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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (5 Viewers)

Hard to believe Edelman is +100, based on average target volume (8.75/game) and receptions (6.0/game) in what is perceived to be an absolute shootout. Might add another 1U onto this one with no vig.

 
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In Luck's two games after the bye, he was outscored 21-3 in the first half of both games. The Colts would end up outscoring the opposing 27-6 and 24-3 in the 2H of those games and win both of them SU and ATS. Also, both games went over. link

So maybe Pats win 1H and lose game?

 
ChainsawU said:
In Luck's two games after the bye, he was outscored 21-3 in the first half of both games. The Colts would end up outscoring the opposing 27-6 and 24-3 in the 2H of those games and win both of them SU and ATS. Also, both games went over. link

So maybe Pats win 1H and lose game?
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hmmmm. I will start with Pats +2 1st half, and go from there.

 
modogg said:
ChainsawU said:
In Luck's two games after the bye, he was outscored 21-3 in the first half of both games. The Colts would end up outscoring the opposing 27-6 and 24-3 in the 2H of those games and win both of them SU and ATS. Also, both games went over. link

So maybe Pats win 1H and lose game?
Click to expand...
hmmmm. I will start with Pats +2 1st half, and go from there.
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You're not worried that the world is on the Pats but the book is still giving them 3 points? I think they could move it to 2.5 and still get plenty of Patriot action.

Also, that's not something the Colts are going to do three years in a row.. get down in that hole early?

 
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ChainsawU said:
modogg said:
ChainsawU said:
In Luck's two games after the bye, he was outscored 21-3 in the first half of both games. The Colts would end up outscoring the opposing 27-6 and 24-3 in the 2H of those games and win both of them SU and ATS. Also, both games went over. link

So maybe Pats win 1H and lose game?
Click to expand...
hmmmm. I will start with Pats +2 1st half, and go from there.
Click to expand...
You're not worried that the world is on the Pats but the book is still giving them 3 points? I think they could move it to 2.5 and still get plenty of Patriot action.

Also, that's not something the Colts are going to do three years in a row.. get down in that hole early?
Click to expand...
I agree with you. I'm chasing a little here, so hopefully it all ends well. I think i like a Bill Belicheck team coming off a bye, playing what might be their last big game of the regular season. I figure they know this is one of the few teams that they will be competing with for home field advantage. I do get a little worried with this likely being a heavy public side, but sometimes the public is right.

And i would think Vegas will take a bit of a beating if Colts win by 3. Have to think this could be the heaviest bet game of the weekend

 
Am I the only person who likes the Colts tonight? I haven't placed any wagers, but I like Saw's note about Luck being 2-0 ATS & SU after the bye. Small data set, but still...

 
fantasycurse42 said:
Am I the only person who likes the Colts tonight? I haven't placed any wagers, but I like Saw's note about Luck being 2-0 ATS & SU after the bye. Small data set, but still...
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It's hard to argue against taking either one of these teams. It's a trip that both of them are coming off the bye. I am just now realizing that within the last fifteen minutes. Trying to dig some stuff up on that.

 
Since 1990, the home team coming off a bye and the opposing team coming off >10 days of rest (I figured >10 days of rest was the equivalent of the other team coming off the bye):

SU: 53-40-1 (2.98, 57.0%)

ATS: 47-47-0 (1.22, 50.0%) avg line: -1.8

How nuts is it that the ATS record is .500.

The over is 6-1 in those last seven games (since Nov 04, 2010) and two of those games went into overtime. How nuts would overtime be.

 
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My general thoughts are that Belichek doesn't want this game to be a shoutout. He's going to control the clock, capitalize off an Andrew Luck mistake, and shorten the game.

 
ChainsawU said:
Since 1990, the home team coming off a bye and the opposing team coming off >10 days of rest (I figured >10 days of rest was the equivalent of the other team coming off the bye):SU: 53-40-1 (2.98, 57.0%)ATS: 47-47-0 (1.22, 50.0%) avg line: -1.8How nuts is it that the ATS record is .500.
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That's ####### sick... I might just sit this one out.

 
Dungy had a little zinger there, "Patriots have never won there (Lucas Oil Stadium)." They are 0-2 there back in '08 and '09. They lost those two games by margins of 3 and 1 points - covered the spread both times.

 
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