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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (4 Viewers)

Good Posting Judge said:
[icon] said:
LSU -1.5 / UGA PK / STAN -7 / BAMA -2

+200 for 1u

Lot of big SEC games sitting in a pretty nice teaser window. Maybe parlay this for a little bit as well We'll see
Click to expand...
As a word of warning, teasers become less effective on games where more points are being scored...if you like those games on their own then cool, but there are very few cfb games that i think can show a positive expectation if they're wonged.
Click to expand...
Makes me wonder if there is a possible teaser window for college basketball, given the lower scoring. Adding or subtracting a couple of possessions. Gut tells me weird, unexpected things happen in the sport way too much for there to be any positive correlation to just adding 4 points.

Though I imagine why it tends to work so well in the NFL is low scoring, parity, and how teasers work out to 3s and 7s.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
[icon] said:
LSU -1.5 / UGA PK / STAN -7 / BAMA -2

+200 for 1u

Lot of big SEC games sitting in a pretty nice teaser window. Maybe parlay this for a little bit as well We'll see
Click to expand...
As a word of warning, teasers become less effective on games where more points are being scored...if you like those games on their own then cool, but there are very few cfb games that i think can show a positive expectation if they're wonged.
Click to expand...
Speaking of teasers I bet knocking Dallas down to one point or so will be a very popular key game this week.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
[icon] said:
LSU -1.5 / UGA PK / STAN -7 / BAMA -2

+200 for 1u

Lot of big SEC games sitting in a pretty nice teaser window. Maybe parlay this for a little bit as well We'll see
Click to expand...
As a word of warning, teasers become less effective on games where more points are being scored...if you like those games on their own then cool, but there are very few cfb games that i think can show a positive expectation if they're wonged.
Click to expand...
Only ones I like so far are the CFB Playoff games with favorites teased down, and unless you caught the opening lines you can't get through 3 any longer. Even so, it's rare like you said for it to work. I'll probably end up playing those games simply ATS and hoping.

 
8 yard (~14%) potential middle on Terrence Magee

RB - o49.5 -120

SB - u57.5 +105

Not sure it's a good idea, but just pointing it out

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Good Posting Judge said:
[icon] said:
LSU -1.5 / UGA PK / STAN -7 / BAMA -2

+200 for 1u

Lot of big SEC games sitting in a pretty nice teaser window. Maybe parlay this for a little bit as well We'll see
Click to expand...
As a word of warning, teasers become less effective on games where more points are being scored...if you like those games on their own then cool, but there are very few cfb games that i think can show a positive expectation if they're wonged.
Click to expand...
I hear ya... and appreciate the heads-up. Definitely aware 6 points in a game with a total of 46 is worth much more (14%) than a game with a total of 72 (8%). That said the totals for those games average around 50-52 points which is still a reasonably low total (talking only a few points over typical NFL totals). In general I've done pretty well with SEC teasers as a result of what I perceive to be a bit more predictable pro-style scoring/defense combinations than some of the more "wide open" conferences.

That said, I've never claimed to be an expert here and am just a action/hobbyist here to tail some plays and through out some random thoughts. Despite a decent run recently, tail with extreme care. :lol:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
hagmania said:
Good Posting Judge said:
[icon] said:
LSU -1.5 / UGA PK / STAN -7 / BAMA -2

+200 for 1u

Lot of big SEC games sitting in a pretty nice teaser window. Maybe parlay this for a little bit as well We'll see
Click to expand...
As a word of warning, teasers become less effective on games where more points are being scored...if you like those games on their own then cool, but there are very few cfb games that i think can show a positive expectation if they're wonged.
Click to expand...
Makes me wonder if there is a possible teaser window for college basketball, given the lower scoring. Adding or subtracting a couple of possessions. Gut tells me weird, unexpected things happen in the sport way too much for there to be any positive correlation to just adding 4 points.

Though I imagine why it tends to work so well in the NFL is low scoring, parity, and how teasers work out to 3s and 7s.
Click to expand...
It is funny that you can tease an NBA game and a CBB game for the same amount of points at the same price, which probably just means that if you tease NBA you're a complete moron, whereas teasing CBB means you may only be a bit of a moron.

I fooled around with CBB teasers a bit a couple years ago, it may be easier to do some homework with something like Sportsinsights. But yeah, you'd want a low-scoring game, and I imagine that you would want to tease as close to zero as possible, e.g. -4.5 to -0.5. To break even you'd need to hit something like 70%.

 
[icon] said:
NFL > DAL -0.5 / CIN +12 for 1u (-120)

Action teaser for today that will begin backloading action onto the NC Semis:

A&M +8 / CLEM +12 / ARK -0.5 / F STATE +14 >> 1u +260
Click to expand...
So far on the right side here, should have parlayed instead of teased. But happy to stack more bricks on "cheap" teased playoff semis.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Good Posting Judge said:
hagmania said:
Good Posting Judge said:
[icon] said:
LSU -1.5 / UGA PK / STAN -7 / BAMA -2

+200 for 1u

Lot of big SEC games sitting in a pretty nice teaser window. Maybe parlay this for a little bit as well We'll see
Click to expand...
As a word of warning, teasers become less effective on games where more points are being scored...if you like those games on their own then cool, but there are very few cfb games that i think can show a positive expectation if they're wonged.
Click to expand...
Makes me wonder if there is a possible teaser window for college basketball, given the lower scoring. Adding or subtracting a couple of possessions. Gut tells me weird, unexpected things happen in the sport way too much for there to be any positive correlation to just adding 4 points.

Though I imagine why it tends to work so well in the NFL is low scoring, parity, and how teasers work out to 3s and 7s.
Click to expand...
It is funny that you can tease an NBA game and a CBB game for the same amount of points at the same price, which probably just means that if you tease NBA you're a complete moron, whereas teasing CBB means you may only be a bit of a moron.

I fooled around with CBB teasers a bit a couple years ago, it may be easier to do some homework with something like Sportsinsights. But yeah, you'd want a low-scoring game, and I imagine that you would want to tease as close to zero as possible, e.g. -4.5 to -0.5. To break even you'd need to hit something like 70%.
Click to expand...
-1.5 is a possession at least. Time for some digging, but not right now. :noted:

 
Tiger Fan said:
The Ref said:
hagmania said:
Tiger Fan said:
ND has given up an avg of 244 yards on the ground over the last 5 games. I know Day is back (sat out last 2 games), but Fournette o108.5 (RB) could be a play. Wouldn't mind hearing from the prop guys though
Click to expand...
Nashville local radio had beat writers for both teams... they are expecting LSU to hand the ball off 50 times.Of course now they'll throw for 300 yards. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
I already bet under Jennings and over both RB's
Click to expand...
Tiger Fan said:
hagmania said:
Tiger Fan said:
ND has given up an avg of 244 yards on the ground over the last 5 games. I know Day is back (sat out last 2 games), but Fournette o108.5 (RB) could be a play. Wouldn't mind hearing from the prop guys though
Click to expand...
Nashville local radio had beat writers for both teams... they are expecting LSU to hand the ball off 50 times.Of course now they'll throw for 300 yards. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
unpossible. I think the under 11.5 jennings completions hits
Click to expand...
:excited:
Click to expand...
Yeah, I didn't bet it
 
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