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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

Good Capping the NBA Judge I parlayed but it felt like a partay.

Ok, i'm done with the bad posting for tonight. Thanks for the free parking.

 
Frostillicus said:
Good Posting Judge said:
got_nugs said:
I swear to Sweesus I love JR Smith and his why go for 2 to tie mentality.
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A 3 is actually ideal when you're down 2. Even if you get a 33% shot for 3, that's better than a 50% shot from 2, where you then have a ~50%-ish chance of winning in OT.
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So JR Smith is a smart player?
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I didn't see the action leading up to the game-ending brick, but I'm guessing it wasn't ideal.

Literally my favorite person on Twitter, I "LOL" every time I think about this: https://twitter.com/desusnice/status/527619749736640512

 
got_nugs said:
JR is .200ish this yr from 3. Small sample size.

Trestman -200 to be fired before '15 game1. He's toast right?
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Homer opinion here, following advice from Danimal Hampton. The McCaskeys or Halas's have never fired a coach midstream. Puckered Sphincter. I do not advise. Where is this at? Maybe play the other side +money.

 
Raider Nation said:
optionmaven said:
got_nugs said:
JR is .200ish this yr from 3. Small sample size.

Trestman -200 to be fired before '15 game1. He's toast right?
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Homer opinion here, following advice from Danimal Hampton. The McCaskeys or Halas's have never fired a coach midstream. Puckered Sphincter. I do not advise. Where is this at? Maybe play the other side +money.
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Read it again. He didn't write before game 15.
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Really? The info i gathered from another source quoted this, not me. Thanks for the heads up! I still don't think they let him go until seasons end. Team is in dissension, obvious from the last few games McCaskeys won't cave IMO. Pay out and move on next year. JMO.

 
The bet is whether he'll be fired before the 2015 season, dude.

You're saying he will be but then advising to bet the other way.

 
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Sportsbook.ag has their NBA Survivor contest up again. I hit it (meaning I shared the top prize with a couple hundred other people) the first time I played, whiffed the last two. Pretty +EV because everyone blows it by not realizing you need two teams to win all of their Fri - Sun games outright in the last week, and a ton of people usually get wiped out. But you have to go the distance, unlike NFL.

I'm working on my chart.

 
Kelce could be our boy this week. Especially of Fasano out

Speaking Wednesday, coach Andy Reid said Travis Kelce is now prepared for a bigger workload if Anthony Fasano (knee) is out or limited.

This quote equates to porn for fantasy footballers: "At the beginning of the year, we kind of kept the package (for Kelce) smaller," Reid said. "Then we've added to it. He's really kind of up to speed with the whole deal right now." Fasano's knee contusion is not considered overly serious, but he did miss practice Wednesday. Things are shaping up for Kelce to have an expanded role against a Seahawks defense that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. If Fasano ends up inactive, Zeus will be unleashed.
 
Going to a bachelor party on saturday where we'll be watching FB all day. Looking for a nice 3 game parlay of TV games to make it interesting. Early leans (gut feel):

Bama -8.5

Michigan State -12

Duke -5.5

thoughts?

 
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Tennenhill under 245.5 -115 (would play up to 235.5)

Degenerate plays (wouldnt play if not only game) I'm more looking at the 60% rate these hit

Clay under 38.5 -115

Chandler under 30.5 -115

Also last 4 weeks (since i have been tracking) Qb rushing unders are 10-3 in prime time games.

 
The Bills have beat the Dolphins three times since 2013:

"You lose three in a row to anybody, it's not going to feel good," Dolphins cornerback Brent Grimes said. "The Bills play us very well. It'll be a huge game. To get a win on Thursday night at home would feel great for us."
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Since 2012, teams who have lost three consecutive games to a divisional opponent within the span of one year are 21-13 SU and ATS in the 4th game, regardless of who was laying points - the average line worked out to be +3 in that situation. When you narrowed it down to the teams who were favored to win, they went 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS against an average line of -4. It has been hard to beat a divisional opponent four times in a row within the span of one year, especially as the underdog. link

If you narrow those down to just AFC favorites and go back farther - to 2009 - they are 9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS against an average line of -4.5. link

 
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"The span of one year" thing makes those kind of specific, though. And all signs in those games point to the under. I'm not going to be around to watch the game or bet it and would just be pissed off if I lost without getting to see why. So I don't know. And then you have the Thursday night overs that are 18-4 O/U since last season when they are lined 49 or less. I would say Dolphins and over, but can't look at it any more. Hope you dudes are all doing well. School is kicking my ### and too many women at once.

 
@SportsInsights·Nov 3

NFL teams' bets per game this season (in thousands):

Packers 33.5

Colts 33.3

Patriots 33.0

Seahawks 31.2

Broncos 30.8

Sunday Night might set a new record.

 
Billy Bats said:
Billy Bats, on 13 Nov 2014 - 2:03 PM, said:NHL PIM props:

-125 WPG > CAR

-115 OTT > EDM

-115 SJ > TAM
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I've given this some thought, please hear me out. I think I remember you saying that you are using penalty minutes per game and away teams as the factors here. My concern is that fighting majors are polluting the data. For example, San Jose averages 12.82 pm per game, and they lead the league in fighting majors at 12. Edmonton averages 7.13 pm per game but only have 6 fighting majors. Those fighting majors are jacking up that penalty minute per game number. Fighting majors are typically going to offset eachother in any 1 game because it takes 2 to tango. It seems like fighting majors should be removed from the data and minor penalties should only be used. Thoughts?

 
game misconducts might have more impact on those numbers than fights.

10 minutes for calling a ref stupid is tough to plan for.

 
Aaron Rudnicki said:
Aaron Rudnicki, on 13 Nov 2014 - 4:01 PM, said:game misconducts might have more impact on those numbers than fights.

10 minutes for calling a ref stupid is tough to plan for.
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I think both "pollute" the data. I'm probably not doing a great job explaining what I mean. San Jose has 30 more penalty minutes (approx 2 pm/gm) than Edmonton from fighting majors. These penalty minutes are completely irrelevant because the other player/team in the fight was issued a fighting major as well, meaning the penalty minutes are negated. Damn I'm having trouble wording this, am I making sense? :lol:

 
TheGooRoo said:
Billy Bats said:
Billy Bats, on 13 Nov 2014 - 2:03 PM, said:

NHL PIM props:

-125 WPG > CAR

-115 OTT > EDM

-115 SJ > TAM
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I've given this some thought, please hear me out. I think I remember you saying that you are using penalty minutes per game and away teams as the factors here. My concern is that fighting majors are polluting the data. For example, San Jose averages 12.82 pm per game, and they lead the league in fighting majors at 12. Edmonton averages 7.13 pm per game but only have 6 fighting majors. Those fighting majors are jacking up that penalty minute per game number. Fighting majors are typically going to offset eachother in any 1 game because it takes 2 to tango. It seems like fighting majors should be removed from the data and minor penalties should only be used. Thoughts?
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Good thoughts goo and I very much appreciate it since I've done little extensive research. However, wouldn't the fighting majors not matter too much since the other team would get the same 5 for fighting and cancel it out of the total? So at the end of the game it just comes down to more minors, for the most part. So yeah you're right I have to find better numbers without majors. But those fighting majors certainly do inflate the game average, I wonder if I can find the numbers without majors.Eta: shouldve really let your post sink in since I said the same thing and agree with everything you said. Going to research some more and find some better numbers if possible. Good stuff man, thanks.

 
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not sure if it might be better to look at times shorthanded vs average # of power plays/game?

some teams just tend to get lots of PP opportunities because they dominate possession. teams with less possession will normally take more penalties.

 
Early in the 2014 season, many thought the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins had a legitimate chance at catching the New England Patriots and potentially winning the AFC East. Through 10 weeks, though, New England leads both teams by two games. There is a tremendous opportunity here to pick up ground, however, as New England is on the road at Indianapolis this week.

Insider PickCenterWondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision. PickCenter
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The Bills enter this contest having won two straight games as a road underdog, a feat they haven't accomplished since Weeks 6 and 7 in 2009. The last time Buffalo won three straight games when listed as a road underdog was Weeks 2, 16 and the divisional round of the playoffs in 1992.

For Miami, Ryan Tannehill is easily having the best season of his career so far with 15 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions and a completion percentage of 64.3 percent. The one aspect of Tannehill's season that stands out is his rushing ability. Tannehill had 40 rushes for 238 yards last year and 49 rushes for 211 yards his rookie season. This season he has 33 carries for 245 yards, (7.4 yards per rush) and is becoming a weapon on the ground.

According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Dolphins at a clip of 66 percent at the line of Miami minus-5.

Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and an ATS pick on the game from four wiseguys:

​


Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Spread: Opened Miami minus-5.5; now Miami minus-5.5
Total: Opened 42; now 42

Jay Kornegay says: "We posted the Dolphins 5.5-point favorites over the Bills following the afternoon games last Sunday. The line held steady until Monday, when it moved down to minus-5. From this point, the number has been flip-flopping back in forth between minus-5 and minus-5.5. The books won't have a problem with this since it's in dead territory for true football numbers. I expect the favorite money to win out and this line to close at minus-5.5. If the injuries on the Miami side prove to be significant, the line could easily drop.

"The total has been an 'over' player's best friend. These isolated games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights have been lighting up the scoreboards. The combined results for these games have posted a 24-7 record in favor of the over, including 7-3 on Thursday night games. This game opened 42, jumped up to 42.5 on Tuesday and then went back to 42. As we always expect, the over money will come rolling in on Thursday night."

​
ATS picks

Dave Tuley says: "I'm passing on the spread as that looks like a coin-flip (though I would lean to Buffalo getting points after winning the earlier meeting at home), but I really like the under. Granted, I know overs are 24-7 (77.4 percent) in NFL prime-time games this season and 7-3 on Thursday nights (though the unders have cashed the past two Thursdays), but these are two teams that can buck that trend. Both teams have solid defenses (both ranking in the top six in yards allowed per game) and aren't the most explosive offensively. Buffalo is 7-2 with the under this year, while Miami is 5-4 with the under but is on a four-game under streak. The first meeting back in September had the Bills win 29-10, and that would be fine by me here."

Pick: Under

Erin Rynning says: "Perhaps the most important aspect of building an NFL team in the modern era, with the exception of the quarterback position, is the defensive line. The ability to pressure the quarterback and to create havoc without the need to constantly blitz is vital to success. The Thursday night contest will feature two teams with strong fronts on the defensive side of the football. Both teams rank in the top five in the NFL in sacks. In addition, again, both the Bills and the Dolphins can stop the run, holding the opposition under 4 yards per carry and less than 100 yards per game. Finally, with two below-average quarterbacks in Tannehill andKyle Orton under center, the clear play is toward the under, as both teams are familiar with one another in this division tilt."

Pick: Under

Maddux Sports says: "The Dolphins lost 20-16 last week in a game that shouldn't have been that close, as they were outgained 5.6 to 3.9 yards per play and a blocked field goal for a touchdown was the only reason the Lions needed a last-minute touchdown to win. Buffalo, meanwhile, outplayed a good Chiefs team 5.1 YYPL to 4.7 YPPL, but thanks to three fumbles lost (including one at the 1-yard line into the end zone) the Bills lost 17-13. Normally, fluky results like last week's would tend to get me on the Bills, but I actually bet Miami minus-5 as the math model made this game minus-7. I don't love it, but the computer has been on the Dolphins five of the past six weeks -- rewarding me with five ATS wins -- and still thinks the Fish are undervalued in the betting marketplace."

ATS pick: Dolphins

Wunderdog says: "I don't see the value in this one, so I'm passing."

Prop bets

Mike Wallace 56.5 receiving yards vs Bills (O/U -110)

Wallace has been moderately consistent, if unspectacular, this season, with four games of 57 receiving yards or more and five at 56 or less. Wallace was below 56.5 in Week 2 against the Bills by only a half-yard, a game that on the surface doesn't help make a decision -- until looking a little closer at how trends have shifted since that game.

Wallace had five receptions on eight targets, both above his rest-of-season averages. Wallace gained 5 total yards after the catch in that game, indicative of Buffalo's defensive focus on limiting big plays. No defense allows fewer 20-yard pass plays this season than the Bills (21), which would seem to be an important part of how Wallace hits the over here, considering his target rates are down.

Wallace was targeted on 29 percent of his routes in the first five games of the season and at least eight times per game in four of those five. In Weeks 7-10, Wallace was targeted on only 23 percent of routes run (7.3 targets per game), a stretch in which he's been under 56.5 yards receiving in three of four games played. As Wallace's involvement in the offense has decreased, he might need to break a big play to hit the over -- something Buffalo's D is adept at preventing.

The play: Under

Will Kyle Orton throw an interception? (Yes minus-155, No plus-135)

Orton has thrown an interception in 31 of 60 career starts (52 percent), a number that isn't reflected in the odds here. So what are we missing? Orton has thrown a pick in three of his five games this season, a number that is consistent with the high volume of passes he's thrown this year.

Kyle Orton Opponents This Season Team Int rank Orton Int? >>Dolphins rank 7th in NFL Lions 7th Yes Patriots 8th Yes Vikings 15th Yes Jets Last No Chiefs 28th No


Orton has averaged 37.8 pass attempts per start this season (31.7 attempts per career start before 2013). He has thrown at least 37 passes in 26 career starts and has an interception in 19 of them (73 percent). That number looks even better than the minus-155 for "Yes," and that's without even considering how good the Dolphins are on D.

Looking at the chart to the right, of which of Orton's opponents have intercepted passes, the Dolphins seem to very clearly fit into one of two groups. It's more pronounced when you look not just at interceptions but as a percentage of total attempts. The Lions (seventh), Patriots (eighth), Dolphins (ninth) and Vikings (13th) all rank in the top 13 in the league in interception percentage, while the Chiefs (29th) and Jets (32nd) are far from that group.

 
I think GR's 100% right re: fighting majors. The misconduct angle is a good one too. Games where there's a good chance of multiple fights/misconducts might be ones to stay away from, I think you want to focus in as much as possible on minors committed/minors drawn.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
I think GR's 100% right re: fighting majors. The misconduct angle is a good one too. Games where there's a good chance of multiple fights/misconducts might be ones to stay away from, I think you want to focus in as much as possible on minors committed/minors drawn.
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when i used to follow shots on goals when i could play them, there was certainly a correlation with certain officiating crews calling more penalties then others. there would be times when there were anomalies, but it seemed like a trend you could detect during the season. Wuold be interesting to see if the penalties called had any trends, like calls on away vs. home teams, kinds of penalties certain crews would call (Rud's mention of the 10 minute major for yelling at a ref would be big. I have to think some officials are more jumpy calling these then others), etc.

I feel like there is a way to make some good money off those bets, would be kind of fun. And oh yeah, one caveat when i was doing the SOG and following along, was that it was also the year the NHL made an effort to make more calls on certain infractions. Not sure how it holds up over a few years, but seemed to be something over a year and a half, or whatever i looked at it for

 
swirvenirvin said:
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Dolphins at a clip of 66 percent at the line of Miami minus-5.
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I would love to know if that ESPN pick insider gives any kind of indication of how games go. Is that really a good representation of "public/donk" plays? i wouldn't think it would be any of the "sharps" either. just curious if there is any use looking at numbers like that. The CBS pick 'em game we have has the lines up Tuesday, and i like to look by Tuesday evening to see whow the percentages are showing who is being picked. I originally figured "sharper" players may make their picks earlier in the week or something, but i don't think there was any kind of connection

 
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