Football or Baseball? (1 Viewer)

[Don Quixote]

But how bad is this actually for QBs? I suppose worse for a QB who is likely to run a lot, but it doesn't really have to be (e.g., Russell Wilson).

The only QBs I can think of with serious health issues that might be related to playing football are McMahon and presumably Kramer. Am I missing some?

Looking at the Wiki page on CTE, Earl Morrall had Stage 4 CTE.  Ken Stabler had Stage 3.

ETA: Link on Tyler Hilinski, the WSU QB who committed suicide (he was 21, with the brain of a 65 year old).

 

[IrishTwinkie]

Looking at the Wiki page on CTE, Earl Morrall had Stage 4 CTE.  Ken Stabler had Stage 3.

ETA: Link on Tyler Hilinski, the WSU QB who committed suicide (he was 21, with the brain of a 65 year old).

Another example: Not CTE, but Jim Plunkett can't walk. I saw a show on him a few years ago. Needed help to get out of bed. I.E. had to wake the wife in the middle of night for a trip to john. Not a great way to live. I think folks are underestimating the physical toll QBs pay.

ETA: Found a link to an article about it. I am remembering a video, but this serves as well:

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2017/8/5/16100996/jim-plunkett-interview-pain-cte-head-injuries

After clicking on a few of the links, I am thinking he didn't miss the CTE issues. That wasn't in the video I remember, tho.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

playing qb now is not the same as 20 years ago.  let alone 5 years ago.

 

[Tau837]

playing qb now is not the same as 20 years ago.  let alone 5 years ago.

Exactly. Surprised at some of the examples being cited here. Again, IMO NFL QB drafted in first round is a nobrainer over MLB CF drafted in top 10.

 

[Don Quixote]

Exactly. Surprised at some of the examples being cited here. Again, IMO NFL QB drafted in first round is a nobrainer over MLB CF drafted in top 10.

Was the Tyler Hilinski one that I cited not recent enough?  He already had Stage 1 CTE with the brain of a 65 year old.

 

[Lehigh98]

Better money overall in the MLB.   

Better players union in the MLB.

Longer playing time in the MLB.

The body doesn't take the abuse in MLB.

I know that Murray loves football but I can't think of one reason to pick NFL over MLB.  

Baseball is boring?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

One factor that should be taken into account here is that football is a dumb sport that is liked only by dumb people.

 

[General Malaise]

One factor that should be taken into account here is that football is a dumb sport that is liked only by dumb people.

As opposed to Mensa members like Lenny Dykstra, John Rocker or Yusiel Puig?

 

[Good Posting Judge]

As opposed to Mensa members like Lenny Dykstra, John Rocker or Yusiel Puig?

Well I was just talking about the people who followed a sport.

But 99% of all professional athletes are lowlifes.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Exactly. Surprised at some of the examples being cited here. Again, IMO NFL QB drafted in first round is a nobrainer over MLB CF drafted in top 10.

I went back and looked at previous MLB drafts from like 2007-2012 because I thought you were underselling the odds of an MLB position player making it to the big leagues and cashing in. And I was kinda right- they stand a very good chance of at least making the bigs, maybe a 50/50 of sticking at that level long enough to make 8 figures, and a 10-20% chance of making more money than any NFL player in history (2008 is a good example).

But then I went back and looked at the NFL QBs taken in the first round in that same time period, and it turned out you were right after all and I was totally underestimating that side of it.  Even the very worst of them cracks eight figures and gets more chances than they could possibly deserve, and just being passable like Flacco and Tannehill gets you nine figures. Still not sure it's worth it for the physical toll and risks, but at the very least it's not the easy call I first thought it was.

 

[Tau837]

Was the Tyler Hilinski one that I cited not recent enough?  He already had Stage 1 CTE with the brain of a 65 year old.

For me, one recent example is not super compelling...  

And IMO examples like Morrall, Plunkett, Stabler, McMahon, etc. are also not super compelling, since so much has changed since those guys played (the volume and intensity of the hits that QBs take; concussion/CTE awareness; improvements in medical treatment, training, and nutrition; etc.).

 

[Tau837]

I went back and looked at previous MLB drafts from like 2007-2012 because I thought you were underselling the odds of an MLB position player making it to the big leagues and cashing in. And I was kinda right- they stand a very good chance of at least making the bigs, maybe a 50/50 of sticking at that level long enough to make 8 figures, and a 10-20% chance of making more money than any NFL player in history (2008 is a good example).

But then I went back and looked at the NFL QBs taken in the first round in that same time period, and it turned out you were right after all and I was totally underestimating that side of it.  Even the very worst of them cracks eight figures and gets more chances than they could possibly deserve, and just being passable like Flacco and Tannehill gets you nine figures. Still not sure it's worth it for the physical toll and risks, but at the very least it's not the easy call I first thought it was.

On the bolded, I linked a SABR study that supported the figures I quoted, so I thought I backed that up pretty well...

That study showed that from 1996-2011:

• 158 college position players were drafted in the first round
  
• 156 of them were signed
  
• 122 of them played in the majors
  
• 95 of them played 3 or more years in the majors
  

95/156 = 61%. I characterized it as just over 50%, so I did underplay it a bit with my wording. But the rest was on point, i.e., 3 or more years doesn't even guarantee playing after having reached arbitration, which is typically not until after playing 3-4 seasons, much less playing after signing a free agent contract, which is typically not until after playing 6-7 seasons. So I would expect that 61% number to drop off as you add successive seasons, i.e., 4+ seasons, 5+ seasons, etc.

Of course, we know Murray was drafted 9th. That would seemingly push his odds higher, if we assume that is reflective of his talent level (i.e., if we assume he wasn't overdrafted like other multi-sport star players have been at times).

 

[TobiasFunke]

On the bolded, I linked a SABR study that supported the figures I quoted, so I thought I backed that up pretty well...

Thanks, just saw that. Lotta good arguments in that post.  Study is first round though- I assume Joe made it Top 10 MLB vs first round NFL QB for a reason.

 

[Tau837]

Thanks, just saw that. Lotta good arguments in that post.  Study is first round though- I assume Joe made it Top 10 MLB vs first round NFL QB for a reason.

Technically, Joe just said top prospect in both. I made the assumption that the question was about top 10 MLB pick vs. first round QB since that is what Murray's situation is.

I certainly would have used top 10 MLB pick data if I was aware of a handy source, but I doubt there is a significant difference between top 10 picks and first round picks.

 

[IrishTwinkie]

I am not sure how we are suppose to rate the effect of playing QB on their quality of life in old age when all the guys who qualify as being in their old age are discounted. 

In any event, the difference in the physical toll accrued by playing each sport clearly favors baseball, no matter what era the players played. 

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Better money overall in the MLB.   

Better players union in the MLB.

Longer playing time in the MLB.

The body doesn't take the abuse in MLB.

I know that Murray loves football but I can't think of one reason to pick NFL over MLB.  

Damn saved me some typing - this sums it up perfectly.  The only drawback to baseball is if you don't get a great signing bonus and have to work your way up through the minors it would suck.  But at the end of the day you are getting paid to play a kid's game.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Here is an article opining that Murray should go football.