Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Am I a bad person for enjoying Em shtick? FWIW I bet the Eagles today so I feel like I'm entitled.
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Warsteinner
Footballguy
RN- the "we just got pounded by the Rams" is by far the best post I've read on this forearm.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Thanks, but it needs some context in here. NE/Indy game thread. The Peyton Manning "Nationwide is on your side" commercial was just on where he sings everything in seven syllables.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=720928&p=17478102
Yeah, I'm sure the books had a lot more risk on the NE/IND over than the DET/AZ over. Consensus % are offered at a variety of different sites so I don't have any reason not to be able to get a general idea where the majority of action is coming in on.
SBR has a "Consensus" tab that shows actual dollars wagered, but I have a hard time trusting their numbers. For example, tomorrow shows 1790 bets on Pittsburgh for a total of $112,700 ($63 average). Tennessee has 844 bets for a total of $570,544 ($676 average). But the number of $1000 bets is not overwhelming for Tenn so something is definitely not right with their figures.
lol, well that means you went 2-0 - no shame in that.
It's never an absolute decision maker, but I always think it is very important to consider where the bets are coming in on.
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Ryan is a much better QB at home than away - 98.3 QB rating at home vs. 84.9 away for his career. Same situation again this year with a 115.7 QB rating at home vs. 79.2 away. Atlanta's OL is decimated with injuries but Cleveland's defense isn't healthy either - Taylor is gone for the year and Dansby left today's game. If Cleveland can't get pressure on Ryan, their defense isn't nearly as dominant on the road as it is at home. Gordon is an amazing player but what kind of shape is he in and will he be on the same page as Hoyer? Atlanta also hasn't had a true home game in four weeks - three away games (where Ryan struggles anyways) and a "home" game in London. Their home game v Chicago was definitely strange given the Bears defensive woes, but including that, they have put up 106 pts in three home dome games this year.
/Devil's advocate
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
The Browns played with no emotion on Sunday. It was as if they were still in recovery mode after their big win against the Bengals and made way too many mistakes with the football. Getting Gordon back will be a big lift for this team both emotionally and schematically. IF CLE were to get Cameron back that would be a huge lift, but I am not certain that is going to happen either. I am not at all surprised ATL is favored at home - if you figure the three points for Home Field Advantage, it is somewhat surprising to me that is all ATL is favored. I need to think about this one long and hard before committing to either side.
GLTA
AB
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Of all Week 11 stats, this one stands out: Green Bay's 108 points in its last 2 games is 7 more than the Raiders have scored in their last 6
Mike Evans' rookie pace stats are 74-1,272-12 with an up arrow. He just turned 21 & is in just his 4th season playing organized football.
Mike Evans' rookie pace stats are 74-1,272-12 with an up arrow. He just turned 21 & is in just his 4th season playing organized football.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Wake -2.5
LA Tech -5
LA Tech -5
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
TE receiving unders went 13-2 yesterday.. Pretty amazing
Maybe I should hedge this with a Titans ML....
Roethlisberger under 292.5 -115
Roethlisberger under 24.5 -115
Roethlisberger under 3.5 rushing -125
Bryant under 4 -125
Wheaton under 37.5 -115
Miller under 39.5 -115
Miller under 3.5 -115
Sankey under 57.5 -115
Mettengerger under 1.5 rushing -115
Maybe I should hedge this with a Titans ML....
Roethlisberger under 292.5 -115
Roethlisberger under 24.5 -115
Roethlisberger under 3.5 rushing -125
Bryant under 4 -125
Wheaton under 37.5 -115
Miller under 39.5 -115
Miller under 3.5 -115
Sankey under 57.5 -115
Mettengerger under 1.5 rushing -115
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
ScoobySnack
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Since the Titans moved to Tennessee in 1997. The Titans are also 3-0 SU and ATS with an O/U of 3-0 in those games lined as the home dog. I think those were all with Jeff Fisher as their coach though, who is a pretty good home dog (just ask the Seahawks and the Broncos, you know what I'm talking about; oh no he didn't).Since week 3 of 2012 the Titans are 9-1 to the over at home lined ≥ 0 against an average total of 43.8. However, they are 0-8 SU and ATS in the L8 games in that situation (avg line 3.2). The Titans are 2-7 SU and ATS this season with an average of 16 points scored per game.
Since last season the Titans are 0-6 SU and ATS with an O/U of 6-0 at home lined ≥ 0 with an average opponent score of 31 ±4.
Steelers o24½ -125
ChainsawU
Footballguy
jamil
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Doesn't help but.. :(
Travis Kelce played on 50-of-52 snaps (96.1 percent) in Sunday's win over the Seahawks.
Kelce's previous season-high for snaps was 66.1 percent. The playing time is encouraging even if his box score (3-37-0 on five targets with one lost fumble) was discouraging on a day Alex Smith only attempted 16 passes. Kelce was asked to execute just 15 pass routes as the Chiefs took the air out of the ball. If Anthony Fasano's knee injury keeps him out Thursday night, we'd fire up Kelce again as a reasonable TE1 in the hopes a more pass-happy gameplan is needed.
Travis Kelce played on 50-of-52 snaps (96.1 percent) in Sunday's win over the Seahawks.
Kelce's previous season-high for snaps was 66.1 percent. The playing time is encouraging even if his box score (3-37-0 on five targets with one lost fumble) was discouraging on a day Alex Smith only attempted 16 passes. Kelce was asked to execute just 15 pass routes as the Chiefs took the air out of the ball. If Anthony Fasano's knee injury keeps him out Thursday night, we'd fire up Kelce again as a reasonable TE1 in the hopes a more pass-happy gameplan is needed.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Em> Cavs tonight?
VA703
Footballguy
The Linemakers’ lean: This side and total are inflated by a prime-time tax because Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games always seem to come favorite and OVER. In this case, the inflated spread doesn't get us excited about the home dog, but we are seeing value with the inflated total. The Steelers' average score this season is 26-23 overall, but 16-21 when they're on the road. Yes, they’re as night-and-day as any team in football when it comes to playing home vs. away. We’ve seen Pittsburgh struggle at the Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville and Baltimore -- why should Tennessee be any different? That said, we're not thrilled about backing the Titans. The only play here is the UNDER.
[SIZE=9pt][/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt][/SIZE]
ChainsawU
Footballguy
Goint back to 2007, the USC/UCLA game has been decided by double-digits each time; by an average of 22 ±13 points. USC won '07 thru '11 and lost in '12 and '13. This will be the first time USC has been be given points versus UCLA since 2001. USC is 3-0 SU and ATS L3 as the dog, versus Oregon State and Stanford twice since last November.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
Cavs got LeBron now ya know. LeBron wouldn't let the Cavs drop a home game to a 2-7 team. Easy money.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Pellies/Blazers u203.5, bromigos.
Through last night, if you blindly bet every under at Pinnacle open, you would be up 16.02 units.
Still deciding, that spread is huge. Nuggets have lost by 22, 16, 17, and 16 this year. Meanwhile the Cavs have only one win all season that would cover that spread, a 33 point win against the Hawks in their last home game.
I'm more siding towards a Lebron player prop like O27.5 points which he's done 5 out of 8 games this season.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Bovada:
McClellan u 14p
Frazier o 1.5 made 3s
Pangos u 14.5p
McClellan u 14p
Frazier o 1.5 made 3s
Pangos u 14.5p
lumpy19
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Prop bet
Zach Mettenberger 19.5 completions vs. Steelers (O/U -110)
John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information says: As this is Mettenberger's third career start, there simply isn't much to learn from his body of work. Unfortunately for Mettenberger, inexperienced is just how **** LeBeau likes his opposing quarterback. Since LeBeau became the Steelers' defensive coordinator in 2004, rookie starting QBs are just 2-17 against the Steelers. Rookie quarterbacks have averaged 16.7 completions per game in starts against the Steelers in that span. Only six of the 19 would have hit a 19.5-completion over.
Completing 20 passes in a game might be a tall ask for Mettenberger regardless of who the opposing defensive coordinator is. Even at LSU, Mettenberger had at least 20 completions in a game in only four of his 25 career starts. He threw for 300 yards in a game three times (once against Furman). At Mettenberger's current 61.6 completion percentage, he would require 33 pass attempts to reach at least 20 completions.
Between college and the pros, Mettenberger has thrown at least 33 passes in a game in five of his 27 starts since high school. And none of those was against a #### LeBeau defense.
The play: Under
Interesting in the bolded portion
Zach Mettenberger 19.5 completions vs. Steelers (O/U -110)
John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information says: As this is Mettenberger's third career start, there simply isn't much to learn from his body of work. Unfortunately for Mettenberger, inexperienced is just how **** LeBeau likes his opposing quarterback. Since LeBeau became the Steelers' defensive coordinator in 2004, rookie starting QBs are just 2-17 against the Steelers. Rookie quarterbacks have averaged 16.7 completions per game in starts against the Steelers in that span. Only six of the 19 would have hit a 19.5-completion over.
Completing 20 passes in a game might be a tall ask for Mettenberger regardless of who the opposing defensive coordinator is. Even at LSU, Mettenberger had at least 20 completions in a game in only four of his 25 career starts. He threw for 300 yards in a game three times (once against Furman). At Mettenberger's current 61.6 completion percentage, he would require 33 pass attempts to reach at least 20 completions.
Between college and the pros, Mettenberger has thrown at least 33 passes in a game in five of his 27 starts since high school. And none of those was against a #### LeBeau defense.
The play: Under
Interesting in the bolded portion
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Eminence" data-cid="17480383" data-time="1416254155"><p><p>Are you aware he missed their shoot around today due to illness?
Frostillicus
Footballguy
<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="Good Posting Judge" data-cid="17480588" data-time="1416256627"><p><p><blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Eminence" data-cid="17480383" data-time="1416254155"><p> 
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Neat board
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Surprised they'd even play him tonight, tbh. Pretty ideal spot for a DNP-Popovich.
Swirv, are you ***officially*** endorsing the Mettenberger prop?
Swirv, are you ***officially*** endorsing the Mettenberger prop?
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
i grabbed an under 19 for smaller on a few of mine. Couldnt find their fake line of 19.5 anywhere These guys nailed that Wallace one on TNF. Ill give them another chance
mquinnjr
Footballguy
I got 18.5, so I'll tread lightly but took it to win 1U.
Nice call/find on this one.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Wichita is going to smash Memphis tomorrow. Will likely be a 2u play for me.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
lumpy19 said:Frostillicus said:
Whoops, that's the line I played. 2.5, not 1.5.tjnc09 said:
regularguy
Footballguy
A play at -150?lumpy19 said:Frostillicus said:Whoops, that's the line I played. 2.5, not 1.5.tjnc09 said:
