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Find me a home team to bet on this week (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I can't find one decent play for a home team this week. I like the road team in almost every match up. I'm sure some of you will find a few but I can't find a single one I would want to bet with confidence.

 
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that's why i said at the chargers and no cleveland is not the play, but every other home team is basically like playing pick um or i just like the away team better

 
'Peeps Inc. said:
that's why i said at the chargers and no cleveland is not the play, but every other home team is basically like playing pick um or i just like the away team better
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i kinda like seattle plus three but i just can't bring myself to do it
 
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I don't think the Bengals will be that great of a team this year. RG3's home debut should be a success. Even with the defensive injuries, I think Washington wins by 10+.

 
'Ministry of Pain said:
I can't find one decent play for a home team this week. I like the road team in almost every match up. I'm sure some of you will find a few but I can't find a single one I would want to bet with confidence.
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You do realize the scrub refs have been suckers for home cookin so far, right?HTH
 
'BRONG said:
'Ministry of Pain said:
I can't find one decent play for a home team this week. I like the road team in almost every match up. I'm sure some of you will find a few but I can't find a single one I would want to bet with confidence.
Click to expand...
You do realize the scrub refs have been suckers for home cookin so far, right?HTH
Click to expand...
You realize it's something like .1 additional penalties per game against the visitors relative to what the real refs called.
 
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'BassNBrew said:
'BRONG said:
'Ministry of Pain said:
I can't find one decent play for a home team this week. I like the road team in almost every match up. I'm sure some of you will find a few but I can't find a single one I would want to bet with confidence.
Click to expand...
You do realize the scrub refs have been suckers for home cookin so far, right?HTH
Click to expand...
You realize it's something like .1 additional penalties per game against the visitors relative to what the real refs called.
Click to expand...
Every little big call helps I guess. HTHGB.
 
I think I would go with the Seahawks. Awful hard place to win, Greg Jennings out, team not as strong as last year, especially without Jennings in the line-up. Don't forget the loud crowd noise is very disruptive to opposing teams audibles and snap count. Also, the Seahawks defense, especially the "BOOM" back 4 are head hunters. I think this game is easy money. And Cedric Benson? He will get less than 30 total yards. BOOK IT.

 
As a Bengals fan, i am all over Washington on this game. RG3 is going to embarass the Bengals secondary. They are beyond terrible.

 
'SofaCoach said:
I like Indy at home vs Jacksonville.
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This. I am a homer, but the Colts are playing well and consecutive weeks at home bodes well for them. Plus, it appears Collie is a go which should make the offense click even more. I see the Colts by 10 here.
 
the NFL sports betting market is so efficient that by this time in the week nearly every line is going to be between 48-52% likely to win/lose. What ends up happening when people bet sports is their cognitive biases lead them to value select factors/variables over others, so they think one side is a "good bet." Then they make the bet, and due to the variance of such a small sample size(You'd need to make 5000+ bets before having any clue if you're actually a winner, or you'd have to have a solid record against closing lines over 1000+ bets) they become overly results oriented- so when they go on a heater, they think they have some mystical ability to "beat Vegas" when in reality its just them flipping a coin a bunch of times, landing on heads more than tails, and thinking that they are good at landing on heads.

Cliffs: Just pick a side randomly if you want to have a rooting interest.

 
Also you should absolutely disregard anyone's advice who ever says something like:

"_____ is a lock"

"______ will destroy ______(when the spread is relatively close)"

"_____ wins by two TDs(when the spread is 3)"

Trust people who give advice along the lines of:

"The line for this game is _______. I think that line is off by maybe 1-1.5 points in _____ direction. I feel this way because _______, and I feel the sports betting market is not seeing what I"m seeing because _________. Therefore I feel that if you can find _______% juice, you will have _______% edge on this game."

As for me, I'm a pro poker player who has given pro sports betting a very legitimate shot, putting in a ton of hours to learn(not just sitting on my couch watching sports, but actually putting in 100+ hours of work that wasn't fun at all in order to try to educate myself). I'm down rather large lifetime, and I absolutely cannot beat the NFL betting market.Of course I still make a few smaller bets just for fun(but I don't delude myself into thinking that I can spot "good bets" just from casually watching games each week).

 
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'Assani Fisher said:
the NFL sports betting market is so efficient that by this time in the week nearly every line is going to be between 48-52% likely to win/lose. What ends up happening when people bet sports is their cognitive biases lead them to value select factors/variables over others, so they think one side is a "good bet." Then they make the bet, and due to the variance of such a small sample size(You'd need to make 5000+ bets before having any clue if you're actually a winner, or you'd have to have a solid record against closing lines over 1000+ bets) they become overly results oriented- so when they go on a heater, they think they have some mystical ability to "beat Vegas" when in reality its just them flipping a coin a bunch of times, landing on heads more than tails, and thinking that they are good at landing on heads.Cliffs: Just pick a side randomly if you want to have a rooting interest.
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other than it beats public money given 10% juice, why do you think the vegas line is that efficient?
 
'Voice Of Reason said:
'Assani Fisher said:
the NFL sports betting market is so efficient that by this time in the week nearly every line is going to be between 48-52% likely to win/lose. What ends up happening when people bet sports is their cognitive biases lead them to value select factors/variables over others, so they think one side is a "good bet." Then they make the bet, and due to the variance of such a small sample size(You'd need to make 5000+ bets before having any clue if you're actually a winner, or you'd have to have a solid record against closing lines over 1000+ bets) they become overly results oriented- so when they go on a heater, they think they have some mystical ability to "beat Vegas" when in reality its just them flipping a coin a bunch of times, landing on heads more than tails, and thinking that they are good at landing on heads.Cliffs: Just pick a side randomly if you want to have a rooting interest.
Click to expand...
other than it beats public money given 10% juice, why do you think the vegas line is that efficient?
Click to expand...
Not sure I'm completely understanding the question, but I"ll try to answer...Theres a reason why many sportsbooks will run promotions such as "5% juice on Fridays"- Every winning sports bettor I've ever met either bets on opening lines(literally within minutes of them coming out), or they actually influence the lines to their liking and manipulate the system. The latter is far beyond any of our means(or bankrolls), so if you wish to have a chance at winning longterm you need to be doing the former.The one +EV sports betting venture I ever had was when I was a part of a group that developed(mostly others, I did very little actual work on this) a NBA computer simulation. It took about 3 years for our group to write this program. With this program we were able to bet on opening NBA totals as soon as they came out, and eek out a 1-2% ROI. We knew we were beating the market not just because we were winning money but because we had a good record against closing lines. Of course, after a few weeks, sportsbooks started cutting of our action or stopped letting us bet on overnight NBA totals(withholding the lines from us until the following day).To answer your question: Its not just that "Vegas" is that efficient. Its the combination of Vegas' opening lines being very close to efficient and then all the sharps immediately jumping on any line that is off, the books quickly adjusting their lines, and the market then being so efficient that the juice will make up for any degree off from 50%/50% the line is. I guess I would ask you in return- what makes you feel that the market wouldn't be efficient?(I'm assuming you feel this way due to your question, apologies if I'm reading too much into that though)
 
'Assani Fisher said:
'Voice Of Reason said:
'Assani Fisher said:
the NFL sports betting market is so efficient that by this time in the week nearly every line is going to be between 48-52% likely to win/lose. What ends up happening when people bet sports is their cognitive biases lead them to value select factors/variables over others, so they think one side is a "good bet." Then they make the bet, and due to the variance of such a small sample size(You'd need to make 5000+ bets before having any clue if you're actually a winner, or you'd have to have a solid record against closing lines over 1000+ bets) they become overly results oriented- so when they go on a heater, they think they have some mystical ability to "beat Vegas" when in reality its just them flipping a coin a bunch of times, landing on heads more than tails, and thinking that they are good at landing on heads.Cliffs: Just pick a side randomly if you want to have a rooting interest.
Click to expand...
other than it beats public money given 10% juice, why do you think the vegas line is that efficient?
Click to expand...
Not sure I'm completely understanding the question, but I"ll try to answer...Theres a reason why many sportsbooks will run promotions such as "5% juice on Fridays"- Every winning sports bettor I've ever met either bets on opening lines(literally within minutes of them coming out), or they actually influence the lines to their liking and manipulate the system. The latter is far beyond any of our means(or bankrolls), so if you wish to have a chance at winning longterm you need to be doing the former.The one +EV sports betting venture I ever had was when I was a part of a group that developed(mostly others, I did very little actual work on this) a NBA computer simulation. It took about 3 years for our group to write this program. With this program we were able to bet on opening NBA totals as soon as they came out, and eek out a 1-2% ROI. We knew we were beating the market not just because we were winning money but because we had a good record against closing lines. Of course, after a few weeks, sportsbooks started cutting of our action or stopped letting us bet on overnight NBA totals(withholding the lines from us until the following day).To answer your question: Its not just that "Vegas" is that efficient. Its the combination of Vegas' opening lines being very close to efficient and then all the sharps immediately jumping on any line that is off, the books quickly adjusting their lines, and the market then being so efficient that the juice will make up for any degree off from 50%/50% the line is. I guess I would ask you in return- what makes you feel that the market wouldn't be efficient?(I'm assuming you feel this way due to your question, apologies if I'm reading too much into that though)
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you threw out a number of 48-52% within the actual odds and i was curious as to why you came up with small of a range then said it would take 5K+ bets to find out if you were a true winner.is there any historical data on how teams that the market values (i.e. shifts the line towards them vs the opening line) do ATS? i assume the market would win long term because of line shifts to due to new information, but i'd give an indication if the market does move the lines in the correct direction.
 
i'd assume the stock market is more efficient than the sports betting market. as i assume there are much more resources devoted towards that market and there is only 1 "opening line" for stocks. top investors claim they can beat the market for greater than 2% so that would be one reason i'm skeptical of the sports betting market being that super efficient.

 
'ScottyDog said:
I think I would go with the Seahawks. Awful hard place to win, Greg Jennings out, team not as strong as last year, especially without Jennings in the line-up. Don't forget the loud crowd noise is very disruptive to opposing teams audibles and snap count. Also, the Seahawks defense, especially the "BOOM" back 4 are head hunters. I think this game is easy money. And Cedric Benson? He will get less than 30 total yards. BOOK IT.
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You would bet big money on the Seahawks?
 
'ImTheScientist said:
Seahawks
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Seahawks beat down the Cowboys, to the surprise of no one.This week is different. The nice story coming out of the northwest is about to dry up. I wouldn't bet on Seattle this weekend against GB.I'd actually go with NO. They can't possibly go 0-3 against KC....can they?
 
'scrumptrulescent said:
'ImTheScientist said:
Seahawks
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Seahawks beat down the Cowboys, to the surprise of no one.This week is different. The nice story coming out of the northwest is about to dry up. I wouldn't bet on Seattle this weekend against GB.I'd actually go with NO. They can't possibly go 0-3 against KC....can they?
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No one is talking about them going 0-3 ... talking about covering the spread, cuz i doubt it's a "pick em"
 
VoR,

Those are interesting questions, but I'm probably not knowledgeable enough to say for sure(and if anyone ITT claims to know more than me and says that I'm wrong about something, I would have no issue trusting them). I think the stock market is probably a very accurate comparison. The 48-52% was for non-opening NFL lines(and I just came up with those %s off the top of my head). When top sports bettors bet opening lines I'm sure they can hit in the 52-57% range. And the lesser popular the sport, the easier it is to beat. NFL is by far the toughest sports betting market though, so I wouldn't be surprised if its even tougher than the stock market. Sports like WNBA or small conference college sports are definitely easier to beat. Also let me say that I gave up sports betting seriously over 3 years ago, so its very possible any info I give is outdated.

Anyway, I'm nitting things up a bit. To actually contribute to the thread with my homer-influenced thoughts: I'd go with Washington -3. The Redskins have not yet played a home game, and Redskins fans are as excited as they've been since 1991 due to RG3. I wouldn't be surprised if that gives them a bigger than usual HFA. Its expected to be a shootout(total is 49), so it could easily be a close game yet still end with a largish margin of victory for the winning team. Pierre Garcon looked great in week 1 before getting hurt(4 catches/100+ yards/TD in 12 offensive plays, 8 of which he was on the field for), and if he returns I think that'll help RG3 even more.

 
Great stuff, Assani.

Instead of backing either the 'skins or bungles; just two fist the OVER.

Bradford and Weedon had success last week against these defenses, and Washington just lost 2 starters.

Sometimes these look too easy, and it goes the other way ... but i would slam the OVER here 'til it hurt.

 
Browns + 3 points.

Since 2010, the Bills have dropped 16 of the last 19 and the last 10 straight (by an average of 14.9 points in the last 10, and 15.3 in last 16 losses).

Even though Spiller has blossomed since the last half of 2011, F. Jackson was always consistent no matter the location. I'm going to assume Fitzpatrick's weak arm and shaky play suffers again in Cleveland. Of the 3 wins since 2010 that came on the road were against teams that went either 4-12 (once) or 7-9 (twice), and Fitzpatrick didn't even play in one of those.

 
'Ministry of Pain said:
I can't find one decent play for a home team this week. I like the road team in almost every match up. I'm sure some of you will find a few but I can't find a single one I would want to bet with confidence.
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Dallas giving 8 to TB..lock it up.Baltimore giving 3 to NE
 
'Ministry of Pain said:
I can't find one decent play for a home team this week. I like the road team in almost every match up. I'm sure some of you will find a few but I can't find a single one I would want to bet with confidence.
Click to expand...
In your avoid/start thread, you have the cowboys winning by 10. I think you answered your own question GB.
 
'BRONG said:
'BassNBrew said:
'BRONG said:
'Ministry of Pain said:
I can't find one decent play for a home team this week. I like the road team in almost every match up. I'm sure some of you will find a few but I can't find a single one I would want to bet with confidence.
Click to expand...
You do realize the scrub refs have been suckers for home cookin so far, right?HTH
Click to expand...
You realize it's something like .1 additional penalties per game against the visitors relative to what the real refs called.
Click to expand...
Every little big call helps I guess. HTHGB.
Click to expand...
:bye:
 
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