What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (3 Viewers)

Frostillicus said:
Providence with three turnovers in the last 90 seconds to let Xavier tie it up and ruin what was looking like kind of an easy cover. Neat.
Click to expand...
yeah, there were quiet a few games going at once there. But i did wonder what happened. My fingers are crossed that Alabama doesn't completely lie down in OT and screw that one out of nowhere

 
Frostillicus said:
Providence with three turnovers in the last 90 seconds to let Xavier tie it up and ruin what was looking like kind of an easy cover. Neat.
Click to expand...
It was like watching a horror movie watching the gamecenter. I assume watching the actual game was worse. Don't quit on me yet Lish! (also, Bama heading into OT scary after the and 1 with .02 left in regulation down 3).

 
The thing about the Pats which is why they have been so easy to bet the props on is the obvious... Belicheat abandons the run completely vs the top rushing defenses. Even in the Detroit game, Blount only had 3 carries or so with a few minutes left in the 4th and then he ran the clock on on the last 2 drives.

They have faced all 4 out of the top 5 rushing defenses in Den, Det, NYJ, and Bal. So I was originally thinking that this could be another easy prop match-up. With the overs on Brady and WR's/Vereen receptions. The problem is that Seattle is just as good vs the pass as they are vs the run while the other teams are weak or avg vs the pass. So that eliminates the easy edge in assuming that they go straight pass the entire game. Stewart and Lacy both had success the last 2 weeks vs the run, so they may try to actually establish a running game.

[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]To the point... It looks like I could be treading lightly on the player props at least for NE[/SIZE]

 
Just glancing at their schedule it doesn't look like they played too many teams with a good rush attack, and the few that did have one had success against them

 
swirvenirvin said:
The thing about the Pats which is why they have been so easy to bet the props on is the obvious... Belicheat abandons the run completely vs the top rushing defenses. Even in the Detroit game, Blount only had 3 carries or so with a few minutes left in the 4th and then he ran the clock on on the last 2 drives.

They have faced all 4 out of the top 5 rushing defenses in Den, Det, NYJ, and Bal. So I was originally thinking that this could be another easy prop match-up. With the overs on Brady and WR's/Vereen receptions. The problem is that Seattle is just as good vs the pass as they are vs the run while the other teams are weak or avg vs the pass. So that eliminates the easy edge in assuming that they go straight pass the entire game. Stewart and Lacy both had success the last 2 weeks vs the run, so they may try to actually establish a running game.

[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]To the point... It looks like I could be treading lightly on the player props at least for NE[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
DET has a good run/good pass defense, and the split there was 53 pass attempts to 20 run attempts, although Blount had a decent game against them.

 
The number I can't get away from, and it's a big one, is that Seattle has averaged 5.9 yards per play on offense, and have allowed 4.6 on defense. NE is 5.5 and 5.3, a much smaller spread, and worse on both sides of the ball. That didn't result in a massive difference in point differential, I wonder if that's a result of clustering?

 
Good Posting Judge said:
swirvenirvin said:
The thing about the Pats which is why they have been so easy to bet the props on is the obvious... Belicheat abandons the run completely vs the top rushing defenses. Even in the Detroit game, Blount only had 3 carries or so with a few minutes left in the 4th and then he ran the clock on on the last 2 drives.

They have faced all 4 out of the top 5 rushing defenses in Den, Det, NYJ, and Bal. So I was originally thinking that this could be another easy prop match-up. With the overs on Brady and WR's/Vereen receptions. The problem is that Seattle is just as good vs the pass as they are vs the run while the other teams are weak or avg vs the pass. So that eliminates the easy edge in assuming that they go straight pass the entire game. Stewart and Lacy both had success the last 2 weeks vs the run, so they may try to actually establish a running game.

[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]To the point... It looks like I could be treading lightly on the player props at least for NE[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
DET has a good run/good pass defense, and the split there was 53 pass attempts to 20 run attempts, although Blount had a decent game against them.
Click to expand...
Det is ranked middle of the road at 15th in passing yards allowed at 4000, while Sea is #1 at 3200. Brady picked them apart. Blount did all of his damage running out the clock with 5 minutes left. I think I will very likely make the plays towards them passing more, just have to be careful.

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Just glancing at their schedule it doesn't look like they played too many teams with a good rush attack, and the few that did have one had success against them
Click to expand...
Hawks?

Yeah thats just it although numbers wise it appears their pass defense is the stronger of the 2

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Raider Nation said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
New favorite hated sports announcer: Mr. Dramatic, Tessatore

Guy LOVES his own voice and thinks he's Al Michaels believing in miracles every other minute.
Click to expand...
Tell me you didn't puke when Millen used to call him "Tess" every 5 seconds.
Click to expand...
Oh I know you know I did. I went on and on about it like I was, well, TESS.

Those two together are up there with the worst "teams" ever. They shoulda crammed Theisman in that booth just for kicks.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Good Posting Judge said:
swirvenirvin said:
The thing about the Pats which is why they have been so easy to bet the props on is the obvious... Belicheat abandons the run completely vs the top rushing defenses. Even in the Detroit game, Blount only had 3 carries or so with a few minutes left in the 4th and then he ran the clock on on the last 2 drives.

They have faced all 4 out of the top 5 rushing defenses in Den, Det, NYJ, and Bal. So I was originally thinking that this could be another easy prop match-up. With the overs on Brady and WR's/Vereen receptions. The problem is that Seattle is just as good vs the pass as they are vs the run while the other teams are weak or avg vs the pass. So that eliminates the easy edge in assuming that they go straight pass the entire game. Stewart and Lacy both had success the last 2 weeks vs the run, so they may try to actually establish a running game.

[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]To the point... It looks like I could be treading lightly on the player props at least for NE[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
DET has a good run/good pass defense, and the split there was 53 pass attempts to 20 run attempts, although Blount had a decent game against them.
Click to expand...
Det is ranked middle of the road at 15th in passing yards allowed at 4000, while Sea is #1 at 3200. Brady picked them apart. Blount did all of his damage running out the clock with 5 minutes left. I think I will very likely make the plays towards them passing more, just have to be careful.
Click to expand...
Ah, I was looking at net yards per attempt, where DET ranks 6th.

 
This seems like something that would be mentioned, right?

SPECIAL (NE @ SEA) - Will it be mentioned during the game that Pete Carroll was the last head coach of the Patriots?

6:30p​
Yes
+110​
​
No
-150​

 
Will Barack want to avoid picking the cheaters for PR reasons?

SPECIAL (NE @ SEA) - Who will Barack Obama pick to win the game?
Must publicly announce pick before kickoff. Any wager placed after this becomes public knowledge will be graded as No Action. Book Manager's decision is final. NO OVERLIMITS
6:30p​
Seattle
EVEN​
​
New England
-140​
​

 
Tiger Fan said:
RE: Katy Perry opener "Roar". A simple google reveals that 87/88 (ignoring setlists that were strinkingly short/empty) times in 2014 she opened with "Roar" and she closed with "Firework" all 88 times. Why would Firework have such close odds to "Roar"?

http://www.setlist.fm/stats/average-setlist/katy-perry-2bd6bc42.html?year=2014
Click to expand...
I wonder if it has something to do with the Bengals using "Roar" as their warm-up song and then everyone complained it wasn't manly enough so they axed that

 
Are there any late leans in here from earlier in the thread that I'm too lazy to go back and read, help a brother out. So ####### board I fished the ball thread just now. :bag:

LOFL @ Bill Walton Bingo!

 
swirvenirvin said:
The thing about the Pats which is why they have been so easy to bet the props on is the obvious... Belicheat abandons the run completely vs the top rushing defenses. Even in the Detroit game, Blount only had 3 carries or so with a few minutes left in the 4th and then he ran the clock on on the last 2 drives.

They have faced all 4 out of the top 5 rushing defenses in Den, Det, NYJ, and Bal. So I was originally thinking that this could be another easy prop match-up. With the overs on Brady and WR's/Vereen receptions. The problem is that Seattle is just as good vs the pass as they are vs the run while the other teams are weak or avg vs the pass. So that eliminates the easy edge in assuming that they go straight pass the entire game. Stewart and Lacy both had success the last 2 weeks vs the run, so they may try to actually establish a running game.

[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]To the point... It looks like I could be treading lightly on the player props at least for NE[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
Blount is 9:1 to score first TD. Even in the Detroit game, while the game was still "close" NE got inside the 10 four times. They ran the ball on the first play inside the 10 3/4 times. :shrug:

 
tjnc09 said:
Tiger Fan said:
RE: Katy Perry opener "Roar". A simple google reveals that 87/88 (ignoring setlists that were strinkingly short/empty) times in 2014 she opened with "Roar" and she closed with "Firework" all 88 times. Why would Firework have such close odds to "Roar"?

http://www.setlist.fm/stats/average-setlist/katy-perry-2bd6bc42.html?year=2014
Click to expand...
I wonder if it has something to do with the Bengals using "Roar" as their warm-up song and then everyone complained it wasn't manly enough so they axed that
Click to expand...
interesting to a point...but getting Katy Perry to play isn't "manly" at all. The men will be tuning in to see her shake her tats. Could care less about what she sings.

 
This whole ball thing is ridiculous. Yeah, they cheated. Get over it. Blount ran over them like they were a cardboard fence. Godell is NOT going to rule on this and risk tarnishing his multi-billion dollar world wide event.

Voila! After the SB, the NFL suddenly determines that the Patriots cheated, AGAIN, and they likely get a slap on the wrist. Maybe a draft pick. Integrity means crap when you control that type of money.

 
Tiger Fan said:
swirvenirvin said:
The thing about the Pats which is why they have been so easy to bet the props on is the obvious... Belicheat abandons the run completely vs the top rushing defenses. Even in the Detroit game, Blount only had 3 carries or so with a few minutes left in the 4th and then he ran the clock on on the last 2 drives.

They have faced all 4 out of the top 5 rushing defenses in Den, Det, NYJ, and Bal. So I was originally thinking that this could be another easy prop match-up. With the overs on Brady and WR's/Vereen receptions. The problem is that Seattle is just as good vs the pass as they are vs the run while the other teams are weak or avg vs the pass. So that eliminates the easy edge in assuming that they go straight pass the entire game. Stewart and Lacy both had success the last 2 weeks vs the run, so they may try to actually establish a running game.

[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]To the point... It looks like I could be treading lightly on the player props at least for NE[/SIZE]
Click to expand...
Blount is 9:1 to score first TD. Even in the Detroit game, while the game was still "close" NE got inside the 10 four times. They ran the ball on the first play inside the 10 3/4 times. :shrug:
Click to expand...
yeah if they get down there he will still be getting the rock

 
Treynwreck3 said:
This whole ball thing is ridiculous. Yeah, they cheated. Get over it. Blount ran over them like they were a cardboard fence. Godell is NOT going to rule on this and risk tarnishing his multi-billion dollar world wide event.

Voila! After the SB, the NFL suddenly determines that the Patriots cheated, AGAIN, and they likely get a slap on the wrist. Maybe a draft pick. Integrity means crap when you control that type of money.
Click to expand...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7_G2IBIYAAXDAo.jpg

 
Raider Nation said:
Treynwreck3 said:
This whole ball thing is ridiculous. Yeah, they cheated. Get over it. Blount ran over them like they were a cardboard fence. Godell is NOT going to rule on this and risk tarnishing his multi-billion dollar world wide event.

Voila! After the SB, the NFL suddenly determines that the Patriots cheated, AGAIN, and they likely get a slap on the wrist. Maybe a draft pick. Integrity means crap when you control that type of money.
Click to expand...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7_G2IBIYAAXDAo.jpg
Click to expand...
THEY REALLY PUT THAT OUT THERE?! HAHAHA

 
Raider Nation said:
Treynwreck3 said:
This whole ball thing is ridiculous. Yeah, they cheated. Get over it. Blount ran over them like they were a cardboard fence. Godell is NOT going to rule on this and risk tarnishing his multi-billion dollar world wide event.

Voila! After the SB, the NFL suddenly determines that the Patriots cheated, AGAIN, and they likely get a slap on the wrist. Maybe a draft pick. Integrity means crap when you control that type of money.
Click to expand...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7_G2IBIYAAXDAo.jpg
Click to expand...
That's what she said! /MichaelScott

 
Mrs. Frosty believes that Perry always opening with Roar means there's no way she opens with it for the Super Bowl because "it's not just a concert, it's the Super Bowl." She thinks it will be Firework because "that's the perfect song to open up with at the Super Bowl. Can't you just see her singing it while all the fireworks and crap go off to open the show?" so I got money on that too. Listening to it just now the broad has a point, it would be a great opener.

 
Went into the command tent today and there was an awful smell, my co-worker pointed out the body bags.

I need to find a new line of work. Maybe sell whole life insurance? Any moron can do that right?

 
swirvenirvin said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Just glancing at their schedule it doesn't look like they played too many teams with a good rush attack, and the few that did have one had success against them
Click to expand...
Hawks?Yeah thats just it although numbers wise it appears their pass defense is the stronger of the 2
Click to expand...
Just had a nice writeup and hit the wrong button

Summary

Hawks Run D not as good as stats show

KC, Dallas, GB had success

Crappy teams like Oakland, Arizona, DENVER with Ball, busted up NYG, philly with Sanchize did not

Basically look at the construction of teams at the time they played them

I think NE try's to run and find Vereen and Edelman on short routes. LaFell probably gets sacrificed to Sherman. Gronk xfactor to me...if Seattle game plans to shut him down does Brady force it or look elsewhere

 
Frostillicus said:
Mrs. Frosty believes that Perry always opening with Roar means there's no way she opens with it for the Super Bowl because "it's not just a concert, it's the Super Bowl." She thinks it will be Firework because "that's the perfect song to open up with at the Super Bowl. Can't you just see her singing it while all the fireworks and crap go off to open the show?" so I got money on that too. Listening to it just now the broad has a point, it would be a great opener.
Click to expand...
It's also a perfect reason for it to be a great closer. Fireworks are for grand finales.

 
Tiger Fan said:
Frostillicus said:
Mrs. Frosty believes that Perry always opening with Roar means there's no way she opens with it for the Super Bowl because "it's not just a concert, it's the Super Bowl." She thinks it will be Firework because "that's the perfect song to open up with at the Super Bowl. Can't you just see her singing it while all the fireworks and crap go off to open the show?" so I got money on that too. Listening to it just now the broad has a point, it would be a great opener.
Click to expand...
It's also a perfect reason for it to be a great closer. Fireworks are for grand finales.
Click to expand...
This...who wants all that smoke floating around during the whole show

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ministry of Pain
Texas floods
2
Replies
59
Views
3K
fatness
fatness
scorchy
Any banking guys that can offer solutions to a vexing issue?
Replies
31
Views
539
Mrs. Rannous
Mrs. Rannous
BLOCKED_PUNT
list index
Replies
16
Views
622
El Floppo
El Floppo

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 3 (members: 0, guests: 3)
Back
Top