Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Is there a justification on the Cooper under? He's pretty much the best WR in CFB.
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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
comfortably numb
Footballguy
OOoooh THAT Cooper????
137.5 seems like a huge number.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/534458/amari-cooper
He's gone under in 4 of his last 5 games.
modogg
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
modogg
Footballguy
One of my favorite quotes from a pro athlete is at the 10 second mark here:
http://mmajunkie.com/2014/08/video-hot-mics-catch-daniel-cormier-and-jon-jones-and-a-death-threat
For all fringe MMA/UFC fans, this fight will be a fun one
http://mmajunkie.com/2014/08/video-hot-mics-catch-daniel-cormier-and-jon-jones-and-a-death-threat
For all fringe MMA/UFC fans, this fight will be a fun one
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
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Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Late okay under Elliot's rush yards
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
I think Mariota's size and style are similar to Kaepernick, but he's obviously much, much more accurate. Said to be very intelligent on the field and a good leader. You saw his heart if you watched the Heisman presentation. I'd take him #1.Dan Lambskin said:
I wouldn't touch Winston. Wouldn't pick him up as a UFA, even for the practice squad.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
WTH, let's keep the over train going.
Bama/tOSU o57
Bama/tOSU o57
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
TheGooRoo said:
Nice job on that over. Do you know what the CBB totals max are over there at BetOnline?Raider Nation said:I finally posted up at SportsBetting and BetOnline, intending to play props. Ended up putting all of it on the over ... again. F it. If you're gonna gamble, gamble.
GO POINTS!!!
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Thanks.Nice job on that over. Do you know what the CBB totals max are over there at BetOnline?Raider Nation said:I finally posted up at SportsBetting and BetOnline, intending to play props. Ended up putting all of it on the over ... again. F it. If you're gonna gamble, gamble.
GO POINTS!!!
$1,000, but I just signed up. It may be higher for long-time players. Sportsbetting is their sister site, so it's essentially a $2k limit if you use them both.
Edit: Oh, you said CBB. Stand by.
Looks like $250 max, but there are only crap games left on the board tonight. It may be higher for bigger conferences.
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Yeah, that crappy garbage like Idaho vs. Idaho St.Thanks.Nice job on that over. Do you know what the CBB totals max are over there at BetOnline?Raider Nation said:I finally posted up at SportsBetting and BetOnline, intending to play props. Ended up putting all of it on the over ... again. F it. If you're gonna gamble, gamble.
GO POINTS!!!
$1,000, but I just signed up. It may be higher for long-time players. Sportsbetting is their sister site, so it's essentially a $2k limit if you use them both.
Edit: you said CBB. Stand by.
Looks like $250 max, but there are only crap games left on the board tonight. It may be higher for bigger conferences.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Two other historically profitable trends include large underdogs and underdogs in games with low totals. Here, we define large underdogs as 5.5 points or more and have filtered out the highest over/unders by removing any totals of over 50 points. The table below summarizes these results:
Playoff SystemATS record of underdogs versus favorites in playoff matchups, since 2004
Underdogs ATS record Units won ROI * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records.
** Units won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $1,170 ($100 x 11.70 units) following the system.
*** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment.
All 65-53 (55.1%) +9.37 units +7.9%
Contrarian 'dogs 35-27 (56.5%) +6.52 units +10.5%
Contrarian 'dogs, 5.5+ pts 22-11 (66.7%) +9.49 units +28.8%
Contrarian 'dogs, 5.5+ pts, total <50 20-7 (74.1%) +11.65 units +43.1%
Why does this work?
It's no surprise that casual bettors love big games and marquee matchups, and every NFL playoff game fits those criteria. Every playoff game is given the big-game treatment from the national media and, as a result, sportsbooks see a large influx of money from square/recreational bettors who want to bet on the game because they will be watching -- not necessarily because they have an edge. These recreational bettors tend to take favorites more often than underdogs, which allow oddsmakers to shade their opening lines in anticipation of public action. With so much parity in the NFL, sharp bettors will gladly take the underdogs at an artificially inflated number.
Other playoff factors to consider
The adage "defense wins championships" may be more repetitive than a trained parrot, but it's a cliché for a reason. Since 2004, teams that allow less than 18 points per game have gone 34-20 ATS. Only two playoff teams fit these criteria (Seattle 15.9 PPG, Detroit 17.6 PPG), though the Seahawks have earned a first-round bye.
Also worth noting is betting teams to win straight up (a wager for a straight-up win) can be a highly profitable strategy during the NFL playoffs largely because of the parity of the teams. Taking every underdog on the moneyline would have resulted in a losing record (46-74) but a profit of plus-23.3 units. Underdogs of at least seven points have been particularly lucrative with an 11-14 record and plus-23.7 units earned (97.3 percent ROI).
Wild-card system matches
Detroit Lions (plus-7) at Dallas Cowboys
Earlier this week the Lions were slated to play without Ndamukong Suh after the star defensive tackle stepped on the leg of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers during Detroit's 30-20 loss to Green Bay (on Tuesday the suspension was rescinded). Perhaps that explains why bettors have avoided the Lions like the plague. At the time of publication, Detroit was receiving just 20 percent of spread bets -- the lowest percentage in our database.
Considering Tony Romo's struggles in big games and Detroit's stout defense, we'll gladly grab the Lions getting a touchdown in this game.
Arizona Cardinals (plus-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
Despite finishing the season with a losing record, the NFC South champion Panthers (7-8-1) will host the Arizona Cardinals (11-5) in their divisional matchup. Given the struggles of third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, it's none too surprising that Arizona opened as a 4-point road 'dog at Pinnacle. Since then, the Panthers have received 60 percent of spread bets, which has inflated the line to Carolina minus-5.5. The Panthers are known for their tendency to run the ball and games featuring run-heavy teams tend to lead to fewer possessions and closer games.
Also, with a total of just 38, oddsmakers are clearly expecting a low-scoring game. Games with low totals have disproportionately benefited the underdog, so we are happy to grab the Cardinals as 5.5-point underdogs in this matchup.
Playoff SystemATS record of underdogs versus favorites in playoff matchups, since 2004
Underdogs ATS record Units won ROI * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records.
** Units won is the amount of money a betting system won or lost after factoring in juice. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $1,170 ($100 x 11.70 units) following the system.
*** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from the sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment.
All 65-53 (55.1%) +9.37 units +7.9%
Contrarian 'dogs 35-27 (56.5%) +6.52 units +10.5%
Contrarian 'dogs, 5.5+ pts 22-11 (66.7%) +9.49 units +28.8%
Contrarian 'dogs, 5.5+ pts, total <50 20-7 (74.1%) +11.65 units +43.1%
Why does this work?
It's no surprise that casual bettors love big games and marquee matchups, and every NFL playoff game fits those criteria. Every playoff game is given the big-game treatment from the national media and, as a result, sportsbooks see a large influx of money from square/recreational bettors who want to bet on the game because they will be watching -- not necessarily because they have an edge. These recreational bettors tend to take favorites more often than underdogs, which allow oddsmakers to shade their opening lines in anticipation of public action. With so much parity in the NFL, sharp bettors will gladly take the underdogs at an artificially inflated number.
Other playoff factors to consider
The adage "defense wins championships" may be more repetitive than a trained parrot, but it's a cliché for a reason. Since 2004, teams that allow less than 18 points per game have gone 34-20 ATS. Only two playoff teams fit these criteria (Seattle 15.9 PPG, Detroit 17.6 PPG), though the Seahawks have earned a first-round bye.
Also worth noting is betting teams to win straight up (a wager for a straight-up win) can be a highly profitable strategy during the NFL playoffs largely because of the parity of the teams. Taking every underdog on the moneyline would have resulted in a losing record (46-74) but a profit of plus-23.3 units. Underdogs of at least seven points have been particularly lucrative with an 11-14 record and plus-23.7 units earned (97.3 percent ROI).
Wild-card system matches
Detroit Lions (plus-7) at Dallas Cowboys
Earlier this week the Lions were slated to play without Ndamukong Suh after the star defensive tackle stepped on the leg of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers during Detroit's 30-20 loss to Green Bay (on Tuesday the suspension was rescinded). Perhaps that explains why bettors have avoided the Lions like the plague. At the time of publication, Detroit was receiving just 20 percent of spread bets -- the lowest percentage in our database.
Considering Tony Romo's struggles in big games and Detroit's stout defense, we'll gladly grab the Lions getting a touchdown in this game.
Arizona Cardinals (plus-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
Despite finishing the season with a losing record, the NFC South champion Panthers (7-8-1) will host the Arizona Cardinals (11-5) in their divisional matchup. Given the struggles of third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley, it's none too surprising that Arizona opened as a 4-point road 'dog at Pinnacle. Since then, the Panthers have received 60 percent of spread bets, which has inflated the line to Carolina minus-5.5. The Panthers are known for their tendency to run the ball and games featuring run-heavy teams tend to lead to fewer possessions and closer games.
Also, with a total of just 38, oddsmakers are clearly expecting a low-scoring game. Games with low totals have disproportionately benefited the underdog, so we are happy to grab the Cardinals as 5.5-point underdogs in this matchup.
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lumpy19
Footballguy
TV totals are usually 1kEta: I believe u can rebet after 60 secondsYeah, that crappy garbage like Idaho vs. Idaho St.Thanks.$1,000, but I just signed up. It may be higher for long-time players. Sportsbetting is their sister site, so it's essentially a $2k limit if you use them both.Nice job on that over. Do you know what the CBB totals max are over there at BetOnline?Raider Nation said:I finally posted up at SportsBetting and BetOnline, intending to play props. Ended up putting all of it on the over ... again. F it. If you're gonna gamble, gamble.
GO POINTS!!!
Edit: you said CBB. Stand by.
Looks like $250 max, but there are only crap games left on the board tonight. It may be higher for bigger conferences.
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Thanks for checking, that is exactly what I was interested in knowing were limits on smaller conferences totals - those are only offered at a very few places.Thanks.Nice job on that over. Do you know what the CBB totals max are over there at BetOnline?Raider Nation said:I finally posted up at SportsBetting and BetOnline, intending to play props. Ended up putting all of it on the over ... again. F it. If you're gonna gamble, gamble.
GO POINTS!!!
$1,000, but I just signed up. It may be higher for long-time players. Sportsbetting is their sister site, so it's essentially a $2k limit if you use them both.
Edit: Oh, you said CBB. Stand by.
Looks like $250 max, but there are only crap games left on the board tonight. It may be higher for bigger conferences.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Are you gonna be dabbling in CBB totals nightly?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
What am I missing with the Cactus Bowl total being only 56 tomorrow night? 
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
####, I was very wrong about FSU and OSU. :X
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
BAMA -3.5 and 30.
I think I'll sit on my o57.
I think I'll sit on my o57.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Yeah I'm going Bama -3.5 since I have a middle now.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
We really need that awful Steve Stevens show to come back soon.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
You form groups of players and then have "wars" with randomly selected other clans from around the world. I never got up to the level where I could contribute (my wife told me to knock it off with the kid games (Sorry Bender)) on their level, but I think I had a good mind for it early on.Aaron Rudnicki said:
But the guys in there are insanely well-coordinated and effective. There are a couple different clans, and they all have stupid W-L records, like 22-0 and ####.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
TF>take a look at that Iowa/Vols game tomorrow please. I have no leans at all there.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
I'll start looking at these when the bowls are over, thanks for posting. How is the season going?
facook
Footballguy
I certainly hope you're right Goo. As a native Oregonian it's too tough for me to be objective about this guy. He seems to be as good a person as he is a player. There's a story floating around here that he was pulled over for speeding, the cop tried to let him off with a warning, and he insisted the cop write the ticket to save him media grief if it came out. He also was one of the counselors at my son's summer camp this last summer and my boy and his buddies had nothing but good things to say about him. To them he was just "Marcus" until one of the other counselors let it slip about which Marcus he was. He's pretty much the anti-Winston, and I am PRAYING that he is also - at least as far as NFL success goes - the anti-Joey Harrington. Any team would be lucky to have him as a guy. Hopefully his NFL career will match up to that standard.
Why did I bet on this Alabama defense?
