Fool's Gold or Goldmine? (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

We've seen a number of players that seemed to come from nowhere this season and post some good fantasy numbers, but what are their chances for next year?

I'm looking at players that had moderate or lower prospects in August, not necessarily the Reggie Bush's or Frank Gores that outperformed their draft spots. I'm looking for players that were drafted after the 100-120th pick or later in your August / September drafts, if at all, but would definitely be amongst the Top 100-120 looking back upon the 2006 season.

I'll try and keep this first post updated, but I'll throw out some names to get us started:



Quarterback

Joey Harrington

Vince Young

Jeff Garcia

Tony Romo

Jason Campbell

Steve McNair

Jon Kitna

Running Back

Ron Dayne

Cedric Benson

Ladell Betts

Marion Barber III

Jerious Norwood

Maurice Jones-Drew

Travis Henry

Wide Receiver

Bernard Barrian

Marques Colston

Mike Furrey

DJ Hackett

Mark Clayton

Ronald Curry

Arnaz Battle

Wes Welker

Reche Caldwell

Jerricho Cotchery

Tight End

Kellen Winslow

Ben Troupe

My recommended format:

Player and team:

2006 peformance:

2007 (and beyond) prospects, and why:

 

[Cowboys#1]

the most obvious gold mines right now are

qb - tony romo, vince young

rb - MJD

wr - marques colston

te - winslow

the reason i left off so many rb's is because of questions over their roles in the offseason.. MBIII can certainly be a goldmine if the roles stay the same or if JJ is moved but in the role he is in now he is playing as well as he can.. the reason i have MJD up there is because right now he is playing so lights out that JAX is almost forced to play him as much as possible.. things change though so i can see T. Henry and MBIII joining the goldmine list

 

[BigTex]

Drew Brees: NO

He's injury caused some concerened but proved to be a Goldmine.

4372 @ 291.5 a game with 26 TD and 11 ints, he'll go pretty high next year.

 

[BigTex]

Drew Brees: NOHe's injury caused some concerened but proved to be a Goldmine.4372 @ 291.5 a game with 26 TD and 11 ints, he'll go pretty high next year.

For 2007 and beyond, I see no reason he can't be successful. He has a young good team around him. It's very possible that he could maintain 3500+ and 20+ TDs.

 

[x260bm]

Quarterback

Joey Harrington – He goes back to being the backup. Harrington’s ceiling is actually pretty low even if he gets a chance to be the man again.

Vince Young – I think he has a real good year, although it will be impossible for him to live up to the hype. He will have to finish in the top 3 just to justify his draft position. He is going to be taken ahead of Manning in some drafts (see Vick in 2003). I am afraid it is going to be hard to get any value out of drafting VY next year.

Jeff Garcia – I doubt he finds a starting jig next year. Probably will be a backup for the rest of his career.

Tony Romo – He probably won’t produce at his per game average this year. I see no reason why he won’t be a top 10 QB next year though.

Jason Campbell - Not ready for prime time yet. I don’t expect him to do a whole lot next year but whenever you are dealing with a young QB you should keep an eye on him. If he does turn the corner it won’t cost a lot to get him the first few weeks.

Steve McNair – Obviously his best years are behind him. Being in Baltimore does limit his value somewhat. He is a QB by committee candidate next year.

Jon Kitna – Like many Lions his short term future is really up in the air at this point. Long term he does not have a future.

Running Back

Ron Dayne – If he was ever going to bust out and be a fantasy stud he would have done it 4 years ago. The only way he has value next year is if he finds a similar situation where a team has no other choice but him.

Cedric Benson – He is going to be part of a committee whether or not TJ stays or goes. I have not seen anything out him that suggests he can carry the load by himself. He is a situational player who is going to get most of the goal line carries. If you draft him as your RB2 you will be disappointed.

Ladell Betts – Good player in a bad situation. If they get rid of Clinton watch out. It really hurt his value when he resigned.

Marion Barber III – MBIII is a stud in the making. I would not worry about JJ.

Jerious Norwood – His value for next year depends on whether Dunn returns or not. If not he is a RB2/RB3. He seems to get dinged up a lot. Make sure you have a backup option if you rely on him.

Maurice Jones-Drew – I think he is a strong candidate for a top 5 finish. I seriously doubt they can keep him on the bench next year even if Taylor comes back. He is the most impressive player on this list for me. Right now his ceiling is sky high.

Travis Henry – His best years are behind him and like Dayne lucked into a good situation. It is hard for me to see him starting for any team next year.

Wide Receiver

Bernard Barrian – He is a rising player whose value is closely tied to Grossman’s progress. He is a home run hitter who is going to have big games. He is also going to have a lot of games where he doesn’t do anything. He is going to be unpredictable even for a WR.

Marques Colston – If he stays healthy a top 10 finish should be assured. They guy has a lot of talent and is in a very good situation. He is defiantly a play you want to own in Dynasty leagues. He win be good for a long time.

Mike Furrey – He is a converted DB that is older than most people realize. I don’t know when most WRs break out, but I am pretty sure it is before they are 30. It would not surprise me at all if the Loins cleaned house and Furrey never started another NFL game again.

DJ Hackett – It is going to be hard to get any production out of him if he remains the 5th option on his own team. Neither of the WRs in front of him in front of him can be considered old.

Mark Clayton – Mark is another good young player who is improving. I don’t think you are going to get WR1 numbers out of him anytime soon. He is getting there but it will be a few more years. He is a very good WR3 with WR2 upside.

Ronald Curry – The Raiders are another team that is impossible to predict for next year. I think his value may be at its peak right now.

Arnaz Battle – As long as the 49ers do not upgrade their WRs, you can expect pretty much the same numbers next year. I seriously doubt he will ever put up fantasy starter quality numbers though.

Wes Welker – I don’t what team he will play for next year. He does not have top end talent, but just seems to be a guy that produces. I think he is worth watching next year.

Reche Caldwell – Patriots receivers are notoriously difficult to start in general because Brady does a real good job of spreading the ball around. I would have to guess that they upgrade their receivers next year. Caldwell has had plenty of chances and his value may also be at its peak.

Jerricho Cotchery – I have liked what I have seen out of Jerricho this year. He has better speed than most people realize. He is on an up and coming team and Coles is getting most of the coverage attention. I think he will be a WR2/WR3 next year. He has the possibility of becoming a WR1 later down the road.

Tight End

Kellen Winslow – Winslow will compete with Gates for the best fantasy TE next year. He has a lot of talent. Now if he could act like a professional…..

Ben Troupe – I can’t tell you why he is on the list since he only has 13 catches this year. For Fantasy purposes he is a mediocre TE at best.

There, I have rated 26 players. Feel free to hack away.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

QuarterbackJoey Harrington – He goes back to being the backup. Harrington’s ceiling is actually pretty low even if he gets a chance to be the man again.Vince Young – I think he has a real good year, although it will be impossible for him to live up to the hype. He will have to finish in the top 3 just to justify his draft position. He is going to be taken ahead of Manning in some drafts (see Vick in 2003). I am afraid it is going to be hard to get any value out of drafting VY next year.Jeff Garcia – I doubt he finds a starting jig next year. Probably will be a backup for the rest of his career.Tony Romo – He probably won’t produce at his per game average this year. I see no reason why he won’t be a top 10 QB next year though.Jason Campbell - Not ready for prime time yet. I don’t expect him to do a whole lot next year but whenever you are dealing with a young QB you should keep an eye on him. If he does turn the corner it won’t cost a lot to get him the first few weeks.Steve McNair – Obviously his best years are behind him. Being in Baltimore does limit his value somewhat. He is a QB by committee candidate next year.Jon Kitna – Like many Lions his short term future is really up in the air at this point. Long term he does not have a future.Running BackRon Dayne – If he was ever going to bust out and be a fantasy stud he would have done it 4 years ago. The only way he has value next year is if he finds a similar situation where a team has no other choice but him.Cedric Benson – He is going to be part of a committee whether or not TJ stays or goes. I have not seen anything out him that suggests he can carry the load by himself. He is a situational player who is going to get most of the goal line carries. If you draft him as your RB2 you will be disappointed. Ladell Betts – Good player in a bad situation. If they get rid of Clinton watch out. It really hurt his value when he resigned.Marion Barber III – MBIII is a stud in the making. I would not worry about JJ.Jerious Norwood – His value for next year depends on whether Dunn returns or not. If not he is a RB2/RB3. He seems to get dinged up a lot. Make sure you have a backup option if you rely on him.Maurice Jones-Drew – I think he is a strong candidate for a top 5 finish. I seriously doubt they can keep him on the bench next year even if Taylor comes back. He is the most impressive player on this list for me. Right now his ceiling is sky high.Travis Henry – His best years are behind him and like Dayne lucked into a good situation. It is hard for me to see him starting for any team next year.Wide ReceiverBernard Barrian – He is a rising player whose value is closely tied to Grossman’s progress. He is a home run hitter who is going to have big games. He is also going to have a lot of games where he doesn’t do anything. He is going to be unpredictable even for a WR.Marques Colston – If he stays healthy a top 10 finish should be assured. They guy has a lot of talent and is in a very good situation. He is defiantly a play you want to own in Dynasty leagues. He win be good for a long time.Mike Furrey – He is a converted DB that is older than most people realize. I don’t know when most WRs break out, but I am pretty sure it is before they are 30. It would not surprise me at all if the Loins cleaned house and Furrey never started another NFL game again.DJ Hackett – It is going to be hard to get any production out of him if he remains the 5th option on his own team. Neither of the WRs in front of him in front of him can be considered old.Mark Clayton – Mark is another good young player who is improving. I don’t think you are going to get WR1 numbers out of him anytime soon. He is getting there but it will be a few more years. He is a very good WR3 with WR2 upside.Ronald Curry – The Raiders are another team that is impossible to predict for next year. I think his value may be at its peak right now.Arnaz Battle – As long as the 49ers do not upgrade their WRs, you can expect pretty much the same numbers next year. I seriously doubt he will ever put up fantasy starter quality numbers though.Wes Welker – I don’t what team he will play for next year. He does not have top end talent, but just seems to be a guy that produces. I think he is worth watching next year.Reche Caldwell – Patriots receivers are notoriously difficult to start in general because Brady does a real good job of spreading the ball around. I would have to guess that they upgrade their receivers next year. Caldwell has had plenty of chances and his value may also be at its peak.Jerricho Cotchery – I have liked what I have seen out of Jerricho this year. He has better speed than most people realize. He is on an up and coming team and Coles is getting most of the coverage attention. I think he will be a WR2/WR3 next year. He has the possibility of becoming a WR1 later down the road. Tight EndKellen Winslow – Winslow will compete with Gates for the best fantasy TE next year. He has a lot of talent. Now if he could act like a professional…..Ben Troupe – I can’t tell you why he is on the list since he only has 13 catches this year. For Fantasy purposes he is a mediocre TE at best. There, I have rated 26 players. Feel free to hack away.

A few comments on some WRs:I'd be shocked if Furrey wasn't back with the Lions and performing well again next year. He doesn't exactly have the pedigree so he flies well under the radar, but the dude can play and he puts up numbers - he's going to catch over 90 passes for over 1000 yards this year. If Martz is back (and after the season the Lions O has had, who else really wants him?), Furrey is a solid WR2 again next year in ppr. Ronald Curry could easily be the Raiders #1 next year - Moss and Porter are both possibilities to leave. He's finally healthy, and he has always had a ton of talent. See his numbers the last 3 weeks of this year and the last 2 weeks of 2004 for his potential. This guy was high school player of the year in North Carolina in football and basketball, and played high level D1 college athletics in two sports. This guy just screams great athlete to me, and the only thing that has held him back has been his health. He's big (6'2", 220), strong, and fast enough (4.59 out of college as a QB). He's still learning the WR position, so there's a lot of upside. I absolutely love him in dynasty leagues. I'm sure I like him more than most, but I see his floor as WR2 and his ceiling (if he gets a good QB and Moss and Porter both leave) as top 8 or so in ppr. I like Hackett a little better than you do, too. He's not the #5 option, he's #3. He is clearly ahead of Burleson, and I think he's definitely ahead of Engram, especially next year. It wouldn't at all surprise me to see either DJax or Branch gone next year and Hackett step nicely into a starting role. For dynasty purposes, I think he starts somewhere within 2 years and does well. Out of 26 players, I only disagreed with 3 assessments. Nice list.

 

[Widbil83]

Maroney = manly next year.

 

[RoarinSonoran]

1.01 Ron Dayne

 

[Blue-Kun]

Arnaz Battle – As long as the 49ers do not upgrade their WRs, you can expect pretty much the same numbers next year. I seriously doubt he will ever put up fantasy starter quality numbers though.

I actually think Battle has a higher upside next year than ever before. A lot of is dependent on Alex Smith making some strides in his 3rd year as the starter. However, you can see some significant improvements already in the receiving situation. This year Battle saw a 33% rise in his targets and he also has the benefit of only competing with Vernon Davis and Gore for receptions for at least the first 2 games. With Bryant suspended and very similar numbers coming from Battle this year from less targets, not to mention Bryant's attitude problems, it wouldn't shock me if Battle ended up being our #1 WR in 07. Battle is hard for me to describe as a receiver. He's not as explosive as the top guys and doesn't have any notable freakish physical ability. However he runs solid routes, usually can get separation, seems to have a good work ethic and is one of the most sure-handed guys I've seen in a while. Rarely do I see him drop a ball that's halfway catchable; even when taking a big hit. His reception numbers from spotty QB play can help attest to this.He may not put up anything more than WR#2 numbers, but I believe he's worth keeping in mind for how late you'll be able to grab him. Especially if he ends up snagging more targets away from Bryant. Worst-case could be a good start for the first 2-3 weeks while Bryant is out.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

...There, I have rated 26 players. Feel free to hack away.

x260bm,Thanks for the informative discussion points. That's what I was hoping for.Anyone have other names to add?

 

[tribecalledjeff]

...There, I have rated 26 players. Feel free to hack away.

x260bm,Thanks for the informative discussion points. That's what I was hoping for.Anyone have other names to add?

Jeff, what are your thoughts on Ron Curry?

 

[BoltBacker]

GOLD MINE

QB

Cambell - I believe Gibbs will be back and Cambell is his guy. The offense wasn't spectacular this year but I've been impressed with the throws he can make and the youth of the receivers. He'll be a cheap backup and imo could be worth starting by the end of next season.

RB

MJD - He's got too much talent and the guys that are competing for carries are either old/expensive(Taylor) or never healthy(Jones). Anytime that guy has touched the field this season he's produced big.

Norwood - Similar to MJD he's just been too productive in his limited action not to see more and the guy he's competing with for carries is getting up there in age.

Maroney - See above.

WR

Colston - Brees plays favorites and when Colston was healthy he was a Brees favorite to be sure. Horn is getting up there and Dever simply can't catch more than a coupld of passes a game even if he can get open all game long.

Cotchery - Too talented not to produce even if the situation around him changed(and it shouldn't)

FOOL'S GOLD

QB

Young - Invaluable NFL QB... not convinced he's a fantasy stud or ever will be. Great cantidate for "drafted too early every season due to name recognition instead of fantasy production".

Romo - Too many think way too highly of him plus his best WR's are all age concerns and may have a whole new coaching regime next season. He'll go way too early in every league.

McNair - One of my favorite QB's ever in the NFL and a great fit for that BAL team.... but again will be drafted way too high based on his FF production.

Garcia - He's a great story this year but announcers are kidding themselves if they think any contending team in the NFL is going to bring Garcia in. No team that's rebuilding is going to take him on. He's a perfect fit as a bakcup QB on a contending team but I don't see any starting jobs out there for this guy.

RB

Dayne/BarberIII/Benson/Betts/Henry - A few of these guys have talent but who has any idea how many carries they'll get. Dart board players... grab one in the mid rounds if he falls and hope you guess right which one gets the reps.

WR

Furrey/Battle/Welker/Caldwell/Curry - All these guys have had little or no competition and a mid-level FA WR or a high draft choice could very easily cut into the production of any of them a great deal. They've put up the production but imo it was as much a result of situation as anything else.

 

[Mapmaker]

Anyone have other names to add?

WR - Vince Jackson, Chargers - an improving young WR with a young and improving QB, terrific size 6'5" 240, good hands and a good pedigree (2005 2nd round - 29th pick); with McCardell slowing down due to age/role I think this kid has an opportunity to step into the WR1 spot for the Chargers and could make a nice undervalued fantasy WR2 WR - Brandon Marshall, Broncos - same as above, great opportunity with the passing of the torch from Rod Smith, terrific young QB with one rocket of an arm, great size for a WR 6'4 222 and with Walker the proven WR1 in Denver defences will have a very hard time with this kid 1:1WR - Patrick Crayton, Cowboys - if TO's out of Dallas next season this kid has the stuff to take over the WR 1 role in Dallas, good size 6' 205, good hands and will be in his 3rd season traditionally a breakout year for WR's. Romo is a young up and coming QB with a good arm and a knack of spreading the ball around ala Brady; Crayton could make for a sneaky good WR2/3 fantasy pick to be had late in next years draft

 

[zamboni]

Cotchery - Too talented not to produce even if the situation around him changed(and it shouldn't)

Agree here. Keep in mind that this was only his first year as a starter, and he'll only get better. Runs great routes and rarely drops anything. The key risks are the continued role of Coles as the #1 guy (given the chemistry with Pennington), as well as the possibility of the team bringing in a true pass-catching TE (Gonzalez?).

 

[my man otis]

I'll add a quick thought here:

Gold - Vince Young. This kid can flat out play. Projected out to 16 starts he would have 700 rushing yards, which matches up very well to anything Vick can do (in a regular year). I think he's got a very good shot at 2800 yards passing and 18-20 TDs - very Vick-like, if not better, at what will probably be a much lower price. If he can get his comp% up to 55-57ish I see a great season next year.

In my league he's top 5 in QB points over the last 2 months. I think his low season total will cause him to be overlooked in drafts next year. He'll be one guy I'll be targeting.

 

[FUBAR]

GOLD:



Quarterback

Vince Young

Jeff Garcia

Tony Romo

Running Back

Marion Barber III

Maurice Jones-Drew

Wide Receiver

Marques Colston

Mark Clayton

Tight End

Kellen Winslow

 

[Donnybrook]

QuarterbackJeff Garcia – I doubt he finds a starting jig next year. Probably will be a backup for the rest of his career.

I agree. I can't see how he can be anything but fools gold.

 

[noneother]

what are opinions of Brandon Jones and Demetrius Williams?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Arnaz Battle – As long as the 49ers do not upgrade their WRs, you can expect pretty much the same numbers next year. I seriously doubt he will ever put up fantasy starter quality numbers though.

I actually think Battle has a higher upside next year than ever before. A lot of is dependent on Alex Smith making some strides in his 3rd year as the starter. However, you can see some significant improvements already in the receiving situation. This year Battle saw a 33% rise in his targets and he also has the benefit of only competing with Vernon Davis and Gore for receptions for at least the first 2 games. With Bryant suspended and very similar numbers coming from Battle this year from less targets, not to mention Bryant's attitude problems, it wouldn't shock me if Battle ended up being our #1 WR in 07. Battle is hard for me to describe as a receiver. He's not as explosive as the top guys and doesn't have any notable freakish physical ability. However he runs solid routes, usually can get separation, seems to have a good work ethic and is one of the most sure-handed guys I've seen in a while. Rarely do I see him drop a ball that's halfway catchable; even when taking a big hit. His reception numbers from spotty QB play can help attest to this.He may not put up anything more than WR#2 numbers, but I believe he's worth keeping in mind for how late you'll be able to grab him. Especially if he ends up snagging more targets away from Bryant. Worst-case could be a good start for the first 2-3 weeks while Bryant is out.

I've always liked Battle, but soured on him this preseason when his knees were already barking at him. I figured him for a candidate for an early end to his career due to deterioration in his knees, but he looked better and better as the year went on.He and Ronald Curry are both looking like great tough possession NFL WR2 types in their offense that could put up numbers of a NFL WR1 if their teams don't get a true go-to option through the draft or free agency this offseason.

 

[DropKick]

I like how the rookie QBs look going into next season; Leinart, Young and Cutler should be very interesting, especially in dynasty/keeper formats.

At WR, I'll go with the Brandons; Marshall and Jones. Marshall has a great opportunity as the #2 in Denver and Jones appears to be back from his injury and should mature with Young. Depending on what happens with the TO saga, a nice WR could emerge in Dallas (Crayton, Hurd?).

Lots of things can change in the off-season but you have to like MJDs prospects with the liklihood of Taylor leaving. Same goes for Maroney. The Michael Turner situation will be interesting. He goes way up my list if he finds a new home.

 

[JohnnyU]

Cedric Benson – He is going to be part of a committee whether or not TJ stays or goes. I have not seen anything out him that suggests he can carry the load by himself. He is a situational player who is going to get most of the goal line carries. If you draft him as your RB2 you will be disappointed. There, I have rated 26 players. Feel free to hack away.

Sorry, but "can't carry the load"? If anyone can carry the "load" it's Benson. He's a bruiser that fights for the extra yards, and I'll say that he's the type of back that will get better as the game goes along as he gets more carries. "situational back"? LOL. Once the car keys are handed over to Benson he will prove to be a stud RB, mark my words on that. When it's cold or sloppy in Chicago, Bears fans will be glad they have Cedric Benson as he's running over some helpless DB.

 

[Gr00vus]

I think you might want to add Scheffler to the TE discussion. Seems like he's figuring things out now, and Cutler looks for him. Good hands.

 

[David Yudkin]

FOOL'S GOLDQBYoung - Invaluable NFL QB... not convinced he's a fantasy stud or ever will be. Great cantidate for "drafted too early every season due to name recognition instead of fantasy production".

I haven't read the whole thread, but there have been a few people mirroring this opinion, to which I ask . . . WHY?He's been the #3 QB the past 6 weeks and should only continue to improve. And I doubt many people will draft him ahead of Peyton (as was suggested).I never figured out what people have against running QBs. People STILL loathe Vick, even with him ranking as the #4 QB this year.

 

[x260bm]

Cedric Benson – He is going to be part of a committee whether or not TJ stays or goes. I have not seen anything out him that suggests he can carry the load by himself. He is a situational player who is going to get most of the goal line carries. If you draft him as your RB2 you will be disappointed. There, I have rated 26 players. Feel free to hack away.

Sorry, but "can't carry the load"? If anyone can carry the "load" it's Benson. He's a bruiser that fights for the extra yards, and I'll say that he's the type of back that will get better as the game goes along as he gets more carries. "situational back"? LOL. Once the car keys are handed over to Benson he will prove to be a stud RB, mark my words on that. When it's cold or sloppy in Chicago, Bears fans will be glad they have Cedric Benson as he's running over some helpless DB.

Benson was the 4th pick in the draft and he can’t even beat out TJ. He is not behind LT or SA. He is behind THOMAS JONES. TJ is the draft bust who could not beat out Michael Pittman on two different teams. Benson has a 3.7 YPC. He has only had one run this year of 20 yards or more. How is he going to run over DBs if he can barely get past the line of scrimmage? The Bears have played really bad teams this year too. Here are Benson’s numbers for those games.11 for 34 vs GB10 for 25 vs DET11 for 37 vs SEA14 for 48 vs BUF1 for 4 vs ARZ0 for 0 vs MIN8 for 26 vs SF8 for 34 vs MIA6 for 7 vs NYG10 for 51 vs NYJ10 for 46 vs NE9 for 60 vs MIN16 for 64 vs STL15 for 53 vs TB15 for 49 vs DETHe has had 2 games where his YPC was over 5 this year. He does not catch many passes. They take him out on 3rd downs. He barely plays when the team is behind. They do not put him in for goal line carries. He causes problems in the locker room because he is a head case. Not doing anything until the 4th quarter is not going to work with Grossman at QB. When things are not going his way, he gets frustrated and starts throwing picks. The only thing that I can see he has going for him, is that he was a great college player. Unfortunately, you don’t get to play against Baylor ever year in the NFL. Some players make the transition. Others do not.

 

[H.K.]

Quarterback

Joey Harrington - avoid

Vince Young - Stud in the making

Jeff Garcia - If he is a starter on a good team, buy...pass in any other scenario other than a hancuff to McNabb

Tony Romo - Interesting to see how he rebounds after a bad game, but right now I am still not sold on him. Inyteresting to see if Owens is back, too.

Jason Campbell - Good potential, worth a cheap price

Steve McNair - This has to be his last hurrah, can't see him staying healthy in 07

Jon Kitna - Interesting prospect if OL gets help.

Running Back

Ron Dayne - Fools gold

Cedric Benson - Depends on TJones

Ladell Betts - $ if Portis is dealt, which I doubt

Marion Barber III - Great TD league guy

Jerious Norwood - Me likey

Maurice Jones-Drew - :drool:

Travis Henry - Shh! 2007 value pick.

Wide Receiver

Bernard Barrian - meh

Marques Colston - Stud

Mike Furrey - PPR bye week filler

DJ Hackett - no

Mark Clayton -

Ronald Curry - Who knows? Oakland is a mess, too early to call until coaching situation is clearer. Probably the safest thing to do is avoid all Raiders

Arnaz Battle - Not a fan

Wes Welker - Return league wonder

Reche Caldwell - Potential WR3 in PPR

Jerricho Cotchery - another potential WR3 in PPR

Tight End

Kellen Winslow - Stud

Ben Troupe - Always seems to disappoint

 

[x260bm]

FOOL'S GOLDQBYoung - Invaluable NFL QB... not convinced he's a fantasy stud or ever will be. Great cantidate for "drafted too early every season due to name recognition instead of fantasy production".

I haven't read the whole thread, but there have been a few people mirroring this opinion, to which I ask . . . WHY?He's been the #3 QB the past 6 weeks and should only continue to improve. And I doubt many people will draft him ahead of Peyton (as was suggested).I never figured out what people have against running QBs. People STILL loathe Vick, even with him ranking as the #4 QB this year.

Unfortunately there is usually not much difference between QB #3 and QB #8 at the end of the year. Every thread with VY in the title gets 300 replies. I think there is a huge amount of hype building with him.

 

[David Yudkin]

FOOL'S GOLDQBYoung - Invaluable NFL QB... not convinced he's a fantasy stud or ever will be. Great cantidate for "drafted too early every season due to name recognition instead of fantasy production".

I haven't read the whole thread, but there have been a few people mirroring this opinion, to which I ask . . . WHY?He's been the #3 QB the past 6 weeks and should only continue to improve. And I doubt many people will draft him ahead of Peyton (as was suggested).I never figured out what people have against running QBs. People STILL loathe Vick, even with him ranking as the #4 QB this year.

Unfortunately there is usually not much difference between QB #3 and QB #8 at the end of the year. Every thread with VY in the title gets 300 replies. I think there is a huge amount of hype building with him.

Since 1990, the average scoring differential between the #3 and #8 QB has been 49 points per year -- obviously more than that in a league that counts all TD as 6 points. This year that difference should be around 60 points.While I have not given much consideration as of yet for who will get drafted where in 2007, I doubt Young will be drafted as a Top 5 QB next year (although I think he has a very could shot ranking there).

 

[Duckboy]

Here we go:

Quarterback

Joey Harrington - Fool's Gold - Good backup QB, can fill in in a pinch, but has shown why Detroit tossed him overboard. Easily behind Culpepper when he's healthy, and not worth much more than a spot start if CPep is still out.

Vince Young - Goldmine - He is being hyped, but I think justifiably. Won't be a Top 3 guy next year, but has that run/pass combination that you look for. Will score like Vick but without the wild swings. Borderline top 10 next year, sky could be the limit after that.

Jeff Garcia - Fool's Gold (unless you have McNabb) - Good fill-in, just don't see him as the full time guy anymore.

Tony Romo - ??? - Buy if TO comes back, but if not the weaponry you'd want to see isn't there, and he just doesn't seem to elevate those around him otherwise. Plus possible Parcells retirement and who knows what system will be in place.

Jason Campbell - Goldmine - My pick for next year's Phillip Rivers. Good weapons, strong arm, great system, and with Portis won't be asked to do it all. Trent Green type numbers of past years.

Steve McNair - Fool's Gold - Will be adequate, but too much of an injury risk.

Jon Kitna - Fool's Gold - Brady Quinn's next home, so back to the mentor role.

Running Back

Ron Dayne - Fool's Gold - Someone else will be brought in or drafted.

Cedric Benson - Goldmine - If TJ is still there look to see the same split as this year, maybe slight more to Benson, which gives him value. If TJ gets moved, could be borderline RB1.

Ladell Betts - Fool's Gold - Will spell Portis short of injury, which isn't out of the question. Probably one of the top backups to take though.

Marion Barber III - Goldmine - Better overall than JJ, I think he'll take over the starting role next year. Definitely a Top 10 guy if JJ gets moved (doubt that happens though).

Jerious Norwood - ??? - Tough call here. Goldmine if Dunn moves on or to the background, but I think he's a year away.

Maurice Jones-Drew - Goldmine - Will lose a few TDs to Greg Jones (if healthy) but has made Freddie expendable.

Travis Henry - Fool's Gold - Will be White's opportunity next year for at least a mjor split (see Chicago).

Wide Receiver

Bernard Berrian - Fool's Gold - I don't see him as the permanent solution and Grossman is too volatile.

Marques Colston - Goldmine - Brees looks early and often to Colston and I see that continuing. Top 15 WR with possible upside.

Mike Furrey - Goldmine - WR2 in a Martz offense? Check.

DJ Hackett - Fool's Gold - May get some slot looks, but has really only had a chance due to injury (Engram/DJax). WR4 otherwise.

Mark Clayton - Goldmine - Top WR option in Baltimore, though that isn't saying a lot, but can score at anytime. Just don't send him on any more reverses.

Ronald Curry - Goldmine - Offense can only go up in Oakland, and he'll be WR1 next year.

Arnaz Battle - Fool's Gold - Option 4 in the SF offense.

Wes Welker - ??? - Depends on scoring - good slot receiver with bonus for return yardage. TD heavy or non-PPR, stay away.

Reche Caldwell - Fool's Gold - Too many options to Brady to really consistently put one guy above another.

Jerricho Cotchery - Goldmine - This guy just makes plays. I think he'll actually go up next year as Chad looks his way more often.

Tight End

Kellen Winslow - Goldmine - Easily top-tier TE.

Ben Troupe - Fool's Gold - Scaife has just plain outplayed him.

My adds and thoughts (1 each)

Rex Grossman - Fool's Gold - I don't expect the Bears to have this kind of offensive outburst again, and this guy is too inconsistent - 4 TDs/0 INTs one week, 0/4 the next.

Ahman Green - ??? - One of the last "starting" Rbs drafted in most of my leagues. Goldmine if he rups and Farve returns, but situational if he moves on.

Greg Jennings - Goldmine - Came a long way in year one. Possibility of a Mark Clayton-type year next year.

Owen Daniels - Goldmine - If a QB other than Carr is there, look for good numbers in the Kubiak system.

 

[Bruno2]

Quarterback

Joey Harrington- Fool's Gold- Joey's career has been plagued by inconsistency. Going to Miami was his chance to prove all the naysayers wrong, while he got off to a decent start, turnovers and bad decision making finally led to his benching. Does anybody who is benched in favor of Cleo Lemon have a promising future in the NFL?

Vince Young- Goldmine- I admit, I was not that high on Young coming out of college, watching him play at the NFL level he's definitely got the intangibles, athletic ability and leadership qualities one looks for in a great NFL QB. I think he's one of the future studs of the league.

Jeff Garcia- Fool's Gold- Garcia's better days are obviously behind him, but I give him props for his inspired play. He's in the ideal situation in Philly, he knows how to run Reid's west coast offense and he's got decent talent around him. I think if he went anywhere else to be a starter he'd flop. I can see him finishing out his career as McNabb's backup which isn't a bad gig at all.

Tony Romo- Goldmine- I'm kinda on the fence with Romo. I think he'll be a decent QB. His mobility is a plus, but there will be alot of ??s surrounding him after the season. Glenn is getting older, will TO and Parcells be back?

Jason Campbell- Fool's Gold- Campbell is a tough call. I really haven't seen enough of him to think he'll be a future star in the league. He will be one of the up-and-comers I will be watching next year. It will be interesting to see how he does going into the '07 season as the starter.

Steve McNair- Fool's Gold- The Ol' guy still has it, but for how long? I think he has next year to put up some decent numbers, but after that the Ravens will probably have to go in another direction. I wouldn't mind him as my QB2 next season.

Jon Kitna- Fool's Gold- Kitna plays his heart out, but the Lions are a mess. I don't envision Kitna a starter after next season.

Running Back

Ron Dayne- Fool's Gold- Granted he's making the most of his opportunity-finally- But I don't think he'll ever be somebody's RB1 for a full season, he'll probably be replaced next year.

Cedric Benson- Goldmine- Benson has youth on his side, but if Jones is still there it will obviously limit his carries. If Jones leaves Chi and he can stay healthy he can be a solid RB.

Ladell Betts- Goldmine- A solid player in a bad situation. I like Betts, but unless he goes or Portis goes, he'll be a backup.

Marion Barber III-???- The TDs are nice, but like Benson he'll be stuck splitting carries. Unless something drastic happens in Dallas he be a good bye week filler.

Jerious Norwood- ???- The kid's definitely got talent. But I think Dunn is a year or two away from retiring. I can see Norwoods carries increasing, but how much is a mystery to me right now.

Maurice Jones-Drew- Goldmine- I was high on MJD going into this year, and yet he ceases to amaze me. I think he can be the RB1 for the Jags for years to come.

Travis Henry- Fool's Gold- Glad to see him resurrect his career, but I think he just keeping the seat warm for LenDale White.

Wide Receiver

Bernard Barrian- Goldmine- Berrian is a player on the rise. If Mark Bradley can stay healthy and Muhammad sticks around for a couple more years Grossman will have a nice trio of WRs to throw to.

Marques Colston- Goldmine- Happy to have him on my dynasty team for years to come. With Horn up there in years and Henderson as the deep threat, I see Colston being Brees' go-to guy for the future.

Mike Furrey- ???- Tough call. The WR2 in Martz's offense is a plus. The Lions haven't given up on Mike Williams yet.

DJ Hackett- Fool's gold- If DJax, Engram and Burleson stick around it will be hard for him to stay in the starting lineup. Although with DJax's and Engram's injury history and Burleson being somewhat of a disappointment you never know, if Hackett works hard he might be in Seattle's future plans.

Mark Clayton- Goldmine- I think Clayton has shown he can be the WR1, and will be for years to come. Mason is a good player but he's on the downside of his career.

Ronald Curry- Goldmine- Curry is an extremely talented player, but he plays on a terribly bad offense. As bad as the Raiders are on offense, he still is the WR1 and if the Raiders can turn it around next year and at least be in the middle of the pack he can put up some decent numbers if Moss and Porter are shown the door.

Arnaz Battle- Goldmine- I like Battle, I think he will never be a superstar but he is one of those unheralded guys who does a lot of things well, but nothing great.

Wes Welker- Fool's gold- I think next year Hagan will start to cut into his playing time. Being good on special teams will keep him on the roster.

Reche Caldwell- Fool's gold- I've just never been impressed with him. Plus Brady spreads the ball around so much, its hard to imagine he'll establish some kind of consistency where I'd be comfortable starting him on one of my rosters.

Jerricho Cotchery- Gold mine- Talk about being under the radar this year. With Coles and Cotchery at WR the Jets have a nice tandem for the future.

Tight End

Kellen Winslow- Gold mine- Future stud at the position.

Ben Troupe-Fool's gold- With Scaife playing well and Kinney coming back from injury next year, he will have alot to prove.

 

[fsufan]

Quarterback

Running Back

Travis Henry- Fool's Gold- Glad to see him resurrect his career, but I think he just keeping the seat warm for LenDale White.

I would like to know why you think this? Henry is 28 so he should have a few more solid years left in him. He only had a total of 182 carries in 2004 and 2005. He is durable. He was shafted in Buffalo for a more popular player in McGahee. I think Henry will be a great value pick in redraft leagues in 2007.

And what has White shown?

240 yards

O TDs

 

[BoltBacker]

FOOL'S GOLDQBYoung - Invaluable NFL QB... not convinced he's a fantasy stud or ever will be. Great cantidate for "drafted too early every season due to name recognition instead of fantasy production".

I haven't read the whole thread, but there have been a few people mirroring this opinion, to which I ask . . . WHY?He's been the #3 QB the past 6 weeks and should only continue to improve. And I doubt many people will draft him ahead of Peyton (as was suggested).I never figured out what people have against running QBs. People STILL loathe Vick, even with him ranking as the #4 QB this year.

That's pretty much why right there.He's a lock for ROY and will hyped all summer long.People throw around "He's been the #3 QB the last...." but do they really stop to think.... "yeah, but McNabb was hurt and he's in a completely different class than VY... oh, and Bulger was playing with cracked ribs and without Pace to protect him..." etc, etc. I honestly don't see him falling past the top 5 QB's because "He was ROY and that was only as a rookie so he can only get better!" Is that even true? I'm a big Jeff Fisher believer and I really believe he's got that team headed the right direction. Will they need those late game heroics every single game that have really goosed VY's stats this year? I don't think it's a lock VY has better points/game stats than he did this year and in my main league VY is 13th in points/game.Another big factor in my statement is the quality of QB's at this time. Manning, McNabb, Brees, Bulger, Palmer, Brady and Vick are all clearly a cut above imo yet I'd be willing to bet he gets drafted before at least two of those guys. Add to that I don't think he'll statistically seperate himself much from the likes of Rivers, Cutler(who I'm very high on), Hasselbeck, Kitna(assuming Martz stays), and Eli(who'll be going dirt cheap next year but I'd be willing to bet has about the same production as VY). There are even guys after that waiting in the wings that have "?"s but imo could very well outscore a VY: Leinart, Grossman, Leftwich, Cambell, Delhomme, Favre, Pennington, Losman, Romo, Smith, Roeth.BTW I'm not anti-running QB's(in fact I had Vick in almost every league I played in this year and thought he was a GREAT value going into this season.... and will be going into next) it's more a case you have to weigh the hype vs the production. When Vick entered the league he was not good FF value imo because there were too many people stating "He'll REDEFINE the QB position" and were going to be dissappointed with anything less than QB#1 stats. And then again in '03 they looked at his 331 points in '02 and were full on with the ".. and that was just his first full season as a starter, HE CAN ONLY GET BETTER!". Well, he didn't. He's still very good. He's just not redefining anything.... certainly not the QB position. If you can get a Vick in the QB#6-10 range then he's a very good value. If you can get VY in the QB#9-13 he's a good value. Just as with Vick at the start of his career I really don't think it will be possible to get VY anywhere near #9 next season just based on post-season hype alone.I like VY. Reminds me a lot of McNair and he's always been a favorite. #3 QB in the last six weeks? Great, more power to him. In my league Jeff Garcia is QB#4 in weekly average over the past six weeks. Let's try to keep the sample size in perspective.

 

[Bruno2]

Quarterback

Running Back

Travis Henry- Fool's Gold- Glad to see him resurrect his career, but I think he just keeping the seat warm for LenDale White.

I would like to know why you think this? Henry is 28 so he should have a few more solid years left in him. He only had a total of 182 carries in 2004 and 2005. He is durable. He was shafted in Buffalo for a more popular player in McGahee. I think Henry will be a great value pick in redraft leagues in 2007.

And what has White shown?

240 yards

O TDs

You make a valid point. I won't discount the chance that Henry could follow up this season with another good one in '07 and keep White on the bench. But I think that if the Titans spent a 2nd round pick on White, they would like to see a return on that investment sooner than later.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Kitna was awful this year. He went like two months in a row without even throwing 2 TDs in a game.

 

[Lord of Football]

Kitna was awful this year. He went like two months in a row without even throwing 2 TDs in a game.

He finished 6th in WCOFF scoring. Hardly awful especially considering where he was drafted.

 

[David Yudkin]

FOOL'S GOLDQBYoung - Invaluable NFL QB... not convinced he's a fantasy stud or ever will be. Great cantidate for "drafted too early every season due to name recognition instead of fantasy production".

I haven't read the whole thread, but there have been a few people mirroring this opinion, to which I ask . . . WHY?He's been the #3 QB the past 6 weeks and should only continue to improve. And I doubt many people will draft him ahead of Peyton (as was suggested).I never figured out what people have against running QBs. People STILL loathe Vick, even with him ranking as the #4 QB this year.

That's pretty much why right there.He's a lock for ROY and will hyped all summer long.People throw around "He's been the #3 QB the last...." but do they really stop to think.... "yeah, but McNabb was hurt and he's in a completely different class than VY... oh, and Bulger was playing with cracked ribs and without Pace to protect him..." etc, etc. I honestly don't see him falling past the top 5 QB's because "He was ROY and that was only as a rookie so he can only get better!" Is that even true? I'm a big Jeff Fisher believer and I really believe he's got that team headed the right direction. Will they need those late game heroics every single game that have really goosed VY's stats this year? I don't think it's a lock VY has better points/game stats than he did this year and in my main league VY is 13th in points/game.Another big factor in my statement is the quality of QB's at this time. Manning, McNabb, Brees, Bulger, Palmer, Brady and Vick are all clearly a cut above imo yet I'd be willing to bet he gets drafted before at least two of those guys. Add to that I don't think he'll statistically seperate himself much from the likes of Rivers, Cutler(who I'm very high on), Hasselbeck, Kitna(assuming Martz stays), and Eli(who'll be going dirt cheap next year but I'd be willing to bet has about the same production as VY). There are even guys after that waiting in the wings that have "?"s but imo could very well outscore a VY: Leinart, Grossman, Leftwich, Cambell, Delhomme, Favre, Pennington, Losman, Romo, Smith, Roeth.BTW I'm not anti-running QB's(in fact I had Vick in almost every league I played in this year and thought he was a GREAT value going into this season.... and will be going into next) it's more a case you have to weigh the hype vs the production. When Vick entered the league he was not good FF value imo because there were too many people stating "He'll REDEFINE the QB position" and were going to be dissappointed with anything less than QB#1 stats. And then again in '03 they looked at his 331 points in '02 and were full on with the ".. and that was just his first full season as a starter, HE CAN ONLY GET BETTER!". Well, he didn't. He's still very good. He's just not redefining anything.... certainly not the QB position. If you can get a Vick in the QB#6-10 range then he's a very good value. If you can get VY in the QB#9-13 he's a good value. Just as with Vick at the start of his career I really don't think it will be possible to get VY anywhere near #9 next season just based on post-season hype alone.I like VY. Reminds me a lot of McNair and he's always been a favorite. #3 QB in the last six weeks? Great, more power to him. In my league Jeff Garcia is QB#4 in weekly average over the past six weeks. Let's try to keep the sample size in perspective.

I happen to think that VY will fall BECAUSE of the reasons you listed. In the leagues I was in this season, Vick fell into the QB12-14 range. He'll go earlier next year, but the same people that don't want Vick won't want Young either as he is less proven and plays on a team with the perception of having a sub-par offense.Young may go earlier in casual leagues than shark leagues, as big names and hyped players tend to go too early.

 

[BoltBacker]

I happen to think that VY will fall BECAUSE of the reasons you listed. In the leagues I was in this season, Vick fell into the QB12-14 range. He'll go earlier next year, but the same people that don't want Vick won't want Young either as he is less proven and plays on a team with the perception of having a sub-par offense.Young may go earlier in casual leagues than shark leagues, as big names and hyped players tend to go too early.

You don't have to be in a casual league to see people get swept up by hype. Like I said before, in '03 plenty of sharks thought Vicks '02 performence was only the start of something much bigger.Maybe I'm reading too much in your #3QB remark. If the season ended today where would you rank VY? What range would you draft him? How many of the players I mentioned being a tier above him would you disagree with and which ones?

 

[David Yudkin]

I happen to think that VY will fall BECAUSE of the reasons you listed. In the leagues I was in this season, Vick fell into the QB12-14 range. He'll go earlier next year, but the same people that don't want Vick won't want Young either as he is less proven and plays on a team with the perception of having a sub-par offense.Young may go earlier in casual leagues than shark leagues, as big names and hyped players tend to go too early.

You don't have to be in a casual league to see people get swept up by hype. Like I said before, in '03 plenty of sharks thought Vicks '02 performence was only the start of something much bigger.Maybe I'm reading too much in your #3QB remark. If the season ended today where would you rank VY? What range would you draft him? How many of the players I mentioned being a tier above him would you disagree with and which ones?

For starters, I am a believer of the wait-as-long-as-possible approach to drafting QBs. I regularly wait until all other teams have a starter (and some a backup) before I generally would take a QB, and I might take two or three in a row if the guys I think are valuable fall and are still on the board. To that end, I think that there are a many owners (at least that I play with) that are infatuated with Young. He was on the waiver wire for most of the year in my leagues, and when he finally was picked up no one started him. While all leagues are different, that at least tells me that he has not garnered a lot of love to date. However, I do play with folks that generally love the gunslingers who shy away from QB that run a lot, so that may not be the case universally.As for who I think will get drafted before Young, I suspect (in no apparent order)ManningPalmerBulgerMcNabbBreesBradyVickHasselbeckThen there is a grouping of guys that may or may not be taken ahead of Young including:RiversRomoLeinartKitnaEManningGrossmanRoethlisbergerCulpepperCutlerI'm guessing that in my leagues Toung will be one of the last QB1s selected or an early QB2 (in a 12-team league).As I said, I generally pick three guys from the second list and ALWAYS hit on somebody. This year my three targets were Vick, Rivers, and Kitna. I wound up with Vick on almost every team and paired him with and one (or both) of the other two. I suspect that Young will be one of my guys in this area that will far outproduce his draft slot.Remember, relative draft position is what wins leagues, so I agree that as a Top 5 QB pick Young will likely not be worth it. But if he falls he has a great chance to put up medicore passing totals and could still produce as a decent QB1.Obviously there are no guarantees that he will do as well or better, but I think that he will do at least as well (or in the neighborhood) as he has this season. For draft purposes, by the time I drafted him I should already have a stable of RBs and WRs that make taking him a very limited risk.

 

[MLBrandow]

Quarterback

Joey Harrington - not even starting

Vince Young - gold mine now... will only be better in '07 (thanks for the 30+ in my super bowl)

Jeff Garcia - won't be starting next year

Tony Romo - staying away from all cowboys as a rule while parcells + TO

Jason Campbell - I like the Redskins to win the NFC next year

Steve McNair - he's not worth much now, will be less next year.

Jon Kitna - rookie will replace him early

Running Back

Ron Dayne - fools gold

Cedric Benson - he'll be a stud when they let him play, but my patience is running out for the Bears

Ladell Betts - scat back in '07. No RB forces a RBBC with Portis

Marion Barber III - RB2 value, won't put JJ on the bench

Jerious Norwood - Dunn should retire IMO.

Maurice Jones-Drew - top 3 RB behind LT and LJ, may break the rushing record.

Travis Henry - staying away from Titans RBs not named LenDale White

Wide Receiver

Bernard Barrian - money

Marques Colston - money

Mike Furrey - no value because he'll be a popular sleeper with a rookie QB

DJ Hackett - no value

Mark Clayton - no value because he'll be overhyped and McNair will decline even more.

Ronald Curry - no value

Arnaz Battle - little valu e

Wes Welker - no value

Reche Caldwell - no value

Jerricho Cotchery - solid WR2

Tight End

Kellen Winslow - top 5 TE

Ben Troupe - overvalued.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Running Back

Maurice Jones-Drew - top 3 RB behind LT and LJ, may break the rushing record.

Your man-crush was to be expected.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

...There, I have rated 26 players. Feel free to hack away.

x260bm,Thanks for the informative discussion points. That's what I was hoping for.Anyone have other names to add?

Jeff, what are your thoughts on Ron Curry?

He's a solid sleeper, not much more. I'd fear having to start him and depend on his performance.Oakland's a mess and I don't hold much home for next year at this point. Free agency, coaching changes, and/or the draft could radically impact nearly every Raider on offense.

 

[Biabreakable]

Dayne = BGP aka FG

 

[Schrute]

Travis Henry - staying away from Titans RBs not named LenDale White

Why? White hasn't done anything this year, and Henry has been pretty good. What makes you think they won't just go into next year with the same division of carries?