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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Modogg... This week survivor is Washington!
Thanks Frosty
If RN doesn't do it, I'll post the sharps report tonight. I'll be out all day. (Not wanting to step on RNs toes, but I know some like to read that thing)
GLTA
AB
Thanks Frosty
If RN doesn't do it, I'll post the sharps report tonight. I'll be out all day. (Not wanting to step on RNs toes, but I know some like to read that thing)
GLTA
AB
Was taking a look at NFL futures @ SB and found this interesting:
Saints Future Odds
-500 to win the South
+1200 to win the NFC
+2500 to win the Super Bowl
Drew Brees is +7500 to be Super Bowl MVP
Now if the odds stay true, the Saints are the heaviest favorite in the NFC to win their division; which on the surface looks odd b/c they have a losing record. But then you dig a little further and
(1) they haven't lost a game over a FG this year other than Dallas
(2) 4 of their 5 losses were on the road, 3 to good teams: Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit
(3) the rest of the NFC South is really down.
(4) 4 home games left (Cin, Bal on MNF, TB, CAR)
So long story short, it makes sense for the Saints to be heavy favorites to win the South.
But I think there's great value in the Brees SB MVP odds. Barring some unforseen out of nowhere thing happening like some defensive player scoring 2 TDs, I don't think the Saints can win the SB w/o Brees being the MVP. Throw in the fact that he's clearly the face of the franchise and city, and a huge national public figure on ads; I would think that if the Saints are in the SB, he'd be about -150 to be MVP give or take.
If you're the hedging type, you could easily hedge your way back out with room to spare by betting against the Saints in each of the playoff games and still have Brees to win MVP at good odds.
Saints Future Odds
-500 to win the South
+1200 to win the NFC
+2500 to win the Super Bowl
Drew Brees is +7500 to be Super Bowl MVP
Now if the odds stay true, the Saints are the heaviest favorite in the NFC to win their division; which on the surface looks odd b/c they have a losing record. But then you dig a little further and
(1) they haven't lost a game over a FG this year other than Dallas
(2) 4 of their 5 losses were on the road, 3 to good teams: Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit
(3) the rest of the NFC South is really down.
(4) 4 home games left (Cin, Bal on MNF, TB, CAR)
So long story short, it makes sense for the Saints to be heavy favorites to win the South.
But I think there's great value in the Brees SB MVP odds. Barring some unforseen out of nowhere thing happening like some defensive player scoring 2 TDs, I don't think the Saints can win the SB w/o Brees being the MVP. Throw in the fact that he's clearly the face of the franchise and city, and a huge national public figure on ads; I would think that if the Saints are in the SB, he'd be about -150 to be MVP give or take.
If you're the hedging type, you could easily hedge your way back out with room to spare by betting against the Saints in each of the playoff games and still have Brees to win MVP at good odds.
Last edited by a moderator:
comfortably numb
Footballguy
I like it.Agree. If NO is in the Super Bowl Brees will be 1st or 2nd best MVP odds.Was taking a look at NFL futures @ SB and found this interesting:
Saints Future Odds
-500 to win the South
+1200 to win the NFC
+2500 to win the Super Bowl
Drew Brees is +7500 to be Super Bowl MVP
Now if the odds stay true, the Saints are the heaviest favorite in the NFC to win their division; which on the surface looks odd b/c they have a losing record. But then you dig a little further and
(1) they haven't lost a game over a FG this year other than Dallas
(2) 4 of their 5 losses were on the road, 3 to good teams: Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit
(3) the rest of the NFC South is really down.
(4) 4 home games left (Cin, Bal on MNF, TB, CAR)
So long story short, it makes sense for the Saints to be heavy favorites to win the South.
But I think there's great value in the Brees SB MVP odds. Barring some unforseen out of nowhere thing happening like some defensive player scoring 2 TDs, I don't think the Saints can win the SB w/o Brees being the MVP. Throw in the fact that he's clearly the face of the franchise and city, and a huge national public figure on ads; I would think that if the Saints are in the SB, he'd be about -150 to be MVP give or take.
If you're the hedging type, you could easily hedge your way back out with room to spare by betting against the Saints in each of the playoff games and still have Brees to win MVP at good odds.
Now getting him to the Super Bowl is why it's at 7500.
The interesting thing here is if NO makes the playoffs they are doing so as a division winner.
Which means they play at home probably against a team with a better record.
I'd gladly take my chances on them winning that game at home and after a playoff win I'd gladly take my chances of them building off that momentum.
Last edited by a moderator:
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
The Ref
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
tOSU OVER
CMU
WMU
CMU
WMU
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
I think your Dawson over is in trouble. Nothing new from him, cant create or shoot.
Also Duke should be favored by 15 or so when the play MSU in a few days
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
I realize that it's probably a trap, but MissSt getting 10 pts is crazy. I can't pass it up.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
I bought in at +8.5
10, I think the Bama hype machine has and will continue to steam the daylights out of this one. Not that Bama is bad or anything at home, but I think MSU hangs, if not outright wins. Definitely seeing a Bama W but not cover likely outcome.ESPN just showed a stat, straight up when #1 ranked teams have traveled to play a team 8-1 or better, I think the road team is 9-8-2.
This is #1 Mississippi state, not ND in a championship game where a blowout is imminent - give me 2 possessions all day. Steamed I'm not getting 10, but
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Was taking a look at NFL futures @ SB and found this interesting:
Saints Future Odds
-500 to win the South
+1200 to win the NFC
+2500 to win the Super Bowl
Drew Brees is +7500 to be Super Bowl MVP
Now if the odds stay true, the Saints are the heaviest favorite in the NFC to win their division; which on the surface looks odd b/c they have a losing record. But then you dig a little further and
(1) they haven't lost a game over a FG this year other than Dallas
(2) 4 of their 5 losses were on the road, 3 to good teams: Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit
(3) the rest of the NFC South is really down.
(4) 4 home games left (Cin, Bal on MNF, TB, CAR)
So long story short, it makes sense for the Saints to be heavy favorites to win the South.
But I think there's great value in the Brees SB MVP odds. Barring some unforseen out of nowhere thing happening like some defensive player scoring 2 TDs, I don't think the Saints can win the SB w/o Brees being the MVP. Throw in the fact that he's clearly the face of the franchise and city, and a huge national public figure on ads; I would think that if the Saints are in the SB, he'd be about -150 to be MVP give or take.
If you're the hedging type, you could easily hedge your way back out with room to spare by betting against the Saints in each of the playoff games and still have Brees to win MVP at good odds.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Was taking a look at NFL futures @ SB and found this interesting:
Saints Future Odds
-500 to win the South
+1200 to win the NFC
+2500 to win the Super Bowl
Drew Brees is +7500 to be Super Bowl MVP
Now if the odds stay true, the Saints are the heaviest favorite in the NFC to win their division; which on the surface looks odd b/c they have a losing record. But then you dig a little further and
(1) they haven't lost a game over a FG this year other than Dallas
(2) 4 of their 5 losses were on the road, 3 to good teams: Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit
(3) the rest of the NFC South is really down.
(4) 4 home games left (Cin, Bal on MNF, TB, CAR)
So long story short, it makes sense for the Saints to be heavy favorites to win the South.
But I think there's great value in the Brees SB MVP odds. Barring some unforseen out of nowhere thing happening like some defensive player scoring 2 TDs, I don't think the Saints can win the SB w/o Brees being the MVP. Throw in the fact that he's clearly the face of the franchise and city, and a huge national public figure on ads; I would think that if the Saints are in the SB, he'd be about -150 to be MVP give or take.
If you're the hedging type, you could easily hedge your way back out with room to spare by betting against the Saints in each of the playoff games and still have Brees to win MVP at good odds.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Was taking a look at NFL futures @ SB and found this interesting:
Saints Future Odds
-500 to win the South
+1200 to win the NFC
+2500 to win the Super Bowl
Drew Brees is +7500 to be Super Bowl MVP
Now if the odds stay true, the Saints are the heaviest favorite in the NFC to win their division; which on the surface looks odd b/c they have a losing record. But then you dig a little further and
(1) they haven't lost a game over a FG this year other than Dallas
(2) 4 of their 5 losses were on the road, 3 to good teams: Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit
(3) the rest of the NFC South is really down.
(4) 4 home games left (Cin, Bal on MNF, TB, CAR)
So long story short, it makes sense for the Saints to be heavy favorites to win the South.
But I think there's great value in the Brees SB MVP odds. Barring some unforseen out of nowhere thing happening like some defensive player scoring 2 TDs, I don't think the Saints can win the SB w/o Brees being the MVP. Throw in the fact that he's clearly the face of the franchise and city, and a huge national public figure on ads; I would think that if the Saints are in the SB, he'd be about -150 to be MVP give or take.
If you're the hedging type, you could easily hedge your way back out with room to spare by betting against the Saints in each of the playoff games and still have Brees to win MVP at good odds.
I knew that was coming.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Looks good to me. Would be nice if the guy could get to the line more than once a game though.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Would you sprinkle Ingram too? He's been huge for the offense, and I'd have to think he'd have longer odds than Brees so not a bad hedge if you're going Brees anyways.Was taking a look at NFL futures @ SB and found this interesting:
Saints Future Odds
-500 to win the South
+1200 to win the NFC
+2500 to win the Super Bowl
Drew Brees is +7500 to be Super Bowl MVP
Now if the odds stay true, the Saints are the heaviest favorite in the NFC to win their division; which on the surface looks odd b/c they have a losing record. But then you dig a little further and
(1) they haven't lost a game over a FG this year other than Dallas
(2) 4 of their 5 losses were on the road, 3 to good teams: Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit
(3) the rest of the NFC South is really down.
(4) 4 home games left (Cin, Bal on MNF, TB, CAR)
So long story short, it makes sense for the Saints to be heavy favorites to win the South.
But I think there's great value in the Brees SB MVP odds. Barring some unforseen out of nowhere thing happening like some defensive player scoring 2 TDs, I don't think the Saints can win the SB w/o Brees being the MVP. Throw in the fact that he's clearly the face of the franchise and city, and a huge national public figure on ads; I would think that if the Saints are in the SB, he'd be about -150 to be MVP give or take.
If you're the hedging type, you could easily hedge your way back out with room to spare by betting against the Saints in each of the playoff games and still have Brees to win MVP at good odds.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Anyone have Phile Steele's plays today?
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/ncaaf-game-week-florida-state-miami/
Miami +3.5 on SB looking good if you can get it.
Miami +3.5 on SB looking good if you can get it.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (minus-8.5) vs. No. 1 Mississippi State BulldogsSaturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
It is No. 1 vs. No. 1 here. Mississippi State is ranked No. 1 in all the polls and deserves to be after beating three top 10 teams (at the time) in a row in Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn. And Alabama is my top-ranked team in the nation, and would be favored in Las Vegas on a neutral field over any other team in the country.
Mississippi State has a dynamic, balanced offense, averaging 520 yards per game in SEC play, led by Heisman contender Dak Prescott. Its defense has a physical front that is allowing just 127 rushing yards per game on the year (3.6 yards per carry) and has recorded 31 sacks. While it allows just 52.4 percent completions, it is yielding 301 YPG passing. Mississippi State also comes in as the much fresher team, having just played UT-Martin last week while Alabama needed overtime to escape with a win at LSU.
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This has been an unusual year for the Crimson Tide, as they are usually the same strong team at home or on the road -- that has only been the case for the defense this season. Alabama QBBlake Sims has looked shaky on the road, hitting just 52.9 percent of his passes -- but he is an exceptional 70.2 percent at home. With a stronger pass attack at Alabama, teams can't stack the line against the Tide and they are averaging 266 YPG rushing at home (5.9 YPC) versus just 131 YPG (3.6 YPC) on the road. In two SEC games at home, Alabama has rolled up an average of 637 total YPG. Incredible.
Alabama has taken on my No. 5-rated schedule and is out-gaining its opponents by 212 YPG while Mississippi State has taken on my No. 41 slate and is only plus-95 YPG. Mississippi State has a solid rush defense, but Alabama has my No. 1 defense in the country and allows just 90 rushing YPG and 2.8 yards per carry. It is also getting more pressure on QBs than a typical Saban defense. Last year, the unit had 22 sacks and this year it already has 23, including a Saban era-high six against Texas A&M (in Alabama's most recent home game, which was a month ago).
This is just Mississippi State's fourth road game with South Alabama, Kentucky and that trip to Death Valley. While LSU boasts one of the toughest stadiums in the country to play in, it was an unranked Mississippi State team taking on a young LSU team in just the fourth game of the season. Now the Bulldogs are a national story, ranked No. 1 and taking on a veteran Alabama team that is used to big games and might just feel like an underdog. I think Alabama takes care of business here.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 17
No. 20 Wisconsin Badgers (minus-6) vs. No. 16 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
The Huskers had a bye last week, which should allow RB Ameer Abdullah to be close to 100 percent for this game. In the opener, Wisconsin probably would have held on and beaten LSU had its defensive line stayed healthy, but that unit has returned to full strength the past three weeks. That has helped the defense allow just 181 YPG the past three games, and Wisconsin actually leads the FBS in total defense -- yielding just 251 YPG, 2.9 YPC rushing and a 46 percent completion rate.
Wisconsin QB Joel Stave missed the first four games, but has regained the job and last week hit 18-of-29 for 219 yards as teams must stack the line to stop the Badgers' massive O-line and RBs Melvin Gordon (1,501 rush yards, 7.6 YPC) andCorey Clement (720, 6.3). Wisconsin can also bring in the mobile Tanner McEvoy at QB, giving defensive coordinators two different styles of QBs to prep for.
Nebraska is also very talented with RB Abdullah (1,250, 6.7) and a much improved QB Tommy Armstrong (571 yards rushing, 1,827 yards passing). Randy Gregory could be the top DE taken in the draft and spearheads one of the best defensive lines in the country. However, in their toughest test of the year, the Huskers trailed Michigan State 27-3 in the fourth quarter before rallying for 19 points. That means the Badgers had better keep the intensity level up for all 60 minutes after the fans "Jump Around" before the fourth quarter opens. This is not so much a play against No. 11 Nebraska as it is a play on a very underrated No. 22 Wisconsin.
ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 31, Nebraska 20
No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (minus-12) at No. 25 Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Last week I was on Iowa, but it was mauled by Minnesota, being out-rushed 291 (4.9 YPC) to 82 (2.8). QB Mitch Leidner used play-action and hit a tidy 10 of 14 passes for 138 yards. That means the Gophers now possess both the Floyd of Rosedale and the Little Brown Jug in the same year.
Ohio State is in a letdown spot as it just won the one game it wanted all year. Last week it trailed 21-14 before taking over, rolling up 568 yards on that top-notch Michigan State defense, doing it on the Spartans' home turf.
While the situation may favor Minnesota, the talent and matchup edge goes to Ohio State. Despite its lofty 7-2 record, Minnesota has defeated only one Power 5 conference team with a winning record (Iowa). The Gophers have taken on one team this year with the similar team speed as Ohio State and that was a 30-7 loss to TCU. Despite their similar records, Ohio State is plus-186 yards per game on the season and Minnesota is just plus-29.
Ohio State has some of the best traveling fan bases in the country and will make up a solid portion of the crowd in its first trip here since 2010. The Buckeyes allow just 103 YPG and 3.0 YPR in Big Ten play, which matches up well with the one-dimensional Gophers. The Buckeyes need style points if they are to make the playoffs and remember, earlier this year they dominated Maryland on the road 52-24.
ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 38, Minnesota 20
No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (minus-1.5) at Miami (FL) Hurricanes
Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
It's good to see this rivalry coming back to the forefront. Last year a dominating Florida State led only 21-14 at the half at home, but then Miami running back Duke Johnson broke his ankle in the third quarter and the Noles rolled to a 41-14 win with a 517-275 yard edge. This year Miami has gotten better each week, as freshman QB Brad Kaaya has a 17-5 TD-to-INT ratio the past seven games and Johnson has 1,213 yards rushing and a nifty 7.7 YPC. Also, its top WR, Phillip Dorsett, is averaging 30.1 yards per catch with six TDs. Miami has allowed just 15 sacks and has averaged 5.7 YPC rushing the ball including 7.15 YPC the past three weeks. Its defense is No. 11 in the FBS, yielding just 312 YPG.
Despite being undefeated, Florida State is a team that has not lived up to its lofty preseason No. 1 ranking. A year after dominating almost each and every foe, it has looked pedestrian for the most part waffling through games against mostly overmatched foes. The FSU defense is allowing 374 YPG and trailed NC State, Notre Dame and Louisville at the half before coming back to win each game.
However, even though the Seminoles haven't played up to their talent for a full game all year, when they flip the switch they are one of the most talented teams in the country. Florida State travels well and Miami rarely has large home crowds (the Noles have won their past four trips here). I will take a team in a situation (when everyone is calling for that team to lose) in which it has won 25 straight games against a team that is just 8-7 in its past 15 games with a record of 0-3 against ranked teams in that span, losing all of them by double-digits.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 38, Miami (FL) 30
Arkansas Razorbacks (minus-1.5) vs. No. 17 LSU Tigers
Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
This is a great spot for the Hogs to finally stop their SEC losing streak at 17. Arkansas should have beaten both Texas A&M (led 28-14 in the fourth quarter) and Alabama (one-point loss). It led No. 1 Mississippi State on the road by 10 in its past outing and also has the advantage of being fresh off a bye.
LSU just had two huge home games at night in Death Valley. There is no doubt that this young LSU team has grown up, as it upset then-No. 2 Ole Miss 10-7 and had Bama on the ropes last week. Only once in the past seven years has LSU had an SEC game the very next week after facing Alabama and that was in 2012: The Tigers beat Mississippi State 37-17 (16-point favorites) but trailed 20-17 in the second half and got a 100-yard interception return for a TD with 1:13 left.
Arkansas always matches up well in this battle for the Bronze Boot, as despite being an underdog by an average of 10 points the past nine meetings, it has lost only once by more than a TD.
LSU's defense is getting better, but is still allowing 4.7 YPC rushing in SEC play and might not have much left after going toe-to-toe with the Tide for 60-plus minutes. LSU's young offense is averaging just 293 YPG on the road this year and QB Anthony Jennings is completing just 47 percent of his passes. Add it all up and I will call for Arkansas to end that dreadful 17-game SEC losing streak.
ATS pick: Arkansas
Score: Arkansas 20, LSU 16
Texas Longhorns (minus-2.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET
These two five-win teams entered the year with high hopes, but are now just hoping to get bowl eligible as they both will be good-sized underdogs in their remaining games. I have been more impressed with Texas this year and the Longhorns are getting better by the week, especially on offense. You know Texas has the defensive edge as it held Oklahoma to one first down in the first half and Baylor to 100 total yards and zero offensive points in the first half (and a season-low 389 yards for the game). It is holding its opponents to 90 yards below their season average. Oklahoma State has yet to play either of those two explosive offenses, but did allow 676 yards to TCU and is yielding seven yards more than its opponents' average on the year.
The surprising numbers are on offense, as Oklahoma State ranks higher in both offensive YPG and PPG. Texas QB Tyrone Swoopes was thrown into the starter's job when David Ash went down but has gotten better weekly. On the other side, Daxx Garman took over under similar circumstances and has 1,883 yards but just 54 percent completions with an 11-to-11 TD-INT ratio.
Over the past four weeks Oklahoma State has averaged just 308 YPG on offense while the surging Horns are at 382 YPG. Last week, Texas had 286 yards at the half and led West Virginia 24-3 and went conservative in the second half (only 65 yards) or the numbers would be even better.
The Cowboys do have the special-teams and home-field edges, but I will side with the visitor, which has the edge on both sides of the ball.
ATS pick: Texas
Score: Texas 27, Oklahoma State 20
Quick hitters
No. 19 Clemson Tigers (minus-3.5) at No. 22 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Clemson should get back QB Deshaun Watson for this game and that is huge. I projected him as the starter at the beginning of the year. Watson took over the job during the Florida State game with 266 yards passing on the road. He then led Clemson to 528 yards against North Carolina in his first start and 493 yards against NC State in his second start; Clemson had 50 and 41 points in those games, respectively. Clemson has a great defensive front seven that is holding ACC foes to just 69 YPG rushing and 2.0 YPC. It is also off a bye and a Thursday night game so the Tigers most likely snuck in some extra work on the option. Now fully loaded, Clemson is one of top teams in the country and has beaten Georgia Tech and its option offense by 20 PPG the past two meetings.
ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 24
South Carolina Gamecocks (plus-7) at Florida Gators
Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET, SEC Network
The higher-ranked team has won eight in a row in the series and 20 of the past 22. This year, neither team is ranked for this game. Last year Florida was down to a third-string QB, but still led most of the game with South Carolina getting two FGs in the last seven minutes to win by five points. No doubt the Gators have more to play for here as they have a shot at winning the SEC East if they win (if Georgia loses once and Missouri twice). The Gators also have the large edge on defense as they allow just 334 YPG to South Carolina's 461.
Florida's offense, which was mostly non-existent, has averaged 36 PPG and 437 YPG the past two weeks. While that makes a decent case for the Gators, I will say that South Carolina is a much better team than its 4-5 record indicates. The Gamecocks were embarrassed by Texas A&M on national TV in the opener, but their other four losses could easily have been four wins. They also almost upset Auburn on the road as a three-touchdown underdog earlier this year and are fresh off a bye with the more veteran QB and desperate for a win. This is a possible outright upset with Steve Spurrier being 10-2 straight up off a bye and 8-0 ATS as a 'dog at South Carolina.
ATS pick: South Carolina
Score: Florida 28, South Carolina 27
Tennessee Volunteers (minus-8.5) at Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday at 4:00 p.m. ET, SEC Network
This is a key game for both teams' bowl hopes. Kentucky is 5-5 with a tough battle with Louisville on deck and Tennessee is just 4-5 but with three winnable games left. Tennessee has faced the nation's toughest schedule, with games already on the road against Oklahoma, Georgia, Ole Miss and South Carolina plus home contests against Alabama and Florida. Tennessee was young at the line of scrimmage at the start of the year, but after facing that gauntlet is now looking forward to a solid November.
Despite that schedule, Tennessee is actually outscoring its foes this year and is buoyed by that road upset at South Carolina. Kentucky has faced a softer early schedule, but after getting into the meat of its SEC schedule, is minus-128 YPG and minus-24 PPG the past four weeks. The clincher is that Kentucky now plays an eighth straight week and third road game in five weeks, while Tennessee is fresh off a late-season bye and at home in front of more than 100,000 enthused fans.
ATS pick: Tennessee
Score: Tennessee 31, Kentucky 17
Stanford Cardinal (minus-7.5) vs. No. 23 Utah Utes
Saturday at 6:00 p.m. ET
This is a battle of the two most physical teams in the Pac-12 and Utah comes in off a misleading final. Last week Utah could have been in a nail-biter with Oregon but WR Kaelin Claylet go of the ball before getting into the end zone and instead of a 14-0 lead, the game was tied 7-7. Even with that bonehead play, Utah trailed by only three points in the fourth quarter (and would have been leading) against the powerful Ducks.
Normally I like to play on a team off a loss like that, but not this week. The situation greatly favors Stanford, as this will be Utah's fifth straight tough battle.
Stanford, meanwhile, was taping its knuckles during the bye week. It is coming off an embarrassing 29-point road loss to Oregon and had all last week during the bye to simmer. The Cardinal have been much better at home than on the road this year -- they are plus-221 YPG and winning by a 32-9 average, while being outgained by 36 YPG and losing by 10 PPG on the road. Add it all up and the fresher team will be more physical and motivated and ready to flex its muscles.
ATS pick: Stanford
Score: Stanford 26, Utah 13
not listed right now at SBWould you sprinkle Ingram too? He's been huge for the offense, and I'd have to think he'd have longer odds than Brees so not a bad hedge if you're going Brees anyways.Was taking a look at NFL futures @ SB and found this interesting:
Saints Future Odds
-500 to win the South
+1200 to win the NFC
+2500 to win the Super Bowl
Drew Brees is +7500 to be Super Bowl MVP
Now if the odds stay true, the Saints are the heaviest favorite in the NFC to win their division; which on the surface looks odd b/c they have a losing record. But then you dig a little further and
(1) they haven't lost a game over a FG this year other than Dallas
(2) 4 of their 5 losses were on the road, 3 to good teams: Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit
(3) the rest of the NFC South is really down.
(4) 4 home games left (Cin, Bal on MNF, TB, CAR)
So long story short, it makes sense for the Saints to be heavy favorites to win the South.
But I think there's great value in the Brees SB MVP odds. Barring some unforseen out of nowhere thing happening like some defensive player scoring 2 TDs, I don't think the Saints can win the SB w/o Brees being the MVP. Throw in the fact that he's clearly the face of the franchise and city, and a huge national public figure on ads; I would think that if the Saints are in the SB, he'd be about -150 to be MVP give or take.
If you're the hedging type, you could easily hedge your way back out with room to spare by betting against the Saints in each of the playoff games and still have Brees to win MVP at good odds.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Thanks Goo.
Philly sports head who's been pretty good capping loves Miam Fla outright.
Philly sports head who's been pretty good capping loves Miam Fla outright.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
TT
Temple U14 -115
OSU O34.5 -120
Temple U14 -115
OSU O34.5 -120
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Johnny Detroit: Checked with a "square" shop and 85% of the action on Florida State over Miami and 67% on the OVER.
11:00am - 15 Nov 14
11:00am - 15 Nov 14
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Upset Special-o-rama-supremoTM
South Carolina
South Carolina
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I rooted for Miami (FL) as a youth. Not shtick.
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Wis -6
Clem -2.5
Parlay
Clem -2.5
Parlay
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
comfortably numb
Footballguy
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
On buckeyes, sparty, dook,bama' ( I know that is not popular around here but I think bama rolls here), and Mia are my card today
GLTA
AB
GLTA
AB
Billy Bats
Footballguy
4T monster tease
OSU -.5
OSU O43
PSU U54
S.CAR +20
OSU -.5
OSU O43
PSU U54
S.CAR +20
got_nugs
Footballguy
Sorry in advance for all you donating money to your books by listening to that Hurricane hype. As bad as FSU has played in the 1h of games, when it mattered in the 2h they have dominated. FSU injuries at LB scare me some but there's no way i'd bet against FSU scoring at will on Miami. Miami gives up big plays on the run outside, Cook/Pender are healthy and ready to go.
I'm also a giant FSU dooshbag so fwiw. I
I'm also a giant FSU dooshbag so fwiw. I
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Billy Bats
Footballguy
Heavy money on the Razorbacks, I'm now seeing a line swing to ARK -1.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
@covers: Nick Saban says RB T.J. Yeldon is now a game time decision for Alabama. pic.twitter.com/Ujly0MrCPV
11:55am - 15 Nov 14
11:55am - 15 Nov 14
I almost lost all my money last night but pulled it all out of my ### at the end. Going to avoid College Football since that #### is random as hell.
I'm not seeing any great plays so I might just put my lump sum on Green Bay ML and call it a day. It's 2014, Mark Sanchez should not be winning Football games.
I'm not seeing any great plays so I might just put my lump sum on Green Bay ML and call it a day. It's 2014, Mark Sanchez should not be winning Football games.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
if RN is risky John, what does that make Eminence?
