FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

[Blind Tiger]

Southern Utah +26

 

[Tiger Fan]

Per Schefter on Arian Foster: "Right now it does not look promising. Signs not encouraging." Expects "heavy dose" of Alfred Blue.

All to win 1u each @ SB (Foster still lined as the starter)

Blue scores a TD: +333

Blue first TD: +2000

Blue 2+ TDs: +4500

Just added $20 (to win $1000) on the Blue 2 TDs b/c gambling

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Per Schefter on Arian Foster: "Right now it does not look promising. Signs not encouraging." Expects "heavy dose" of Alfred Blue.

All to win 1u each @ SB (Foster still lined as the starter)

Blue scores a TD: +333

Blue first TD: +2000

Blue 2+ TDs: +4500

Just added $20 (to win $1000) on the Blue 2 TDs b/c gambling

I max-betted first TD. Gonna hurt if I whiff and I'm out $2.50.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I see a 4-0 sweep?! :hyper:

Cheers swirv

BTW looks like we should keep an eye on Vernon this week too.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/14/greg-roman-warns-not-to-fall-asleep-on-vernon-davis/

Interesting.. Crabtree #####ed too he wasn't getting the ball anymore and said he was the third option in the passing game too. Davis has been so useless they may not even offer him anymore.

I could see them trying to get Davis more involved in the red zone, but it would be really hard to bet him over 3.5.

I was thinking they may stop listing him his numbers have been so bad. Not sure I would even touch a 3 over

 

[swirvenirvin]

Per Schefter on Arian Foster: "Right now it does not look promising. Signs not encouraging." Expects "heavy dose" of Alfred Blue.

All to win 1u each @ SB (Foster still lined as the starter)

Blue scores a TD: +333

Blue first TD: +2000

Blue 2+ TDs: +4500

they post props on friday?

 

[Raider Nation]

How do you guys seriously bet 1-2% of your bankroll on each play? If I send, say, $2k to a book, my first play is usually for about $1,990 and I'll leave $10 for an emergency 8-team parlay. (I'm kidding.... mostly. ) How do I change my thinking to look at this as a marathon?

When I was teamed up with some of you guys, it was no problem because it was *our* money. But on my own, I get reckless.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Per Schefter on Arian Foster: "Right now it does not look promising. Signs not encouraging." Expects "heavy dose" of Alfred Blue.

All to win 1u each @ SB (Foster still lined as the starter)

Blue scores a TD: +333

Blue first TD: +2000

Blue 2+ TDs: +4500

they post props on friday?

Not the full suite. Just the TD ones

 

[Tiger Fan]

How do you guys seriously bet 1-2% of your bankroll on each play? If I send, say, $2k to a book, my first play is usually for about $1,990 and I'll leave $10 for an emergency 8-team parlay. (I'm kidding.... mostly. ) How do I change my thinking to look at this as a marathon?

When I was teamed up with some of you guys, it was no problem because it was *our* money. But on my own, I get reckless.

In your example, the $2k isn't really your "true bankroll". B/c I assume if you lose it, you'll just reload. If it was really your bankroll and you lost it, you wouldn't be able to reload it.

I have a spreadsheet set up that has the following:

-Sportsbook.com balance

-RB balance

-Bank Account "envelope" - basically, this is the money I have allotted for gambling that I track separatly but isn't in a book.

-outstanding bets (I treat these as "even money"..figure I'll come out around 50/50 give or take)

Sum that up, and I have my true bankroll. I have another cell that calculates 2.5% of the bankroll and that's my unit. Although I typically don't adjust until it moves to the next $25 increment. Currently, it's calculated at $115/unit, but I still play $100 units. If I get it to $125, then I'll switch. Also, I play "to win" a unit.

 

[mquinnjr]

How do you guys seriously bet 1-2% of your bankroll on each play? If I send, say, $2k to a book, my first play is usually for about $1,990 and I'll leave $10 for an emergency 8-team parlay. (I'm kidding.... mostly. ) How do I change my thinking to look at this as a marathon?

When I was teamed up with some of you guys, it was no problem because it was *our* money. But on my own, I get reckless.

I think of it like blackjack. Risk management, the game goes up and down. have a big enough bankroll to absorb a dealer hot streak, which will also coincide with your own hot streaks. If I want to sit at a $25 a hand table at a casino, I need to have a $500 bankroll to handle the ups and downs. Same with sports, it's just a longer "hand" vs. the ~60 second blackjack hand. Try to come out somewhat ahead, and get some free drinks/entertainment along the way.

 

[Raider Nation]

Thanks fellas.

Marty, what is this "hot streak" you speak of?

 

[mquinnjr]

Thanks fellas.

Marty, what is this "hot streak" you speak of?

I like to think of it more as a state of mind than a reality. They tend to be short lived, or abruptly halted by reckless house money spending.

 

[JerseyToughGuys]

How do you guys seriously bet 1-2% of your bankroll on each play? If I send, say, $2k to a book, my first play is usually for about $1,990 and I'll leave $10 for an emergency 8-team parlay. (I'm kidding.... mostly. ) How do I change my thinking to look at this as a marathon?

When I was teamed up with some of you guys, it was no problem because it was *our* money. But on my own, I get reckless.

lmao. so awesome.

I feel ya.

 

[comfortably numb]

NCAA

1H

u65 FLA/WM

o66 LOU/MIN

u63 ALA/TOW

 

[Scoresman]

How do you guys seriously bet 1-2% of your bankroll on each play? If I send, say, $2k to a book, my first play is usually for about $1,990 and I'll leave $10 for an emergency 8-team parlay. (I'm kidding.... mostly. ) How do I change my thinking to look at this as a marathon?

When I was teamed up with some of you guys, it was no problem because it was *our* money. But on my own, I get reckless.

Read this

A Tale Of Two Sports Bettors

Risky John and Conservative Bob each started the season with $1000 - their bankroll. They both decided to play the same games throughout the season but they couldn't agree on how much to place on each game. John was more of a risk taker than Bob so John decided to bet about $200 per game (20% of his bankroll). Bob was more conservative and decided to risk about $50 per game (5% of his bankroll). Risky John figured that if he bet more, he could win more. And he was right. In week one, their picks went 4-2. John was up $360 while Conservative Bob only won $90. John was very pleased with himself.

Week 2 produced the exact same result. Risky John now had a $1720 bankroll while Conservative Bob was up to just $1180. John was very happy. He encouraged Bob to bet more but Bob wasn't so sure about that strategy. What if their luck started to turn? Risky John preferred to think positively. Besides, they were 8-4 and they knew what they were doing! The first two weeks had proved that.

But then came weeks 3 and 4 in which they went 2-4, 1-3. A bad run for sure, but not uncommon during a 16-week season. In fact, losing streaks are inevitable and guaranteed during a season. Conservative Bob lost $235 while Risky John gave back $940. John now had a lower bankroll than Bob! John was now down to $780. Risky John felt the losing couldn't possibly continue so he stuck with his bet size of $200 per game. The next two weeks they went 2-2 and 1-3.

Guess what? Risky John was now virtually wiped out - down to $280. Bob, meanwhile lost $360 on the terrible four week run but still had $820 left over. One of them was virtually out of money, the other had over 80% of his original bankroll left.

What happened next? Well, John quit. And, the unfortunate four-week run was followed by a great 3-week run where Conservative Bob went 10-3 and another 8 weeks of hitting a very respectable 56% on average. Bob ended up the season at over $1300 - an increase of 30% on his initial bankroll.

The morale of this story is obvious but very few sports bettors practice it. Don't overextend yourself.

 

[Tiger Fan]

40-30 (57%) on the year

194-107 (64%) since 2011

This week: LSU/Ark over 47.5

2011 - 2013 2014 Total Conference Bet W L % W L % W L % ACC Unders 27 8 77.14% 7 5 58.33% 34 13 72.34% PAC12 Overs 22 11 66.67% 3 1 75.00% 25 12 67.57% Big East Unders 28 14 66.67% 4 5 44.44% 32 19 62.75% MW Overs 18 12 60.00% 4 0 100.00% 22 12 64.71% SEC Overs 45 24 65.22% 16 14 53.33% 61 38 61.62% MAC Overs 14 8 63.64% 6 5 54.55% 20 13 60.61%

Adding FSU/UM u64 (playable at 63 also)

 

[Billy Bats]

Flyers -1.5 +135

 

[Pumpnick]

Any props tonight ?

 

[Man In The Box]

Blue 2+ TD already down to +650. Thanks for the heads up GBTF

 

[comfortably numb]

NYI -120

NYI -1.5 +225

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Someone fire up a Risky John alias

 

[Tiger Fan]

Blue 2+ TD already down to +650. Thanks for the heads up GBTF

 

[ChainsawU]

One Pitino, two Pitino, three Pitino, four Pitino, five Pitino, six Pitino, seven Pitino, eight Pitino, nine Pitino.

 

[comfortably numb]

UNLV -5.5

COL -14.5

1H

UNC -10.5

Kentucky -17

ARZ -15.5

 

[swirvenirvin]

40-30 (57%) on the year

194-107 (64%) since 2011

This week: LSU/Ark over 47.5

2011 - 2013 2014 Total Conference Bet W L % W L % W L % ACC Unders 27 8 77.14% 7 5 58.33% 34 13 72.34% PAC12 Overs 22 11 66.67% 3 1 75.00% 25 12 67.57% Big East Unders 28 14 66.67% 4 5 44.44% 32 19 62.75% MW Overs 18 12 60.00% 4 0 100.00% 22 12 64.71% SEC Overs 45 24 65.22% 16 14 53.33% 61 38 61.62% MAC Overs 14 8 63.64% 6 5 54.55% 20 13 60.61%

Adding FSU/UM u64 (playable at 63 also)

lsu at 50.5 now

 

[swirvenirvin]

No talk tonight on the system and taking Toledo? Even with their fourth string QB they covered easily.

havent had time where they a rushing system under? Damn

Utah +7.5 should be a play for sure at 44 right now

Utah +9 is good to go for rushing system

 

[swirvenirvin]

No talk tonight on the system and taking Toledo? Even with their fourth string QB they covered easily.

havent had time where they a rushing system under? Damn

Utah +7.5 should be a play for sure at 44 right now

Utah +9 is good to go for rushing system

Miami Ohio looks good too.. between 46.5 and 47.5

 

[comfortably numb]

NCAA

1H

u65 FLA/WM

o66 LOU/MIN

u63 ALA/TOW

Added

u64.5 WISC/No Kentucky

 

[CowboysHomer]

No talk tonight on the system and taking Toledo? Even with their fourth string QB they covered easily.

havent had time where they a rushing system under? Damn

Utah +7.5 should be a play for sure at 44 right now

Utah +9 is good to go for rushing system

Miami Ohio looks good too.. between 46.5 and 47.5

Va Tech also, at least on Sportsbook

 

[modogg]

How do you guys seriously bet 1-2% of your bankroll on each play? If I send, say, $2k to a book, my first play is usually for about $1,990 and I'll leave $10 for an emergency 8-team parlay. (I'm kidding.... mostly. ) How do I change my thinking to look at this as a marathon?

When I was teamed up with some of you guys, it was no problem because it was *our* money. But on my own, I get reckless.

all you gotta do is win your first $1990 bet dude. Winner!

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm Risky John.

 

[swirvenirvin]

No talk tonight on the system and taking Toledo? Even with their fourth string QB they covered easily.

havent had time where they a rushing system under? Damn

Utah +7.5 should be a play for sure at 44 right now

Utah +9 is good to go for rushing system

Miami Ohio looks good too.. between 46.5 and 47.5

Va Tech also, at least on Sportsbook

its at 48 supposed to be 47

 

[Tiger Fan]

40-30 (57%) on the year

194-107 (64%) since 2011

This week: LSU/Ark over 47.5

2011 - 2013 2014 Total Conference Bet W L % W L % W L % ACC Unders 27 8 77.14% 7 5 58.33% 34 13 72.34% PAC12 Overs 22 11 66.67% 3 1 75.00% 25 12 67.57% Big East Unders 28 14 66.67% 4 5 44.44% 32 19 62.75% MW Overs 18 12 60.00% 4 0 100.00% 22 12 64.71% SEC Overs 45 24 65.22% 16 14 53.33% 61 38 61.62% MAC Overs 14 8 63.64% 6 5 54.55% 20 13 60.61%

Adding FSU/UM u64 (playable at 63 also)

lsu at 50.5 now

 

[Tiger Fan]

The Hornets blew a 23-point lead the other night. Since Mar 09, 2013, teams are 4-18 SU and 6-16 ATS in the subsequent game after blowing a lead of 20 or more points (avg line 2.2). When you narrow it down to the underdog you get 0-14 SU and 3-11 ATS (avg line -5.8).

Phoenix -6.5 for a half u

 

[Tiger Fan]

Bet Labs Software @Bet_Labs · Nov 13

Unders are 1-9 when O/U opens below 40 and more than 2/3 of bets on the Under. Temple-PennSt O/U opened at 39 with 76% of bets on the Under.


Bet Labs Software @Bet_Labs · Nov 13

In those games where the public is on an opening O/U of less than 40, the total has gone over by an average of 13.5 points per game.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

No talk tonight on the system and taking Toledo? Even with their fourth string QB they covered easily.

havent had time where they a rushing system under? Damn

Utah +7.5 should be a play for sure at 44 right now

Utah +9 is good to go for rushing system

Miami Ohio looks good too.. between 46.5 and 47.5

I quit following The System awhile back. No idea on record but if it's recommending Miami OH I'm glad I did. They're wretched

Also I think the Chips are a legit threat to win the MAC...they should trounce these jokers

 

[Tiger Fan]

No talk tonight on the system and taking Toledo? Even with their fourth string QB they covered easily.

havent had time where they a rushing system under? Damn

Utah +7.5 should be a play for sure at 44 right now

Utah +9 is good to go for rushing system

Miami Ohio looks good too.. between 46.5 and 47.5

I quit following The System awhile back. No idea on record but if it's recommending Miami OH I'm glad I did. They're wretched

Also I think the Chips are a legit threat to win the MAC...they should trounce these jokers

to be fair, it's Miami Oh +18.5

 

[Dan Lambskin]

I'm calling 42-10 Chips

 

[Peyton Marino]

CBB season is once again upon us. life is good.

Yale +1

VCU -6

KU -15

Charleston Southern +12

W+M +18.5

There he is!!!!

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=704912&p=17469871

Please update the all time lock record chain.

 

[Pumpnick]

so is the ucf qb hurt or what?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Saints/Seahawks/Packers/Pats Sunday Wong action.

Trying to wade through the CFB games tomorrow, I see some traps in there.

 

[jamil]

Frosty! If I could hug you I would kiss you

 

[Frostillicus]

Frosty! If I could hug you I would kiss you

 

[swirvenirvin]

No talk tonight on the system and taking Toledo? Even with their fourth string QB they covered easily.

havent had time where they a rushing system under? Damn

Utah +7.5 should be a play for sure at 44 right now

Utah +9 is good to go for rushing system

Miami Ohio looks good too.. between 46.5 and 47.5

I quit following The System awhile back. No idea on record but if it's recommending Miami OH I'm glad I did. They're wretched

Also I think the Chips are a legit threat to win the MAC...they should trounce these jokers

8-5 from plays I have posted, you give up easy

 

[Good Posting Judge]

In-conference system via SI:

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2014-15-college-basketball-betting-public-report/

 

[Frostillicus]

Wofford +12.5

 

[tonydead]

Blue 2+ TD already down to +650. Thanks for the heads up GBTF

Yep score TDis now even money. Thanks dude is +333 is yummy.

 

[Frostillicus]

Wow tomorrow's hoops slate looks terrible.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

ORL +9

Gardner Webb +14

 

[Frostillicus]

ORL +9

Gardner Webb +14

My initial lean on that one was LSU, but after further review I couldn't make a decision. Will tail GW because I love you.

 

[modogg]

Lot of MMA plays I made for tomorrow. here are some:

Mark Hunt +350 (only take if you like to live dangerously)

L. Smith +180

S. Bonnar +130

Chandler -220

Ellenberger +165

i like some others too, but these will be the more fun to follow since these will be the main fights on the card. Hunt is a lot more of a fan play then me thinking he will win this fight, but you really can't bet against the guy