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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Celph Titled
Footballguy
SI's Contrarian NBA strategy: https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2014-15-nba-betting-public-report/
tl;dr: road dogs playing in conference and getting less than 35% public support cover 58% of the time, sample size 528 games.
tl;dr: road dogs playing in conference and getting less than 35% public support cover 58% of the time, sample size 528 games.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
There he is.
Locks and free money plays are now 0-447-2 SU and ATS in here since Jan 8, 2010.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Since 2012, road teams in conference play are 97-50 SU (.660) and 100-45-2 ATS (.690) when they are lined less than 3 points in either direction. The P12 conference accounted for 20 of those games, the most of any conference in that situation, with the road team going 14-6 SU and ATS (.700). During that same time, when the line actually closed at PK, the road team in conference play went 15-3 SU. Teams that fit into that situation this week are AKST, MIAF, AKRON, TXST, WVA, ARZ, and USC.
USC PK -110
USC PK -110
Last edited by a moderator:
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Yeah, if you play high school sports, you deserve to lose money. Oof.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Narrowed down to the best conferences (B12, MWC, SBC, SEC, MAC, ACC, B10, and P12) you get .708 SU and .733 ATS. And when you narrow it down to just B12 teams you get 8-0 SU and ATS.
So when reduced lines get released later today; WVA ML at plus-money.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Mason, especially if Cunningham isn't able to play. Watch the injury reports on that through the weekend.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
jamil
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
107 points in a high school football game? They must do it different down there in texas.....I don't think the teams around here score that many points in a season
mquinnjr
Footballguy
OK, so my post-run dinner after work tonight, 10-in. Over roasted turkey gobbler or my standard 10-in meatball sandwich with provolone/bacon/jalapenos?
Want the turkey one, but the meatball/provolone/bacon/jalapenos is a Friday after work/workout staple.
lumpy19
Footballguy
jamil
Footballguy
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
These two teams are the cream of the crop. They run college type offenses and they have the talent to do so. Last I checked, between the two, they had nine D1 commits. That is nuts for high school.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Meatball -330 for a fistfull
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Royals u 3.5 -130
ScoobySnack
Footballguy
So no sports gambling at in NJ this Sunday. Judge issued temporary injunction!
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Bovada:
Mack o 102.5 -110
Williams-Rhodes u 6.5 -120
Marshall o 78.5 -110
Lasco u 84.5 -130
Mack o 102.5 -110
Williams-Rhodes u 6.5 -120
Marshall o 78.5 -110
Lasco u 84.5 -130
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Since 2013 road teams in Sun Belt Conference games are 29-17-1 (.630) ATS and 21-10-1 (.677) ATS as the road dog. During that same time, when the line has been +12 or more, road dogs in SBC play have gone 9-2-1 (.818) ATS with nine of those 12 games being decided by a touchdown or less. Troy +14½ -105
And then I figured I'd ride this again with the baseball. KC/SF o7 +105
lumpy19
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
jamil
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
I agree with this. With Miller done for the year he is all they have other then Ajayi
Frostillicus
Footballguy
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
So you're saying he's dueMiller's been out two weeks and Rhodes had 6 and 4 catches in those two games.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Brilliant!So you're saying he's dueMiller's been out two weeks and Rhodes had 6 and 4 catches in those two games.
Wait.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
threw in earlier
o7 KC/SF
tease
o51 BYU/BOISE
o72.5 Oregon/Cal
o7 KC/SF
tease
o51 BYU/BOISE
o72.5 Oregon/Cal
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
pushing on a free bet blows...
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Steele: Week 9 picks | Harris: Best bets | CFB PickCenter | ESPN Chalk
Each week during the 2014 college football season, I will offer my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Last week, my picks went 8-2 straight up and 6-4 against the spread. My overall record stands at 61-19 SU and 41-38-1 ATS. After the past three weeks featured several matchups between ranked teams, this week's slate is not as formidable but could feature a couple of trap games for many of the current College Football Playoff contenders.
No. 3 Ole Miss Rebels (minus-3.5) at No. 24 LSU TigersSaturday at 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Tigers are 9-3 in the past 12 games in this series, but the teams have split their past six meetings. Last season, Ole Miss pulled off an upset of No. 6 LSU and there was nothing fluky about it as the Rebels had a 525-388 yardage edge. In terms of ATS, the Rebels have covered 10 of the past 13 meetings between the teams, and the visitor has covered 12 of the past 15.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
Flipping forward to this fall, LSU is playing for a ninth straight week and is coming off a 41-3 win over Kentucky, becoming bowl-eligible for a school-record 15th straight season. It was by far the Tigers' most complete game of the season, as they had a 303-71 rushing yards edge. However, they still field a one-dimensional offense: They have failed to top 150 yards passing in each of their past three games and are completing just 51.4 percent of their passes this season.
Ole Miss is off to its best start since 1962. Last week the Rebels held Tennessee to zero rushing yards, the first time that has happened to an SEC team since 2011 (Florida had minus-15 yards against Georgia). Their defense is allowing just 11 points per game, and they are holding their opponents to 155 yards per game below their season average (No. 3 on the country). While the offense has failed to top 400 yards in any of the past three games, the Bulldogs have been conservative with a 62-to-38 run-pass percentage mix the past two weeks after averaging a 52-48 run-pass mix the first five.
The Tigers could be a popular upset pick this week among many analysts, but remember that they did trail Mississippi State 34-10 at home earlier this season and lost to Auburn by 34. On the other side, Ole Miss is 6-0-1 ATS, and this number is reasonably cheap.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss, 23 LSU 16
No. 13 Ohio State Buckeyes (minus-13.5) at Penn State Nittany LionsSaturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC
The Buckeyes have won nine of the past 12 meetings in this series and have won three straight in Happy Valley by an average of 16 PPG. Last season, Penn State allowed its most points in 114 years (Duquesne, 1899) as Ohio State rolled to a 63-14 win in Columbus.
The Nittany Lions come in fresh off two byes in the past three weeks, and this is clearly their biggest game of the season. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg has seen his passing yards drop in each of the past six games from a season high of 454 against UCF to just 160 against Michigan. The offensive line has been the biggest issue, as it has allowed 15 sacks in Penn State's three Big Ten games and will face an Ohio State defensive line that I ranked No. 1 in the country coming into the season.
After the loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2, Ohio State ranks No. 1 in the FBS the past four weeks in PPG differential (plus-38.8) and YPG differential (plus-313). The Buckeyes also have scored 50-plus points in four straight weeks for the first time in their 125-year history. QB J.T. Barrettis a dark-horse Heisman candidate with a 17-1 TD-to-INT ratio the past four weeks; against Rutgers last week, he topped 100 yards rushing for the first time.
After the Buckeyes didn't climb in the polls last week, I look for them to make yet another statement as not only a legitimate contender in the Big Ten this season but also a threat to make the playoff. They should easily cover their fifth straight game.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 37, Penn State 16
No. 1 Mississippi State Bulldogs (minus-13.5) at Kentucky WildcatsSaturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Mississippi State has won five in a row in this series and four straight in Lexington. Last season, the Bulldogs jumped out to leads of 14-0 and 21-7, but Kentucky rallied and lost only 28-22. This time, Mississippi State is fresh off a bye while Kentucky is playing its fifth straight week and just faced a physical LSU team last week.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Rogelio V. SolisMississippi State QB Dak Prescott has emerged as a bona fide Heisman candidate.
The No. 1 Bulldogs will be playing their first game in history as the top-ranked team in The Associated Press Top 25 poll. Their 6-0 start has been keyed by QB Dak Prescott, who is clearly among the Heisman favorites with 2,045 total yards and 22 touchdowns, while their defense features a sensational front seven that is allowing just 73 rush yards per game on the road.
On the other side, Kentucky is 5-2 but reeling after losing by 38 points at LSU last week, the same LSU team that Mississippi State led 34-10 in the fourth quarter. Also keep in mind that although Kentucky did pull off a home upset over South Carolina earlier this season, it trailed the Gamecocks by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter -- and the Bulldogs are a much better team.
Mississippi State's run offense is averaging 264 YPG and will face a Kentucky defense that allowed 237 rushing yards to Florida, 282 to South Carolina and 303 to LSU last week. The Tigers took Kentucky seriously last week, and I expect Mississippi State to do the same. Bulldogs roll.
ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: Mississippi State 38, Kentucky 20
Quick hitters
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (minus-17) at Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Crimson Tide have won seven in a row over the Volunteers by an average of 25 PPG. It's the longest winning streak by either team in the 112-year-old series. Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin figures to get a rude welcome back to the place he left after just one season (2009). After all the talk of Alabama perhaps losing its dominating ways after less-than-impressive performances against Ole Miss and Arkansas, last week's 59-0 win over Texas A&M was the Crimson Tide's most lopsided SEC win since 1979. Tennessee is coming off a 34-3 loss to Ole Miss. A key mismatch here is an inexperienced Volunteers offensive line that has allowed 26 sacks in its past five games taking on an Alabama defense that had six sacks last week, the most in the Nick Saban era.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Tennessee 13
South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 5 Auburn Tigers (minus-17.5)
Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
The Tigers are 9-1-1 in this series; the only loss was in 1933. They come in fresh off a bye after their loss to No. 1 Mississippi State. On the other side, South Carolina is 4-3 and coming off a win over Furman as defensive coordinator Lorenzo Ward moved up to the press box to try to improve a struggling defense. However, the Gamecocks still allowed 211 yards rushing, which is not good news because they're facing a high-powered Auburn attack that is averaging 262 rushing YPG and has also quietly averaged 257 passing YPG in SEC play (after just 170 last season). Remember that the Tigers have already beaten Arkansas by 24 points and LSU by 34 at home, two teams on the same level as South Carolina, and I will call for their third straight dominating home SEC win here.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 48, South Carolina 20
Texas Longhorns at No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats (minus-10)
Saturday at noon ET, ESPN
[+] Enlarge
Ronald Martinez/Getty ImagesAfter his most recent performances, expectations are on the rise for Texas QB Tyrone Swoopes.
Kansas State had won five in a row in this series (although it was outgained in all five) before last season, when Texas finally broke through with a 31-21 win. Coach Bill Snyder continues to work his magic as the Wildcats are the lone remaining unbeaten team in Big 12 play. However, they do have the toughest remaining schedule of the Big 12's best teams, and can ill afford to look past an underrated Texas squad. Longhorns QBTyrone Swoopes has improved greatly since he took over as the starter and last week had 416 yards of total offense. Texas is on a 9-3 ATS run as an away underdog, and coach Charlie Strong was 9-1 in that role at Louisville. Kansas State will win to remain in first place in the Big 12, but Texas will make it closer than the experts think.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Kansas State 23, Texas 20
No. 14 Arizona State Sun Devils (minus-3.5) at Washington Huskies
Saturday at 10:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
Arizona State has dominated this series, winning eight in a row by an average of 16 PPG. One of the biggest questions here is who will line up behind center for both teams. For the Sun Devils, it looks like Taylor Kelly is ready to reclaim his role after a foot injury kept him out of the past three games. However, backup Mike Bercovici performed admirably in his place, including guiding the team to back-to-back wins over ranked foes. Washington is a much better team at home, especially against the rush, allowing just 106 rushing yards per game. However, QB Cyler Miles had concussion-like symptoms last week and could be questionable. Whether he plays (I will go on record and say he does), Arizona State's back-to-back emotional wins could take their toll, as the Huskies are the ones seeking revenge after their 29-point loss last season. I think Washington pulls an upset here.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 33, Arizona State 30
No. 15 Arizona Wildcats (minus-2.5) at Washington State Cougars
Saturday at 6 p.m. ET
This was a trap game last season. Arizona was coming off an emotional loss to UCLA and had a big game against Oregon on deck while Washington State had 16 days to prep. Washington State held on for a 24-17 win, snapping a series-high five-game losing streak. This year, Arizona is a missed field goal against USC from being 6-0 and possibly being ranked in the AP top 5. On the other side, Washington State has already suffered losses to the likes of California, Nevada and Rutgers (all weaker teams than Arizona). I think Arizona's young skill position players will get better each week, and off a bye after the heartbreaking loss to USC, I will call for them to get revenge here.
ATS pick: Arizona
Score: Arizona 41, Washington State 34
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 16 Nebraska Cornhuskers (minus-17.5)
Saturday at noon ET, ESPN2
The Cornhuskers come in at 6-1 and have covered their past five games, including last week's impressive 38-17 win at Northwestern. They have had a lot of great running backs in their storied history, but Ameer Abdullah is the first to have three 1,000-yard rushing seasons. Rutgers, on the other hand, last week suffered its worst loss in 12 years, and it could have been worse, as Ohio State led 49-7 midway through the third quarter before winning 56-17. Now the Scarlet Knights have to make a second straight long road trip. After allowing 324 rushing yards last week, they face a Nebraska team averaging 374 rushing yards at home this season. Also notable is the fact that Rutgers, despite a 5-2 record, is getting outgained this season. I will call for the Huskers to make it six straight covers with a dominating win.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 40, Rutgers 16
No. 22 West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys (minus-1)
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Cowboys are playing with revenge on their minds after getting upset 30-21 as a 19-point favorite last season in Morgantown. They came into 2014 ranking dead last in my experience rankings, but coach Mike Gundy did a great job getting them to a 5-1 start, with their only loss coming against Florida State. However, they were given a dose of reality last week at TCU, suffering their biggest defeat in five years. While they are 3-1 in Big 12 play this season, they are getting outgained by 107 YPG, and three of those games came against Big 12 bottom-feeders Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech. On the other side, West Virginia is also 3-1 in Big 12 play, but the Mountaineers are outgaining their conference foes by 127 YPG. West Virginia pulls the upset (if you can really call it one), and there is a good chance Oklahoma State will be an underdog in at least three of its final four games.
ATS pick: West Virginia
Score: West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 30
Each week during the 2014 college football season, I will offer my picks and scores for the biggest games, in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Last week, my picks went 8-2 straight up and 6-4 against the spread. My overall record stands at 61-19 SU and 41-38-1 ATS. After the past three weeks featured several matchups between ranked teams, this week's slate is not as formidable but could feature a couple of trap games for many of the current College Football Playoff contenders.
No. 3 Ole Miss Rebels (minus-3.5) at No. 24 LSU TigersSaturday at 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Tigers are 9-3 in the past 12 games in this series, but the teams have split their past six meetings. Last season, Ole Miss pulled off an upset of No. 6 LSU and there was nothing fluky about it as the Rebels had a 525-388 yardage edge. In terms of ATS, the Rebels have covered 10 of the past 13 meetings between the teams, and the visitor has covered 12 of the past 15.
Insider PickCenter
Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
Flipping forward to this fall, LSU is playing for a ninth straight week and is coming off a 41-3 win over Kentucky, becoming bowl-eligible for a school-record 15th straight season. It was by far the Tigers' most complete game of the season, as they had a 303-71 rushing yards edge. However, they still field a one-dimensional offense: They have failed to top 150 yards passing in each of their past three games and are completing just 51.4 percent of their passes this season.
Ole Miss is off to its best start since 1962. Last week the Rebels held Tennessee to zero rushing yards, the first time that has happened to an SEC team since 2011 (Florida had minus-15 yards against Georgia). Their defense is allowing just 11 points per game, and they are holding their opponents to 155 yards per game below their season average (No. 3 on the country). While the offense has failed to top 400 yards in any of the past three games, the Bulldogs have been conservative with a 62-to-38 run-pass percentage mix the past two weeks after averaging a 52-48 run-pass mix the first five.
The Tigers could be a popular upset pick this week among many analysts, but remember that they did trail Mississippi State 34-10 at home earlier this season and lost to Auburn by 34. On the other side, Ole Miss is 6-0-1 ATS, and this number is reasonably cheap.
ATS pick: Ole Miss
Score: Ole Miss, 23 LSU 16
No. 13 Ohio State Buckeyes (minus-13.5) at Penn State Nittany LionsSaturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC
The Buckeyes have won nine of the past 12 meetings in this series and have won three straight in Happy Valley by an average of 16 PPG. Last season, Penn State allowed its most points in 114 years (Duquesne, 1899) as Ohio State rolled to a 63-14 win in Columbus.
The Nittany Lions come in fresh off two byes in the past three weeks, and this is clearly their biggest game of the season. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg has seen his passing yards drop in each of the past six games from a season high of 454 against UCF to just 160 against Michigan. The offensive line has been the biggest issue, as it has allowed 15 sacks in Penn State's three Big Ten games and will face an Ohio State defensive line that I ranked No. 1 in the country coming into the season.
After the loss to Virginia Tech in Week 2, Ohio State ranks No. 1 in the FBS the past four weeks in PPG differential (plus-38.8) and YPG differential (plus-313). The Buckeyes also have scored 50-plus points in four straight weeks for the first time in their 125-year history. QB J.T. Barrettis a dark-horse Heisman candidate with a 17-1 TD-to-INT ratio the past four weeks; against Rutgers last week, he topped 100 yards rushing for the first time.
After the Buckeyes didn't climb in the polls last week, I look for them to make yet another statement as not only a legitimate contender in the Big Ten this season but also a threat to make the playoff. They should easily cover their fifth straight game.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 37, Penn State 16
No. 1 Mississippi State Bulldogs (minus-13.5) at Kentucky WildcatsSaturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
Mississippi State has won five in a row in this series and four straight in Lexington. Last season, the Bulldogs jumped out to leads of 14-0 and 21-7, but Kentucky rallied and lost only 28-22. This time, Mississippi State is fresh off a bye while Kentucky is playing its fifth straight week and just faced a physical LSU team last week.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Rogelio V. SolisMississippi State QB Dak Prescott has emerged as a bona fide Heisman candidate.The No. 1 Bulldogs will be playing their first game in history as the top-ranked team in The Associated Press Top 25 poll. Their 6-0 start has been keyed by QB Dak Prescott, who is clearly among the Heisman favorites with 2,045 total yards and 22 touchdowns, while their defense features a sensational front seven that is allowing just 73 rush yards per game on the road.
On the other side, Kentucky is 5-2 but reeling after losing by 38 points at LSU last week, the same LSU team that Mississippi State led 34-10 in the fourth quarter. Also keep in mind that although Kentucky did pull off a home upset over South Carolina earlier this season, it trailed the Gamecocks by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter -- and the Bulldogs are a much better team.
Mississippi State's run offense is averaging 264 YPG and will face a Kentucky defense that allowed 237 rushing yards to Florida, 282 to South Carolina and 303 to LSU last week. The Tigers took Kentucky seriously last week, and I expect Mississippi State to do the same. Bulldogs roll.
ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: Mississippi State 38, Kentucky 20
Quick hitters
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (minus-17) at Tennessee Volunteers
Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Crimson Tide have won seven in a row over the Volunteers by an average of 25 PPG. It's the longest winning streak by either team in the 112-year-old series. Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin figures to get a rude welcome back to the place he left after just one season (2009). After all the talk of Alabama perhaps losing its dominating ways after less-than-impressive performances against Ole Miss and Arkansas, last week's 59-0 win over Texas A&M was the Crimson Tide's most lopsided SEC win since 1979. Tennessee is coming off a 34-3 loss to Ole Miss. A key mismatch here is an inexperienced Volunteers offensive line that has allowed 26 sacks in its past five games taking on an Alabama defense that had six sacks last week, the most in the Nick Saban era.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 31, Tennessee 13
South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 5 Auburn Tigers (minus-17.5)
Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network
The Tigers are 9-1-1 in this series; the only loss was in 1933. They come in fresh off a bye after their loss to No. 1 Mississippi State. On the other side, South Carolina is 4-3 and coming off a win over Furman as defensive coordinator Lorenzo Ward moved up to the press box to try to improve a struggling defense. However, the Gamecocks still allowed 211 yards rushing, which is not good news because they're facing a high-powered Auburn attack that is averaging 262 rushing YPG and has also quietly averaged 257 passing YPG in SEC play (after just 170 last season). Remember that the Tigers have already beaten Arkansas by 24 points and LSU by 34 at home, two teams on the same level as South Carolina, and I will call for their third straight dominating home SEC win here.
ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 48, South Carolina 20
Texas Longhorns at No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats (minus-10)
Saturday at noon ET, ESPN
[+] Enlarge
Ronald Martinez/Getty ImagesAfter his most recent performances, expectations are on the rise for Texas QB Tyrone Swoopes.Kansas State had won five in a row in this series (although it was outgained in all five) before last season, when Texas finally broke through with a 31-21 win. Coach Bill Snyder continues to work his magic as the Wildcats are the lone remaining unbeaten team in Big 12 play. However, they do have the toughest remaining schedule of the Big 12's best teams, and can ill afford to look past an underrated Texas squad. Longhorns QBTyrone Swoopes has improved greatly since he took over as the starter and last week had 416 yards of total offense. Texas is on a 9-3 ATS run as an away underdog, and coach Charlie Strong was 9-1 in that role at Louisville. Kansas State will win to remain in first place in the Big 12, but Texas will make it closer than the experts think.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Kansas State 23, Texas 20
No. 14 Arizona State Sun Devils (minus-3.5) at Washington Huskies
Saturday at 10:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
Arizona State has dominated this series, winning eight in a row by an average of 16 PPG. One of the biggest questions here is who will line up behind center for both teams. For the Sun Devils, it looks like Taylor Kelly is ready to reclaim his role after a foot injury kept him out of the past three games. However, backup Mike Bercovici performed admirably in his place, including guiding the team to back-to-back wins over ranked foes. Washington is a much better team at home, especially against the rush, allowing just 106 rushing yards per game. However, QB Cyler Miles had concussion-like symptoms last week and could be questionable. Whether he plays (I will go on record and say he does), Arizona State's back-to-back emotional wins could take their toll, as the Huskies are the ones seeking revenge after their 29-point loss last season. I think Washington pulls an upset here.
ATS pick: Washington
Score: Washington 33, Arizona State 30
No. 15 Arizona Wildcats (minus-2.5) at Washington State Cougars
Saturday at 6 p.m. ET
This was a trap game last season. Arizona was coming off an emotional loss to UCLA and had a big game against Oregon on deck while Washington State had 16 days to prep. Washington State held on for a 24-17 win, snapping a series-high five-game losing streak. This year, Arizona is a missed field goal against USC from being 6-0 and possibly being ranked in the AP top 5. On the other side, Washington State has already suffered losses to the likes of California, Nevada and Rutgers (all weaker teams than Arizona). I think Arizona's young skill position players will get better each week, and off a bye after the heartbreaking loss to USC, I will call for them to get revenge here.
ATS pick: Arizona
Score: Arizona 41, Washington State 34
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 16 Nebraska Cornhuskers (minus-17.5)
Saturday at noon ET, ESPN2
The Cornhuskers come in at 6-1 and have covered their past five games, including last week's impressive 38-17 win at Northwestern. They have had a lot of great running backs in their storied history, but Ameer Abdullah is the first to have three 1,000-yard rushing seasons. Rutgers, on the other hand, last week suffered its worst loss in 12 years, and it could have been worse, as Ohio State led 49-7 midway through the third quarter before winning 56-17. Now the Scarlet Knights have to make a second straight long road trip. After allowing 324 rushing yards last week, they face a Nebraska team averaging 374 rushing yards at home this season. Also notable is the fact that Rutgers, despite a 5-2 record, is getting outgained this season. I will call for the Huskers to make it six straight covers with a dominating win.
ATS pick: Nebraska
Score: Nebraska 40, Rutgers 16
No. 22 West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys (minus-1)
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Cowboys are playing with revenge on their minds after getting upset 30-21 as a 19-point favorite last season in Morgantown. They came into 2014 ranking dead last in my experience rankings, but coach Mike Gundy did a great job getting them to a 5-1 start, with their only loss coming against Florida State. However, they were given a dose of reality last week at TCU, suffering their biggest defeat in five years. While they are 3-1 in Big 12 play this season, they are getting outgained by 107 YPG, and three of those games came against Big 12 bottom-feeders Iowa State, Kansas and Texas Tech. On the other side, West Virginia is also 3-1 in Big 12 play, but the Mountaineers are outgaining their conference foes by 127 YPG. West Virginia pulls the upset (if you can really call it one), and there is a good chance Oklahoma State will be an underdog in at least three of its final four games.
ATS pick: West Virginia
Score: West Virginia 34, Oklahoma State 30
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Before we get to the betting preview, consider for a moment that there are a lot of good grapplers competing this weekend. There will be a few wrestling mismatches, but interestingly in the main and co-main event, all four fighters are really good at staying off their backs. Who will get top control in these fights? Will it lead to striking duels?
Or will two NCAA wrestlers pull off upsets over the Brazilians? We'll take a looks at these two fights in more detail, and also explore potentially attractive prop plays for the bettors out there.
No. 4 Glover Teixeira (minus-325) vs. No. 6 Phil Davis (plus-265)The co-main event pits Teixeira, the division's most recent title challenger, against Davis, who in theory was one win away from a title shot. Both fought and lost one-sided decisions at UFC 172 in April, but only one can rebound to prevent dropping to gatekeeper status.
Interestingly, Davis is a sizable underdog despite being the much bigger and younger fighter. He is a physical superfreak, and that counts for a lot in high-level competition. Davis' two career losses came against highly ranked, experienced wrestlers in Rashad Evans and Anthony Johnson. Teixeira doesn't really fit that profile. Teixeira is certainly the more dangerous finisher with power in his hands and also a second-degree BJJ black belt to his credit. But against a rangy and durable Jon Jones, Teixeira was picked apart and absorbed a mighty beating. Davis is not one to score a knockout with his hands, but cardio, durability and a grinding wrestling game all make Davis a live dog. You could say he always has a "wrestler's chance" in a fight, and that is arguably better than a "puncher's chance."
Reed Kuhn
Teixeira has defended nine of 12 takedowns to date, and that defensive metric will be the key to this fight. Davis has submitted inferior wrestlers, and has stolen rounds with his wrestling on more dangerous grapplers like Lyoto Machidaand Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He's unlikely to submit Teixeira, but his wrestling at least gives him a path to victory against a striker in Teixeira who doesn't always control the cage or press the pace. Teixeira is clearly the better mixed martial artist here, but sometimes that's not enough when a dominant wrestler is in the cage.
Insider Recommends: The toughness of both fighters and the potential for each man to work hard to avoid the strengths of the other make the "over" of 2.5 rounds the best play here. You have to lay 2-to-1 juice for it, but the over here makes for good parlay material, and Teixeira at an even higher price is too risky. Given how steep the line is (Teixeira is the biggest favorite on the main card, third-biggest of the night), a small upset prop on Davis by decision at more than plus-350 is worth a small stab for the value.
© Jose Aldo (minus-230) vs. No. 1 Chad Mendes (plus-190)Mendes 2.0 looks like a much more even matchup against Aldo than in their first fight. Being a "wrestler" first three years ago, Mendes forced the takedown attempts too much and went 0-for-7 in one round trying to get Aldo to the mat. Without the threat of striking (Mendes landed only one punch in that round), Aldo was content to strike and fade and defend the takedowns, something he has historically done very well. Plenty of opponents try to test Aldo on the ground, but very few ever get there.
Reed Kuhn
However, this is a five-round fight, and the takedowns that have succeeded against Aldo in the past have generally come late in the game. Frankie Edgarand Mark Hominick both managed to secure top control and steal late rounds against the champ in otherwise losing efforts. So the key to defeating Aldo is getting him down a round or two earlier and grinding him down.
Still, from statistical standpoint, Aldo's stats are even more impressive considering his six UFC opponents (and several WEC opponents before that) all were elite fighters, a far more difficult strength of schedule than Mendes has faced in his current winning streak. Aldo still will have the reach advantage and the same dangerous striking and elusive defense. Knowing that you need to take him down is much easier said than done. Champions normally defend their titles about three out of four times, so you can either say he's "due for an upset" or simply that he should win here more times than not. Aldo gets the edge on paper, just barely, but that doesn't factor in the betting line.
Insider Recommends: Here's yet another instance where a fantastic mixed martial artist is at risk against a dominant wrestler. The betting line has been quite volatile, with Mendes going as low as plus-150, and as high as plus-325. There's definitely value in Mendes for the upset if you can get him at a good price (more than plus-200). A prop on Mendes by split decision is a juicy plus-800 and should be used if you end up playing the champion in parlays or straight up.
Closing Lines: Interesting Totals and PropsThere's some decent upset potential at the end of the UFC 179 card. Elsewhere, the lines are mostly pretty tight. In fact, the card overall has slightly tighter lines than historical event averages due to some close matchups and probably a lot of uncertainty on the undercard. That makes playing a fighter you know well a little less risky overall.
The prevalence of solid wrestlers on the card and the overall small average size of the fighters competing support more plays on the over. Just two fights are taking place above welterweight, so overall expect at least half of the fights to go the distance. The most likely exception is probably Fabio Maldonado vs. Hans Stringer, which is at light heavyweight (more than half of light heavyweight fights end inside the distance), so getting plus-170 for an under here is decent value.
In the biggest odds mismatch of the night, Yan Cabral is a plus-650 favorite over Naoyuki Kotani. It's a matchup of two submission specialists, except the Brazilian from the Nova União team should have the upper hand. Japanese fighters have performed very poorly in the UFC to date, but the more important trend is that fights with extreme betting odds are much more likely to end early. So instead of taking Cabral at such low value, take an inside-the-distance play here at nearly even money, as the over/under limit of 1.5 rounds is a tight one.
Also look for fights where a fighter has a good chance to win but tends to win via a particular method. Darren Elkins falls into this category as another experienced wrestler facing a striker he won't want to trade with. If you favor Elkins, consider taking the over instead, or a prop on Elkins by decision for even better value.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values, e.g., a moneyline of minus-300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100. Underdogs are positive values, e.g., a moneyline of plus-250 means you win $250 by risking only $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
Or will two NCAA wrestlers pull off upsets over the Brazilians? We'll take a looks at these two fights in more detail, and also explore potentially attractive prop plays for the bettors out there.
No. 4 Glover Teixeira (minus-325) vs. No. 6 Phil Davis (plus-265)The co-main event pits Teixeira, the division's most recent title challenger, against Davis, who in theory was one win away from a title shot. Both fought and lost one-sided decisions at UFC 172 in April, but only one can rebound to prevent dropping to gatekeeper status.
Interestingly, Davis is a sizable underdog despite being the much bigger and younger fighter. He is a physical superfreak, and that counts for a lot in high-level competition. Davis' two career losses came against highly ranked, experienced wrestlers in Rashad Evans and Anthony Johnson. Teixeira doesn't really fit that profile. Teixeira is certainly the more dangerous finisher with power in his hands and also a second-degree BJJ black belt to his credit. But against a rangy and durable Jon Jones, Teixeira was picked apart and absorbed a mighty beating. Davis is not one to score a knockout with his hands, but cardio, durability and a grinding wrestling game all make Davis a live dog. You could say he always has a "wrestler's chance" in a fight, and that is arguably better than a "puncher's chance."
Teixeira has defended nine of 12 takedowns to date, and that defensive metric will be the key to this fight. Davis has submitted inferior wrestlers, and has stolen rounds with his wrestling on more dangerous grapplers like Lyoto Machidaand Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He's unlikely to submit Teixeira, but his wrestling at least gives him a path to victory against a striker in Teixeira who doesn't always control the cage or press the pace. Teixeira is clearly the better mixed martial artist here, but sometimes that's not enough when a dominant wrestler is in the cage.
Insider Recommends: The toughness of both fighters and the potential for each man to work hard to avoid the strengths of the other make the "over" of 2.5 rounds the best play here. You have to lay 2-to-1 juice for it, but the over here makes for good parlay material, and Teixeira at an even higher price is too risky. Given how steep the line is (Teixeira is the biggest favorite on the main card, third-biggest of the night), a small upset prop on Davis by decision at more than plus-350 is worth a small stab for the value.
© Jose Aldo (minus-230) vs. No. 1 Chad Mendes (plus-190)Mendes 2.0 looks like a much more even matchup against Aldo than in their first fight. Being a "wrestler" first three years ago, Mendes forced the takedown attempts too much and went 0-for-7 in one round trying to get Aldo to the mat. Without the threat of striking (Mendes landed only one punch in that round), Aldo was content to strike and fade and defend the takedowns, something he has historically done very well. Plenty of opponents try to test Aldo on the ground, but very few ever get there.
However, this is a five-round fight, and the takedowns that have succeeded against Aldo in the past have generally come late in the game. Frankie Edgarand Mark Hominick both managed to secure top control and steal late rounds against the champ in otherwise losing efforts. So the key to defeating Aldo is getting him down a round or two earlier and grinding him down.
Still, from statistical standpoint, Aldo's stats are even more impressive considering his six UFC opponents (and several WEC opponents before that) all were elite fighters, a far more difficult strength of schedule than Mendes has faced in his current winning streak. Aldo still will have the reach advantage and the same dangerous striking and elusive defense. Knowing that you need to take him down is much easier said than done. Champions normally defend their titles about three out of four times, so you can either say he's "due for an upset" or simply that he should win here more times than not. Aldo gets the edge on paper, just barely, but that doesn't factor in the betting line.
Insider Recommends: Here's yet another instance where a fantastic mixed martial artist is at risk against a dominant wrestler. The betting line has been quite volatile, with Mendes going as low as plus-150, and as high as plus-325. There's definitely value in Mendes for the upset if you can get him at a good price (more than plus-200). A prop on Mendes by split decision is a juicy plus-800 and should be used if you end up playing the champion in parlays or straight up.
Closing Lines: Interesting Totals and PropsThere's some decent upset potential at the end of the UFC 179 card. Elsewhere, the lines are mostly pretty tight. In fact, the card overall has slightly tighter lines than historical event averages due to some close matchups and probably a lot of uncertainty on the undercard. That makes playing a fighter you know well a little less risky overall.
The prevalence of solid wrestlers on the card and the overall small average size of the fighters competing support more plays on the over. Just two fights are taking place above welterweight, so overall expect at least half of the fights to go the distance. The most likely exception is probably Fabio Maldonado vs. Hans Stringer, which is at light heavyweight (more than half of light heavyweight fights end inside the distance), so getting plus-170 for an under here is decent value.
In the biggest odds mismatch of the night, Yan Cabral is a plus-650 favorite over Naoyuki Kotani. It's a matchup of two submission specialists, except the Brazilian from the Nova União team should have the upper hand. Japanese fighters have performed very poorly in the UFC to date, but the more important trend is that fights with extreme betting odds are much more likely to end early. So instead of taking Cabral at such low value, take an inside-the-distance play here at nearly even money, as the over/under limit of 1.5 rounds is a tight one.
Also look for fights where a fighter has a good chance to win but tends to win via a particular method. Darren Elkins falls into this category as another experienced wrestler facing a striker he won't want to trade with. If you favor Elkins, consider taking the over instead, or a prop on Elkins by decision for even better value.
In moneyline odds presented here, favorites are negative values, e.g., a moneyline of minus-300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100. Underdogs are positive values, e.g., a moneyline of plus-250 means you win $250 by risking only $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations or account for final closing lines. Raw data is provided by Fight Metric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Damn, I was searching for this post to give you props. I thought it was about this Oregon/CAL game for some reason.
This thing is gonna double the freakin total.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
107.5 live. 
comfortably numb
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Arsenal -145
mquinnjr
Footballguy
107.5 live.
thought when I got 91.5 I was stealing money on the under. No way Cal keeps scoring too!!!
The Ref
Footballguy
I got the same quote for this game as well. Rud is actualy at this game and we talked about how it was going to be a shootout earlier this week.
