
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yeah his numbers are good but so are WIllis's so i saw no advantage

Code: 
PlayerSort First:       Last:    	Team   	Week   	SFResult	Target  	Rec  	Yard  	TD  	FFPts    Jason Witten	DAL	1	W 28-17 (a)	6	2	14	0	1.4 Gavin Escobar	DAL	1	W 28-17 (a)	1	0	0	0	0.0 Martellus Bennett	CHI	2	L 20-28 (h)	8	7	37	1	9.7 Dante Rosario	CHI	2	L 20-28 (h)	1	1	9	0	0.9 John Carlson	ARI	3	L 14-23 (a)	3	3	33	0	3.3 Darren Fells	ARI	3	L 14-23 (a)	1	0	0	0	0.0 Zach Ertz	PHI	4	W 26-21 (h)	6	4	43	0	4.3 Brent Celek	PHI	4	W 26-21 (h)	2	0	0	0	0.0 Travis Kelce	KC	5	W 22-17 (h)	3	2	15	1	7.5 Anthony Fasano	KC	5	W 22-17 (h)	7	4	32	0	3.2 Demetrius Harris	KC	5	W 22-17 (h)	1	0	0	0	0.0
 
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The latest sports center broadcast ran a story about the last second cover by the broncos this pay weekend. Naturally they talked about Mayweather winning $600K in the cover. They then went on to say....

"Over 95% if the money was on the Broncos".....

I call.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Good Posting Judge said:
ND/FSU off the board everywhere.

Ruh roh:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11697064/florida-state-seminoles-look-jameis-winston-autographs
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was it here that someone posted a link to ebay with winston stuff listed for sale? hundreds of items
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Pretty loose "link" to Todd Gurley. James Spence Authentication (JSA) is one of only a handful of memorabilia authenticators (BGS/PSA/Global/JSA being most trusted). I have sent a few things i've found thrifting to JSA (72 Dolphins ball ftw!), they're really the best with auto'd memorabilia or hand auto'd sportscards that were not released that way by the manufacturer. Last year a handful of guys had the same "investigation" as this: Bridgewater, Clowney, JohnnyF, Boyd, Braxton Miller and others. I heard FSU hasn't found anything and nobody is claiming otherwise.

The media loves it, though.

 
Wow, Price came out almost to the timeline (if that's what its called..hey, i'm new!) to stop a puck, Tampa scores. Never seen that before.

 
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