FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

[comfortably numb]

Messi Neymar Suarez on a line? oof

El murderitos row?

Nibbled on the over in that one. I am clueless.

During our 40some hours in the car Mrs Nugs forced us to stop in Paterson to thrift shop. Easily paid for all of our gas during that 30 minute stop. You're missing out hombre. Just gotta leave the mancard in the parking lot.

Awesome!

I think i went to that one once.

Even if I did do anything i can't get a paypal account anymore

:wadeboggs:

ManCity -1.5

Porto +155

Bate/Shakatar o3

Schalke +1/2

 

[comfortably numb]

I thought Neymar was dead. He recovered already?

Looking at your offer in RD.

Just making sure no a bigger deal I have him in doesn't go down

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Messi Neymar Suarez on a line? oof

El murderitos row?

Possibly, but they've only played a couple games together. It's going to take some time. Iniesta's still out too.

 

[ChainsawU]

Since 2003 home team in revenge spot after losing to a team in the playoffs their previous meeting: 41-37 (.526) SU, 35-42-1 (.455) ATS, 27-49-2 (.355) O/U. Same situation as the home favorite: 27-23 (.540) SU, 17-32-1 (.347; avg line -5.0) ATS, 16-32-2 (.333) O/U. And 9-4 SU and 2-10-1 ATS in that situation as the home favorite since 2011. Looks like I'll be joining GPJ on the Pacers, adding the under in that game, and also playing the Clippers ATS.

Pacers +9½ -101

Under 187½ -107

Clippers +4½ -108

 

[hagmania]

I've never played the football contests at FanDuel, believe it or not. I can't win at regular gambling, but I do know just about every skill-position player in the NFL inside and out. But there are SO many damn things to play there.... it's kind of overwhelming. Any suggestions for which contest a first-timer should try his hand at?

Just starting out I'd recommend 50/50s and maybe a couple longshot tourneys. But mostly 50/50s.

 

[The Ref]

I know Richard about basketball, but apparently this Haralabob is kind of a big deal...

Haralabob just being interviewed live on Lebatard radio show. He never really will give picks, but they stayed on him and he finally said he's betting Golden State tonight at home against Clippers.

GS -5

(The scary thing is you can get this at 4.5, and saw likes the other side)

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I know Richard about basketball, but apparently this Haralabob is kind of a big deal...

Haralabob just being interviewed live on Lebatard radio show. He never really will give picks, but they stayed on him and he finally said he's betting Golden State tonight at home against Clippers.

GS -5

(The scary thing is you can get this at 4.5, and saw likes the other side)

There's been a lot written about him. He made a big futures bet on the Lakers around 2000 with the 50k he saved from skycapping, took that money and became a full-time gambler, beat NBA lines pretty easily by picking off some coaching 1H/2H trends, books adjusted, has since built some massively involved computer models to try and beat the lines. He obviously has a tough time getting down, and also watches almost every NBA game. Also has done some consulting work with NBA front offices (I think the Rockets and Sixers at different points?) but has never had an official full-time front office gig, for obvious reasons.

But yeah, I'm following him on -5. He'll occasionally post a play on Twitter during the playoffs, but more often than not he doesn't share anything.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I've never played the football contests at FanDuel, believe it or not. I can't win at regular gambling, but I do know just about every skill-position player in the NFL inside and out. But there are SO many damn things to play there.... it's kind of overwhelming. Any suggestions for which contest a first-timer should try his hand at?

I like the double ups where top 50% ...well...double up. I haven't played this year though.

This.. Have to play 50/50. Ive done 5 weeks this year and have won the $20 league fee thing 4 out of 5. I think super programmers or something the head to head sttuff. I'm keeping it at $20 for now, not sure how much sharper to gets after $20, but you can always do more $20- $50 ones if you want to do more.. 50/50 are easier cause you have some dumb people in there. Like last week there were really only 4 rb's that should have been on people rosters that were value plays. Jeremy Hill at 4k, Rainey at around 4.5, Mccoy at 5, and Hillman in the mid to high 4's too. Yet when I looked at people's rosters you have people like Gore and Andre Williams in there for 6-7k who dont catch any passes.

 

[ArbyMelt]

I've never played the football contests at FanDuel, believe it or not. I can't win at regular gambling, but I do know just about every skill-position player in the NFL inside and out. But there are SO many damn things to play there.... it's kind of overwhelming. Any suggestions for which contest a first-timer should try his hand at?

I like the double ups where top 50% ...well...double up. I haven't played this year though.

This.. Have to play 50/50. Ive done 5 weeks this year and have won the $20 league fee thing 4 out of 5. I think super programmers or something the head to head sttuff. I'm keeping it at $20 for now, not sure how much sharper to gets after $20, but you can always do more $20- $50 ones if you want to do more.. 50/50 are easier cause you have some dumb people in there. Like last week there were really only 4 rb's that should have been on people rosters that were value plays. Jeremy Hill at 4k, Rainey at around 4.5, Mccoy at 5, and Hillman in the mid to high 4's too. Yet when I looked at people's rosters you have people like Gore and Andre Williams in there for 6-7k who dont catch any passes.

I do fanduel every week and use the "On the Daily" variations from the FBG subscriber page. I've made money every week so far. Easy money, zero work, FBG does it for you.

I do 50/50's and use 3-4 different lineups across hundreds of entries ($5-$10).

 

[swirvenirvin]

This sure is tempting.. Going against the worst CB in the league.


WEEK 10 SPECIAL - Will Jeremy Maclin record 150 or more Receiving Yards and score 2 or more TD's Week 10?
Must start for action.

11:00p​

Yes

+1500​

 

[swirvenirvin]

I've never played the football contests at FanDuel, believe it or not. I can't win at regular gambling, but I do know just about every skill-position player in the NFL inside and out. But there are SO many damn things to play there.... it's kind of overwhelming. Any suggestions for which contest a first-timer should try his hand at?

I like the double ups where top 50% ...well...double up. I haven't played this year though.

This.. Have to play 50/50. Ive done 5 weeks this year and have won the $20 league fee thing 4 out of 5. I think super programmers or something the head to head sttuff. I'm keeping it at $20 for now, not sure how much sharper to gets after $20, but you can always do more $20- $50 ones if you want to do more.. 50/50 are easier cause you have some dumb people in there. Like last week there were really only 4 rb's that should have been on people rosters that were value plays. Jeremy Hill at 4k, Rainey at around 4.5, Mccoy at 5, and Hillman in the mid to high 4's too. Yet when I looked at people's rosters you have people like Gore and Andre Williams in there for 6-7k who dont catch any passes.

I do fanduel every week and use the "On the Daily" variations from the FBG subscriber page. I've made money every week so far. Easy money, zero work, FBG does it for you.

I do 50/50's and use 3-4 different lineups across hundreds of entries ($5-$10).

So they give you like 3-4 qb's to use, 4-5 rb's 4-5 wr's etc to choose from? And you are doing like $1000 in total on these per week? How much have you been raking in on avg?

 

[hagmania]

I've never played the football contests at FanDuel, believe it or not. I can't win at regular gambling, but I do know just about every skill-position player in the NFL inside and out. But there are SO many damn things to play there.... it's kind of overwhelming. Any suggestions for which contest a first-timer should try his hand at?

I like the double ups where top 50% ...well...double up. I haven't played this year though.

This.. Have to play 50/50. Ive done 5 weeks this year and have won the $20 league fee thing 4 out of 5. I think super programmers or something the head to head sttuff. I'm keeping it at $20 for now, not sure how much sharper to gets after $20, but you can always do more $20- $50 ones if you want to do more.. 50/50 are easier cause you have some dumb people in there. Like last week there were really only 4 rb's that should have been on people rosters that were value plays. Jeremy Hill at 4k, Rainey at around 4.5, Mccoy at 5, and Hillman in the mid to high 4's too. Yet when I looked at people's rosters you have people like Gore and Andre Williams in there for 6-7k who dont catch any passes.

I do fanduel every week and use the "On the Daily" variations from the FBG subscriber page. I've made money every week so far. Easy money, zero work, FBG does it for you.

I do 50/50's and use 3-4 different lineups across hundreds of entries ($5-$10).

So they give you like 3-4 qb's to use, 4-5 rb's 4-5 wr's etc to choose from? And you are doing like $1000 in total on these per week? How much have you been raking in on avg?

Last year Dodds' projections optimized to Fanduel salaries were unreal in cash games. I haven't tracked it this year.

 

[jamil]

I've never played the football contests at FanDuel, believe it or not. I can't win at regular gambling, but I do know just about every skill-position player in the NFL inside and out. But there are SO many damn things to play there.... it's kind of overwhelming. Any suggestions for which contest a first-timer should try his hand at?

I like the double ups where top 50% ...well...double up. I haven't played this year though.

This.. Have to play 50/50. Ive done 5 weeks this year and have won the $20 league fee thing 4 out of 5. I think super programmers or something the head to head sttuff. I'm keeping it at $20 for now, not sure how much sharper to gets after $20, but you can always do more $20- $50 ones if you want to do more.. 50/50 are easier cause you have some dumb people in there. Like last week there were really only 4 rb's that should have been on people rosters that were value plays. Jeremy Hill at 4k, Rainey at around 4.5, Mccoy at 5, and Hillman in the mid to high 4's too. Yet when I looked at people's rosters you have people like Gore and Andre Williams in there for 6-7k who dont catch any passes.

I do fanduel every week and use the "On the Daily" variations from the FBG subscriber page. I've made money every week so far. Easy money, zero work, FBG does it for you. I do 50/50's and use 3-4 different lineups across hundreds of entries ($5-$10).

So they give you like 3-4 qb's to use, 4-5 rb's 4-5 wr's etc to choose from? And you are doing like $1000 in total on these per week? How much have you been raking in on avg?

Last year Dodds' projections optimized to Fanduel salaries were unreal in cash games. I haven't tracked it this year.

How do you do that

 

[hagmania]

Last year Dodds' projections optimized to Fanduel salaries were unreal in cash games. I haven't tracked it this year.

How do you do that

I just run Solver via Excel. I should still have a file somewhere.

 

[ChainsawU]

Haralabob just being interviewed live on Lebatard radio show. He never really will give picks, but they stayed on him and he finally said he's betting Golden State tonight at home against Clippers.

"Do you have anything I can parlay that with?"

 

[ArbyMelt]

I've never played the football contests at FanDuel, believe it or not. I can't win at regular gambling, but I do know just about every skill-position player in the NFL inside and out. But there are SO many damn things to play there.... it's kind of overwhelming. Any suggestions for which contest a first-timer should try his hand at?

I like the double ups where top 50% ...well...double up. I haven't played this year though.

This.. Have to play 50/50. Ive done 5 weeks this year and have won the $20 league fee thing 4 out of 5. I think super programmers or something the head to head sttuff. I'm keeping it at $20 for now, not sure how much sharper to gets after $20, but you can always do more $20- $50 ones if you want to do more.. 50/50 are easier cause you have some dumb people in there. Like last week there were really only 4 rb's that should have been on people rosters that were value plays. Jeremy Hill at 4k, Rainey at around 4.5, Mccoy at 5, and Hillman in the mid to high 4's too. Yet when I looked at people's rosters you have people like Gore and Andre Williams in there for 6-7k who dont catch any passes.

I do fanduel every week and use the "On the Daily" variations from the FBG subscriber page. I've made money every week so far. Easy money, zero work, FBG does it for you.

I do 50/50's and use 3-4 different lineups across hundreds of entries ($5-$10).

So they give you like 3-4 qb's to use, 4-5 rb's 4-5 wr's etc to choose from? And you are doing like $1000 in total on these per week? How much have you been raking in on avg?

Check out the subscriber page, and under DAILY GAMES, you will see "On the Daily - Tremblay" and "FanDuel Variations - Tremblay

With "On the Daily" it uses Dodds, Bloom, Tremblay projections and finds optimal lineup, or you can do the Average. You can filter to early games as well (and join those contests).

Then on the "Fan Duel Variations", you can rotate any player out, and it will find the best lineup without that player.

Its pretty slick. Like I said, it finds the best values for you. I prefer 3-4 diff lineups just in case a few players falter or get injured.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Wahlberg's remaking The Gambler. Dunno how I feel about this.

Supporting cast is good, anyway.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Toback has not blessed this. I don't know if I can pay for it in good conscience.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Several ATS favorites coming off byes offer betting value in Week 10.
Most weeks, we turn to contrarian strategies in order to find undervalued teams and profitable wagering opportunities within the NFL betting market. There are also a handful of successful systems we've used in the past that don't necessarily fit under the contrarian betting umbrella, but instead focus on answering "real-world questions." I've touched on this a bit over the course of the season, but many of the best betting systems are not found while specifically researching for new strategies, but instead are derived from simply asking questions regarding general, high-level concepts.

Insider PickCenterWondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter

For example, NFL analysts and fantasy football experts consistently reference the performance of teams and players coming off bye weeks and the expectation that extra rest is beneficial. However, rarely is this concept supported with statistics or facts.

As a result, I turned to our Bet Labs software to determine how bye weeks have historically affected against-the-spread (ATS) results. While performing this research, I developed an NFL betting system with a 60.1 percent ATS win rate (since 2003) and three plays for this week's games.

I started with the theory that teams getting an extra week to regroup, rest and prepare for their upcoming opponent will outperform expectations, resulting in profitable ATS records.

The table below summarizes the results:

Regular-season ATS record of NFL teams coming off a bye, since 2003 Teams ATS Record Units Won ROI All teams 171-144 (54.3 percent) +17.87 units +5.7 percent * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS records, units won and ROI above.
** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system has won or lost after factoring in the vig. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $1,787 ($100 x 17.87 units) following the system.
*** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from a sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment.

Note: For the purposes of the analysis above, I removed duplicate matches from our system results. For example, if two teams coming off byes play each other, the result of that game is not included in our system record since it will always produce a 1-1 ATS record.

With all teams coming off byes producing a solid 54.3 percent ATS win rate, I then compared the performance of underdogs and favorites and determined that focusing solely on favorites improves the ATS win rate of our system to 60.1 percent.

The following table breaks down these results:

Regular-season ATS record of NFL teams coming off a bye, since 2003 Teams ATS Record Units Won ROI Underdogs 75-88 (46.0 percent) -17.23 units -10.6 percent Favorites 116-77 (60.1 percent) +33.68 units +17.4 percent

​

Why does this work?As shown in the analysis above, there seems to be a clear correlation between bye weeks and profitable ATS performance. In this instance, the simplest reasoning seems to be the best. In a violent game like professional football, giving players an off week to rest and coaches more time to game plan allows these teams to outperform expectations.

Furthermore, there is a major difference in ATS performance when separating favorites from underdogs. It's reasonable to assume that the favored team is expected to be better than its opponent in that matchup. Superior teams are comprised of more talented players and effective coaches, which potentially leads to even better ATS performance when given extra time to prepare.

​

Week 10 system matchesNote: All odds info courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Hotel.

Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins

Not only does this game fit our Week 10 betting system, but it also offers the potential for contrarian betting value following Miami's beatdown of San Diego. At the time of publication, the spread betting percentages are split relatively evenly and the Dolphins' performance last week should keep them reasonably balanced throughout the week.

We'll go ahead and lay the points with Detroit as our first play of the week.

Atlanta Falcons (-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has appeared frequently in our column so far this season, but this week we're turning the tables and taking the Falcons as small road favorites. For the record, this is a huge public play, with Atlanta currently receiving 90 percent of all spread action, but we'll rely on the analysis above and take a rested Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. to basically win this game straight up.

Please note that while the lines referenced in weekly "system matches" reflect point spreads posted at Westgate Las Vegas Hotel, there are still plenty of offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks offering this game as a pick. We'll use the Westgate's minus-1 when grading this play but encourage all readers to visit ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page to shop for the best line before taking this or any other side.

Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Chicago Bears

This matchup differs from our first two plays in that both Green Bay and Chicago are coming off bye weeks. In our analysis, we highlighted the difference in ATS records between favorites and underdogs, which is why the Packers fit this system.

Out of curiosity, I dug deeper to determine ATS results when both teams in a single matchup are coming off byes. While the sample is small, favorites in these scenarios are 15-6 (71.4 percent) ATS since 2003, giving us the confidence to lay a touchdown with the Packers in this game.

 

[swirvenirvin]

About Sports Insights

Sports Insights monitors all the forces that affect betting line movement - sharp action, public betting activity and injury and weather reports. Members receive our analysis and predictions in the form of Best Bet picks while also having the ability to instantly analyze over 10 years of archived betting data to build their own winning data-driven betting systems. LEARN MORE

SportsInsights.com Best Bet Results Since 2010 Last Season Current Season NFL 175-143 = 55% 44-36 = 55% 24-19 = 55% NCAAF 248-205 = 54% 53-38 = 58% 52-38 = 57%

 

[Raider Nation]

I know Richard about basketball, but apparently this Haralabob is kind of a big deal...

Haralabob just being interviewed live on Lebatard radio show. He never really will give picks, but they stayed on him and he finally said he's betting Golden State tonight at home against Clippers.

GS -5

(The scary thing is you can get this at 4.5, and saw likes the other side)

There's been a lot written about him. He made a big futures bet on the Lakers around 2000 with the 50k he saved from skycapping, took that money and became a full-time gambler, beat NBA lines pretty easily by picking off some coaching 1H/2H trends, books adjusted, has since built some massively involved computer models to try and beat the lines. He obviously has a tough time getting down, and also watches almost every NBA game. Also has done some consulting work with NBA front offices (I think the Rockets and Sixers at different points?) but has never had an official full-time front office gig, for obvious reasons.

But yeah, I'm following him on -5. He'll occasionally post a play on Twitter during the playoffs, but more often than not he doesn't share anything.

Why does he not have a stable of full-time runners on his payroll, Billy Walters-style? You spread out 30 guys all over Vegas, having them rotate the casinos they hit nightly... kind of easy to stay under the radar, no? Even if each of them are only putting $4 or $5k across the windows every night, that adds up.

 

[Raider Nation]

NIU KICKER!!!

 

[The Ref]

What happened to the MAC this year? These teams stink.

 

[Clorox]

I've never played the football contests at FanDuel, believe it or not. I can't win at regular gambling, but I do know just about every skill-position player in the NFL inside and out. But there are SO many damn things to play there.... it's kind of overwhelming. Any suggestions for which contest a first-timer should try his hand at?

Just starting out I'd recommend 50/50s and maybe a couple longshot tourneys. But mostly 50/50s.

This is what I do. Doesn't seem too hard. Read Dodds' blog, use Tremblay's value app thingy, and tap into your knowledge =

 

[got_nugs]

OK it's official. I like Shabaddazzz Napier. Really glad the Heat drafted him.

 

[Frostillicus]

OK it's official. I like Shabaddazzz Napier. Really glad the Heat drafted him.

I think you misspelled his name.

 

[got_nugs]

OK it's official. I like Shabaddazzz Napier. Really glad the Heat drafted him.

I think you misspelled his name.

I went back and forth on that. Napeir didn't look right so I went the other way.

 

[got_nugs]

Celtics overs, wheeeee

 

[Raider Nation]

Possibly (probably) a stupid question:

I found a car I like from a private seller who is about 200 miles away. If none of my lazy buddies feel like taking the drive with me, how do I get both cars back home?

 

[Plorfu]

Possibly (probably) a stupid question:

I found a car I like from a private seller who is about 200 miles away. If none of my lazy buddies feel like taking the drive with me, how do I get both cars back home?

First, cross the river with just the goose, then return for the fox.

 

[mquinnjr]

Possibly (probably) a stupid question:

I found a car I like from a private seller who is about 200 miles away. If none of my lazy buddies feel like taking the drive with me, how do I get both cars back home?

First thought off the top of my head, get a quote from Uber and see what a one-way trip would cost. Tell the seller the cost, and see if he'll work it into the deal/eat that cost to make the deal happen.

ETA: Just did my address to a random business 204 miles away, $642-723 one way Uber black car. Tell the guy to eat some/all of that, and you're in. Or, get a quote from a black car limo service and see if it's cheaper and if the seller will negotiate to make it happen.

BOL

 

[Tiger Fan]

Possibly (probably) a stupid question:

I found a car I like from a private seller who is about 200 miles away. If none of my lazy buddies feel like taking the drive with me, how do I get both cars back home?

Uber?

 

[got_nugs]

Hey, I got a great idea guys, huddle up! 6 seconds left...game tied. Lets have Paul Pierce hoist a pump fake three at the buzzer although an athletic Wall drive and shoot or dish makes loads more sense.

Ready? We are them Wiz on 3. 1, 2, 3 THEM WIZ! BREAK!

 

[swirvenirvin]

I mean I like RB rushing unders, but man does the Browns rushing defense blows. Hill might be posted in the mid 80's tomorrow

 

[Tiger Fan]

Good lord buffalo is an awful CFB team

 

[Raider Nation]

Pacers +9.5.

I'm much more excited about that number than that team.

Please tell me this is not going to lose in OT.

 

[Raider Nation]

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Beauty.

 

[Raider Nation]

I can't believe Hibbert didn't drain that 3!!!

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Good lord buffalo is an awful CFB team

I think that's why they fired their coach a few weeks ago

 

[facook]

MAC overs. :guntohead:

 

[TheGooRoo]

I mean I like RB rushing unders, but man does the Browns rushing defense blows. Hill might be posted in the mid 80's tomorrow

Should be 83.5 - 87.5

 

[Good Posting Judge]

H-bob comin' thru so far.

 

[Raider Nation]

Ball State driving for the over. Fumble.

All MAC games go under.

 

[tjnc09]

H-bob comin' thru so far.

He just tweeted he's never giving out a pick again on the LeBatard Show

 

[Raider Nation]

I actually stopped following him a while back because he went months without giving out a single pick. And his First-World Problems ramblings weren't worth the follow.

 

[tjnc09]

I actually stopped following him a while back because he went months without giving out a single pick. And his First-World Problems ramblings weren't worth the follow.

Yeah, he really has no incentive to post his plays.

 

[Raider Nation]

Not that he owes us anything, certainly. Just pointing out that he's kind of boring otherwise.

 

[Frostillicus]

One of my favorite twitter follows.

 

[tjnc09]

I am going to be interested to see what the Cavs future prices are now to win the East.

When the big 3 came to Miami, they started out slowly at 9-8. Around end of November they rattled off 12 wins in a row and 21 of 22.

Understanding your team mates is a huge part of success in basketball - it's a big reason San Antonio is so good. Cleveland has too much talent to be bad and I think they need time together.

Chain, I hope you played your back to back games in Utah angle ...