Fitzgerald could actually be undervalued (1 Viewer)

[agent 86]

Most ratings and projections have 6-7 WR's sort of bunched together at the top. Every top Wr, it seems, has some downside risk. The risk for Fitzgerald is not injury related like most of the others, but rather the risk of injury to Warner. We all expect Warner to miss games this year, and the uncertainty of QB play while Warner's on the shelf seems to be holding Fitz down. (Projections have him with fewer catches, yds and TD's than last year.)

I may be jumping the gun a bit, but with the way Leinart seems to be catching on (12 straight completions last night), Fitz may be able to perform every bit as well without Warner. Although James should improve the running game, he's never been a great goalline RB. I expect Fitz to grab at least as many TD's as in '05, maybe even a couple more. I can't see his yards or catches dropping either with him entering his 3rd season and being the healthiest of the top WR's. He may not have the upside of Moss or TO, but he won't see as much double coverage either (with Boldin, BJ, and James on the field). 1400/12 would probably make him WR1 on most lists (including mine).

What do you guys think?

 

[kal-el]

I rank him #1 at WR. He has great upside and very little risk given that Leinart looks competent already.

The guy had 1,400 receiving yards as a 22-year old and has scored at leats 8 TDs in both of his first years.

 

[Pittsburgh United]

I rank him #1 at WR. He has great upside and very little risk given that Leinart looks competent already.The guy had 1,400 receiving yards as a 22-year old and has scored at leats 8 TDs in both of his first years.

 

[Sinrman]

Well, I just made a huge trade in my main league a week ago that had me giving up Randy Moss and some other big names and receiving Fitz. It hurt to give up Moss, but I'm not liking what I see out of Oakland, and Fitz just has a world of potential...

 

[LawFitz]

I rank him #1 at WR. He has great upside and very little risk given that Leinart looks competent already.The guy had 1,400 receiving yards as a 22-year old and has scored at leats 8 TDs in both of his first years.

Been saying the same thing for a while now. 3rd Yr WR theory meets a future HOFer. Me Likey. It's a bold call now to most, but I believe Fitz is the next great superstar WR in this league and has the potential to one day be spoken in the same breath as Rice and Moss in their respective primes.With Bulldog Boldin on the other side keeping defenses honest, the sky is the limit for my boy.Given his high floor and ridiculous upside, he's been my #1 WR for most of the offseason, especially now with some cloudiness to TO and Smiff's prospects.

 

[jurb26]

I've got Moss and Fitz ranked pretty much the same at #1 a/b. I've set my sights on drafting Moss and aquiring Moss in leagues because he has been far cheaper. That may cahnge after last nights performace.

 

[hutch]

I have slightly downgraded most of the Arizona Cardinals skill positions compared to where these individuals are being drafted and what most of the experts have been saying. I don't see that Arizona has made any significant improvements on the offensive line. I don't believe that Edge will single-handedly turn Arizona into a running power. I don't believe that Kurt Warner will be able to stay healthy. Leinart will struggle as a rookie backup against four-quarters of NFL 1st-team defenses during the regular season. Veteran defenders will be licking their chops to get the Hollywood rookie.

I believe there will actually be fall off in passing and receiving statistics in 2006 from 2005 offset by slight improvement in the running game. I believe that this team has the makings of being something special; but not in 2006.

 

[Hellfire Snail]

I have slightly downgraded most of the Arizona Cardinals skill positions compared to where these individuals are being drafted and what most of the experts have been saying. I don't see that Arizona has made any significant improvements on the offensive line. I don't believe that Edge will single-handedly turn Arizona into a running power. I don't believe that Kurt Warner will be able to stay healthy. Leinart will struggle as a rookie backup against four-quarters of NFL 1st-team defenses during the regular season. Veteran defenders will be licking their chops to get the Hollywood rookie. I believe there will actually be fall off in passing and receiving statistics in 2006 from 2005 offset by slight improvement in the running game. I believe that this team has the makings of being something special; but not in 2006.

This is a more realistic assessment. Anybody who thinks Leinart can come in and put up 250 and 2 while limiting mistakes and keeping the offense on the field week after week is kidding themselves. If Warner can hang in there, yes, obviously Fitz is potentially a top 3 WR this year. But if he goes down early and Leinart gets thrown in there, no matter how good Leinart can eventually be at the pro level, it is extremely, EXTREMELY unlikely that he will be able to feed Boldin and Fitz enough to keep them at their respective ADPs. Rookie QB's + shaky o-lines =

 

[Gopher State]

I have slightly downgraded most of the Arizona Cardinals skill positions compared to where these individuals are being drafted and what most of the experts have been saying. I don't see that Arizona has made any significant improvements on the offensive line. I don't believe that Edge will single-handedly turn Arizona into a running power. I don't believe that Kurt Warner will be able to stay healthy. Leinart will struggle as a rookie backup against four-quarters of NFL 1st-team defenses during the regular season. Veteran defenders will be licking their chops to get the Hollywood rookie. I believe there will actually be fall off in passing and receiving statistics in 2006 from 2005 offset by slight improvement in the running game. I believe that this team has the makings of being something special; but not in 2006.

This is a more realistic assessment. Anybody who thinks Leinart can come in and put up 250 and 2 while limiting mistakes and keeping the offense on the field week after week is kidding themselves. If Warner can hang in there, yes, obviously Fitz is potentially a top 3 WR this year. But if he goes down early and Leinart gets thrown in there, no matter how good Leinart can eventually be at the pro level, it is extremely, EXTREMELY unlikely that he will be able to feed Boldin and Fitz enough to keep them at their respective ADPs. Rookie QB's + shaky o-lines = VERY

 

[Reagan]

Most ratings and projections have 6-7 WR's sort of bunched together at the top. Every top Wr, it seems, has some downside risk. The risk for Fitzgerald is not injury related like most of the others, but rather the risk of injury to Warner. We all expect Warner to miss games this year, and the uncertainty of QB play while Warner's on the shelf seems to be holding Fitz down. (Projections have him with fewer catches, yds and TD's than last year.)I may be jumping the gun a bit, but with the way Leinart seems to be catching on (12 straight completions last night), Fitz may be able to perform every bit as well without Warner. Although James should improve the running game, he's never been a great goalline RB. I expect Fitz to grab at least as many TD's as in '05, maybe even a couple more. I can't see his yards or catches dropping either with him entering his 3rd season and being the healthiest of the top WR's. He may not have the upside of Moss or TO, but he won't see as much double coverage either (with Boldin, BJ, and James on the field). 1400/12 would probably make him WR1 on most lists (including mine).What do you guys think?

In our 10 team, PPR, redraft league, out of the 3rd slot, I took LT, Chad Johnson, Fitzgerald. CJ and Fitz were the two first WRs chosen. I hope Fitz blows up again this year. RBs were largely gone (16 of first 17 picks), so at # 18 I thought hard about FWP (chose CJ), then at 23, I thought about Dunn (best RB available) but chose Fitz. Ended up with Gore as RB2. HOpe I made right choices.

 

[Marc Levin]

He may not have the upside of Moss or TO, but he won't see as much double coverage either (with Boldin, BJ, and James on the field). 1400/12 would probably make him WR1 on most lists (including mine).

What do you guys think?

You just answered your own question - with less UPSIDE, some folks rate him SLIGHTLY LOWER than #1.Why bank on Fitz as WR1 when there are other WRs with more potential upside and/or a better track record of success and/or no significant changes in their offensive schemes (SS and Holt leap to mind)

I have Fitz as my #4 receiver, right after SS, CJ and Holt - and right ahead of Moss and Harrison. Banking on those 12 TDs you project from Fitz is a very risky proposition given the surrounding talent on that team, especially Edge.

That said, I see almost NO advantage to selecting any of the receivers I just mentioned - I'll take any one of those six as my WR1 and I won't look back.

After that come all my question marks - Owens, Wayne, Driver, Chambers - all are bunched up right there as potential WR1 quality, but enough question marks that i'd prefer oe of the WRs I have ranked ahead of them instead.

Regardless, Fitz ranked as "one of" the top-5 rated WRs seems exactly right - and CERTAINLY NOT undervalued.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

I have slightly downgraded most of the Arizona Cardinals skill positions compared to where these individuals are being drafted and what most of the experts have been saying. I don't see that Arizona has made any significant improvements on the offensive line. I don't believe that Edge will single-handedly turn Arizona into a running power. I don't believe that Kurt Warner will be able to stay healthy. Leinart will struggle as a rookie backup against four-quarters of NFL 1st-team defenses during the regular season. Veteran defenders will be licking their chops to get the Hollywood rookie. I believe there will actually be fall off in passing and receiving statistics in 2006 from 2005 offset by slight improvement in the running game. I believe that this team has the makings of being something special; but not in 2006.

This is a more realistic assessment. Anybody who thinks Leinart can come in and put up 250 and 2 while limiting mistakes and keeping the offense on the field week after week is kidding themselves. If Warner can hang in there, yes, obviously Fitz is potentially a top 3 WR this year. But if he goes down early and Leinart gets thrown in there, no matter how good Leinart can eventually be at the pro level, it is extremely, EXTREMELY unlikely that he will be able to feed Boldin and Fitz enough to keep them at their respective ADPs. Rookie QB's + shaky o-lines =

usually i would agree with having tempered expectations for rookie QBs (you don't have to be an NFL historian to note that rookie QBs usually experience rocky transition if they play at all), but leinart may be one of the most advanced QBs to ever hit the NFL (tutored by QB coach legend chow & two time NFL HC carroll)... boldin & fitz put up monster numbers with or without warner last year... so a better comparison might be how leinart stacks up against "tears of a" mccown... i might be in minority, but i don't find it too controversial to think that leinart might ALREADY be better (ie - see field better, advanced understanding of offensive & defensive concepts, ability to process information quickly, go through his progressions, get the ball quickly to open man) than mccown will ever be...which COULD mean that in fact mccown a fair proxy for what to expect if & when leinart called into action.

 

[Lemmiwinks]

Fitzgerald is just awesome. That said, if I end up with either him, Holt, CJ or SS this year I am a happy camper.

 

[Ozymandias]

Leinart could be very good. But to conclude that he will be, based on preseason games against vanilla 2nd and 3rd team defenses is getting WAY ahead of the game. Even quarterbacks who have a year's experience carrying a clipboard can have a rocky first year.

Favre's third year in the league he threw 19 td's and 24 int's (he was actually worse his third year than his second--carried a clipboard his first). Steve Young (also tutored by Chow) threw 8 td's and 13 int's his second year. John Elway went 7 and 14 his first year. Marino was the biggest exception, right out of the box he threw 20 and 6 (but Miami was a strong team before he got there, going 18-6 in the two previous years). And Manning was threw 26 td's and 28 int's his first year.

So we have some of the best QB's of the last 20 years struggling initially. Don't jump on the Leinart bandwagon and put him in the Hall of Fame yet. He may get there, but if you have to bet, bet on him struggling the first couple of years.

 

[Marc Levin]

Complete disagreement that Leinart having a difficult first year (if pressed into action) means Fitz goes into the poop chute.

If Leinart is pressed into action, I see a slight, but not significant, drop-off in Fitz's performance - Edge and Boldin, OTOH, go into the poop chute.

 

[Illmatic]

Edge and Boldin, OTOH, go into the poop chute.

Together? NTTAWWT

 

[-OZ-]

Complete disagreement that Leinart having a difficult first year (if pressed into action) means Fitz goes into the poop chute.If Leinart is pressed into action, I see a slight, but not significant, drop-off in Fitz's performance - Edge and Boldin, OTOH, go into the poop chute.

You're probably right, but I'm wondering why a rookie QB wouldn't rely on his RB, even for short passes. Also, if Leinart is competent, can the opposing D really stack the box and take out Edge? Further, I haven't followed targets, but is there any real strong evidence to lead us to assume that Fitz would automatically be the go-to, while Boldin would take it in the poop chute? (Just asking, as I don't know a lot about their camp or chemistry)

 

[agent 86]

I think you guys have made some great points. I'm not sure whether the purpose of this thread was to weed out a #1WR out of the top tier or the safest scoring option of any potential 2nd round pick. My "lofty" projections for Fitz are really just 2 TD's over last year's #'s. I agree there is a chance he's fall short of the 12 TD's, but I'm thinking about how AZ could best utilize their red-zone offense:

* Last year, Rackers became a fantasy stud because the Cards couldn't get into the end zone.

* Running in with James would be a great option, except for the below-avg line, and James is not known as a great goalline runner

* Having Boldin and James, and now Pope on the field means fewer double-teams

* Fitz had 6 red-zone TD's last year and 3 TD's in 4 games started by McCown.

* Moss was well utilized in the red-zone for some of Green's teams.

* Compared with the other top 6-7 Wr's, he has the least amount of downside (the downsides of the others have been discussed at length, but in particular, Smith always seems like he's one hit away from getting hurt, Holt's in a new system, and CJ has his own QB issues and is not well utilized in the red-zone)

Thanks again for the input. I am not a Cards homer nor a Fitz owner, simply someone with a low 1st/early 2nd round pick looking to make sure I get a stud WR.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

Leinart could be very good. But to conclude that he will be, based on preseason games against vanilla 2nd and 3rd team defenses is getting WAY ahead of the game. Even quarterbacks who have a year's experience carrying a clipboard can have a rocky first year.Favre's third year in the league he threw 19 td's and 24 int's (he was actually worse his third year than his second--carried a clipboard his first). Steve Young (also tutored by Chow) threw 8 td's and 13 int's his second year. John Elway went 7 and 14 his first year. Marino was the biggest exception, right out of the box he threw 20 and 6 (but Miami was a strong team before he got there, going 18-6 in the two previous years). And Manning was threw 26 td's and 28 int's his first year.So we have some of the best QB's of the last 20 years struggling initially. Don't jump on the Leinart bandwagon and put him in the Hall of Fame yet. He may get there, but if you have to bet, bet on him struggling the first couple of years.

just for the record, i wasn't going so much on scant evidence of part of two pre-season games... i was reiterating what some scouts said long before pre-season... that he is most advanced QB since manning... so manning might not be too far off as comp player...the real business comparison to me, & i would be interested what others have to think, is how well leinart compares to mccown... becuase fitz & boldin proved they didn't skip a beat in that case...

 

[Marc Levin]

but I'm wondering why a rookie QB wouldn't rely on his RB, even for short passes. Also, if Leinart is competent, can the opposing D really stack the box and take out Edge?

Yes - they would.8 in the box and make leinert beat you - even if Leinert dumps off to Edge, Edge faces way more defense short

 

[-OZ-]

but I'm wondering why a rookie QB wouldn't rely on his RB, even for short passes. Also, if Leinart is competent, can the opposing D really stack the box and take out Edge?

Yes - they would.8 in the box and make leinert beat you - even if Leinert dumps off to Edge, Edge faces way more defense short

I might very well overestimate Leinart's ability, but how long do you think a defense will get away with that? On most teams, this would make a lot of sense with a rookie QB, but can 3 guys cover AZ's WRs? I just don't see that lasting long.

 

[-OZ-]

the real business comparison to me, & i would be interested what others have to think, is how well leinart compares to mccown... becuase fitz & boldin proved they didn't skip a beat in that case...

Sorry to beat a deadhorse here, but considering McCown's poor performance thus far in motown, I'd sure hope Leinart >> McCown.

 

[Mario Kart]

I will go on record and say that Boldin tops Fitz this year.

 

[LawFitz]

I will go on record and say that Boldin tops Fitz this year.

Per game, maybe. But is he the better pick if choosing between the two from the same draft slot? No way.I will go on record and say that Fitz is a future HOFer. Kid is a superstud in every sense. Boldin's a great player also, but Fitz is something special. Doesn't matter who the QB is, Fitz will get his. The great ones always do.Next year, and for several years after, Fitz will be the consensus #1 WR. Props to anyone who see that now and drafts him accodingly.

 

[delusional]

Here is hoping my Fitz Walker 1 2 punch pays off this year