Flex WRs are better weekly plays than RBs (1 Viewer)

[greyone]

I touched on this topic in MOPs Week 4 RB to exploit/ avoid thread(Great read...after this topic). Lets elaborate.

Starting WRs as a Flex is a great allyear play and has been. RBs are traditionally the go-to Flex starter. I believe the tides are turning on afterthought in ffb. 3 wrs, low end #2 wrs have been playing well, even the occasional 4wr gets in there. Recievers also use yardage safety blanket, with the chance to be explosive. Maybe its a bi-product of inflated QB and WR production in 2007. Yes, but maybe we all have been ignoring it. Just how the rb-rb, rb-rb-rb, or no qbs in the 1st/2nd roung drafting strategies have come under heated successful debate on both sides recently. Neo-fantasy football strategies have much more recent history to back up, what was once theories just years ago.

Both Champs in my main leagues used WRs all year as their flex last season.

Lets look at some numbers.

Per Footballguys stats WR #1-36. The Statline will show how many wr 3/4's have squeked into the top 20. Which doesn't happen as often for Rbs.

In Week 3 thirteen 3/4 wrs finished in the Top 22. Handful of wr studs are in the 20's.

**wideouts seriving as 3 or 4 wr option

**1 WR Curtis,Kevin PHI 1 0 0 0 11 221 3 0 40.1

2 WR Boldin,Anquan ARI 1 0 0 0 14 181 2 0 30.1

3 WR Williams,Roy DET 1 0 0 0 9 204 1 0 26.4

4 WR Moss,Randy NE 1 0 0 0 5 115 2 0 23.5

5 WR Houshmandzadeh,T.J. CIN 1 1 3 0 12 141 1 1 20.4

**6 WR White,Roddy ATL 1 0 0 0 7 127 1 0 18.7

7 WR Driver,Donald GB 1 0 0 0 6 126 1 0 18.6

**8 WR Jackson,Vincent SD 1 0 0 0 6 98 1 0 15.8

9 WR Burress,Plaxico NYG 1 0 0 0 5 86 1 0 14.6

10 WR Owens,Terrell DAL 1 0 0 0 8 145 0 0 14.5

11 WR Edwards,Braylon CLE 1 0 0 0 4 83 1 0 14.3

**12 WR Jennings,Greg GB 1 0 0 0 4 82 1 0 14.2

**13 WR Mason,Derrick BAL 1 0 0 0 8 79 1 0 13.9

14 WR Johnson,Chad CIN 1 0 0 0 9 138 0 0 13.8

15 WR Branch,Deion SEA 1 0 0 0 6 77 1 0 13.7

**16 WR McDonald,Shaun DET 1 0 0 0 5 76 1 0 13.6

**17 WR Burleson,Nate SEA 1 0 0 0 6 76 1 0 13.6

**18 WR Marshall,Brandon DEN 1 0 0 0 7 133 0 0 13.3

**19 WR Jones,Brandon TEN 1 0 0 0 4 73 1 0 13.3

**20 WR Bowe,Dwayne KC 1 0 0 0 5 71 1 0 13.1

**21 WR Engram,Bobby SEA 1 0 0 0 5 62 1 0 12.2

**22 WR Curry,Ronald OAK 1 0 0 0 3 62 1 0 12.2

23 WR Chambers,Chris MIA 1 0 0 0 6 101 0 0 10.1

24 WR Davis,Craig SD 1 0 0 0 4 31 1 0 9.1

25 WR Coles,Laveranues NYJ 1 0 0 0 3 30 1 0 9.0

26 WR Jacobs,Taylor SF 1 0 0 0 2 26 1 0 8.6

27 WR Fitzgerald,Larry ARI 1 0 0 0 5 85 0 1 8.5

28 WR Wayne,Reggie IND 1 0 0 0 4 84 0 0 8.4

29 WR Moss,Santana WAS 1 1 2 0 3 82 0 0 8.4

30 WR Jones,James GB 1 0 0 0 6 79 0 0 7.9

31 WR Jenkins,Michael ATL 1 0 0 0 6 76 0 0 7.6

32 WR Gaffney,Jabar NE 1 0 0 0 2 15 1 0 7.5

33 WR Berrian,Bernard CHI 1 0 0 0 6 73 0 0 7.3

34 WR Williams,Reggie JAX 1 0 0 0 2 11 1 0 7.1

35 WR Davis,Andre' HOU 1 0 0 0 4 70 0 0 7.0

36 WR Welker,Wes NE 1 0 0 0 6 69 0 0 6.9

Yes WRs are inconsistent. For owners willing to roll the dice WRs will pay larger dividends than RB or be just as reliable in the flex.

Per footballguys stats RB 20-36 from week 3. Here is the target area for Flex Rbs in 10-12 teamers.

***Can someone please show me how to align the grid? Much appreciated.

20 RB Benson,Cedric CHI 1 16 46 1 1 8 0 1 11.4

21 RB Jones,Thomas NYJ 1 25 110 0 2 1 0 0 11.1

22 RB Williams,Carnell TB 1 12 46 1 1 3 0 1 10.9

23 RB Alexander,Shaun SEA 1 21 100 0 2 8 0 0 10.8

24 RB Davenport,Najeh PIT 1 5 47 1 0 0 0 0 10.7

25 RB Morris,Sammy NE 1 12 46 1 0 0 0 0 10.6

26 RB Jackson,Brandon GB 1 6 22 1 3 22 0 0 10.4

27 RB Maroney,Laurence NE 1 19 103 0 0 0 0 0 10.3

28 RB Buckhalter,Correll PHI 1 7 43 1 0 0 0 0 10.3

29 RB Henry,Travis DEN 1 11 35 1 0 0 0 0 9.5

30 RB Pittman,Michael TB 1 7 56 0 3 35 0 0 9.1

31 RB Taylor,Fred JAX 1 17 84 0 0 0 0 0 8.4

32 RB Gado,Samkon HOU 1 6 12 1 3 9 0 0 8.1

33 RB Jones,Kevin DET 1 3 5 1 1 16 0 0 8.1

34 RB Lewis,Jamal CLE 1 15 56 0 2 22 0 0 7.8

35 RB Dunn,Warrick ATL 1 11 55 0 4 13 0 1 6.8

36 RB James,Edgerrin ARI 1 10 57 0 1 10 0 0 6.7

This topic could generate alot of discussion.

Edit: moved things around. Same info different order with colors.

 

[mattyt]

My initial thought is that the quantity of RBs has become greater than the quality. The true feature backs are being used in everyone's #1 and (if you drafted well) #2 RB slots and by the time you get to the 3rd, and/or 4th RB on your roster to potentially put in as a Flex, you are finding more backs that are in a RBBC situation than you did in the past. Guys who used to score more points are now sharing them with other backs. So, now we have more RBs in the pool of potential point scorers, and the overall number of points being scored is spread between too many players. They are simply getting too few opportunities to be as prolific as an average #2 WR or productive #3 WR or TE.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

All things being equal you'd prefer to have a good rb in a flex position over a good wr. More touches=more opportunities for points. As always though it comes down to who's your best option regardless of position. A starting wide receiver is a better flex player than a backup rb or one in a committee.

 

[turleyfan]

As a Jerrious Norwood and Brandon Jackson owner, I can say my Flex RB's have not pulled their weight this year. So I would be tempted to agree with the premise, just based on my own experience. Those of you running Lamont Jordan or Adrian Peterson out there as your Flex, you probably have a different opinion.

I like the idea of using a true RB1 as a Flex, but in my drafts, the depth was at WR. I think the increased number of committees caused people to spend earlier picks on backs than was warranted.

My two Euro...

 

[Cenobite]

Thought provoking topic. I agree with this premise. I did really well last year as Betts as my flex afte Portis' injury. However, that was because he was a true #1. This year guys like Dunn, D. Williams, Julius Jones, are consistently being outscored by #3 WRs. If an injury happens to a prominent back and I have the capable back-up who will now act as a RB1, then I will go with him in my flex. If not, WR3 types will be in as my flex instead of RBBC players.

 

[guavapure]

I agreed with this philosophy and got burned by it last week when I started Reggie Brown over DeShaun Foster. This week I'm plugging in my hot RBBC Foster and when he lays an egg in TB, it will be back to the WR3 for my flex. Great stuff.

 

[Restricted]

If you have an all down RB as a flex it's as good as a WR. The RB by committee has infected the league and thus you can't guarantee those sharing time the touches and the success.

 

[greyone]

My initial thought is that the quantity of RBs has become greater than the quality. The true feature backs are being used in everyone's #1 and (if you drafted well) #2 RB slots and by the time you get to the 3rd, and/or 4th RB on your roster to potentially put in as a Flex, you are finding more backs that are in a RBBC situation than you did in the past. Guys who used to score more points are now sharing them with other backs. So, now we have more RBs in the pool of potential point scorers, and the overall number of points being scored is spread between too many players. They are simply getting too few opportunities to be as prolific as an average #2 WR or productive #3 WR or TE.

Definitely creates more opportunity for wrs to match/surpass rbs that supposedly get more touches. Touches dont always equal production. We just hope it does. The cliche is "rbs get more touches, therefore have more opportunities, and should produce more" In the case of almost half the league RBBC is diminishing those touches and opportunities.

 

[greyone]

I agreed with this philosophy and got burned by it last week when I started Reggie Brown over DeShaun Foster. This week I'm plugging in my hot RBBC Foster and when he lays an egg in TB, it will be back to the WR3 for my flex. Great stuff.

Thats cuz you started Reggie Brown Im not a fan. If you had any of the 13 guys in red in the OP it would not have hurt so much. On a bad day Deshaun will and has outscored Reggie Brown all year.

 

[greyone]

List of 3/4 RB i would sit to start a WR in the Flex. Some of these guys are borderline 2rb.

If you are looking for solid 40-70 yards or 4-7 points go ahead and start these guys. A handful of these guys shouldnt even be in your lineup.

RB Lewis,Jamal

RB Foster,De'shaun

RB White,LenDale

RB Morris,Sammy

RB Brown,Chris

RB Dunn,Warrick

RB Jones,Thomas

RB Green,Ahman...depends on how deep your team is at RB. Alot of owner have him as RB2(*me)

RB Jackson,Brandon

RB Wynn,DeShawn

RB Bell,Tatum

RB Davenport,Najeh

RB Graham,Earnest

RB Jones,Julius

RB Williams,DeAngelo

RB Taylor,Fred

RB Norwood,Jerious

RB Smith,Musa

RB Pittman,Michael

If RBs carry a ypc of 4.00 to be generous. It would tak 5 carries to hit 20 yards or 2 points. WRs can hit that mark in 1 or 2 catches. Less chances for wrs with the same production. Kindaof goes against the cliche.

 

[greyone]

List of WRs outside the usual top 20-24 I would start in the flex to give my team a chance to maximize points

Wes Welker...give you 50+ yards a week

Vincent Jackson...decent redzone target

Shaun Mcdonald...even if Calvin wasn't injured. I would gamble.

Greg Jennings...Might move up the rankings into a WR2 role.

Brandon Marshall...may already a WR2. 1a & 1b wrs in Denver. Turning into a poormans indy.

Any Seattle WR none of them are wr1 or wr2 material...yet.

Ron Curry...Arguably WR 2 already.

 

[CalBear]

See my article on this subject:

For players in the same scoring tier (that is, WRs and RBs who score about the same number of points over the length of the season), WRs and RBs seem basically equivalent in terms of "reliability" (week to week point variance). So, all else being equal, you should start the player you expect to score more points over the course of the season, whether it's WR or RB.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

As a Jerrious Norwood and Brandon Jackson owner, I can say my Flex RB's have not pulled their weight this year. So I would be tempted to agree with the premise, just based on my own experience. Those of you running Lamont Jordan or Adrian Peterson out there as your Flex, you probably have a different opinion.I like the idea of using a true RB1 as a Flex, but in my drafts, the depth was at WR. I think the increased number of committees caused people to spend earlier picks on backs than was warranted.

i agree that it is more disappointing rb's this year than great wr's. i mean, in one league my "top" 2 rb's are s. jackson and m. jones-drew! i'm not so concerned about whether i get b. leonard; d. branch, on my bench, has been outscoring both!

 

[greyone]

See my article on this subject:

For players in the same scoring tier (that is, WRs and RBs who score about the same number of points over the length of the season), WRs and RBs seem basically equivalent in terms of "reliability" (week to week point variance). So, all else being equal, you should start the player you expect to score more points over the course of the season, whether it's WR or RB.

Nice article that is centered around numbers. Seeing more examples of names would help associate or familiarize readers with the numbers. Says exactly what i am thinking but polished with grammer an proper essay format. I was terrible at essay writing. Great to see others are tuned into the same wavelength.

 

[CalBear]

See my article on this subject:

For players in the same scoring tier (that is, WRs and RBs who score about the same number of points over the length of the season), WRs and RBs seem basically equivalent in terms of "reliability" (week to week point variance). So, all else being equal, you should start the player you expect to score more points over the course of the season, whether it's WR or RB.

Nice article that is centered around numbers. Seeing more examples of names would help associate or familiarize readers with the numbers. Says exactly what i am thinking but polished with grammer an proper essay format. I was terrible at essay writing. Great to see others are tuned into the same wavelength.

I generally try to avoid comparing specific players when doing this kind of analysis, partly because I believe that reliability is not predictive for an individual; that is, the fact that someone was extremely unreliable last year (say, Chad Johnson, average=11.2, standard deviation=11.0) doesn't usefully predict whether they'll be unreliable this year. (Johnson so far has average=20.7, standard deviation=10.5, which is a lot more reliable).Of course, if you are choosing a player for a flex spot you have to compare individuals, but then the best you can do is evaluate based on the information you have. (Based on the information I have, I would start Foster over Reggie Brown every day of the week, but that's a different story).

 

[brindrod]

Presently, starting a Sammy Morris or even Davenport as your FLEX is far from being an insane plan. Even Droughns is now a viable option.

WRs such as Mike Furrey or even Reggie Williams is nice option for FLEX.

I'm basing these opinions in 12 Team Redraft standpoint.

 

[Resident A]

I'm going w/ K Curtis at Flex thus week over A Green/Dayne/S Morris/J Jones.

Traditionally, I'd always go w/ a marginal RB over any WR less than WR2 caliber. Recent injuries & RBBC has caused me to play the best matchup.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

See my article on this subject:

For players in the same scoring tier (that is, WRs and RBs who score about the same number of points over the length of the season), WRs and RBs seem basically equivalent in terms of "reliability" (week to week point variance). So, all else being equal, you should start the player you expect to score more points over the course of the season, whether it's WR or RB.

Nice article! Missed that one initially.

 

[greyone]

See my article on this subject:

For players in the same scoring tier (that is, WRs and RBs who score about the same number of points over the length of the season), WRs and RBs seem basically equivalent in terms of "reliability" (week to week point variance). So, all else being equal, you should start the player you expect to score more points over the course of the season, whether it's WR or RB.

Nice article! Missed that one initially.

Any more thoughts?

 

[thecardiackid]

List of WRs outside the usual top 20-24 I would start in the flex to give my team a chance to maximize pointsWes Welker...give you 50+ yards a weekVincent Jackson...decent redzone targetShaun Mcdonald...even if Calvin wasn't injured. I would gamble.Greg Jennings...Might move up the rankings into a WR2 role.Brandon Marshall...may already a WR2. 1a & 1b wrs in Denver. Turning into a poormans indy.Any Seattle WR none of them are wr1 or wr2 material...yet.Ron Curry...Arguably WR 2 already.

Good posting (the icons are down for me...) And interesting topic - nice effort OP.In one league our flex is limited to WR/TE only, so doesn't apply here. But, in another I've been starting Welker @ flex all year over the likes of Norwood, Droughns, M Moore, M Bell & B. Leonard. Though the S Jax injury will change that moving forward. This theory, based upon the season's first 3 weeks, applies even more in a PPR w/ someone like most of the guys listed above. Sammy Morris looks like one of the few getting enough carries for the yds, and also the red zone looks for now.The pending bye weeks will change the outlook and require some creative lineups - including these 'underperforming' RB3/4s due to a lack of other viable options. I'm sure many owners (myself included) were hoping guys like Norwood, Deangelo, Droughns, even MJD would be getting more PT and stats in their RBBCs, but it's been tough to predict. Even *solid* RBBCs like Fred/MJD, Deuce/Bush, etc. have been underperforming thus far.Things tend to change quickly, so this will continue to be a moving target, but for now I agree with the premise of the trend here. As long as you have the right WR 3/4 to plug in.

 

[greyone]

Week 5 Updated to follow trends

#3-4-5 WRs littered all across the board. On avg wrs scored higher than their counterparts at the same ranking or area.

Red = #3WRs ranked between 21-36 per FBG cheatsheets

Green = WRs ranked between 37-48. 3wr+flex leagues. Gut feeling type of start

Blue = WRs ranked beyond 48. Deep gut feeling type of starts

Rush Rush Rush Num Rec Rec Fum Fan

# Pos Wide Receiver NFL GP Att Yds TDs Rec Yds TDs Lost Pts

--- --- --------------------- --- -- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

1 WR Fitzgerald,Larry ARI 1 0 0 0 9 136 1 0 19.6

2 WR Burress,Plaxico NYG 1 0 0 0 5 124 1 0 18.4

3 WR Holt,Torry STL 1 0 0 0 5 89 1 0 14.9

4 WR Jackson,Vincent SD 1 0 0 0 3 84 1 0 14.4

5 WR Jennings,Greg GB 1 0 0 0 4 83 1 0 14.3 6 WR Stallworth,Donte' NE 1 1 12 0 4 65 1 0 13.7

7 WR Northcutt,Dennis JAX 1 0 0 0 4 73 1 0 13.3

8 WR Wayne,Reggie IND 1 1 4 0 7 62 1 0 12.6

9 WR Edwards,Braylon CLE 1 0 0 0 6 110 0 0 11.0

10 WR Carter,Tim CLE 1 0 0 0 3 50 1 0 11.0 11 WR Smith,Steve CAR 1 0 0 0 4 47 1 0 10.7

12 WR Smith,Brad NYJ 1 1 0 0 3 44 1 0 10.4

13 WR Henderson,Devery NO 1 0 0 0 4 101 0 0 10.1 14 WR Randle El,Antwaan WAS 1 0 0 0 7 100 0 0 10.0

15 WR Battle,Arnaz SF 1 0 0 0 3 36 1 0 9.6

16 WR Bennett,Drew STL 1 0 0 0 2 32 1 0 9.2 17 WR Coles,Laveranues NYJ 1 0 0 0 8 89 0 0 8.9

18 WR Parker,Samie KC 1 0 0 0 2 28 1 0 8.8

19 WR Mason,Derrick BAL 1 0 0 0 11 85 0 0 8.5

20 WR Johnson,Bryant ARI 1 0 0 0 6 80 0 0 8.0 21 WR Davis,Andre' HOU 1 0 0 0 4 79 0 0 7.9

22 WR Walter,Kevin HOU 1 1 9 0 5 67 0 0 7.6 23 WR Colbert,Keary CAR 1 0 0 0 4 74 0 0 7.4

24 WR Marshall,Brandon DEN 1 0 0 0 7 72 0 1 7.2

25 WR Gonzalez,Anthony IND 1 0 0 0 7 71 0 0 7.1

26 WR Bowe,Dwayne KC 1 0 0 0 4 70 0 0 7.0 27 WR Martinez,Glenn DEN 1 0 0 0 6 70 0 0 7.0

28 WR Wilson,Cedrick PIT 1 0 0 0 5 69 0 0 6.9

29 WR Jones,James GB 1 0 0 0 5 61 0 2 6.1

30 WR Hilliard,Ike TB 1 0 0 0 8 58 0 0 5.8 31 WR White,Roddy ATL 1 1 -2 0 3 55 0 0 5.3 32 WR Driver,Donald GB 1 0 0 0 4 51 0 0 5.1

33 WR Galloway,Joey TB 1 0 0 0 4 50 0 0 5.0

34 WR Moss,Randy NE 1 0 0 0 3 46 0 0 4.6

35 WR Booker,Marty MIA 1 0 0 0 5 45 0 0 4.5

36 WR Williams,Demetrius BAL 1 0 0 0 4 39 0 0 3.9

Rbs did fairly well this week.

RED= #3RB per FBG weekly cheatsheet 20-36(typical flex rb 10-12 teamer)

Green=RBs ranked beyond top 36

3 of 16 rbs ranked between 20-36 landed inside the top 12.

4 of 16 rbs landed inside top 20

5 of 16 rbs landed inside top 27

6 of 16 rbs landed inside top 34

37.5% 7 out of 16 rbs ranked between 20-36 landed inside the top 40rbs.

Rush Rush Rush Num Rec Rec Fum Fan

# Pos Running Back NFL GP Att Yds TDs Rec Yds TDs Lost Pts

--- --- --------------------- --- -- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

1 RB Keith,Kenton IND 1 28 121 2 5 37 0 0 27.8

2 RB Davenport,Najeh PIT 1 7 58 2 4 38 0 0 21.6

3 RB Brown,Ronnie MIA 1 23 114 1 5 39 0 0 21.3

4 RB Turner,Michael SD 1 10 147 1 0 0 0 0 20.7

5 RB Sellers,Mike WAS 1 5 24 1 3 36 1 0 18.0

6 RB Jones-Drew,Maurice JAX 1 9 82 1 3 30 0 0 17.2

7 RB Jacobs,Brandon NYG 1 20 100 1 0 0 0 1 16.0

8 RB Wynn,DeShawn GB 1 13 78 1 1 13 0 0 15.1

9 RB Tomlinson,Ladainian SD 1 21 67 0 3 73 0 0 14.0

10 RB McGahee,Willis BAL 1 22 88 0 7 48 0 0 13.6

11 RB Leonard,Brian STL 1 18 102 0 5 33 0 0 13.5

12 RB Benson,Cedric CHI 1 27 64 1 1 5 0 0 12.9 13 RB Ward,Derrick NYG 1 13 56 1 3 8 0 0 12.4

14 RB Bush,Reggie NO 1 21 67 0 9 52 0 0 11.9

15 RB Morris,Sammy NE 1 21 102 0 2 9 0 0 11.1

16 RB Dayne,Ron HOU 1 16 40 1 1 5 0 0 10.5

17 RB Parker,Willie PIT 1 28 102 0 0 0 0 0 10.2

18 RB Wright,Jason CLE 1 15 59 0 4 43 0 0 10.2

19 RB James,Edgerrin ARI 1 26 88 0 1 9 0 0 9.7

20 RB Brown,Chris TEN 1 10 27 1 2 7 0 0 9.4

21 RB Portis,Clinton WAS 1 18 72 0 2 19 0 1 9.1

22 RB Morency,Vernand GB 1 9 43 0 7 48 0 0 9.1

23 RB Gore,Frank SF 1 16 52 0 3 23 0 0 7.5

24 RB Karney,Mike NO 1 1 2 1 1 9 0 0 7.1

25 RB Henry,Travis DEN 1 16 65 0 0 0 0 0 6.5

26 RB Jones,Kevin DET 1 11 48 0 2 17 0 0 6.5

27 RB Taylor,Fred JAX 1 16 51 0 1 9 0 0 6.0

28 RB Foster,De'shaun CAR 1 19 59 0 0 0 0 0 5.9

29 RB Jones,Thomas NYJ 1 13 36 0 2 14 0 0 5.0

30 RB Pinner,Artose ATL 1 1 49 0 0 0 0 0 4.9

31 RB Peterson,Adrian CHI 1 3 12 0 2 32 0 0 4.4

32 RB Gado,Samkon HOU 1 8 19 0 2 24 0 0 4.3

33 RB Minor,Travis STL 1 3 12 0 5 31 0 0 4.3

34 RB Dunn,Warrick ATL 1 10 27 0 2 12 0 0 3.9

35 RB Arrington,J.J. ARI 1 1 4 0 1 32 0 0 3.6

36 RB Dawson,Clifton IND 1 8 24 0 1 9 0 0 3.3

37 RB White,LenDale TEN 1 12 32 0 0 0 0 1 3.2

38 RB Alexander,Shaun SEA 1 11 25 0 3 7 0 0 3.2

39 RB Wilson,Kris KC 1 0 0 0 2 31 0 0 3.1

40 RB Betts,Ladell WAS 1 8 22 0 2 8 0 0 3.0