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FFA Wagering Thread: THERE HE IS!@! (8 Viewers)

Dan Lambskin said:
swirvenirvin said:
Dan Lambskin said:
Just glancing at their schedule it doesn't look like they played too many teams with a good rush attack, and the few that did have one had success against them
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Hawks?Yeah thats just it although numbers wise it appears their pass defense is the stronger of the 2
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Just had a nice writeup and hit the wrong button

Summary

Hawks Run D not as good as stats show

KC, Dallas, GB had success

Crappy teams like Oakland, Arizona, DENVER with Ball, busted up NYG, philly with Sanchize did not

Basically look at the construction of teams at the time they played them

I think NE try's to run and find Vereen and Edelman on short routes. LaFell probably gets sacrificed to Sherman. Gronk xfactor to me...if Seattle game plans to shut him down does Brady force it or look elsewhere
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I conversed a bit with Mike Clay via twitter and asked him why he thought Pats would try to establish run early.

One note he had was that based on the Adjusted for game flow, Seattle has a 57 percent preferred pass rate against – second-lowest in the NFL, and that opponents game-planned to run the ball against Seattle, but they were forced to throw as a result of trailing in the game.

 
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Tiger Fan said:
Thoughts on how this looks for viewing the SB props? I'll take the responsibility of entering them in. Anyone who has the link can view

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e8fPsal-HSKp75Sm1G5j-OvrwD8gfB0oaJriQ-ppUt8/edit?usp=sharing
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http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=516869&p=17712241

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=516869&p=17710643

would it be easier to just make it so anyone can edit or would that get too messy/complicated?

 
TheGooRoo said:
Dan Lambskin said:
http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/t/1152828.aspx

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Posted on Thu, Jan 22 2015 12:19 PM

The Vig on props is ridiculous and anyone betting serious money on them is nuts, I will do a few for ha ha's no more than $25 per bet

:lmao:
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That was the view of nearly every FFA wagering thread guys back in the day. I remember getting so frustrating in trying to convince guys that props WERE NOT SUCKER BETS!!!!!!!1
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I remember culdeus was a big anti-prop guy.

 
GPJ had some analysis on under 44.5 longest TD, first penalty, and something else that I forgot that GR said to wait on as it would drop.

also I liked the under 3 mentioned on "deflate" but it maye keep moving at better odds to could be better to wait also.

 
Peyton Marino said:
Tiger Fan said:
Thoughts on how this looks for viewing the SB props? I'll take the responsibility of entering them in. Anyone who has the link can view

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1e8fPsal-HSKp75Sm1G5j-OvrwD8gfB0oaJriQ-ppUt8/edit?usp=sharing
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http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=516869&p=17712241http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=516869&p=17710643

would it be easier to just make it so anyone can edit or would that get too messy/complicated?
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lets see how it goes for now. If it gets too much for me I'll open it up. Just want to avoid people messing the sheet up inadvertantly

 
I know this has been covered before, but i forget who it was.

Looking for a house right now and most of my withdrawals and deposits are gambling related. Should I be concerned when it goes to underwriting? For the most part, they are Chase Quickpay transactions if that makes a difference.

 
jamil said:
I know this has been covered before, but i forget who it was.

Looking for a house right now and most of my withdrawals and deposits are gambling related. Should I be concerned when it goes to underwriting? For the most part, they are Chase Quickpay transactions if that makes a difference.
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Deposits draw attention, much more than withdrawals. The most they will likely require is a letter. Just tell them that you trade knives or something akin to a hobby. Not a big deal.

 
jamil said:
I know this has been covered before, but i forget who it was.

Looking for a house right now and most of my withdrawals and deposits are gambling related. Should I be concerned when it goes to underwriting? For the most part, they are Chase Quickpay transactions if that makes a difference.
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I provided screenshots of the sportsbooks cashier pages to show where the money was coming from. I would not lie and make #### up if you're serious about the house. The banks/mortgage companies don't care that you're gambling, they just need the source of the money.

 
Nice prop hit Truck! About 6 minutes in you kinda knew it wouldn't be close to losing.

I'm really looking forward to OKC in Atlanta tonight. Bulls on a b2b traveling from Chicago to Dallas. Same w/ SA traveling to LA. Miami/Indy-will Whiteside play? Some good stuff tonight in the Association.

eta

Whiteside is a game time decision. Wade not feeling well, also game time decision. Deng here, feels better.
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Lump -

Caught up on challenge?

Sad episode and kind of a boring season now.

Also, sorry Frosty, but Sarah looks beat. What's the wrinkles on her face and that hairdo? :X

 
John Bender said:
Lump -

Caught up on challenge?

Sad episode and kind of a boring season now.

Also, sorry Frosty, but Sarah looks beat. What's the wrinkles on her face and that hairdo? :X
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Watched it last night....I didn't realize Diem was actually on the challenge when the cancer made it's comeback, brutal.

Highlight was during the elimination when simone yelled out 3. So dumb.

Sarah's on her 8th challenge :shock: She does look a bit weathered for a 27 year old

 
lumpy19 said:
John Bender said:
Lump -

Caught up on challenge?

Sad episode and kind of a boring season now.

Also, sorry Frosty, but Sarah looks beat. What's the wrinkles on her face and that hairdo? :X
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Watched it last night....I didn't realize Diem was actually on the challenge when the cancer made it's comeback, brutal.

Highlight was during the elimination when simone yelled out 3. So dumb.

Sarah's on her 8th challenge :shock: She does look a bit weathered for a 27 year old
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She needs a make up artist and a hair stylist.

She always looks like it's 6 AM and she just got out of the shower.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Tiger Fan said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Russell Wilson TD's (1.5) over Sidney Crosby points (NSH) (0.9 to 1.0)

Delon Wright points (USC) (15) over Seahawks 1H points (12)

Arsenal/Aston Villa goals (2.8) over Tom Brady TD passes (1.8) -0.5 -130

Ovechkin SOG (4.8 - 4.9)) over Baldwin receptions (4.2)

A much tougher x-sport card than last year, imo. Hopefully there'll be more.
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you're just posting the card right? these aren't actual plays?
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I'm playing those, there are a lot more avail, it looks like.
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TF, I added in the projected numbers I have for all of these. Some of the differences don't look that big, but I've Poisson Calculator'ed them all to make sure that there was sufficient +EV. 1.5 is 50% more than 1, after all. I used betting lines that are already available for the props, and did some simple capping of my own for Ovechkin, Wright, Crosby, etc.

The Blount rushing attempts vs. minutes in length of the Diaz (???) MMA fight is an interesting one. It seems like the beginning of rounds (e.g. minutes 6-7, minutes 11-12, etc.) would be "dead spots", but I don't know if that matters. Looks like it's projected for about 3 5 minute rounds, and Blount's on pace for about 14 attempts.

 
John Bender said:
lumpy19 said:
John Bender said:
Lump -

Caught up on challenge?

Sad episode and kind of a boring season now.

Also, sorry Frosty, but Sarah looks beat. What's the wrinkles on her face and that hairdo? :X
Click to expand...
Watched it last night....I didn't realize Diem was actually on the challenge when the cancer made it's comeback, brutal.

Highlight was during the elimination when simone yelled out 3. So dumb.

Sarah's on her 8th challenge :shock: She does look a bit weathered for a 27 year old
Click to expand...
She needs a make up artist and a hair stylist.

She always looks like it's 6 AM and she just got out of the shower.
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HOT!

 
regularguy said:
Aaron Rudnicki said:
regularguy said:
What about the tackle props? Do we know what crew will be working the game? Arizona?
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are they posted?
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At Bovada and SB. No telling how long it will take 5dimes to post them. I don't think sportsbetting has them yet either.
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Here's what I see at both places:

Bovada

Collins 8.5 (-115)

Chung 5.5 (-115)

Ninkovich 4.5 (-115)

Hightower 7.5 (-115)

McCourty 4.5 (U -130)

Revis 2.5 (O -130)

Wilfork 2.5 (O -130)

Wagner 9.5 (-115)

Chancellor 6.5 (O -130)

Wright 6.5 (O -130)

Thomas 5.5 (O -130)

Sherman 3.5 (-115)

SBook

Collins 8.5 (O -130)

Hightower 7.5 (U -130)

Chung 5.5 (U -160)

Ninkovich 3.5 (O -160)

McCourty 4.0 (-115)

Wagner 9.5 (O -130)

Thomas 6.0 (U -130)

Chancellor 7 (U -155)

Sherman 3.5 (O -130)

Wright 6.5 (-115)

I can't bet at one and can only bet $5/prop at the other, so haven't dug into them too much. My initial thought is that the game will be scored by the Arizona crew, which gives out few assists and ranks near the bottom in tackles awarded per opportunity. I also think both offenses are probably going to be more effective running than passing, which should help shorten the game a bit.

I'm sort of leaning towards playing unders across the board based on that logic. Will have to look into it a bit more though. Would normally like to play the over for Collins going up against the Seattle running game, but the Arizona crew gives out so few assists that it might be pretty tough to get him up to 9+.

 
NBA

Hawks -4

Tor/Phi under 195

Hou/Phx over 220

Mavs -6 1/2

1/2 unit plays:

Suns -2 1/2

Warriors -15 1/2

Orl/NYK over 207 1/2

Chi/Dal under 205

 
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When the total is ≥ 210 the Suns are 15-7 SU and 13-8-1 ATS (avg line -1.5) with an O/U of 16-6. As the favorite when the total is ≥ 210 the Suns are 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS (avg line -5.6) with an O/U of 10-4. Those totals went 9-1 to the over when they were lined ≥ 213. Sagarin says this should be a pick'em, so the 2.5 is luring dudes in, with a little more than seven out of every 10 bets coming in on Houston. Due to the blackout laws I only get the local feed so it's going to be Houston dudes calling the game, and I dislike having to listen to the other (losing) side of what I'm on, so even though Suns ATS is the play (it will go to 2.0 later) I'm just going to join you on the total. I rode the bike at the gym today for about an hour and afterward the housekeeper took me aside and showed me a porno starring the very woman who had been riding next to me. I placed the over at Bovada just now.

Rockets/Suns o220 -115

 
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