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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

Since week 17 in 2012 the Ravens are 1-5 SU and ATS on the road in divisional matchups. The lone win was in Cleveland back in week three:

ChainsawU said:
The Ravens barely won that week-three game in the last minute with a field-goal drive in the two-minute drill in the fourth quarter. Cleveland kept that game close despite missing a field-goal, having a field-goal blocked, committing 12 penalties, and having their dude fall down on a play that would have been an easy TD. Cleveland should have beat the Ravens in week three.
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The Ravens have won four out of the 12 road games they've played since last season. Ben is 8-2 SU at home versus the Ravens in his career.

 
ChainsawU said:
Since week 17 in 2012 the Ravens are 1-5 SU and ATS on the road in divisional matchups. The lone win was in Cleveland back in week three:

ChainsawU said:
The Ravens barely won that week-three game in the last minute with a field-goal drive in the two-minute drill in the fourth quarter. Cleveland kept that game close despite missing a field-goal, having a field-goal blocked, committing 12 penalties, and having their dude fall down on a play that would have been an easy TD. Cleveland should have beat the Ravens in week three.
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The Ravens have won four out of the 12 road games they've played since last season. Ben is 8-2 SU at home versus the Ravens in his career.
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Pittsburgh ML?

 
Stupid Harbaugh I hate them both, just need Flacco to get crushed to make him look like a bigger moron

 
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Updated trends and stuff

5 yr bet %

AVG RB W L %Rushing Over 41 43 49%Rushing Under 94 40 70%Receptions Over 26 29 47%Receptions under 8 1 89%Receiving Over 0 2 0%Receiving under 4 5 44%Rush+Rec Over 5 8 38%Rush+Rec Under 12 12 50%WR W L %Receptions Over 174 156 53%Receptions under 75 49 60%Receiving Over 52 45 54%Receiving Under 53 51 51%QB W L %Passing over 32 17 65%Passing under 67 61 52%Completions over 64 38 63%Completions under 83 38 69%Rushing over 2 2 50%Rushing under 5 4 56%TE W L %Receiving Over 5 12 29%Receiving Under 30 15 67%Receptions Over 52 43 55%Receptions under 31 15 67%5 yr trends

Code: 
Avg		RB		Under	Over	% underRushing		139	80	63%Rush+Rec		20	15	57%Receptions		38	27	58%Receiving		8	5	62%WR		Receiving		97	99	49%Receptions		234	219	52%QB		Passing		84	94	47%Completions		122	101	55%Rushing		7	7	50%TE		Receiving		42	20	68%Receptions		71	65	52%
 
link

Giants o23 -129
Colts/Giants o51 +102

All week I was looking for the angle that people would want to use to take the Giants. I did not realize until just now they were coming off the bye. It makes sense now that some dudes would say, "Take a Tom Coughlin-coached team after the bye week." The dude is 6-0 SU the last six years coming out of the bye. link

That makes me a little more leary of taking the Giants ML. And then you have this: During the last four years, home teams coming off a bye lined ≥ -2½ are only 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS. Even though it does make sense that they would line the game this way since Luck is so popular. Regardless, I'm going with the totals based on the 6-0 O/U trend that games have played to the last six times that Luck has seen the opposing team for the first time, and the 32-46 points per game those six teams averaged against the Colts.

 
ChainsawU said:
link

Giants o23 -129

Colts/Giants o51 +102

All week I was looking for the angle that people would want to use to take the Giants. I did not realize until just now they were coming off the bye. It makes sense now that some dudes would say, "Take a Tom Coughlin-coached team after the bye week." The dude is 6-0 SU the last six years coming out of the bye. link

That makes me a little more leary of taking the Giants ML. And then you have this: During the last four years, home teams coming off a bye lined ≥ -2½ are only 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS. Even though it does make sense that they would line the game this way since Luck is so popular. Regardless, I'm going with the totals based on the 6-0 O/U trend that games have played to the last six times that Luck has seen the opposing team for the first time, and the 32-46 points per game those six teams averaged against the Colts.
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I am in a 30 person vegas contest thing, and 18 of them picked Indy, I was only one on NYG..

 
A rare losing Saturday for Vegas.

Oregon covering the 7.5-point spread in its win over Stanford contributed to a losing day at the Stratosphere. "We probably won more games than we lost, but Oregon and over and Auburn seemed to be on every ticket," Hugh Citron, Stratosphere sports book supervisor, said.

 
The Bengals are 12-1-1 SU and 11-3 ATS at home since last season. The O/U went 9-5 in those games. And then you have the totals of 49 or less on #TNF going 18-3 to the over since last season. That Bengals' home record surprised the hell out of me though.

Browns/Bengals o44 -110

 
In Tom Coughlin's L6 years coming out of the bye the Giants are 6-0 SU. In four of those six games the Giants led by double digits at halftime. In 2011 and 2013 they trailed at halftime by 3 and 4 points, respectively.

Giants 1H +3½ 145/100

IND wins 1st half & loses game 100/950

 
Hammered the over on Jerrell Freeman (6.5) at 5dimes. It's now -150 unfortunately, but still not a bad get. Bovada has him o7 at -115 still.

Giants stat crew is most favorable in the league for tackles per opportunity, D'Qwell Jackson has a toe issue, no LaRon Landry yet and the Giants offense shouldn't be entirely shut down at home.

Waiting to see what the pregame notes from NYG beat writers have to say about Jameel McClain. Was a suggestion he may move back outside (with Devon Kennard at MLB) coming out of the bye. If that's not the case in pregame, his over will be a very solid bet, too.

 
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I played these tackle props tonight. I think all were at 5d or sportsbetting.

2u Freeman O6.5 (-130)

.75u D.Jackson O8.0 (-105)

.75u McClain O7.5 (-120)

.6u J. Pierre-Paul O4.5 (-115)

.5u Rolle O6.0 (-105)

Giants crew is awesome for overs. My numbers show them handing out 433 tackles on 317 opportunities this year (1.37 tackles/opp).

 
Question - I have a futures wager on the # of total wins for a college football team (Nebraska over 8). At what point can an "over" total wins wager be cashed in Vegas? After the 9th win (in this case) even if there are games remaining on the schedule? Or after the regular season end even if they hit the total before season end? TIA.

 
soothsayer said:
Question - I have a futures wager on the # of total wins for a college football team (Nebraska over 8). At what point can an "over" total wins wager be cashed in Vegas? After the 9th win (in this case) even if there are games remaining on the schedule? Or after the regular season end even if they hit the total before season end? TIA.
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not until end of season, there should be an event date on the ticket, thats when you can cash it, probably like Dec 4th or something.

 
ArbyMelt said:
soothsayer said:
Question - I have a futures wager on the # of total wins for a college football team (Nebraska over 8). At what point can an "over" total wins wager be cashed in Vegas? After the 9th win (in this case) even if there are games remaining on the schedule? Or after the regular season end even if they hit the total before season end? TIA.
Click to expand...
not until end of season, there should be an event date on the ticket, thats when you can cash it, probably like Dec 4th or something.
Click to expand...
Thank you.

 
soothsayer said:
ArbyMelt said:
soothsayer said:
Question - I have a futures wager on the # of total wins for a college football team (Nebraska over 8). At what point can an "over" total wins wager be cashed in Vegas? After the 9th win (in this case) even if there are games remaining on the schedule? Or after the regular season end even if they hit the total before season end? TIA.
Click to expand...
not until end of season, there should be an event date on the ticket, thats when you can cash it, probably like Dec 4th or something.
Click to expand...
Thank you.
Click to expand...
I have had some luck contacting customer service and telling them the bet is a winner and they need to grade it. It's worth a shot, all they can say is no, wait until the season is over.

 
Forgot COD came out today. I'm about to be a lot less productive. I am "teleworking" tomorrow cause I'm getting a energy audit done so I should be get lots of work done tomorrow :)

 
Billy Bats said:
swirvenirvin said:
Donnell over 3.5 -150
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Big swing, when I checked my site earlier I had O 4.5 -130, it's now down to O 4.5 +105. Jump on it?
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you cant get a 4 out there at all? Almost every site I saw had either the 3.5 or 4.

TE's have done very good very IND per the stats below.

Code: 
 Julius Thomas	DEN	1	L 24-31 (a)	8	7	104	3	28.4 Virgil Green	DEN	1	L 24-31 (a)	1	1	8	0	0.8 Zach Ertz	PHI	2	L 27-30 (h)	6	4	86	0	8.6 Brent Celek	PHI	2	L 27-30 (h)	1	0	0	0	0.0 Marcel Jensen	JAC	3	W 44-17 (a)	1	1	8	0	0.8 Mickey Shuler	JAC	3	W 44-17 (a)	1	0	0	0	0.0 Delanie Walker	TEN	4	W 41-17 (h)	7	5	84	1	14.4 Owen Daniels	BAL	5	W 20-13 (h)	7	5	70	0	7.0 C.J. Fiedorow	HOU	6	W 33-28 (a)	1	1	7	0	0.7 Garrett Graham	HOU	6	W 33-28 (a)	1	0	0	0	0.0 Jermaine Gresh	CIN	7	W 27-0 (h)	12	10	48	0	4.8 Heath Miller	PIT	8	L 34-51 (a)	8	7	112	1	17.2
 
TheGooRoo said:
soothsayer said:
ArbyMelt said:
soothsayer said:
Question - I have a futures wager on the # of total wins for a college football team (Nebraska over 8). At what point can an "over" total wins wager be cashed in Vegas? After the 9th win (in this case) even if there are games remaining on the schedule? Or after the regular season end even if they hit the total before season end? TIA.
Click to expand...
not until end of season, there should be an event date on the ticket, thats when you can cash it, probably like Dec 4th or something.
Click to expand...
Thank you.
Click to expand...
I have had some luck contacting customer service and telling them the bet is a winner and they need to grade it. It's worth a shot, all they can say is no, wait until the season is over.
Click to expand...
I've asked support to grade some as losers before, even though I guess there was a chance that it could cash. I just got sick of looking at it in my pending wagers. #ThanksALotManU

 
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