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Fitzgerald...... (1 Viewer)

Code:
Games  Receps Yards  TDFitzgerald career		   76	 426	5975   46Career Average					 5.6	78.6	Numbers under Leinart	   14	 81	 1114	5Average under Leinart			  5.8	79.6	 Career Stats w/o Leinart	62	 345	4861   41Career Average w/o Leinart		 5.6	78.4								  												Games  Receps Yards  TDBoldin Career			   80	 502	 6496  40Career Average					 6.3	 81.2	 Numbers under Leinart	   15	 81	  1124   4Average under Leinart			  5.4	 74.9	 Career Stats w/o Leinart	65	 421	 5372  36Career Average w/o Leinart		 6.5	 82.6
ETA: I got numbers from box scores here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play...nMa00_games.htm
And Boldin continues to be the most underrated WR in the NFL. I love it, keep hyping Fitz people.
 
Games Receps Yards TDFitzgerald career 76 426 5975 46Career Average 5.6 78.6 Numbers under Leinart 14 81 1114 5Average under Leinart 5.8 79.6 Career Stats w/o Leinart 62 345 4861 41Career Average w/o Leinart 5.6 78.4 Games Receps Yards TDBoldin Career 80 502 6496 40Career Average 6.3 81.2 Numbers under Leinart 15 81 1124 4Average under Leinart 5.4 74.9 Career Stats w/o Leinart 65 421 5372 36Career Average w/o Leinart 6.5 82.6ETA: I got numbers from box scores here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play...nMa00_games.htm
And Boldin continues to be the most underrated WR in the NFL. I love it, keep hyping Fitz people.
Who do you think teams double cover? Who do you think teams focus on?Hint: It's not Boldin.

Boldin will hurt you, but Fitz will kill you.

 
Why do these threads always have to go down this road? It's not like we're debating Fitz vs. Evans here or AJ vs Welker. When debating Andre/Calvin/Fitz/Smith it's splitting some very fine hairs.

I agree, but think Brandon Marshall needs to be added to this elite group. I know a lot of people are turned off by his off the field antics, but the guy is a major talent who has had back to back 100 catch seasons and will only get better, especially in the red zone. I think he puts it all together in 2009 and joins Fitz, AJ, CJ, Boldin and Moss as the best receivers in the NFL. Would much rather have Marshall going forward than Smith............

 
Games Receps Yards TDFitzgerald career 76 426 5975 46Career Average 5.6 78.6 Numbers under Leinart 14 81 1114 5Average under Leinart 5.8 79.6 Career Stats w/o Leinart 62 345 4861 41Career Average w/o Leinart 5.6 78.4 Games Receps Yards TDBoldin Career 80 502 6496 40Career Average 6.3 81.2 Numbers under Leinart 15 81 1124 4Average under Leinart 5.4 74.9 Career Stats w/o Leinart 65 421 5372 36Career Average w/o Leinart 6.5 82.6ETA: I got numbers from box scores here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play...nMa00_games.htm
And Boldin continues to be the most underrated WR in the NFL. I love it, keep hyping Fitz people.
Who do you think teams double cover? Who do you think teams focus on?Hint: It's not Boldin.

Boldin will hurt you, but Fitz will kill you.
From watching the Cardinals all season, I think the answer would be neither. The Cardinals do an excellent job of moving both Fitzgerald and Boldin around their formations and consistently isolate whoever they want in one-on-one situations. Perhaps defensive coordinators want to constantly double-team Fitzgerald (obviously that's not something I would know), but they Cardinals' offensive scheme doesn't allow it, which is why you see so many teams using zone-coverage against them (as Carolina did for much of the Saturday night game).
 
I think Calvin is good, but I'm surprised he's automatically included in these discussions. He's got this kind of potential but I don't think he's there yet. It's fair to blame the talent throwing him the ball, but Calvin's not in Fitz' area code right now. Calvin's shown me enough to consider him a great WR talent, but not nearly enough to have him in these discussions imo.

Fitz is the one guy who, when going up for a jump ball, I kind of expect him to do something crazy to make the catch. Steve Smith is the guy where I start paying attention to what he does once he makes the catch because that's where he shines. I think those two are the biggest difference-maker receivers in football.

 
I think Calvin is good, but I'm surprised he's automatically included in these discussions. He's got this kind of potential but I don't think he's there yet. It's fair to blame the talent throwing him the ball, but Calvin's not in Fitz' area code right now. Calvin's shown me enough to consider him a great WR talent, but not nearly enough to have him in these discussions imo.

Fitz is the one guy who, when going up for a jump ball, I kind of expect him to do something crazy to make the catch. Steve Smith is the guy where I start paying attention to what he does once he makes the catch because that's where he shines. I think those two are the biggest difference-maker receivers in football.
Watch these highlights and tell me if Calvin does crazy things with jump balls. Or you could listen to Detroit fans around here (who happen to have seen some pretty goood WRs over the years), and listen to how they rave about Calvin Johnson.Also keep in mind that Calvin has had rotating 'hot garbage' to work with at QB, wears a huge target on his back in every game as the #1 threat that opposing defenses scheme against, has only completed his 2nd yr. in the NFL and his 1st healthy season as a starting WR. Despite these disadvantages he racked up over 1300 yds receiving and 12 TDs! Compare that to Steve Smith's struggles without Delhomme, or AJ's greatly reduced production when Carr was QB. Yet Calvin somehow managed to thrive. How's that possible for a guy who as you say, isn't "there yet"?

Well maybe when you're 6'5", 240lbs+, and are often the fastest man on the field with a 4.3something 40 time, then maybe it can even offset the disadvantages of being a Lion WR in 2008. Combine all of this with Johnson's excellent attitude & character/team 1st mentality/top notch work ethic/athleticism & vertical jump/great hands/and a burning desire to acheive greatness, and now you have a "perfect storm" at the WR position.

I'm certainly not taking anything away from Fitz, but megatron is more than just a good player with 'potential'. As I said earlier Fitz is the best WR still playing football this season, and it will be a blast watching these 2 young studs over the next decade or so as they dominate the NFL.

 
I think Calvin is good, but I'm surprised he's automatically included in these discussions. He's got this kind of potential but I don't think he's there yet. It's fair to blame the talent throwing him the ball, but Calvin's not in Fitz' area code right now. Calvin's shown me enough to consider him a great WR talent, but not nearly enough to have him in these discussions imo.

Fitz is the one guy who, when going up for a jump ball, I kind of expect him to do something crazy to make the catch. Steve Smith is the guy where I start paying attention to what he does once he makes the catch because that's where he shines. I think those two are the biggest difference-maker receivers in football.
Watch these highlights and tell me if Calvin does crazy things with jump balls. Or you could listen to Detroit fans around here (who happen to have seen some pretty goood WRs over the years), and listen to how they rave about Calvin Johnson.Also keep in mind that Calvin has had rotating 'hot garbage' to work with at QB, wears a huge target on his back in every game as the #1 threat that opposing defenses scheme against, has only completed his 2nd yr. in the NFL and his 1st healthy season as a starting WR. Despite these disadvantages he racked up over 1300 yds receiving and 12 TDs! Compare that to Steve Smith's struggles without Delhomme, or AJ's greatly reduced production when Carr was QB. Yet Calvin somehow managed to thrive. How's that possible for a guy who as you say, isn't "there yet"?

Well maybe when you're 6'5", 240lbs+, and are often the fastest man on the field with a 4.3something 40 time, then maybe it can even offset the disadvantages of being a Lion WR in 2008. Combine all of this with Johnson's excellent attitude & character/team 1st mentality/top notch work ethic/athleticism & vertical jump/great hands/and a burning desire to acheive greatness, and now you have a "perfect storm" at the WR position.

I'm certainly not taking anything away from Fitz, but megatron is more than just a good player with 'potential'. As I said earlier Fitz is the best WR still playing football this season, and it will be a blast watching these 2 young studs over the next decade or so as they dominate the NFL.
Well, I'm not really down on him-- just not sold yet enough to put him in that elite class. If he does it over time, great. But right now he had a great year after a good/promising rookie campaign. He's also missed more games in two years than Fitz has in five (not saying you're comparing the two, but durability is a factor in any player's career). Maybe I'm a harder sell than most. Last year I wasn't sold on AP, either. But he showed me his durability this year and cranked out good numbers even as the focal point of the offense all season. I have nothing against Calvin Johnson and I hope he gets the chance to work with a capable QB next year. But to me the best receivers in the game are Fitz, Moss and Steve Smith. Not sure anybody else belongs there imo.

 
...hrm, and everyone was saying Boldin was the better reciever earlier in this season.
Boldin is an asbolutely fantastic WR as well. We haven't seen a tandem like this since Carter and Moss. Fitz looks better now but an argument can certainly be made for a healthy Boldin. I really think is goes:FitzA. JohnsonBoldinMoss/TOeveryone else
Absolutely crazy to not mention Steve Smith here.
Actually, it's not. Smith's production strictly depends on the ability of his QB rather than his skill. Anyone who owned him in 2006 and 2007 saw this when Jake went down.
 
...hrm, and everyone was saying Boldin was the better reciever earlier in this season.
Boldin is an asbolutely fantastic WR as well. We haven't seen a tandem like this since Carter and Moss. Fitz looks better now but an argument can certainly be made for a healthy Boldin. I really think is goes:FitzA. JohnsonBoldinMoss/TOeveryone else
Absolutely crazy to not mention Steve Smith here.
Actually, it's not. Smith's production strictly depends on the ability of his QB rather than his skill. Anyone who owned him in 2006 and 2007 saw this when Jake went down.
With Moore as a starter in '07 in weeks 15-17 Smith had 22/257/1. Not too shabby IMO. He was worse off with Testaverde, but who wouldn't be?I like your idea of comparing WR skill based on how they do with bad QB's. I recall Fitz/Boldin doing ok with Leinert but I might be wrong. Smith has been ok to great with mediocre QB's (Jake is a mediocre QB let's face it). TO has never really had a bad QB throwing to him. We all know how Moss did in Oakland with a terrible QB(s). Andre has been great with anyone not named Carr behind center, even then he was pretty good.And Calvin was having a great rookie season until the injury, then absolutely dominated this year with how many average to bad QB's exactly? 4? Yes I'm a Calvin homer.So based on this way of assessing 'talent' I'd rank them like this:CalvinFitz/Boldin (take your pick of who is better)AJMossSmithTONow I feel obligated for a more in-depth analysis to see if my gut call is remotely close.... More to come on this.
 
...hrm, and everyone was saying Boldin was the better reciever earlier in this season.
Boldin is an asbolutely fantastic WR as well. We haven't seen a tandem like this since Carter and Moss. Fitz looks better now but an argument can certainly be made for a healthy Boldin. I really think is goes:Fitz

A. Johnson

Boldin

Moss/TO

everyone else
Absolutely crazy to not mention Steve Smith here.
Actually, it's not. Smith's production strictly depends on the ability of his QB rather than his skill. Anyone who owned him in 2006 and 2007 saw this when Jake went down.
With Moore as a starter in '07 in weeks 15-17 Smith had 22/257/1. Not too shabby IMO. He was worse off with Testaverde, but who wouldn't be?I like your idea of comparing WR skill based on how they do with bad QB's. I recall Fitz/Boldin doing ok with Leinert but I might be wrong. Smith has been ok to great with mediocre QB's (Jake is a mediocre QB let's face it). TO has never really had a bad QB throwing to him. We all know how Moss did in Oakland with a terrible QB(s). Andre has been great with anyone not named Carr behind center, even then he was pretty good.

And Calvin was having a great rookie season until the injury, then absolutely dominated this year with how many average to bad QB's exactly? 4? Yes I'm a Calvin homer.
Look at the huge coded section like 20 posts up, not sure how you missed it. =)
 
He also has Warner throwing to him.
Having watched the Cardinals all season, I think Warner's success is much more a product of Fitzgerald and Boldin than their success is from their QB. Without a doubt Kurt Warner is the perfect QB for the Cardinals' offense, but so much of his game is dependent on Fitzgerald and Boldin's ability to win their one on one (or even two on one) matchups. Kurt knows how to get the most out of the duo's exceptional talent, perhaps more than anyone else in the league, but without receivers who can dominate defensive backs like Boldin and Fitzgerald do, he would not have near the success that he is having now.
But I don't think Fitz and Boldin would be in the playoffs if not for Warner, either. I don't think Leinert would have helped 3 of his WR's to 1000 yards seasons. It's synergy. I give equal credit to all.
 
I wish I could remember who I was arguing with on this board when Fitz came out of college... I was saying I'd take him over Roy Williams in a heartbeat and someone was telling me I was nuts because ROY was going to be a ten times better pro.

 
I think Calvin is good, but I'm surprised he's automatically included in these discussions. He's got this kind of potential but I don't think he's there yet. It's fair to blame the talent throwing him the ball, but Calvin's not in Fitz' area code right now. Calvin's shown me enough to consider him a great WR talent, but not nearly enough to have him in these discussions imo.

Fitz is the one guy who, when going up for a jump ball, I kind of expect him to do something crazy to make the catch. Steve Smith is the guy where I start paying attention to what he does once he makes the catch because that's where he shines. I think those two are the biggest difference-maker receivers in football.
Watch these highlights and tell me if Calvin does crazy things with jump balls. Or you could listen to Detroit fans around here (who happen to have seen some pretty goood WRs over the years), and listen to how they rave about Calvin Johnson.Also keep in mind that Calvin has had rotating 'hot garbage' to work with at QB, wears a huge target on his back in every game as the #1 threat that opposing defenses scheme against, has only completed his 2nd yr. in the NFL and his 1st healthy season as a starting WR. Despite these disadvantages he racked up over 1300 yds receiving and 12 TDs! Compare that to Steve Smith's struggles without Delhomme, or AJ's greatly reduced production when Carr was QB. Yet Calvin somehow managed to thrive. How's that possible for a guy who as you say, isn't "there yet"?

Well maybe when you're 6'5", 240lbs+, and are often the fastest man on the field with a 4.3something 40 time, then maybe it can even offset the disadvantages of being a Lion WR in 2008. Combine all of this with Johnson's excellent attitude & character/team 1st mentality/top notch work ethic/athleticism & vertical jump/great hands/and a burning desire to acheive greatness, and now you have a "perfect storm" at the WR position.

I'm certainly not taking anything away from Fitz, but megatron is more than just a good player with 'potential'. As I said earlier Fitz is the best WR still playing football this season, and it will be a blast watching these 2 young studs over the next decade or so as they dominate the NFL.
If I could have any WR in football right now to build a team around, it would be Calvin Johnson.
 
In terms of physical attributes, Calvin is probably better (bigger, stronger, faster, higher vertical, bigger reach). But I would rather take Fitz because I believe Fitz runs crisper routes and has better hands.

 
Fitz is simply awesome. I think everyone knows that. I'm really looking forward to the match-up of the Arz passing attack (at home none the less) vs. the tremendous DBs and scheme of Philly this week. Philly will pose a much bigger challenge defensively than Car did IMO.

 
Fitzgerald is the best receiver in football. The guy was incredible in college as well, finishing second in the Heisman (behind Jason White), winning the Camp and Biletnikoff and compiling 2,677 yards and 34 touchdowns in 26 games at Pitt. Once had 16 straight games with a TD.

One guy not yet mentioned in this post is Dwayne Bowe. Although he is not worthy of elite status yet, he may be on his way. There are some similarities between he and Fitzgerald.

Fitzgerald: 6-3, 220

Bowe: 6-2; 221

Stats after first two years as pro:

Fitzgerald: 161 receptions, 2,189 yards, 18 TDs, 103 1st downs

Bowe: 156 receptions, 2,017 yards, 12 TDs, 100 1st downs

Although Bowe lacks the wow factor of Fitzgerald, that could be in part due to the quality of the quarterback play and vanilla offense in Kansas City. I would put Bowe towards the end of the top-10 in dynasty receivers, which is much higher than most people have him. He has had a very good start to his career considering his team, coach and quarterbacksssss. Depending on KC's offseason, Bowe could be primed for a big year as he enters that magical third season. Given his age, he could finish 2009 near the top-five in dynasty lists. Buy low.

 
Watch these highlights and tell me if Calvin does crazy things with jump balls.
I simply amazed every single time I watch Calvin highlights. Sometimes I can't believe he's only 6'5" as stupid as that sounds....seeing him on tape he looks like he's at least a foot taller than anybody guarding him. The guy is just a monster. If there was somebody that would be deemed "uncoverable" I think it would have to be Calvin Johnson.He's bigger than you, he can jump higher than you, he's stronger than you, he's faster than you. I would hate to be a DB the week leading up to a game where I was supposed to cover him. It's not even fair really.

 
...hrm, and everyone was saying Boldin was the better reciever earlier in this season.
Boldin is an asbolutely fantastic WR as well. We haven't seen a tandem like this since Carter and Moss. Fitz looks better now but an argument can certainly be made for a healthy Boldin. I really think is goes:FitzA. JohnsonBoldinMoss/TOeveryone else
Absolutely crazy to not mention Steve Smith here.
Actually, it's not. Smith's production strictly depends on the ability of his QB rather than his skill. Anyone who owned him in 2006 and 2007 saw this when Jake went down.
I thought we were talking NFL talent here, I don't care too much for fantasy.
 
Fitzgerald is the best receiver in football. The guy was incredible in college as well, finishing second in the Heisman (behind Jason White), winning the Camp and Biletnikoff and compiling 2,677 yards and 34 touchdowns in 26 games at Pitt. Once had 16 straight games with a TD.One guy not yet mentioned in this post is Dwayne Bowe. Although he is not worthy of elite status yet, he may be on his way. There are some similarities between he and Fitzgerald.Fitzgerald: 6-3, 220Bowe: 6-2; 221Stats after first two years as pro:Fitzgerald: 161 receptions, 2,189 yards, 18 TDs, 103 1st downsBowe: 156 receptions, 2,017 yards, 12 TDs, 100 1st downsAlthough Bowe lacks the wow factor of Fitzgerald, that could be in part due to the quality of the quarterback play and vanilla offense in Kansas City. I would put Bowe towards the end of the top-10 in dynasty receivers, which is much higher than most people have him. He has had a very good start to his career considering his team, coach and quarterbacksssss. Depending on KC's offseason, Bowe could be primed for a big year as he enters that magical third season. Given his age, he could finish 2009 near the top-five in dynasty lists. Buy low.
I'm a big fan of Bowe. That being said, I look forward to the day he stops dropping easy passes (Braylon Syndrome). =)
 
Watch these highlights and tell me if Calvin does crazy things with jump balls.
I simply amazed every single time I watch Calvin highlights. Sometimes I can't believe he's only 6'5" as stupid as that sounds....seeing him on tape he looks like he's at least a foot taller than anybody guarding him. The guy is just a monster. If there was somebody that would be deemed "uncoverable" I think it would have to be Calvin Johnson.He's bigger than you, he can jump higher than you, he's stronger than you, he's faster than you. I would hate to be a DB the week leading up to a game where I was supposed to cover him. It's not even fair really.
I know, as fantasy GMs and 24-hour scouts, that we're all impressed with his potential. But he had a great year this year and showed good things while getting hurt last year. That's it. How can he already be in this class of elite receiver when he's had one healthy season? Coston sure looked like an elite receiver in his first year, but I don't see his name in these discussions. Not saying Calvin won't be one, but I don't think it's been established that he's there yet. Maybe he tears it up next year and someone bumps up this thread and I admit that I was late to the party. But if he gets injured again and slips like Colston (who still has a lot of talent) will anyone acknowledge they jumped the gun? I just don't see how anyone puts him at or near Fitz' level.

 
Just heard Cris Carter on Mike&Mike, he thinks AJ is better than Fitz.

Not by much, but he chose AJ

 
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
I know, as fantasy GMs and 24-hour scouts, that we're all impressed with his potential. But he had a great year this year and showed good things while getting hurt last year. That's it. How can he already be in this class of elite receiver when he's had one healthy season? Coston sure looked like an elite receiver in his first year, but I don't see his name in these discussions. Not saying Calvin won't be one, but I don't think it's been established that he's there yet.

Maybe he tears it up next year and someone bumps up this thread and I admit that I was late to the party. But if he gets injured again and slips like Colston (who still has a lot of talent) will anyone acknowledge they jumped the gun? I just don't see how anyone puts him at or near Fitz' level.
Maybe because Calvin is already dominating despite playing under circumstances that virtually no other WR could succeed, and his attitude, work ethic, skill set, and physical tools are unmatched. Calvin Johnson is a truly special player, more so than most any other top WR drafted in my memory, and it was obvious before he ever set foot on an NFL football field (unlike Colston who wasn't even drafted 'til the 7th rd). In fact, some posters around here were so disappointed that Calvin didn't put up 'Randy Moss type' rookie numbers that they labeled him a 'bust' after he only put up 800 yds from scrimmage and 5 TDs in his 1st season. What other rookie WR have you ever heard of who endured that kind of scrutiny?

Now in his 2nd year he faced the kinds of adversity that many of the NFL's best and most experienced WRs would have difficulty overcoming, but he not only overcame all obstacles but actually dominated in spite of them. How many other WRs in the NFL could have put up over 1300 yds and 12 TDs while working with 4 different sub-par QBs on an historically bad 0-16 Lions squad?

Certainly as you pointed out injuries could derail any professional athlete's career, even megatron's, and he hasn't been around as long as the other WRs named amonst the elite. However Calvin is already putting up elite numbers without the benefit of a Drew Brees/Kurt Warner or an offense that puts up 5,000 passing yards a season. Do you really want to argue that Calvin is no different than Colston?

ETA: Sorry for the Calvin hijack - I'll stop doing it & BTW I believe the 3 best WRs in the NFL to be Fitz, AJ, & Calvin so I'm not taking anything away from Fitz at all...

 
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Ok so I crunched some #'s relative to the discussion of QB play. I took the QB rating for each season and compared it to a similar rating for the WR. The WR rating is just the same formula as QB rating but without the part for INT's. I then normalized it to have the same maximum of 158.3.

We can compare a WR's fantasy points but it really doesn't give a measure of talent. Some guys get numbers just by the sheer number of times they are thrown to, while it's possible a more talented player does more with less.

This method obviously does not quantify WR talents such as leaping ability, speed, strength, or hands. But it does give a measure of how efficient they are with the opportunities they get.

Of the WR's we've been talking about, here is their order by career WR rating:

Moss, Randy 72.4Owens, Terrell 72.2Fitzgerald, Larry 71.1Smith, Steve 68.8Boldin, Anquan 63.4Johnson, Calvin 62.2Johnson, Andre 62.0Marshall, Brandon 54.8Of note, only Moss has had a season with a rating over 100, actually 2 seasons (2004, 2007). AJ & TO have each had 1 season over 90, and Smith came very close once (89.8).Now if we compare this to the QB rating each of them had to play with we get a different picture. If two equally skilled WR's played with a bad QB and one with a good QB this would change the WR rating. So if we take each WR rating and divide it by the corresponding QB rating we get a measure of efficiency labeled Ratio:

Player WR QB RatioSmith, Steve 68.8 77.9 88.2%Fitzgerald, Larry 71.1 83.2 85.5%Johnson, Calvin 62.2 76.3 81.5%Owens, Terrell 72.2 89.4 80.7%Moss, Randy 72.4 90.4 80.1%Boldin, Anquan 63.4 80.4 78.8%Johnson, Andre 62.0 82.3 75.3%Marshall, Brandon 54.8 83.3 65.8%Based on this, Smith has the most "talent" at making the most of what he has at QB. Again, this isn't really a measure of "talent", maybe I should call it "efficiency"? The premise is that if Smith had much better QB play, he would then have a much higher WR rating.All have had at least 1 season with a Ratio of 90% or better except Moss and Marshall.

Smith and AJ have 1 season with a Ratio over 100% !! This is probably driven by having a higher catch% than the QB has completion%, but I haven't looked into it. It seems that this is a very hard thing to do.

On the 'Fitz vs Boldin' topic this looks clear that Fitz has done better with the same QB play, although the QB rating is different between them due to the extra season Boldin played. If I take 2003 out of it, Boldin's rating actually goes down slightly.

I'll have to compare this to some known "untalented" WR's to see if it all makes sense.

 
Games Receps Yards TDFitzgerald career 76 426 5975 46Career Average 5.6 78.6 Numbers under Leinart 14 81 1114 5Average under Leinart 5.8 79.6 Career Stats w/o Leinart 62 345 4861 41Career Average w/o Leinart 5.6 78.4 Games Receps Yards TDBoldin Career 80 502 6496 40Career Average 6.3 81.2 Numbers under Leinart 15 81 1124 4Average under Leinart 5.4 74.9 Career Stats w/o Leinart 65 421 5372 36Career Average w/o Leinart 6.5 82.6ETA: I got numbers from box scores here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play...nMa00_games.htm
And Boldin continues to be the most underrated WR in the NFL. I love it, keep hyping Fitz people.
Who do you think teams double cover? Who do you think teams focus on?Hint: It's not Boldin.

Boldin will hurt you, but Fitz will kill you.
Boldin's 4 best games over the past two seasons:2007 week 3: 17 targets, 14 rec., 181 yards, 2 TDs

2007 week 16: 14 targets, 13 rec., 162 yards, 2 TDs

2008 week 2: 6 targets, 6 rec., 140 yards, 3 TDs

2008 week 11: 16 targets, 13 rec., 186 yards, 0 TDs

I'm pretty sure his opponents in those games felt he did more than just hurt them. Yeah, he killed them.

Boldin can be every bit as dangerous as Fitz. They're both great.

 
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puckalicious said:
We can compare a WR's fantasy points but it really doesn't give a measure of talent. Some guys get numbers just by the sheer number of times they are thrown to, while it's possible a more talented player does more with less.This method obviously does not quantify WR talents such as leaping ability, speed, strength, or hands. But it does give a measure of how efficient they are with the opportunities they get. .
While its nice to come up with your own WR rateing, it doesnt take into account arguably the most important ability of a WR. The abiltity to get open. Of which includes more defined skills like fighting off bump coverage, running routes, reading coverage, and being in sync with the QB. Getting opportunities isnt just a matter of what play is called. There could be a lot of unknown WRs with high rateings but it doesnt make them great WRs. Some WRs get opportunities just because they are dangerous in space, others get opportunies because they put themselves in position to get them.
 
It's amazing that Fitz can be so good yet he might not even be the best WR on his own team! God the Cards are stacked at WR.

That said I'd still take Fitz over Boldin, but I'd take Megatron over both.

 
How quickly these threads devolve into this guy over that guy. They are all great performers. At some point it is just a matter of personal preference like whether you like strip, filet, or ribeye. All are delicious in their own way.

What I originally wanted to add was this. I'd like to add that I try to put this in whenever I see a Fitz thread. In the 2006 ARZ and CAR game Bill Maas announces after a great catch by Fitz, "His hands are like cobras!".

Fitzgerald is the only WR in NFL history to have hands that are like cobras. Until the point in time where Bill Maas is released back into the wild of a Detroit Lions broadcast booth we will never definitively know what animal Calvin Johnson's hands are like and how that animal compares in speed, strength, agility, and football catching ability to that of a cobra.

End of discussion.

 
puckalicious said:
We can compare a WR's fantasy points but it really doesn't give a measure of talent. Some guys get numbers just by the sheer number of times they are thrown to, while it's possible a more talented player does more with less.This method obviously does not quantify WR talents such as leaping ability, speed, strength, or hands. But it does give a measure of how efficient they are with the opportunities they get. .
While its nice to come up with your own WR rateing, it doesnt take into account arguably the most important ability of a WR. The abiltity to get open. Of which includes more defined skills like fighting off bump coverage, running routes, reading coverage, and being in sync with the QB. Getting opportunities isnt just a matter of what play is called. There could be a lot of unknown WRs with high rateings but it doesnt make them great WRs. Some WRs get opportunities just because they are dangerous in space, others get opportunies because they put themselves in position to get them.
I agree with you, but I think this method does account for that indirectly. A WR that is not good at getting open will not have a good catch%. The components of the rating are catch/target, yds/target, and TDs/target.
How quickly these threads devolve into this guy over that guy. They are all great performers. At some point it is just a matter of personal preference like whether you like strip, filet, or ribeye. All are delicious in their own way. What I originally wanted to add was this. I'd like to add that I try to put this in whenever I see a Fitz thread. In the 2006 ARZ and CAR game Bill Maas announces after a great catch by Fitz, "His hands are like cobras!". Fitzgerald is the only WR in NFL history to have hands that are like cobras. Until the point in time where Bill Maas is released back into the wild of a Detroit Lions broadcast booth we will never definitively know what animal Calvin Johnson's hands are like and how that animal compares in speed, strength, agility, and football catching ability to that of a cobra. End of discussion.
:rofl: I remember hearing that and thinking what a dork Maas is. Do Fitz's hands spit in the CB's face to blind them? Now that is a good trait for a WR.
 
puckalicious said:
We can compare a WR's fantasy points but it really doesn't give a measure of talent. Some guys get numbers just by the sheer number of times they are thrown to, while it's possible a more talented player does more with less.This method obviously does not quantify WR talents such as leaping ability, speed, strength, or hands. But it does give a measure of how efficient they are with the opportunities they get. .
While its nice to come up with your own WR rateing, it doesnt take into account arguably the most important ability of a WR. The abiltity to get open. Of which includes more defined skills like fighting off bump coverage, running routes, reading coverage, and being in sync with the QB. Getting opportunities isnt just a matter of what play is called. There could be a lot of unknown WRs with high rateings but it doesnt make them great WRs. Some WRs get opportunities just because they are dangerous in space, others get opportunies because they put themselves in position to get them.
Give me some examples of WRs you think are not talented yet would rate higher than they should. I will gladly see what their WR rating is so we can further evaluate it.
 
puckalicious said:
Ok so I crunched some #'s relative to the discussion of QB play. I took the QB rating for each season and compared it to a similar rating for the WR. The WR rating is just the same formula as QB rating but without the part for INT's. I then normalized it to have the same maximum of 158.3.

We can compare a WR's fantasy points but it really doesn't give a measure of talent. Some guys get numbers just by the sheer number of times they are thrown to, while it's possible a more talented player does more with less.

This method obviously does not quantify WR talents such as leaping ability, speed, strength, or hands. But it does give a measure of how efficient they are with the opportunities they get.

Of the WR's we've been talking about, here is their order by career WR rating:

Moss, Randy 72.4Owens, Terrell 72.2Fitzgerald, Larry 71.1Smith, Steve 68.8Boldin, Anquan 63.4Johnson, Calvin 62.2Johnson, Andre 62.0Marshall, Brandon 54.8Of note, only Moss has had a season with a rating over 100, actually 2 seasons (2004, 2007). AJ & TO have each had 1 season over 90, and Smith came very close once (89.8).Now if we compare this to the QB rating each of them had to play with we get a different picture. If two equally skilled WR's played with a bad QB and one with a good QB this would change the WR rating. So if we take each WR rating and divide it by the corresponding QB rating we get a measure of efficiency labeled Ratio:

Player WR QB RatioSmith, Steve 68.8 77.9 88.2%Fitzgerald, Larry 71.1 83.2 85.5%Johnson, Calvin 62.2 76.3 81.5%Owens, Terrell 72.2 89.4 80.7%Moss, Randy 72.4 90.4 80.1%Boldin, Anquan 63.4 80.4 78.8%Johnson, Andre 62.0 82.3 75.3%Marshall, Brandon 54.8 83.3 65.8%Based on this, Smith has the most "talent" at making the most of what he has at QB. Again, this isn't really a measure of "talent", maybe I should call it "efficiency"? The premise is that if Smith had much better QB play, he would then have a much higher WR rating.All have had at least 1 season with a Ratio of 90% or better except Moss and Marshall.

Smith and AJ have 1 season with a Ratio over 100% !! This is probably driven by having a higher catch% than the QB has completion%, but I haven't looked into it. It seems that this is a very hard thing to do.

On the 'Fitz vs Boldin' topic this looks clear that Fitz has done better with the same QB play, although the QB rating is different between them due to the extra season Boldin played. If I take 2003 out of it, Boldin's rating actually goes down slightly.

I'll have to compare this to some known "untalented" WR's to see if it all makes sense.
This post was awesome. I'm not sure that it is a perfect or even the best way to look at WR, but man, it sure is interesting. Just brilliant.
 
Ok I made a mistake, the WR rating was not being scaled correctly to the same 158.3 scale as the QB so here are the new career ratings:

Player WR QB RatioSmith, Steve 91.7 77.9 117.6%Fitzgerald, Larry 94.8 83.2 114.0%Johnson, Calvin 82.9 76.3 108.7%Owens, Terrell 96.2 89.4 107.6%Moss, Randy 96.5 90.4 106.8%Boldin, Anquan 84.5 80.4 105.1%Johnson, Andre 82.6 82.3 100.4%Branch, Deion 77.5 87.1 89.0%Marshall, Brandon 73.1 83.3 87.8%It is a linear scale in the error so the overall ranking stays the same. However I added in Deion Branch for a sense check. This is a guy that has done well enough in the past with a good (great) QB so I wanted to see how he fit in. Seems to make sense to me.Remember this is backward looking at past performance and is not an indicator of future performance.

I'm still looking for help to improve this - suggest a WR that you think should be "good" or "bad" and I'll put it in here. Let's limit it to WRs that get at least 70-80 targets or so a season when healthy. Ideally we want a talented WR with a crappy QB or a crappy WR with a good QB to see how this shakes out.

 
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Ok I made a mistake, the WR rating was not being scaled correctly to the same 158.3 scale as the QB so here are the new career ratings:

Code:
Player			 	WR	QB	RatioSmith, Steve	 	91.7	77.9	117.6%Fitzgerald, Larry	94.8	83.2	114.0%Johnson, Calvin	  82.9	76.3	108.7%Owens, Terrell   	96.2	89.4	107.6%Moss, Randy		  96.5	90.4	106.8%Boldin, Anquan   	84.5	80.4	105.1%Johnson, Andre   	82.6	82.3	100.4%Branch, Deion		77.5	87.1	 89.0%Marshall, Brandon	73.1	83.3	 87.8%
It is a linear scale in the error so the overall ranking stays the same. However I added in Deion Branch for a sense check. This is a guy that has done well enough in the past with a good (great) QB so I wanted to see how he fit in. Seems to make sense to me.Remember this is backward looking at past performance and is not an indicator of future performance.I'm still looking for help to improve this - suggest a WR that you think should be "good" or "bad" and I'll put it in here. Let's limit it to WRs that get at least 70-80 targets or so a season when healthy. Ideally we want a talented WR with a crappy QB or a crappy WR with a good QB to see how this shakes out.
Lee Evans - A guy I think is crazy talented but has had horrible QBChris Chambers (MIA) - Was he really good with terrible QB or was he mediocre with mediocre QB?Chris Chambers (SD) - Did his ratio change when he went from MIA to SD and Phil Rivers?Bernard Berrian - Solid numbers, terrible QBAndre Johnson - Break it down to with Carr and with Anyone else
 
Fitzgerald is genetically, one of the greatest physical specimen's on the offensive side of the ball since Bo Jackson. Not to sound gay or anything, but look at his leg muscles and butt compared to anyone else on the field. Freakishly superior muscles and that isn't even talking about his athletisism and skills. If a mad scientist were scouting out human DNA to make the most superior human athlete, Fitz has the genes you want cloned or reproduced.
How's his bubble?
 
Fitzgerald is genetically, one of the greatest physical specimen's on the offensive side of the ball since Bo Jackson. Not to sound gay or anything, but look at his leg muscles and butt compared to anyone else on the field. Freakishly superior muscles and that isn't even talking about his athletisism and skills. If a mad scientist were scouting out human DNA to make the most superior human athlete, Fitz has the genes you want cloned or reproduced.
How's his bubble?
How did being a physical specimen work out for David Boston?
 
Ok I made a mistake, the WR rating was not being scaled correctly to the same 158.3 scale as the QB so here are the new career ratings:

Code:
Player			 	WR	QB	RatioSmith, Steve	 	91.7	77.9	117.6%Fitzgerald, Larry	94.8	83.2	114.0%Johnson, Calvin	  82.9	76.3	108.7%Owens, Terrell   	96.2	89.4	107.6%Moss, Randy		  96.5	90.4	106.8%Boldin, Anquan   	84.5	80.4	105.1%Johnson, Andre   	82.6	82.3	100.4%Branch, Deion		77.5	87.1	 89.0%Marshall, Brandon	73.1	83.3	 87.8%
It is a linear scale in the error so the overall ranking stays the same. However I added in Deion Branch for a sense check. This is a guy that has done well enough in the past with a good (great) QB so I wanted to see how he fit in. Seems to make sense to me.Remember this is backward looking at past performance and is not an indicator of future performance.I'm still looking for help to improve this - suggest a WR that you think should be "good" or "bad" and I'll put it in here. Let's limit it to WRs that get at least 70-80 targets or so a season when healthy. Ideally we want a talented WR with a crappy QB or a crappy WR with a good QB to see how this shakes out.
Lee Evans - A guy I think is crazy talented but has had horrible QBChris Chambers (MIA) - Was he really good with terrible QB or was he mediocre with mediocre QB?Chris Chambers (SD) - Did his ratio change when he went from MIA to SD and Phil Rivers?Bernard Berrian - Solid numbers, terrible QBAndre Johnson - Break it down to with Carr and with Anyone else
Andre Johnson -2003 - 2006 (Carr, Banks, Ragone) : WR 71, QB 79, Ratio 90%2007 - 2008 (Shaub, Rosenfels) : WR 106, QB 89, Ratio 119% :lmao: 2007 - 2008 Shaub only : WR 108, QB 94, Ratio 1142007 - 2008 Rosenfels only : WR 104, QB 81, Ratio 129It seems AJ is better than his career #'s seem to suggest. 2005 in particular really pulled him down, what a bad year.Overall this method seems a little circular... does a good WR make a good QB or vice versa?? Nearly every increase in QB rating results in an increase in WR rating...One thing that seems likely is that the great WR's score higher than their QB's, something that Branch & Marshall have not been able to do.
 
Lee Evans - A guy I think is crazy talented but has had horrible QBChris Chambers (MIA) - Was he really good with terrible QB or was he mediocre with mediocre QB?Chris Chambers (SD) - Did his ratio change when he went from MIA to SD and Phil Rivers?Bernard Berrian - Solid numbers, terrible QBAndre Johnson - Break it down to with Carr and with Anyone else
According to what I've come up with:Evans - crazy talentedChambers (MIA) - appears mediocre w/bad QB, actually did well for 3 out of 5 yearsChambers (SD) - consistently mediocre with an average (2007) and great (2008) RiversStill working on Berrian.
Code:
Player			 	WR	QB	RatioEvans, Lee	   	92.9	78.0	119Smith, Steve	 	91.7	77.9	118Fitzgerald, Larry	94.8	83.2	114Johnson, Calvin	  82.9	76.3	109Owens, Terrell   	96.2	89.4	108Moss, Randy		  96.5	90.4	107Boldin, Anquan   	84.5	80.4	105Johnson, Andre   	82.6	82.3	100Branch, Deion		77.5	87.1 	89Marshall, Brandon	73.1	83.3 	88Chambers, Chris	  64.0	77.9 	82
I'm still not sure this is working the way I thought it would. Is Evans really that good? Is Marshall really that average?We need to throw in the worst possible starting WR that got plenty of targets over several years. Who would be good candidates?
 
puckalicious said:
According to what I've come up with:Evans - crazy talentedChambers (MIA) - appears mediocre w/bad QB, actually did well for 3 out of 5 yearsChambers (SD) - consistently mediocre with an average (2007) and great (2008) RiversStill working on Berrian.

Code:
Player			 	WR	QB	RatioEvans, Lee	   	92.9	78.0	119Smith, Steve	 	91.7	77.9	118Fitzgerald, Larry	94.8	83.2	114Johnson, Calvin	  82.9	76.3	109Owens, Terrell   	96.2	89.4	108Moss, Randy		  96.5	90.4	107Boldin, Anquan   	84.5	80.4	105Johnson, Andre   	82.6	82.3	100Branch, Deion		77.5	87.1 	89Marshall, Brandon	73.1	83.3 	88Chambers, Chris	  64.0	77.9 	82
I'm still not sure this is working the way I thought it would. Is Evans really that good? Is Marshall really that average?We need to throw in the worst possible starting WR that got plenty of targets over several years. Who would be good candidates?
I think it makes a lot more sense than you are giving it credit for. You have to keep in mind the limitations of the QB rating system. But, it really comes down to yards/target.Evans' yards per target stats are actually among the very elite in the league. In what many consider to have been a bad year he put up ~10 yards per target. That number is phenomenal. Among players with a fair amount of targets the only better players were Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, and Bernard Berrian. Those guys all had huge yards/reception (we're talking 18+). While Evans was certainly no slouch (~16) he combined that with a very good catch % (62%). So in addition to being a very reliable target he also was a deep threat. Those things don't usually go together. For instance, Evans has a similar career ypc to Plaxico Burress. But, Evans career catch% is about 58%, Burress' is 49%.Marshall is not exactly like Chris Chambers but there are some similarities. He has an insane amount of targets but not nearly as many yards as you would expect. For example, he had about 260 more yards than Evans this year. It took him about 80 more targets though.181 targets - 1265 yards for Marshall102 targets - 1017 yards for EvansIf Evans ever gets in a situation to receive 130+ targets per year he will be a consistent top 10 WR performer.
 
puckalicious said:
We need to throw in the worst possible starting WR that got plenty of targets over several years. Who would be good candidates?
I think the answer is Chambers. The guy consitently got tons of targets and did very little with them. Another option is L. Coles, he got pretty consistently highish numbers of targets without really putting up anything but mediocre numbers.Another interesting one would be Chad Johnson vs. TJ Housh. I am extremely confident that your analysis method will show Ocho Cinco to be an elite talent and TJ Housh to be mediocre at best. Especially if you limit it to 2006 and 2007 (the years when it become popular on this board to claim that TJ Housh was really the better player).
 
I also think it is important to remember what the ratio is really saying. If it is greater than 100 it means that on average your team got better production when they threw the ball to you than if they threw it to someone else. If it is less than 100 it means that on average your team got better production when they threw the ball to someone else.

In the last two year the Broncos have been more efficient when they throw the ball to Not Brandon Marshall.

 
I also think it is important to remember what the ratio is really saying. If it is greater than 100 it means that on average your team got better production when they threw the ball to you than if they threw it to someone else. If it is less than 100 it means that on average your team got better production when they threw the ball to someone else.In the last two year the Broncos have been more efficient when they throw the ball to Not Brandon Marshall.
Right. So would it be a better comparison to use just the WR rating? I'm starting to think so. The ratio thing doesn't tell us anything beyond what you stated which doesn't really answer the question of talent. Sure Marshall's numbers look bad, but maybe it's because he gets double teamed all the time, making it easier for 'Not Brandon Marshall' to look pretty good. Although you could say the same for Moss/Owens but their WR rating is much higher.
 
Couple of other guys I wouldn't mind seeing measured:

Wes Welker (insane amount of targets)

Greg Jennings (is he close to elite status?)

Roddy White (see Greg Jennings)

Antonio Bryant 2008 (how good was he this year?)

Braylon Edwards 2007-2008 (too see how much he regressed year over year)

Santonio Holmes 2007-2008 (see Braylon)

Kevin Walter - (just because it seems like a good "average WR" test case)

 
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Watch these highlights and tell me if Calvin does crazy things with jump balls.
I simply amazed every single time I watch Calvin highlights. Sometimes I can't believe he's only 6'5" as stupid as that sounds....seeing him on tape he looks like he's at least a foot taller than anybody guarding him. The guy is just a monster. If there was somebody that would be deemed "uncoverable" I think it would have to be Calvin Johnson.He's bigger than you, he can jump higher than you, he's stronger than you, he's faster than you. I would hate to be a DB the week leading up to a game where I was supposed to cover him. It's not even fair really.
Agreed.....I had field-level seats when DET visited Oakland last year, and seeing Calvin up close really was an eye-opener. I mean this guy is literally as big as many tight ends, he absolutely dwarfed Roy Williams who is a legit 6'2" and about 215. This guy is every bit of 6'5", maybe pushing 6'5 1/2" to 6'5 3/4", and definitely at least 240 lbs.....When you combine the top-end speed and agility that he has, it's lights out for the rest of the league for many years to come
 
Couple of other guys I wouldn't mind seeing measured:Wes Welker (insane amount of targets)Greg Jennings (is he close to elite status?)Roddy White (see Greg Jennings)Antonio Bryant 2008 (how good was he this year?)Braylon Edwards 2007-2008 (too see how much he regressed year over year)Santonio Holmes 2007-2008 (see Braylon)Kevin Walter - (just because it seems like a good "average WR" test case)
I think I mentioned earlier that a much quicker way to do this comparison is to look at yards per target. Anything above 8 is good above 8.5 or so is pretty damn elite.Wes Welker - Is pretty good 8.1 last year 7.7ish this year. He is what he is, a very good posession guy.Greg Jennings - Insane. Almost 11 yards per target last year. Over 9 this year. He already is eliteRoddy White - Boy was I ever wrong on this guy. Thought 07 was a fluke. He is elite. 8.7 ypt in 07 and 9.3 in 08.Antonio Bryant - I haven't actually looked him up so I have no idea.Braylon Edwards - The drop off was huge, went from 8.4 ypt to 6.3Holmes - Very big drop off. 9.6 as a rookie, over 11 last year, and then down to 7.2 this year (Hines Ward went up almost 2 ypt from 07 to 08, maybe teams rolled their coverage towards Holmes this year?)Kevin Walter - No idea.ETA:Antonio Bryant is much better than I gave him credit for. His ypt numbers for the last four years he has played are 8.6, 8.2, 8, and 9.1. That is with four different teams over the course of five years and includes a midseason trade. He is very good and just needs to keep his head on straight. Other than being a knucklehead his only problem has been a suprising lack of touchdowns given how productive he has been.Kevin Walter - Since Carr left he has been right around 8.5 ypt. 08 was a little better than 07 but not that much. The added touchdowns make it appear to be a bigger difference but the truth is he was already pretty good in 07.
 
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Yes he is.
:confused: I'm praying for a early pick in our 1-keeper league to pair him with Westy. He is now in a class by himself. Who will be starting in ARZ though? I could see Warner retiring IF they win the SB. Either way, this kid is a joy to watch. Living in Milwaukee we don't get many ARZ games, so here's to more MNF for the Cards next year. :lmao:
 
Are there any more doubters after this dominating NFC Championship Game performance......what a mismatch Fitz presents...Asante Samuel...not a chance.....Sheldon Brown....."just toss is up high Kurt and I'll catch it for 6".......done deal, Fitz is clearly #1.....and will probably go down as one of the top 4-5 of all-time when it's all said and done

This is where legends are established...on the biggest of stages, in the biggest games. When you dominate here as well as year-in and year-out, your legacy is cemented

 
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Are there any more doubters after this dominating NFC Championship Game performance......what a mismatch Fitz presents...Asante Samuel...not a chance.....Sheldon Brown....."just toss is up high Kurt and I'll catch it for 6".......done deal, Fitz is clearly #1.....and will probably go down as one of the top 4-5 of all-time when it's all said and done
I agree.
 

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