Banger
Footballguy
agreed. I'm not expecting a pro-rated 1500 yrds and 12 tds but his only competition for receptions is an unknown Givens and the TE's. I think he has the potential to put up decent wr2 #'s.
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Five Value Plays at WR Nobody is Talking About (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Engram is solid gold at his draft spot. Why is everyone on the Burleson cool-aid again this year. The two of these guys could very well end up with similar numbers. Jackson does not appear to be fully healed. Stevens is out for several weeks. There will be plenty of balls to go around for a proven guy like Engram to crack into your lineup as a #3WR.
Wilford is also one of my prime targets.
If my WR corp shakes out like this I'll be very happy:
T Holt (or other 2nd rd pick)
R Smith (6th)
E Kennison (7th)
E Wilford (10th)
Engram (late)
Go RB in 1, 3, 4, 5, QB in 8, 9 and you should be laughing your way to the playoffs.
Wilford is also one of my prime targets.
If my WR corp shakes out like this I'll be very happy:
T Holt (or other 2nd rd pick)
R Smith (6th)
E Kennison (7th)
E Wilford (10th)
Engram (late)
Go RB in 1, 3, 4, 5, QB in 8, 9 and you should be laughing your way to the playoffs.
Rusty Syringes
Footballguy
TROY WILLIAMSON
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Lee Evans scored 129 points last year as the #2 guy, with less than six targets per game. He's the clear #1 now, which means he should see 8-9 chances per game.
Doing a bit of basic math you've got a ADP WR#22 who almost can't help but score 175 points. And his ceiling is well above that (even if Losman is no better than last year). He should be Top 10 and could be Top 5, with almost no chance he finishes outside the Top 20. If Losman were to unexpectedly become an average NFL QB, Evans' numbers could be ridiculous.
Wilford is a similar deal. As long as Del Rio shuts up about not naming his starting WRs (see his quote from yesterday) and stops hoping Reggie Williams will become anything other than the bust he actually is, Wilford has a fairly high ceiling and little chance he underperforms his ADP. Unless you think Del Rio is an idiot -- in which case adjust accordingly.
Chris Henry will eventually be a Top 10 receiver if he can keep himself out of jail and in the league long enough to be a #1 somewhere. This year he's a real flyer, but with an ADP of WR#73 you can take a shot in deep leagues as long as you can also afford zero points from the pick.
Finally, he's in the Top 20, but people are sleeping on Santana Moss. Last year wasn't a fluke, it was very similar to his other years in the league if you adjust for opportunity.
Doing a bit of basic math you've got a ADP WR#22 who almost can't help but score 175 points. And his ceiling is well above that (even if Losman is no better than last year). He should be Top 10 and could be Top 5, with almost no chance he finishes outside the Top 20. If Losman were to unexpectedly become an average NFL QB, Evans' numbers could be ridiculous.
Wilford is a similar deal. As long as Del Rio shuts up about not naming his starting WRs (see his quote from yesterday) and stops hoping Reggie Williams will become anything other than the bust he actually is, Wilford has a fairly high ceiling and little chance he underperforms his ADP. Unless you think Del Rio is an idiot -- in which case adjust accordingly.
Chris Henry will eventually be a Top 10 receiver if he can keep himself out of jail and in the league long enough to be a #1 somewhere. This year he's a real flyer, but with an ADP of WR#73 you can take a shot in deep leagues as long as you can also afford zero points from the pick.
Finally, he's in the Top 20, but people are sleeping on Santana Moss. Last year wasn't a fluke, it was very similar to his other years in the league if you adjust for opportunity.
superbeck1
Footballguy
I can add two names I like as late round WR who I think can outperform their ADP:
First Jerricho Cotchery. After Coles who else is there to catch the ball? This may be a team playing from behind and McCareins is in the doghouse, Baker the TE has been left in to block, Chrebet is gone, Sowell is gone. You will get some checkdowns to the RB of the day for the Jets but I think Cotchery has been undrafted in many leagues. Could be good waiver wire addition.
The other of mine may take a bit of a hit but I really like Reche Caldwell to pick up the slack at WR. He has good size and speed - yes he's no burner but has shown glimpses when healthy. If Branch stays out, (which sounds like he's close to a deal) Caldwell could really benefit.....
First Jerricho Cotchery. After Coles who else is there to catch the ball? This may be a team playing from behind and McCareins is in the doghouse, Baker the TE has been left in to block, Chrebet is gone, Sowell is gone. You will get some checkdowns to the RB of the day for the Jets but I think Cotchery has been undrafted in many leagues. Could be good waiver wire addition.
The other of mine may take a bit of a hit but I really like Reche Caldwell to pick up the slack at WR. He has good size and speed - yes he's no burner but has shown glimpses when healthy. If Branch stays out, (which sounds like he's close to a deal) Caldwell could really benefit.....
taz
Footballguy
How is a half-year of production, four years go, relevant now? It's not like he made the most of his opportunity last year with Burleson on the shelf.I drank the Kool-Aid last year; I'll pass.
salmonstud
Footballguy
5 WR's I'm targeting in the mid rounds that are outside the top 20 -
A.Bryant - Clearcut #1 in SF and A.Smith has developed a good rapport with him in training camp.
M.Clayton - Many people will avoid him based on his 2005 stats. Should slip to WR 35-40 range. Injuries are what kept him from putting up more solid numbers last season.
L.Evans - Shouldn't slip much - but I believe he will finish in the top 20 & may slip to the W30 range.
Muhammad & T.Taylor for the reasons you stipulated.
A.Bryant - Clearcut #1 in SF and A.Smith has developed a good rapport with him in training camp.
M.Clayton - Many people will avoid him based on his 2005 stats. Should slip to WR 35-40 range. Injuries are what kept him from putting up more solid numbers last season.
L.Evans - Shouldn't slip much - but I believe he will finish in the top 20 & may slip to the W30 range.
Muhammad & T.Taylor for the reasons you stipulated.
joffer
Footballguy
because he had an actual QB throwing to him.
Texican
Footballguy
That's actually who I targetted. Is he or Taylor the guy to have here?????
Jayded
Footballguy
I think someone sneaking way under the radar could be Ronald Curry. In his final few games in 2004 before his injury he was extremely solid (averging 6.3 catches, 103 yards, and a TD per game). If he can crack the starting lineup on the opposite side from Moss he could be very productive drawing the single coverage.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I dont like either guy. Brad Johnson wont make it through the season. Also the biggest reason I can't convince myself to take Chester in any leagues.
I would pick TT if I had to have one as a WR5/6 in deep leagues.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Most of the names I like this year have already been mentioned but I'll throw one out that hasn't;
Samie Parker - He's being drafted with the dregs but I think he has some upside with very low downside when you consider the chances any other WR on the KC roster steals his starting gig. Kennison is getting old and Gonzales is on the decline(will he be required to stay in and block more given the state of the KC OT's?).
Samie Parker - He's being drafted with the dregs but I think he has some upside with very low downside when you consider the chances any other WR on the KC roster steals his starting gig. Kennison is getting old and Gonzales is on the decline(will he be required to stay in and block more given the state of the KC OT's?).
The Vision
Footballguy
I was looking at Brown this morning and you could be on to something here. You covered everything and then some of what I would have said about Brown.
Again, if you see a similar situation (i.e. Cowher opening it up again), then I really don't get how you can be so down on Hines Ward, who you called one of the most overrated fantasy WRs in the entire NFL this year at #12. The last time Pitt "opened it up" enough to provide decent value to the #2 WR, Ward finished with 112/1329/12 and ranked as the #3 fantasy WR. The following season, he posted 95/1163/10 and finished as the #6 fantasy WR. In PPR, he'd rank even higher those two years.You're really sending inconsistant messages here, LHUCKS. Do you think Pittsburgh is going to open it up, or don't you?
You know where I stand on this. Keyshawn Johnson has a chance to be the #1 WR in a system where the #1 WR has been the #1 WR in all of fantasy football for two years running. John Fox's offense is better for WR1s than even LINEHAN'S fabled offense ever was. If you call that "limited upside", then I'll say that everyone else you've mentioned has "no upside" in comparison. If Smith went down, I would expect Keyshawn to be top-12, easily. And if Smith doesn't go down, Keyshawn will still get you some of the best WR3 numbers in the league. Not bad for a guy not being drafted in the top 36.
I made a thread earlier this year with my complete thoughts on him.He's a guy who I actively targeted late in all of my leagues (except for one, just for the sake of roster diversity).I love this pick. I wanted him badly in my main league but he got drafted crazy early (about 3 rounds higher than ADP).
If you're familiar with Football Outsiders, they call him Bobby "The First Down Machine" Engram, because according to their stats, there was a 3 year span or so where nobody in the entire league was better at converting on 3rd down than Engram. He's really been a very solid, underrated real-life NFL player for a while now. I also remember early last year before DJax and Engram got hurt how they were both in the top 10 in the NFL in receptions (maybe both in the top 5? They were very high). The lack of TDs hurt them, but Shaun Alexander can't have a record season EVERY year, now can he?
I've gone on record as being a huge Lee Evans fan, but I think he's too high of a draft pick for this thread. He's already very much on the fantasy radar.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Bennett is a nice upside pick if you can get him late enough. Any player who is the #1 on their team in an offense that is decent can be value. I've drafted him in a few competitive leagues.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Yes I have been inconsistent as my thoughts on the Pittsburgh offense have slowly evolved. My projections are a living organism, I don't analyze and then lock them in a box for four months. Here's where I stand now.A) Ward is a solid play at #12. Before I was down on him but now I'm a bit more convinced his targets will inrcrease enough to justifty the ranking. I think Pitt will modestly increase pass attempts.B) Wilson is value regardless of whether Pitt increases pass attempts
LHUCKS
Footballguy
why is he going to be the #1 ahead of SS?
I figured your feelings had changed, I was just making sure.
I saw your earlier thread and agreed with it then. It's not like Steve Smith has been an Ironman so far in his career and even the possibility of Keyshawn being the number one on that team for 3 games or so is worth where he is being drafted. I think any week that Steve Smith doesn't play is a week that Keyshawn Johnson should be ranked in the top 10.I made a thread earlier this year with my complete thoughts on him.He's a guy who I actively targeted late in all of my leagues (except for one, just for the sake of roster diversity).
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I think he meant if SS geting injured since , Mushin & SS have been ranked #1WR last two year. That key steps into that role.
Yeah, it's based on an injury to Steve Smith. Which shouldn't be a problem, since you're talking about guys like Northcutt who only have any value given an injury ahead of them.I see 2 scenarios with Key. 1- Steve Smith doesn't get hurt, and Keyshawn outperforms his ADP.2- Steve Smith gets hurt and Key DRASTICALLY outperforms his ADP.I'd be happy with #1, but Steve Smith is already nursing a hamstring injury, so #2 certainly isn't out of the question here.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Logical...although I don't see Key putting up Moose/SS numbers if SS does go down because of his lack of ability at this stage in his career.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Did you see Moose putting up those stats? Obviously Key is older, but his performance over the last 5 years looks a lot like Moose's before his 2004 season.
John Maddens Lunchbox
Footballguy
His achilles snapped again after reading your post. What's he up to now, 3 torn achilles?
No, I don't expect Moose/Smith numbers. Those would make him the #1 overall WR by a significant margin. Both players averaged almost 15 points per game, and scored more than any other WRs in the past 4 years except for Moss in his ABSURD 2003. Keyshawn could get just 75% of those numbers, and he'd still rank as a top-10 WR.Anyway, I'm not so convinced that Keyshawn has a "lack of ability" here. First off, I feel like the drop in Key's ypc last year had a lot to do with the role he was used in. There are three points worth making here. First, the last time he set a career low in ypc, the next season he posted a career HIGH in ypc. Second, just two years ago he had the second-best YPC of his career. Third, Jake Delhomme has a demonstrated history of helping out his WRs. Discarding Muhammad's rookie season, he never averaged fewer than 15.1 ypc in two years with Delhomme... and he never averaged more than 13.8 ypc in 7 years without him. That's significant.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
We'll have to agree to disagree...Moose > Key even in '06, let alone '04.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I have no problem with that, but I'm very interested to see your logic.
glock
"Don't grumble, give a whistle!"
I hooked Keyshawn half by accident late at a $200 auction cap league...for $2.My Steve Smith voo-doo doll looks like a pin cushion...
I was thinking the same thing
LHUCKS
Footballguy
To play devil's advocate:
I thought he just looked like he was older/slower.
Yes but it's easier to do that when you're younger.
solid argument. Although my gut tells me he's on the downslope given his age and what I saw last year.
Solid argument.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
People hate it when I say this, but it's based on qualitative observation as I pretty much watch every single game including the preseason game, several twice. Moose just looks more dominant to me...even in this preseason. Moose can still break a tackle and you rarely see Key doing much of that anymore.
Hey man, I'm not projecting Moose numbers for Meshawn here. Like I said, I'd be content with 75% of what Moose put up.
I didn't see him play too much last year, but when I did, I simply thought he was being reigned in a lot more than I ever remembered him being. Again, just my personal opinion.
SSOG, I agree with your reasoning on Keyshawn. However, the bolded statement is just not correct. Both players had great years but we are not talking historically great.From Pro Football Reference:
2005 Steve Smith - 237 Fantasy Points
2004 Mushin Muhammad - 238
2003 Randy Moss - 267
2003 Torry Holt - 242
2002 Marvin Harrison - 239
2001 Marvin Harrison - 243
2001 Terrell Owens - 239
It looks to me like they put up pretty much what you would expect from the number one receiver in the league. Totals that have been beat 5 times in the last 5 years.
Although you are right about Randy Moss' 2003 being absurd.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I hear ya. In the end it comes down to where you would rank the guy.Many of the WRs around Keyshawn's ranking are either A) #1's on their own team(McCardell/Bryant/Bennett/Brown/Branch)or B) are younger, more typical breakout WR profiles(Brown/Burleson/Clayton/Clayton/Wilford/Jones/Stallworth)orC) proven #2's (Glenn/Bruce)I'm just not sure which of these WRs I'd rank below Key right now.(currently #37 in FBG consensus) Maybe Bruce/Stallworth...that's about it.Hey man, I'm not projecting Moose numbers for Meshawn here. Like I said, I'd be content with 75% of what Moose put up.
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Sleeper 43
Footballguy
This guy played pretty darn good last year. Kennison is Possession reciever at his age and Samie is the spark KC needs for that deep threat bomb. This guy gets no love. But I promise by the end of this season barring injury, Samie Parker will be top 25 in 07.Hey and what about Vincent Jackson, great,late,value IMO guys was verything Mike Williams was pre-draft except hes slightly taller, stronger, faster, and had a better vertical. Problem was he came out of a small school. He did a few things towards the end of last season and this pre-season has shown hes getting a nice start this year.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I really, really like Jackson and probably should have added him. Rivers has confidence in him and Parker/McCardell lack his athleticism. Sweet value if Rivers can come through and if he can somehow find his way into the starting lineup.
He has been abusing corners in the preseason.
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Banger
Footballguy
those two throws into the corner that he grabbed were beautiful athletic plays. If Rivers works out the Chargers are gonna have a real nice offense for a few years.I really, really like Jackson and probably should have added him. Rivers has confidence in him and Parker/McCardell lack his athleticism. Sweet value if Rivers can come through and if he can somehow find his way into the starting lineup.
I used the Data Dominator to get my numbers. It had them ranked as follows:2003 Moss - 262.7
2004 Moose - 238.0
2005 Smiff - 236.8
2003 Holt - 233.9
2002 Marvellous - 231.4
No one else scored over 230 points. Also, I didn't have any data from 2001 (Data Dominator only goes back to 2002).
