Good stuff. I have a few comments. I need to always qualify that almost all of my dynasty takes are FFPC centric and it is a big caveat. For many reasons but among them is that we do our rookie drafts about a week and a half after the NFL draft.
Bloom: More than timing any market correctly, the most important task for offseason trading is taking stands on which players are at the foot of a mountain of value growth or the precipice of a canyon of value dropoff and acting before it becomes clearer to the hive mind that those players are about to have dramatic changes in value. Get them or get rid of them while you can.
Yeah I like to use the analogy of a quarterback throwing the ball to a receiver. You don't throw it to where they were, you throw it to where they're going to be. We want to have an active vision of where the FF landscape is headed and to let that vision inform and shape our strategies and decisions. Don't come at me about curl routes in my analogy. JK.
Wood and Bloom both talk about getting vets while OTC due to skittish owners, but by the time of the rookie draft (in FFPC), slots are more locked down because teams have traded into them, or earned them and fell in love with them. Although I agree the price goes up and is highest OTC, they are also the hardest to move at that point. It isn’t just about the price, it is about the will to move those picks and I think you guys are wrong about the “skittish owner”. But at some point in perhaps the late 1st most years, the pendulum swings in that direction.
Strong agreement that the price is worst in offseason, but the opportunity is arguably higher, also due to the higher level of activity that has been mentioned. Add in FFPC cutdown constraints and there is a pressure to get deals done. So the price is highest, but the market is robust. If you wait, the price goes up even higher (along with FA clarity) as the draft approaches. And as rookie picks *are* exchanged, the new owners are more locked in.
Andy - A smart manager tries to accrue draft picks when other managers are least interested in them - this certainly echoes the consensus of the round table
What about when those owners are severely pressured to get under the roster limit in a short time frame like in FFPC? It’s not that moving a pick for a player would help them (it wouldn’t) but that there is an intense market to move pieces in general and draft picks are in demand in a big way. For a team trying to get under the limit it is imperative to convert players to picks, and it drives the league-wide action. Even the seller of a given pick might accrue an extra player in a deal if the price is right, and we all agree it would be a seller's market. But in order to deal with their own roster constraint, they might lower the price in order to get that attractive vet you guys are talking about. I think there are actually some dramatically large differences in these dynamics between FFPC and other dynasty leagues. Inseason is still the better time for future picks, but if a rebuilder is to get there, the early offseason (now) is better than the later offseason (starting now until the draft) and should be leveraged. If you wait until those picks are sold, they won’t be available anymore. Unless, to your guys point, you want to pay even more.
Andy again - Who are you unlikely to play ever? You are examining your roster from 1-16, 20, or however deep you go.
Yeah not enough owners examine their depth from the standpoint of whether they are actually getting use out of those players or not. Or if they would in the case of an injury. Sometimes depth looks good until you have to use it. Then you realize you’d rather have someone else. You’ve gotta be ahead of the curve on moving those kinds of players.
Will Grant - Your best bet, if you are looking to move up or down in the draft, is to wait until your actual draft is just about to start or still in the first round.
Yeah I think that is true and I actually love the kinds of deals I can make during the draft to make bumps happen, and to target “my guys” in the process. And it works both ways because you can really buy some great vet plays that way as well. But I think you have to try to identify who and where those skittish (or just ready to deal) owners are, and one way to do that is to probe around and try to make deals in this offseason period. BEFORE the draft.
Jordan McNamara Now is a great time to trade as activity level is spiking in leagues as startup drafts and rookie draft preparation begins in earnest. Generally, buying rookie picks only gets more expensive as the pick gets closer to the clock, so if you want to move up the board, it's better to do it now than wait until it's rookie draft day
Ok yes that is what I’m saying. Jordan gets me.
