I think "you either build a redraft team with Bowers or you lose" is a plausible reality. In dynasty whoever has him is possibly the team to beat. McBride and LaPorta and some others are going to be worthy second tier acquisitions but when I used to speak of Kelce being the single biggest advantage in FF, now it's Bowers. Certainly in our TEP formats anyway but probably universally.
I'd pump the brakes on that one, barackd. Here's a counterpoint. It's a new coach and a new system coming to Las Vegas. A TEs usage volume is really susceptible to coaching preferences. Sneaky Pete Carroll loves to do two things: run the ball and to have his TEs block for those RBs. That right there should give one pause.
There's also competition for touches to consider. The Raiders’ running game last year was ineffective and was so bad that it was nonexistent. The Raiders were 32nd in rushing last year in per game yards, which placed them dead last in the league. So Las Vegas will likely be bringing in an RB from somewhere in the draft from a group of RBs that PFF has graded as an A+ class. If they don't draft one in the first round from the sixth position (a ton of mocks have mocked Ashton Jeanty there), then they will almost assuredly draft one in the later rounds, which means two new players potentially ascending the RB depth chart in Las Vegas (Raheem Mostert and the draft pick). So already you're talking about competition for touches where Bowers had absolutely none last year from the backfield. That immediately takes away some of his behind-the-line of scrimmage jet sweeps/carries and some of his designed catches coming from pick plays and screens.
When thinking about WR, outside of Jakobi Meyers—who is a good WR2 but not a burner athlete like Bowers is—there was also no competition last year for touches. There likely will be this year, although if they don't draft a WR until late, or even if they sign a veteran, I don't see either of those circumstances as really deleterious to Bowers's catching the ball or his volume downfield, so that's a little more muted. But there's no doubt their WR room was poor last year, and if they draft one in the first or second round of this draft, then you're looking at stiff competition for the ball. Again, a potential and likely decrease in touches or designed plays.
In addition, I think that much like Jonnu Smith and Miami's almost inexplicable change in strategy to throw the ball short and to the tight end so that he might run with it, the short game the Raiders played with Bowers last year might be an aberration and it likely won't happen as much again this year. One factor that helped Bowers have such a volume of shorter plays (aside from the fact that he's a great athlete) is that last year it was apparent that neither of the Raiders QBs had much arm strength. Gardner Minshew's is comically bad, and Aidan O'Connell was limited in that regard. So not only were short, designed plays going to Bowers, but checkdowns were also going to him because Minshew and O'Connell couldn't drive the ball far enough or get the ball downfield under pressure. Bowers became an intermediate and short outlet.
So to sum it all up, Bowers is an incredible talent, but I can't imagine old school Pete is going to use him like Antonio Pierce did when Pete's going to have other guys to get touches to and Geno Smith to throw them or hand them off. Pierce had absolutely no weapons to speak of and quarterbacks with noodle arms. Carroll is not presented with that problem, and the strong-armed Geno is night and day from the two aforementioned QBs. Therefore, I don't think that the "premium" part of TEP where the scores go bonkers and which comes from the amount of catches alone, will be as significant this year as it was last year.
To wit, look at Sam LaPorta's 2024 stats compared to his 2023 stats. Twenty-six less catches and over one hundred and fifty fewer yards. He also had three less touchdowns. (I think the drop in TDs is just typical variance and noise, but still.) This is likely all because Jameson Williams becomes an every-day player, Gibbs demands more touches, and there's a similar pie to go around. We saw LaPorta's fantasy production drop at a pretty good clip.
I'm not saying that a drop in production will be the end result for Bowers (who knows?) but formulating an entire strategy around one guy for fifty or so fantasy squads, or overpaying to acquire Bowers in dynasty—I mean, he's the most valuable player in my dynasty league according to FBG, so you're going to overpay and overpay dearly by the very nature of it—when the situation on his own team has changed drastically from last year might not work. Bowers might not be as far-and-away dwarfing everybody nor as ultimately foundational as we think.
I think he'll be good. I just don't know if he's going to make it so one has to re-write their mental rules about dynasty or redraft to compete with the teams that have him, as you seem to be suggesting.
Anyway, this was just spitballing and fun to write. Best of luck, barack. Catch you as the season gets closer.