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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

Funny scene at a shop that I'm in...a random bagpipe player is just going to town in a kilt and I'm pretty sure he's the only white person here, aside from the author. South fl is so weird man. I've missed it.

 
Since 2010 Wyoming is 14-14 SU and 10-17-1 ATS at home (avg line -2). As the underdog: 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS (avg line 13). Based on recent games it's easy to make this about 6-7 points with a total of 45-46 just based on what Wyoming has been scoring/allowing at home. I don't know what to think about last week's win at Fresno State, so I guess I'll fade it.

Since last season UTST is 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS in conference play (avg line -9). They're 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as the road favorite in those games (avg line -10). Last season Wyoming went to UTST. UTST shut them out for three quarters. Going into the fourth quarter the score was UTST 35 Wyoming 0 - and then Wyoming avoided the shut out with a touchdown. I want to bet on UTST to win SU tomorrow.

For tonight: Since 1997, teams are 20-10-2 to the over in their fifth game of the season after starting the year with four consecutive unders. Portland started the year with four consecutive unders. That's all I got. Just an action junkie parlay of the road favorite and buying points on an NBA total in primetime on the side everyone is already taking.

Mavericks/Trailblazers Over 206 -130

Utah State -270

106/151

 
PM best conference results for totals:

Code: 
                           Since 2011                                2014 Conference       Bet           W            L            %            W            L            %     ACC        Unders         34           11         75.56%          7            3         70.00%    PAC12        Overs         24           12         66.67%          2            1         66.67%  Big East      Unders         32           19         62.75%          4            5         44.44%     MW          Overs         22           12         64.71%          4            0         100.00%     SEC         Overs         61           37         62.24%         16           13         55.17%
 
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Since 2001, regular-season conference games with both teams coming off a bye (≥ 13 days rest) the home dog is 13-28 SU and 21-19-1 ATS (avg line 11). When you narrow those results down to 7>line>0, the home dog is 11-8 SU and ATS. And when you narrow those results down to 7>line≥3, the home team is 10-2 SU and ATS. So maybe LSU wins SU.

 
On Tuesday I got an e-mail from princess cruises for Florida residents. 48 hours later I'm at ft lauderdale port on my way to Cozumel for a 4 night cruise.

Good luck everyone this weekend!

 
ChainsawU said:
Since 2001, regular-season conference games with both teams coming off a bye (≥ 13 days rest) the home dog is 13-28 SU and 21-19-1 ATS (avg line 11). When you narrow those results down to 7>line>0, the home dog is 11-8 SU and ATS. And when you narrow those results down to 7>line≥3, the home team is 10-2 SU and ATS. So maybe LSU wins SU.
Click to expand...
:excited:

 
Andy Dalton has never lost as a home favorite against the AFC North in his career (6-0), and the Cincinnati Bengals have a huge opportunity to remain in the thick of the division title hunt with a win here. How big of an upset would it be if the Cleveland Browns were able to beat the Bengals in Cincinnati? Cleveland is 1-9 straight up in Cincinnati since 2004, losing by slightly less than a touchdown per contest.

Thursday's matchup will be particularly difficult for the Browns' defense on the ground. The Browns are tied for 30th in rushing yards per game (139.6) and are 29th in yards per rush (4.8). Meanwhile, the Bengals are ninth in rushing yards per game (121.6) and fourth in yards after contact per rush (1.95).

Of the Browns' eight games this season, they have allowed seven rushing touchdowns and 100 rushing yards in seven of them. Whether it is Giovani Bernard or Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati should give Cleveland fits in the running game.

In the past three seasons, Cincinnati has the sixth-best win percentage at home, with a record of 16-4-1. During the same span, Cleveland is 3-16 on the road, which is the second-worst road winning percentage in the NFL.

According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Bengals at a clip of 78 percent at the line of Cincinnati minus-6.

Let's look at analysis and an ATS pick on the game from our panel of wiseguys and some prop bet picks from John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information:

​
Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals Spread: Opened Cincinnati minus-6; now Cincinnati minus-6
Total: Opened 44.5; now 44.5

PicksDave Tuley says: "At the start of the season, not many people thought this Thursday night matchup could have playoff implications, but it sure does. However, I think Cleveland is still a few notches below Cincinnati and I don't feel like six points is enough for me to back the underdog here, especially as the Bengals are pretty good at protecting their home turf (though I did cash going against them with Carolina plus-7 and Jacksonville plus-11 last week). Instead, I'm looking to bet the under (44.5). The Browns were a strong 'over' team to start the season, but they've had four straight 'unders' and this should be a hard-hitting playoff-type battle with points at a premium (as long as the defenses don't score)."

Pick: Under 44.5.

Erin Rynning says: "Mike Pettine has done an excellent job in his first year as head coach of the Browns, positioning them with a 5-3 record. The offense started the campaign as the surprise of the league under the new direction of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, averaging nearly 27 points per game in their first five games. However, during their win over Pittsburgh on Oct. 12 they lost starting center Alex Mack. He was the leader of the offensive line, making the line calls and identifying the opposition's fronts. They've taken a huge step back offensively since his injury, and note that they've played Tampa Bay, Oakland and Jacksonville the past three weeks; not exactly the '85 Bears. This Bengals defense will provide a much stiffer challenge. However, the Bengals' defense is currently on shaky ground, while allowing a troubling 30.8 points per game since the debacle against New England. In addition, the Bengals will be without linebacker Vontaze Burfict, and most likely, cornerback Leon Hall. There's just no value on the side or total for this Thursday tilt. Pass."

Pick: Pass.

Maddux Sports says: "For the season, my model favors Cincinnati by four points, but Cleveland has looked much worse since the loss of Mack. Being outgained 4.8 yards per play to 5.3 yards per play against three dregs of the league like Jacksonville, Oakland, and Tampa Bay is really troubling. The Browns' running game has been putrid, averaging fewer than two yards per carry in those games. The Bengals have played well at home, but this is still a team I don't trust laying more than a field goal. Both of these teams have been on my go-against list for the past few weeks. Based on that, it is unfortunate that they are matching up on Thursday. I wont be involved in this one, and really don't have much of an opinion side-wise."

ATS pick: Pass.

Wunderdog says: "Record-wise, these two teams are pretty close. But, the reality is that Cincinnati is simply the better team. The Browns own a surprising 5-3 record, but much of that comes courtesy of a soft schedule and a plus-7 turnover differential (fourth best in the league). If we look at yards per play, this team is mediocre on offense and below average on defense. They have had the distinct advantage of playing the three worst teams in the league thus far: Oakland, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, and they actually lost to the Jags. Cincinnati started the season 3-0 and were the talk of the town, then the Bengals ran into the buzz saw that is the New England Patriots. After that, they tied Carolina and lost to Indy, leaving them at 3-2-1. But, they could have (should have) beaten Carolina, and if they did the Bengals would be sitting at 6-2 with their losses coming to two very good teams in New England and Indy."

"In the end, this team remains a bit underrated and is still very good -- better than its cross-state rivals. The Bengals just don't lose in this building. They are 12-1 here since last season, including 4-0 this season, putting up 30.8 points per game. During the past three seasons, Cincinnati is 8-1 SU versus teams like Cleveland that allow 375-plus yards per game. In fact, in the Marvin Lewis era at home, this team is 16-2 SU versus these bad defenses. While the game may end up being close -- making an ATS play questionable -- I really like the home team to win this one, so take them on the money line."

Pick: Bengals (minus-260)

Prop bets Total points by the Browns: 19.0 at Bengals (O/U -110)Playing without their most important offensive player has really hurt the Browns this year. No, not Josh Gordon. Cleveland's offense has really missed Mack the past three weeks, averaging 17.0 points per game against the Jaguars', Raiders' and Buccaneers' defenses.

{C}

Cleveland Browns Rushing This SeasonWith, without Alex Mack

Stat With Without Yds per rush 4.41 2.59 YBC per rush* 2.86 1.53 1st down pct 25.0 12.5 Rushes per TD 22.7 37.3 *Yards before contact per rush
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
{C}

His impact on the rushing game in particular cannot be understated, with the Browns rushing for first downs at half their previous percentage since Mack broke his leg. Cleveland averaged 146.4 rush yards per game started by Mack (including Week 6, the game in which he was injured), but gained only 158 rush yards total in the three games since (52.7 yards per game).

Simply put, the Browns aren't going to have success running the ball, so can they pass against the Bengals? Brian Hoyer's combined QBR in his past three games (without Mack) is a brutal 25.5, and that's against teams ranked 15th, 26th and 30th in QBR allowed this year -- two of those games were at home. The Bengals are sixth in QBR allowed, and would present a tougher task for the Browns even with Jordan Cameron (out with a concussion) and a healthy Andrew Hawkins (questionable with a thigh/knee injury).

The play: Under.

Andy Dalton 20.5 completions (O/U -110)Using the past three weeks as the benchmark, Browns opponents have run an average of 70 plays per week. The Bengals have dropped back to pass on 55.4 percent of snaps, so applying the 55.4 percent to Cleveland's recent opponent average gives Andy Dalton 38.8 dropbacks (38 for our purposes).

If Dalton drops back to pass 38 times, applying his season rates will get 36 pass attempts (and two sacks/scrambles). Dalton's season completion percentage is 64.9 percent, and Cleveland's defense has allowed opponents to complete 60 percent of passes. Averaging out the two gets a 62.5 completion percentage that can be applied to Dalton's 36 attempts to get just more than 22 completions, enough to hit the over.

If Cleveland can't run the ball and keep the clock moving (see above), they'll be facing frequent third-and-long situations and short drives. This is admittedly an imperfect comparison, but helps, given the odds are the same in either direction, especially when considering a lot of Cincinnati's play-calling rates above were largely without a healthy A.J. Green.

The Bengals have dropped back to pass on 61.6 percent of snaps with Green on the field and 51.6 percent without him. Though Dalton isn't about to throw 45 times a game, the Browns have allowed at least 21 completions in five of eight games this season, and 17 of their past 24 games, dating back to the start of last season.

The play: Over.

 
This is what I grabbed today. Peerman and Green moved on juice (peerman) and Green yards

Hoyer over 240.5 -110

West under 50.5 -115

Peerman under 20.5 -115

Green under 87.5 -115

 
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1.5u on K.Dansby O7.5 (-105) tackles tonight.

I see it lined this way at 5d and sportsbetting. I think he's got a good shot for 10+ tackles in this one. Bengals crew gives out lots of assists and I assume he'll be seeing a lot of Jeremy Hill.

 
Stoudt is starting for Clemson, don't expect Watson to play. Wake has a decent defense and a horrible offense. Gotta play the under, right?

 
swirvenirvin said:
This is what I grabbed today. Peerman and Green moved on juice (peerman) and Green yards

Hoyer over 240.5 -110

West under 50.5 -115

Peerman under 20.5 -115

Green under 87.5 -115
Click to expand...
same guy who gave the west stuff last week

ESPN Cleveland's Tony Grossi reports each of Terrance West, Ben Tate and Isaiah Crowell will get carries against the Bengals on Thursday, and that the Browns could go with the "hot hand."
Grossi nailed Terrance West being the Browns' leading rusher in Week 9, so his report shouldn't be taken lightly. It means Isaiah Crowell should get work behind West and Ben Tate, and could even get a chance to be Cleveland's leading rusher. Crowell has shown by far the most juice of Kyle Shanahan's three amigos, but has struggled with ball security. West is a high-risk RB2, while Tate is a low-upside RB3. Crowell is a daily-league dart throw who remains worth stashing in 12-14 team leagues.
Related: Ben Tate, Terrance West



 
Wake is getting screwed by this officiating crew. Cat gets mauled and no PI. Then the spot for Clemson on 3rd down is about a yard off.

Wake has to stop running that inside hand off play. Oh, nevermind

 
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