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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter John Bender
- Start date
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Know it has been brought up before but whats the take on declaring gambling winnings. I mean it's still illegal right? So would declaring anything be a flag?
lumpy19
Footballguy
It's not illegal. Even if it was the IRS doesn't care, they don't share information with other agencies. You could put that you sell drugs on your taxes and as long as your honest with the monetary stuff that's all the IRS cares about.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
The IRS never gave me any money back when I lost for 20 straight years. Funny how that works.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Whoa. Hope they come through like your tackle props.Aaron Rudnicki said:
Good odds there, let's do this. 
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Adding a parlay of the Blackhawks and Nevada at a pick 'em (Johnny Detroit's Best Bet) which pays +143.
lumpy19
Footballguy
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
It's not?
ETA guess this sums it up. Shady/nothing would realistically ever happen to the bettor
http://www.legalbettingsites.com/
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I think the legality is focused more on the bookmaker than the people actually placing the bets.
modogg
Footballguy
Yup. We have had this discussion a few times in these wagering threads. Definitely looking after the books. But Lumpy is right, IRS is definitely interested in those with the winnings.
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Offshores post first openers
Those earlier lines notwithstanding, offshore giant Pinnacle was the first to post a Super Bowl line after the Patriots jumped out to an early lead over the Colts. Since the Seahawks had struggled before rallying to beat the Packers (but not covering the closing 8.5-point spread) 28-22 in overtime, it's not surprising that Pinny lowered Seattle to a 2-point favorite when it opened at 4:23 p.m. PT (7:23 p.m. ET, but we'll stick with Vegas/Pacific Time). BetOnline opened Seattle minus-3 after the Patriots opened up a 14-0 lead, and both stayed there for the next 100 minutes before the line started getting posted in Vegas.
Why the delay?
The Super Bowl line traditionally has opened when the second conference championship game goes final, or when its outcome is no longer in doubt. Even in the case of blowouts, the Vegas books have usually waited until the start of the fourth quarter before feeling comfortable enough to start taking Super Bowl bets. The reason for this is because, while offshore books can more easily void and refund bets taken on a matchup that doesn't end up happening, Vegas shops have the logistical problem of having early bettors needing to come back to the counter to void their tickets and get refunds. It just makes the Vegas books more leery of jumping the gun. (Imagine if the games were played in reverse order and played out the same way; there probably would have been some books that posted a New England-Green Bay line before Seattle's rally.)
Vegas books reopen their SB lines
No Vegas books had posted a line with the Patriots leading the Colts 24-7, but when Tom Bradyhit Rob Gronkowski with a 5-yard touchdown pass with 3:19 left in the third quarter to give New England a 31-7 lead, that was enough for the Westgate, which reopened at Seattle minus-2.5 at 6:13 p.m. PT. That adjustment made sense considering the Seahawks' struggles and the Patriots' dominance. Within minutes, the MGM, South Point, Wynn and CG Technology also went with Seattle minus-2.5, but the first sign of things to come was Stations opening at Seattle minus-2. Then the Patriots starting pouring it on, going up 38-7 on the Colts with 2:08 left in the third quarter.
Shortly after that, Pinnacle dropped to Seattle minus-1.5, and the first Vegas book to move off its opener was the MGM, as it dropped to minus-1.5 by 6:24 p.m. PT. The Westgate followed suit at 6:27 p.m. PT, and when the Patriots scored again to take a 45-7 lead with 10:05 to play, a lot of books started going to pick 'em.
The MGM was the first to flip the favorite, going to New England minus-1 at 6:40 p.m. PT. By the time the AFC title game ended at 7:03 p.m. PT, I reported on my Twitter feed that the consensus line in Vegas was pick 'em with an over/under of 49. While six of the 14 books on the Don Best odds screen were at pick 'em, the Boyd Gaming books had joined MGM at New England minus-1 while the Wynn and Treasure Island books were holding the line at Seattle minus-1.5. Over the next two hours, pick 'em remained the consensus with Boyd Gaming dipping to pick 'em while Station Casinos joined MGM at New England minus-1.
History repeating itself?
It's interesting to note that we saw the same thing a year ago, as reported in my Opening Line Report for Super Bowl XLVIII, as Seattle was the favorite on the advance line and opened minus-2 against Denver, and then all the early money came in on the AFC champion that won convincingly while the Seahawks had a much harder test. The line went all the way to Denver minus-3 before getting bet back down. We all know what happened: Seattle routed Denver 43-8 after closing as a 2.5-point underdog.
Where does the line go from here?
The betting late Sunday wasn't as lopsided as last year and several people predict that Seattle will get bet back to favoritism, but it still looks more likely that the public is going to again jump on the high-scoring Patriots after more people get access to the betting line. It doesn't look like the line would go all the way to New England minus-3, though it's possible the line could continue to steam if Seattle defensive backs Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are unable to play (though they both vowed that they won't miss the Super Bowl, and both are scheduled for MRIs on Monday). We'll see how that all plays out. If one or both is out (or viewed as less than 100 percent), the total could also inch upward.
Those earlier lines notwithstanding, offshore giant Pinnacle was the first to post a Super Bowl line after the Patriots jumped out to an early lead over the Colts. Since the Seahawks had struggled before rallying to beat the Packers (but not covering the closing 8.5-point spread) 28-22 in overtime, it's not surprising that Pinny lowered Seattle to a 2-point favorite when it opened at 4:23 p.m. PT (7:23 p.m. ET, but we'll stick with Vegas/Pacific Time). BetOnline opened Seattle minus-3 after the Patriots opened up a 14-0 lead, and both stayed there for the next 100 minutes before the line started getting posted in Vegas.
Why the delay?
The Super Bowl line traditionally has opened when the second conference championship game goes final, or when its outcome is no longer in doubt. Even in the case of blowouts, the Vegas books have usually waited until the start of the fourth quarter before feeling comfortable enough to start taking Super Bowl bets. The reason for this is because, while offshore books can more easily void and refund bets taken on a matchup that doesn't end up happening, Vegas shops have the logistical problem of having early bettors needing to come back to the counter to void their tickets and get refunds. It just makes the Vegas books more leery of jumping the gun. (Imagine if the games were played in reverse order and played out the same way; there probably would have been some books that posted a New England-Green Bay line before Seattle's rally.)
Vegas books reopen their SB lines
No Vegas books had posted a line with the Patriots leading the Colts 24-7, but when Tom Bradyhit Rob Gronkowski with a 5-yard touchdown pass with 3:19 left in the third quarter to give New England a 31-7 lead, that was enough for the Westgate, which reopened at Seattle minus-2.5 at 6:13 p.m. PT. That adjustment made sense considering the Seahawks' struggles and the Patriots' dominance. Within minutes, the MGM, South Point, Wynn and CG Technology also went with Seattle minus-2.5, but the first sign of things to come was Stations opening at Seattle minus-2. Then the Patriots starting pouring it on, going up 38-7 on the Colts with 2:08 left in the third quarter.
Shortly after that, Pinnacle dropped to Seattle minus-1.5, and the first Vegas book to move off its opener was the MGM, as it dropped to minus-1.5 by 6:24 p.m. PT. The Westgate followed suit at 6:27 p.m. PT, and when the Patriots scored again to take a 45-7 lead with 10:05 to play, a lot of books started going to pick 'em.
The MGM was the first to flip the favorite, going to New England minus-1 at 6:40 p.m. PT. By the time the AFC title game ended at 7:03 p.m. PT, I reported on my Twitter feed that the consensus line in Vegas was pick 'em with an over/under of 49. While six of the 14 books on the Don Best odds screen were at pick 'em, the Boyd Gaming books had joined MGM at New England minus-1 while the Wynn and Treasure Island books were holding the line at Seattle minus-1.5. Over the next two hours, pick 'em remained the consensus with Boyd Gaming dipping to pick 'em while Station Casinos joined MGM at New England minus-1.
History repeating itself?
It's interesting to note that we saw the same thing a year ago, as reported in my Opening Line Report for Super Bowl XLVIII, as Seattle was the favorite on the advance line and opened minus-2 against Denver, and then all the early money came in on the AFC champion that won convincingly while the Seahawks had a much harder test. The line went all the way to Denver minus-3 before getting bet back down. We all know what happened: Seattle routed Denver 43-8 after closing as a 2.5-point underdog.
Where does the line go from here?
The betting late Sunday wasn't as lopsided as last year and several people predict that Seattle will get bet back to favoritism, but it still looks more likely that the public is going to again jump on the high-scoring Patriots after more people get access to the betting line. It doesn't look like the line would go all the way to New England minus-3, though it's possible the line could continue to steam if Seattle defensive backs Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are unable to play (though they both vowed that they won't miss the Super Bowl, and both are scheduled for MRIs on Monday). We'll see how that all plays out. If one or both is out (or viewed as less than 100 percent), the total could also inch upward.
got_nugs
Footballguy
I'll tail and add okc ml for a 2 to 1 payout. My Nevada line is -1.5, what could go wrong?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
OOOOOOO-VVVVVVVVVV!!!!
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
So, Florida 2h?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
WINGSSSSSSS!!!
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Rockets/Dubs u218 manana take it to the bank brohans.
modogg
Footballguy
Treynwreck3
Footballguy
Took LSU +8 2H
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Why do we like Minnie so much? Just curious is all.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
They're ####### terrible.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
well, looks like that was the smarter play. At least i only played Florida for .5 of what i played LSU
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
And speaking of Minnie, where is John with his Australian Open picks?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
The Crapitals are a joke. Love those goals surrendered with 0:04 left in the period.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
#### the Caps, seriously. Bunch of losers.
modogg
Footballguy
i decided to join you guys at the end of the 2nd period with Pens -1.5 +310..... Sometimes live betting can be fun
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JaxBill
Footballguy
i decided to join you guys at the end of the 2nd period with Pens -1.5 +310..... Sometimes live betting can be fun
modogg
Footballguy
...but most of the time it isn'ti decided to join you guys at the end of the 2nd period with Pens -1.5 +310..... Sometimes live betting can be fun
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I'm sitting here smoking a cigar with my Caps/Wings/Hawks parlay.
Caps were up 4-2 late. Lose 5-4 in a shootout.
Wings were up 4-1. Now tied 4-4.
Gambling is a blast.
Caps were up 4-2 late. Lose 5-4 in a shootout.
Wings were up 4-1. Now tied 4-4.
Gambling is a blast.
got_nugs
Footballguy
4-2 pens final i'm calling it!...but most of the time it isn'ti decided to join you guys at the end of the 2nd period with Pens -1.5 +310..... Sometimes live betting can be fun
John Bender
Footballguy
we didnt do it!
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
TNS PLZ THX!
Billy Bats
Footballguy
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
You gotta love Nebraska's mid-court logo. The very distinctive and oft-recognized rectangular outline of the state of Nebraska. Genius marketing. Who doesn't want to go see that? And/or corn.
Also, the officiating is even funnier.
Also, the officiating is even funnier.
got_nugs
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
Minnesota should have fouled at the end 
. 2-0-1 on the sides isn't too shabby i guess though. Thanks Frosty
ETA:
D-Bag on Iowa shoots a jumper with 6 seconds left while down 34 to get the push for the under on that Wiscy-Iowa game for those of us who had 132. that one was kind of funny actually
. 2-0-1 on the sides isn't too shabby i guess though. Thanks Frosty ETA:
D-Bag on Iowa shoots a jumper with 6 seconds left while down 34 to get the push for the under on that Wiscy-Iowa game for those of us who had 132. that one was kind of funny actually
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Hate the stupid Flyers.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
San Diego State is draining three pointers left and right.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Minnesota should have fouled at the end
ETA:
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Yeah that kind of screwed everything up. Shooting 27.4% from 3 on the year (14th worst in the entire country) coming into the game, shoot 13-22 in this one.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
St. John's -5.5
Northern Iowa -13
Northern Iowa -13
