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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
belljr
Footballguy
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
I will be so drunk by the time this game is over. That's a good thing. Wind out of the north, blanket of stars. I may sleep outside.
Man In The Box
Footballguy
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mquinnjr
Footballguy
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
No idea their line but when looking at Minnie more closely today (for FF), realized they had a brutal first half, which included N.E., N.O., G.B. and DET. They're other loss was at BUFF with a last second TD. Had 5 on the road that first half. So they get 5 of the 8 at home (yeah, in the line and all but still). Bridgewater should only get better and they get a 3-game home stretch which includes the Jets and Panthers (and GB). They also get Wash at home this weekend and it is a great week to play them (on the road again on the heals of that big Dallas OT road win). And I don't care who starts at QB for Wash, it's a nice matchup. Did I mention I like Minnie this week?
Another big reason is that D looks legit; that alone should keep em in most games.
Roadies are CHI, DET and MIA, btw.
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Three sheets to the wind is a reference to a sailing ship. Closest water to me that I could possibly sail on would be Lake Amistad. Then again, if I weren't two fisting tequila I might be up for that.
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Panda runs like he's pulling a trailer. Pence has to stop one base before he could reach because Panda is such a fatass
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
yeah, but he doesn't have the stats to win with the voters.
Rams crew is tough for tackles, so he won't get the same type of inflation that Richardson had with the Jets last year, and 2 sacks in half a season isn't really DROY level production.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Right now I'm quite sure the voting would go 1) Mosley, 2) Barr, 3) Fuller. At the end of the season, I expect 3) to be Mack.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
was somewhat thinking that this guy broke it down too much. May be the best player but not putting up the gaudy numbers on the Rams
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
I'm not sure that he's necessarily talking about DROY. These guys are looking at player grades, technique and these game tape clips, not just tackle stats or anything else that ROY voters are focusing on. The guy can dominate the line of scrimmage like no other, but if he's not getting stats, he's not getting hardware.
got_nugs
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
I sure hope I see an Olsen at 5 tomorrow due to his bad game last week. Although statistically the Saints have good numbers vs TE's they have played absolute crap with Witten being the best.
Here are the numbers for the top TE's they have face. Its about a 70% completion for these bums.
Levine Toilolo ATL 1 L 34-37 (a) 6 3 19
Gary Barnidge CLE 2 L 24-26 (a) 4 4 41
Kyle Rudolph MIN 3 W 20-9 (h) 5 3 27
Jason Witten DAL 4 L 17-38 (a) 5 5 61
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 5 W 37-31 (h) 3 1 11
Brandon Pettigrew DET 7 L 23-24 (a) 6 4 28
Richard Rodgers GB 8 W 44-23 (h) 5 4 58
Here are the numbers for the top TE's they have face. Its about a 70% completion for these bums.
Levine Toilolo ATL 1 L 34-37 (a) 6 3 19
Gary Barnidge CLE 2 L 24-26 (a) 4 4 41
Kyle Rudolph MIN 3 W 20-9 (h) 5 3 27
Jason Witten DAL 4 L 17-38 (a) 5 5 61
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 5 W 37-31 (h) 3 1 11
Brandon Pettigrew DET 7 L 23-24 (a) 6 4 28
Richard Rodgers GB 8 W 44-23 (h) 5 4 58
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TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Here's a recent article from NFL.com where their talking heads did midseason award predictions. 6 Mosley's, 2 Barr's, 1 Fuller, 1 Verrett (some fruitcake said both Mosley and Verrett for some reason). Pretty indicative of how the voting would go if it were done this week. A looooooong time to go, unfortunately, alot can change.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000418820/article/nfl-midseason-predictions-mvp-rookie-of-the-year-and-more
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000418820/article/nfl-midseason-predictions-mvp-rookie-of-the-year-and-more
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Peyton Marino
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Not only is he "in the discussion", but he's gonna win it going away, IMO.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
They're looking at 9-122-2 and 3-157-1, short term memory. I really like Benjamin's remaining schedule. He's got NO twice, Atlanta twice, Phi, Min, TB, and Cle.
Benjamin is on a 76-1142-10 pace. Watkins 76-1180-10. Carr 3467-21-11. Give it to the QB again!!!!
Look at Watkins pace since Orton took over. It may not even be close.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
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Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Does team success generally factor in to the ROY award? If so, hard to give it to the QB of an 0-16 team.
MB
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
to that. 
all around.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
FF Question:
Would you guys drop any of these guys for Charles Sims in keep 3 format where he could be kept as a last round pick for up through 2017, with a backfield of Ellington (kept), Lamar Miller (keepable), Tre Mason (keepable), Ryan Mathews (unkeepable), Joique Bell, (unkeepable) and Theo Riddick (keepable)?
Would you guys drop any of these guys for Charles Sims in keep 3 format where he could be kept as a last round pick for up through 2017, with a backfield of Ellington (kept), Lamar Miller (keepable), Tre Mason (keepable), Ryan Mathews (unkeepable), Joique Bell, (unkeepable) and Theo Riddick (keepable)?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I made a speculative pickup on Sims in a few leagues, but it's hard to answer your question without seeing him in action for a few games. That said, I'd have to think he has more long-term value than Riddick.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Dropped Theo for him, was leaning that way anyways. Who would potentially burn me the least while making sure I get this guy on my roster, I think Riddick too. Save injury, Bell will have some value/a role in that offense with Calvin back soon, who i was also considering.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
My bad. I put him in the thread title to make it more clear.
hagmania
Footballguy
I got dis!
They covered in their last Away game @DET. But I suspect you mean as a road favorite.
Here are the numbers:
Since Jimmy Graham's rise to stud TE in 2011, the Saints are 11-17 SU and 10-18 ATS. As road favorites, the Saints are 10-8 SU, 7-11 ATS. Their last cover as a road favorite was week 5 2013 @CHI; they are 0-6 since then.
In divisional away games >=2011 they are 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS against an avg line of -2.4, median line of -2.75. As a divisional road favorite they are 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS. Their last cover as a divisional road favorite was week 7 2012 @TB; they are 0-3 since then.
@CAR >=2011, they have lost their last 2 SU and all 3 ATS against lines of -6, -2.5, and +3.
They covered in their last Away game @DET. But I suspect you mean as a road favorite.
Here are the numbers:
Since Jimmy Graham's rise to stud TE in 2011, the Saints are 11-17 SU and 10-18 ATS. As road favorites, the Saints are 10-8 SU, 7-11 ATS. Their last cover as a road favorite was week 5 2013 @CHI; they are 0-6 since then.
In divisional away games >=2011 they are 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS against an avg line of -2.4, median line of -2.75. As a divisional road favorite they are 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS. Their last cover as a divisional road favorite was week 7 2012 @TB; they are 0-3 since then.
@CAR >=2011, they have lost their last 2 SU and all 3 ATS against lines of -6, -2.5, and +3.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
How about on short rest away
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
sb.ag has olsen over 5 -140
dino259
Footballguy
Maybe this was a unique situation since it was the first and second game of the season instead of in the middle of a season and a week long road trip.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Dino, I hear you man. Just to put it out there, I did look at it from the midseason angle versus the beginning of season angle, with those most recent results with the lined favorites coming in early November last year. I look at it from nineteen different ways just to be sure. I have literally a whole page of my spiral notebook written about the two different home dog and B2B angles I used the last two days, but the Rockets just destroyed everything I tried to do.
At halftime everything was even, except for the three-pointers. Rockets were like 9/14 from three at the half, with Harden responsible for four of those - he was 4/4 from three by himself at the half. Utah was behind by 8 at the half but brought it to within three points at the end of the 3Q. It was all about the three pointer last night. Utah got cold shooting in the 4Q, and all the Rockets did was drive and kick out to the arc and boom, another three-pointer, one after the other.
Utah fought them harder than the Lakers did, that's for sure. The Lakers were covering the 7 points for about 8 minutes in the 1Q on Tuesday. At least Utah did something. And their big man blocked a lot of shots down low, which was what I was worried about - how were they going to stop Howard without getting him into foul trouble like the Lakers did early. Anyway, my bad for those. I didn't see it coming like that. It got me, too.
At halftime everything was even, except for the three-pointers. Rockets were like 9/14 from three at the half, with Harden responsible for four of those - he was 4/4 from three by himself at the half. Utah was behind by 8 at the half but brought it to within three points at the end of the 3Q. It was all about the three pointer last night. Utah got cold shooting in the 4Q, and all the Rockets did was drive and kick out to the arc and boom, another three-pointer, one after the other.
Utah fought them harder than the Lakers did, that's for sure. The Lakers were covering the 7 points for about 8 minutes in the 1Q on Tuesday. At least Utah did something. And their big man blocked a lot of shots down low, which was what I was worried about - how were they going to stop Howard without getting him into foul trouble like the Lakers did early. Anyway, my bad for those. I didn't see it coming like that. It got me, too.
regularguy
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
That's one of my nightmares, dude. Come home and the house will be burned down or some #### equally as disturbing. When I came home the other night and all the police and ambulances were here because of the shooting I was just like, here we go, house burned down. Some dude even got stabbed in the neck during that whole thing. I had to drive the back way home, and even then convince a policeman that I was indeed on my way to my actual home that I lived in, just so I could get down my street. It sucked.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Schefter: Patriot-ordered weather for Sunday: 30-40mph gusts at Gillette. low to mid 40s, will feel like 32. Should be dry, via @LeeGoldbergABC7.
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I wanted to come into today and play Carolina +3 and also a Brees prop that he throws a pick. Is this line movement weird, though? Yesterday I found out that Brees has played 7 home games and 6 road games versus Carolina since 2007, and he has averaged 1.1 ±0.6 picks per game (1.3 ±0.5 away). Brees and the Saints are 16-26 (.381) SU and 12-29-1 (.293) ATS on the road when Brees throws a pick (avg line -2.2). He has thrown at least one pick in all six games in Carolina since 2007.
During that same time they are 16-6 (.787) SU and ATS on the road (avg line -1.5) when Brees throws zero picks.
During that same time they are 16-6 (.787) SU and ATS on the road (avg line -1.5) when Brees throws zero picks.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
In the secondary, teams have found the most success targeting the slot. Kenny Vacarro was struggling to defend the slot all season and in the bye week Rob Ryan made the move to use safety Marcus Ball in the slot instead. Ball predictably struggled (-2.3) and allowed Randall Cobb to catch all four targets against him for 56 yards. The Panthers will flex Greg Olsen out into the slot and he should feast on this plus matchup.
