FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (6 Viewers)

[lumpy19]

looks like i got my denver teasers in just in time

 

[LOCO]

charger +10.5 at 5 dimes

 

[ChainsawU]

One of the things that stuck out in those six short-turnaround games was the lack of scoring in the 1Q, and I found this five cents better than SB and 5D.

Chargers 1Q +½ 115

 

[comfortably numb]

I got CLE to win the division at -160 a couple of weeks ago.

It's at -300 today. Anything happen that I miss?

DRose hurt again?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I got CLE to win the division at -160 a couple of weeks ago.

It's at -300 today. Anything happen that I miss?

DRose hurt again?

Noah is not healthy.

 

[comfortably numb]

I got CLE to win the division at -160 a couple of weeks ago.

It's at -300 today. Anything happen that I miss?

DRose hurt again?

Noah is not healthy.

Ahhhh

got it

Thanks

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I got CLE to win the division at -160 a couple of weeks ago.

It's at -300 today. Anything happen that I miss?

DRose hurt again?

Noah is not healthy.

Ahhhh

got it

Thanks

no idea if that's the reason, but just heard lots of talk on the radio here recently that his knee is not great and he is going to try and play through it. They did add Gasol though.

I assume the line is moving because Cleveland looked good in the preseason or something.

 

[comfortably numb]

I'm in on Hillman o84.5 rec/rush yds

I think Hillman is getting comfortable with his role and looking to win the starting job.

If DEN is up big/early I can see him getting a decent amount of rushing yds.

If DEN is down big and/or late I could see Hillman getting enough receptions to push his total up

 

[The Ref]

It seems like every time I look at RB this week Nebraska is up another .5 points. Lines up to 20 now.

ECU back down to 27.5. I'm going to wait though.

 

[comfortably numb]

added u48 VT/MIA

 

[swirvenirvin]

Allen sure is due for a TD too.. Can get +160 or higher for him scoring a TD.

Scored 4 in last two games vs Den

 

[Raider Nation]

Beware of Sharp objects!

SAN DIEGO at DENVER:
Denver opened at -7, but was immediately bet up to -7.5 by early position takers or sharps preferring the Broncos who knew they wouldn’t see anything cheaper. As of publication time Thursday, we’re now seeing Denver -8 in many stores, with some testing -8.5. As you regular readers know, this is a trouble spot for sportsbooks. Denver is in the teaser window for “basic strategy” two-teamers that cross both the 3 and the 7. Many sharps AND squares will be putting Denver -2 or -2.5 in six-point teasers. (In fact, many Wise Guys will pair Denver up in what had been open-ended teasers with Houston +8.5 from this past Monday Night).

Sources tell us that sharp money on San Diego will eventually hit the board during the day, as dog backers are waiting to see how many points they can get before jumping in. The public is going to bet Denver…which could conceivably push the game all the way to -9. Sharps who wanted Denver are in a -7, and are very happy with teaser options. Sharps preferring San Diego are waiting to see what they can get.

The Over/Under has nudged upward from 51 to 51.5. There’s plenty of time for a bigger move. You saw in Tuesday’s Sun Belt game that steam can really take off on a total in the hours before kickoff.

CONNECTICUT at EAST CAROLINA (Thursday):
This projected blowout was bet up from an opener of East Carolina -26.5 to the somewhat “key” number of -28. It hasn’t moved past the four-TD threshold. This isn’t a high interest game for sharps, or a game the public is likely to bet heavily. Sharps expecting EC to run up the score got in below -28. Value dog bets from old-school sharps are likely to come in late in the day at whatever’s perceived to be the likely apex at the time. No interest yet on the total.

MIAMI at VIRGINIA TECH (Thursday):
Huge move here initially, as the market responded to injury news regarding Virginia Tech and other concerns. We had a flipped favorite for awhile, as an opener of Virginia Tech -3 moved all the way to Miami -2.5 or -3. But, Virginia Tech was BLASTED Thursday morning by some Wise Guys...actually RE-FLIPPING the favorite! Minutes before posting this article, I was seeing Virginia Tech -1 at many locales...but with indications that more Miami money was about to hit the board hard in response. Looks like we have strong opinions from different syndicates on both sides of this game. We have a meaningful move on the total, as an opener of 51.5 has been bet down to 49. Some stores are testing 48.5 as we go to press.

TROY at SOUTH ALABAMA (Friday):
Favored South Alabama was bet up from the opener of 12.5 to the key number of -14. Some of that was position-taking on the assumption that the line would rise. That strategy will lead some Troy money finding the board for middles at +14 or anything better. This isn’t likely to be bet much by the public. USA money is in at -12.5 and -13. Old school “double digit dogs always offer value” money will probably trickle in Friday afternoon.

SOUTH FLORIDA at CINCINNATI (Friday):
It’s always telling when an opener moves towards the underdog. Sharps weren’t waiting to see if public money would come in. South Florida +11 on the opener has been bet down to +10.5, with some +10’s being tested. Sources tell us many of the Wise Guys were surprised the game opened so high and didn’t want to miss the eleven. The Over/Under has been bet up two points from an opener of 58 to 60. That combination is an indictment of the Cincinnati defense. Any “Dog and Over” combo is telling you sharps expect a shootout.

BYU at BOISE STATE (Friday):
Position-takers jumped on Boise State at the opener of -6…because Boise always gets bet at home, and because BYU hasn’t excelled with their new quarterback since star Taysom Hill was lost for the season to injury. But, there’s enough Wise Guy skepticism about Boise State this year when matched up vs. quality that a tug-of-war looks to be starting between Boise State -6.5 and BYU +7. I'm also hearing that the upgrade of BYU running back Jamaal Williams is a factor here, as he's expected to take some of the offensive load away from new quarterback Christian Steart. This is the ESPN game Friday Night, and the public usually bets Boise State on TV. Looks like sharps will have plenty of opportunities to get BYU at +7 or better in the hours leading up to kickoff. The total is up a point from 58 to 59.

OREGON at CALIFORNIA (Friday):
Interesting game here in market terms. Oregon has a history of running up the score, and is often bet by the public. Sharps have generally liked improved California this year…though many took a big hit when the Bears lost at Washington recently. An opener of Oregon -18.5 has come down to Cal +18 or +17.5. That’s telling because it went against the projected square side before squares had much of a chance to bet. Nobody’s waiting to see if they get anything better! More than a few Wise Guys like fading Oregon on the road. It’s only been sharp money coming in early. Sportsbooks are lowering the number to encourage the public to take shots on the Ducks. The Over/Under is up from 78.5 to 80.

Game 3 of the World Series (Friday):
Numbers haven’t been up long as of publication time. Sharps didn’t aggressively jump on the opener of San Francisco -130, with a total of 7 (Guthrie vs. Vogelsong). I will tell you that most of the quants have this is as a dead even series overall, and will likely fade any numbers that move too far away from that projection.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'd be interested in seeing some data on NFL games which closed at exactly 8½.

The unquestioned Wong move is to knock the favorite down to -2½, but I think I'd actually be more comfortable taking the dog +14½. So I'd like to see how often 8½-point favorites win by 15+, compared to how often they win by 2, 1, or lose the game outright. Get to work, Saw!

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I'd be interested in seeing some data on NFL games which closed at exactly 8½.

The unquestioned Wong move is to knock the favorite down to -2½, but I think I'd actually be more comfortable taking the dog +14½. So I'd like to see how often 8½-point favorites win by 15+, compared to how often they win by 2, 1, or lose the game outright. Get to work, Saw!

seems better to cross 3 and 7 than 10 and 14, but I get your point.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'd be interested in seeing some data on NFL games which closed at exactly 8½.

The unquestioned Wong move is to knock the favorite down to -2½, but I think I'd actually be more comfortable taking the dog +14½. So I'd like to see how often 8½-point favorites win by 15+, compared to how often they win by 2, 1, or lose the game outright. Get to work, Saw!

seems better to cross 3 and 7 than 10 and 14, but I get your point.

Definitely, I get the principle behind it... just wondering if the long-term results back it up.

 

[ScoobySnack]

I'd be interested in seeing some data on NFL games which closed at exactly 8½.

The unquestioned Wong move is to knock the favorite down to -2½, but I think I'd actually be more comfortable taking the dog +14½. So I'd like to see how often 8½-point favorites win by 15+, compared to how often they win by 2, 1, or lose the game outright. Get to work, Saw!

seems better to cross 3 and 7 than 10 and 14, but I get your point.

Definitely, I get the principle behind it... just wondering if the long-term results back it up.

Given the history between the Chargers and Broncos I teased the Chargers up. I also believe I lost money last December when I teased Denver down at home against the Chargers.

 

[hagmania]

I'd be interested in seeing some data on NFL games which closed at exactly 8½.

The unquestioned Wong move is to knock the favorite down to -2½, but I think I'd actually be more comfortable taking the dog +14½. So I'd like to see how often 8½-point favorites win by 15+, compared to how often they win by 2, 1, or lose the game outright. Get to work, Saw!

By far, teasing the -8.5 to -2.5 is more successful.

Line = -8.5

Total: 120 games, 79 games with margin <=14.5 vs 92 games with margin >=2.5

2005+: 49 games, 27 games with margin <=14.5 vs 43 games with margin >=2.5

2009+: 28 games, 16 games with margin <=14.5 vs 23 games with margin >=2.5

 

[Angry Beavers]

Put in this three teamer this week:

SD +15/KC -1.5/GB +7.5 - risking 2 units to make 3.6

GLTA
AB

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I'd be interested in seeing some data on NFL games which closed at exactly 8½.

The unquestioned Wong move is to knock the favorite down to -2½, but I think I'd actually be more comfortable taking the dog +14½. So I'd like to see how often 8½-point favorites win by 15+, compared to how often they win by 2, 1, or lose the game outright. Get to work, Saw!

By far, teasing the -8.5 to -2.5 is more successful.

Line = -8.5

Total: 120 games, 79 games with margin <=14.5 vs 92 games with margin >=2.5

I'm a little unclear how to interpret these numbers.

out of 120 games, 79 finished with a margin less than 14.5? and 92 finished with a margin greater than 2.5?

if you have Broncos -2.5 or Chargers +14.5, you win with either of these outcomes above (assuming the favorite won).

 

[hagmania]

I'd be interested in seeing some data on NFL games which closed at exactly 8½.

The unquestioned Wong move is to knock the favorite down to -2½, but I think I'd actually be more comfortable taking the dog +14½. So I'd like to see how often 8½-point favorites win by 15+, compared to how often they win by 2, 1, or lose the game outright. Get to work, Saw!

By far, teasing the -8.5 to -2.5 is more successful.

Line = -8.5

Total: 120 games, 79 games with margin <=14.5 vs 92 games with margin >=2.5

I'm a little unclear how to interpret these numbers.

out of 120 games, 79 finished with a margin less than 14.5? and 92 finished with a margin greater than 2.5?

if you have Broncos -2.5 or Chargers +14.5, you win with either of these outcomes above (assuming the favorite won).

51 of those outcomes intersect.

 

[hagmania]

On another note, the -8.5 is 60-60 ATS. Mind-blowing, really.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I'm on these tackle props tonight. You can probably get better lines on some.

1u V.Miller U5 (-140)

.75u Butler U8.5 (-160)
.5u B.Marshall U8 (-125)
.5u Weddle U6.5 (-115)

Broncos crew ranks dead last in tackles awarded per opportunity.

 

[Raider Nation]

Francesa has been talking about this sports-betting thing in Jersey all day. A guy calls up and says his buddy was in Vegas after SB 45, and he threw $20 on the Giants to win SB 46 at 1000-1 odds. So when the Giants were set to take on the Pats in SB 46 twelve months later and this guy has $20,000 on the line, the caller tells Mike "so my buddy had to get back on a plane to Vegas so he could hedge his bet."

"Sure," Mike says. "Guarantee yourself a $10,000 profit."



How exactly could he guarantee a $10k profit? New England was favored by 3.5, which translates roughly to a -195 ML.

 

[Celph Titled]

The answer is, indirectly, linked in your signature.

 

[Raider Nation]

So what is the proper hedge there (if you're the hedging type)?

$10k on the NE ML, where you walk with either $5k or $10k?

 

[Raider Nation]

P.S. Who did GPJ offend this time?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

P.S. Who did GPJ offend this time?

me

 

[regularguy]

P.S. Who did GPJ offend this time?

me

 

[tonydead]

So what is the proper hedge there (if you're the hedging type)?

$10k on the NE ML, where you walk with either $5k or $10k?

$39 to eliminate losses.

$13,233.56 to get max even outcome ($6,786.44). Then wait until after the game to decide whether to fly to Vegas or not.

 

[loser]

Hillman u 2.5 rec. EVEN

 

[ChainsawU]

Since last season the Chargers are 20-3-2 ATS (.870) in six-point teasers and 14-0-1 ATS in six-point teasers when you tease them as the underdog.

 

[Pumpnick]

chargers +10 -120

 

[The Ref]

I'm betting it now because there is no way I'm not betting it come Saturday.

Zona-Zzu Over 73

If there aint > then 10 TD's in this game Kurt can have my $$.

 

[The Ref]

Just punched ECU - the full 28. Should have jumped earlier.

 

[gmbacm]

Goin with Pitt and Ana on opening faceoffs.

what site has these?

RB

Its not a bad little bet to make but the trick is trying to figure out who is going to take the draws.

my nhl section on rb has

"NHL"

1st

2nd

3rd

is there a prop section?

Yes - with Opening faceoff, To score first, To score last, Overtime Prop and Player Matchups.

thanks guess I am not seeing them all

Interesting, I dont have them at RB either.

 

[The Ref]

Interesting, I dont have them at RB either.


thanks guess I am not seeing them all

Strange... I'm looking right at em?

 

[The Ref]

**** Prediction ****

I got this feeling that it's going to be a bloodbath for big ## favorites this Saturday.

 

[dschuler]

Chargers are a lock tonight as they basically had an extra day to rest and heal. That Sunday night game is tough to rebound from on such a short week.

 

[gmbacm]

Interesting, I dont have them at RB either.


thanks guess I am not seeing them all

Strange... I'm looking right at em?

found them at another book, but small limits.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Was going to parlay but saw chainsaws post and decided to tease

SD/under/VT under

 

[The Ref]

Interesting, I dont have them at RB either.

thanks guess I am not seeing them all

Strange... I'm looking right at em?

found them at another book, but small limits.

I don't ever picture plying these for huge $$. I see this as a play 2-3 games for a small fixed amount and try and bat .667

 

[swirvenirvin]

Goin with Pitt and Ana on opening faceoffs.

what site has these?

RB

Its not a bad little bet to make but the trick is trying to figure out who is going to take the draws.

my nhl section on rb has

"NHL"

1st

2nd

3rd

is there a prop section?

Yes - with Opening faceoff, To score first, To score last, Overtime Prop and Player Matchups.

thanks guess I am not seeing them all

Interesting, I dont have them at RB either.

i emailed him but no response

 

[hagmania]

Chargers are a lock tonight as they basically had an extra day to rest and heal. That Sunday night game is tough to rebound from on such a short week.

It has only happened twice since the start of TNF, but the team with that half a day more of rest is 2-0 ATS.

 

[hagmania]

u51.5 for me.

 

[The Ref]

Will there be a punt without a penalty?

No -10000

 

[The Ref]

Goin with Pitt and Ana on opening faceoffs.

what site has these?

RB

Its not a bad little bet to make but the trick is trying to figure out who is going to take the draws.

my nhl section on rb has "NHL"

1st

2nd

3rd

is there a prop section?

Yes - with Opening faceoff, To score first, To score last, Overtime Prop and Player Matchups.

thanks guess I am not seeing them all

Interesting, I dont have them at RB either.

i emailed him but no response

Ask him to add shots on goal

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Ask him to add shots on goal

that didn't go so well last time

 

[The Ref]

Ask him to add shots on goal

that didn't go so well last time

I was ok with it

 

[comfortably numb]

Small tease

VT/MIA u53.5

VT +8.5

Den -3

Den/SD o45

NYJ +3

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

anyone know anything about this place? looks like they have NHL save props available.

http://www.sportsinteraction.com/sportsbook/about-us/

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/sportsinteraction/