If anyone listen's to Scott Van Pelt's ESPN show, apparently their producer, Stanford Steve, has a hot hand picking CFB games. Here is this week's picks FWIW:
http://espn.go.com/espn/chalk/story/_/id/11783519/espn-chalk-espn-experts-pick-top-college-football-games-week-10
Oregon Ducks (-7.5) at
Stanford Cardinal
Fallica: Since losing to Arizona, the Ducks have scored a touchdown on 19 of their 38 drives. It's widely known
Marcus Mariota had struggled in two games against the Cardinal, getting sacked six times, turning the ball over twice and posting a QBR of 67, 21 points below his career QBR of 88. While the Stanford defense has played well this season, the offense has lagged behind. Oregon stays on track for a Pac-12 title with a big win.
ATS pick: Oregon 31, Stanford 17 (confidence: 8)
Coughlin: When I'm asked who the best player in college football is, I never say Mariota. My reasoning is that he's lost both of his starts to Stanford, the best defense he's faced in each of the past two seasons. Keeping those losses in mind, I think there is plenty of motivation built up for the Oregon QB. When Mariota decided to return for this season, this is a game he circled on his calendar. Stanford players mocked the Ducks after last year's win when the Cardinal busted out the nerd glasses in the postgame news conference. This is Stanford's worst team under coach David Shaw, and I fully expect Mariota to play better than he has previously against Stanford. Take the Ducks at home in a revenge game.
ATS pick: Oregon 34, Stanford 17 (confidence: 8)
Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5) vs.
Auburn Tigers
Fallica: After a physical and emotional loss last week at LSU, the Rebels need to realize they still control their own destiny to reach the SEC title game. But that's easier said than done. How confident is
Bo Wallace coming off his worst game of the year? The short-handed Rebels also must face the most explosive offense they have faced to date. Auburn's rushing attack again looked potent last week, meaning the Landshark D will have its work cut out for it coming off its worst defensive game of the year, in which it allowed 264 rush yards on nearly five yards a carry. Ole Miss has been a great story, but it will be Auburn that emerges with a win.
ATS pick: Auburn 28, Ole Miss 17 (confidence: 8)
Coughlin: Some seem to think this is the first elimination game of the season, as we have No. 3 vs. No. 4 according to the committee. I just trust Auburn more in this spot, as I was very disappointed in the way Wallace acted and played last week. After he threw a game-ending interception against LSU, he walked off the field before the game ended and did not shake hands. With that, I'm not sure what to expect from this Ole Miss offense. It looked really bad last week, and if Wallace is not able to make throws like he did in the win against Alabama, I don't see Ole Miss being able to score enough to win. A lot of people are making a big deal about Auburn's close win vs. South Carolina last week, but maybe the Tigers were looking ahead to this game.
ATS pick: Auburn 24, Ole Miss 19 (confidence: 3)
TCU Horned Frogs (-5.5) at
West Virginia Mountaineers
Fallica: Don't look now, but the West Virginia defense has come to play the past two weeks, allowing just four TDs in 30 drives against Baylor and Oklahoma State. A big reason why is third downs. WVU held those two teams to 5-of-31 on third down (16 percent). On the other hand, TCU has yet to be stopped this year, as its season low for yards per play is 5.5 vs. Baylor. Until they are stopped, it's hard to pick against the Horned Frogs, who just might be the best one-loss team in the nation (third in ESPN Game Control metric). Weather could be a big factor Saturday, so this one might be lower scoring than you think.
ATS pick: TCU 37,
West Virginia 36 (confidence: 6)
Coughlin: There aren't many teams playing better than these two Big 12 teams. Both teams' coaches (TCU's Gary Patterson and WVU's Dana Holgerson) are among my favorites in the nation. Now, the Mountaineers' defense seems to be improved, while the TCU offense seems like it might be the most balanced in the NCAA. This game should have a great atmosphere, as it's set to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET, which is a couple of hours after "College GameDay" signs off live from Morgantown, West Virginia. The past two games between these teams have gone to overtime, with the road team winning each time. I really think TCU is a top-four team and will cover ... barely.
ATS pick: TCU 41, West Virginia 35 (confidence: 4)
Temple Owls (+7) vs.
East Carolina Pirates
Fallica: Temple comes home after a couple of poor road showings, but there are a few reasons to like the Owls here. Their pass defense is decent (14th in defensive efficiency) and they have done a good job of limiting big plays (18th in 10-plus-yard plays allowed). Remember, last year the Owls nearly knocked off eventual Fiesta Bowl champ UCF in Philadelphia. This one will be closer than you think.
ATS pick: East Carolina 34,
Temple 31 (confidence: 7)
Purdue Boilermakers (+23.5) at
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Fallica: Don't look now, but the Boilermakers have put up 36 PPG in their past three, nearly won at Minnesota and hung around with Michigan State for a long time. With Wisconsin on deck following an idle week, this could be a spot where Nebraska is caught looking ahead and the Boilers stay within the huge number.
ATS pick: Nebraska 42,
Purdue 27 (confidence: 4)
Florida State Seminoles (-3.5) at
Louisville Cardinals
Over/under: 50.5
Coughlin: All expectations for this game seem to surround the same thought: This is the last true test in the regular season for the Noles. I anticipate a crazy Thursday night game, as Louisville will be rocking -- especially with Halloween the next day. The Cardinals come in with the nation's fourth-best scoring defense, averaging 14.6 points per game allowed, while FSU comes into the game outside of the top tier in any statistical category on either side of the ball. The Noles are 104th in the country in rushing yards a game and also rank outside the top 40 in rush defense. But, as I mentioned before, I think you'll see turnovers, big punt returns and kick returns, and all those things that come in a wild game. That lends itself to high scoring.
Pick: Take the over. (confidence: 3)
Kansas State Wildcats (-14) vs.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Coughlin: People like to minimize what Kansas State has accomplished this year by pointing out it blew the game against Auburn and was lucky to beat Oklahoma, but you can't deny the Wildcats are in position to win a Power 5 conference. On the other side of the field, I see a team in the Cowboys that's starting to resemble last year's squad. This game just looks like it features two teams going in opposite directions, so I'll take the home team that has something to play for over the team on the decline.
ATS pick: Kansas State 31, Oklahoma State 14 (confidence: 5)
Season records
Fallica: 24-18 ATS (57.1 percent)
Last week: 2-3
Coughlin: 30-14-1 (66.7 percent)
Last week: 3-2