Forte: Sell or Hold? (1 Viewer)

[switz]

Imagine what Forte could do behind a decent OL & a stable passing game. You would be talking about a MONSTER (not that he's doing anything but good now).

Maybe, I guess it depends on what you consider a bad OL. There are other RBs running behind worse OLs. I'm of the opinion Fortes OL wasn't that bad two years ago, when as a rookie, he only averaged 3.9 YPC. I don't think it's the OL.But his role is the passing game gives him value, especially in PPR leagues. I don't know about MONSTER value, but value nonetheless.

I believe this "average" or "bad" year (you implied one, i'm not sure which) he had in his rookie campaign he was...yes, he was a top 5 RB!! So it was really that "average" now was it, lol. 3.9 YPC is one metric, and not even a very reliable one when you're talking about Forte who is most likely the BEST RB in the league in terms of receiving. In my league he was the 3rd highest rated RB in fantasy football in 2008, his "average" year. He had 316 carries for 1238 yards and 8 rushing TDs. But he also had 63 receptions (pretty ridiculous for an RB) for 477 yards and 4 extra TDs. This is far from an "average" year as you attempted to mislead people into thinking.

Actually, all I implied is that he wasn't a MONSTER in '08.Top-5 is a FF measurement, not an NFL measurement. YPC is one of the best ways to measure an RBs effectiveness given a large enough sample. Forte really just isn't that good of a runner. In the NFL, runners who continually average sub 4.0 YPC typically get replaced. Or they go to another team and have success there, like Jones mentioned earlier. If they just get replaced, their FF value becomes null.

Forte is probably going to end up a third down back, where his receiving ability will be valuable, but his running won't be a liability.

 

[switz]

Serious question, from a dynasty perspective...

Forte had 316 carries his rookie season, 258 in his second, and is on pace for 205 this season (taken from NFL.com which has him at 90 carries in 7 games). He's carries have dropped about 50 per season.

On the other hand, his receptions have been around 60 per season, and project to be around 60 this season.

Does the reduction of carries affect your view of him moving forward, or do the receptions compensate enough to keep him highly ranked moving forward?

Right now, he's projecting to put up 804 yards rushing, 6 or 7 rushing TDs. And adding in about 693 receiving yards, with 6 or 7 more TDs.

That's still a 1500 yard, 13 TD runningback.

Does the trend down in carries bother anyone?

 

[3nOut]

Serious question, from a dynasty perspective...Forte had 316 carries his rookie season, 258 in his second, and is on pace for 205 this season (taken from NFL.com which has him at 90 carries in 7 games). He's carries have dropped about 50 per season.On the other hand, his receptions have been around 60 per season, and project to be around 60 this season.Does the reduction of carries affect your view of him moving forward, or do the receptions compensate enough to keep him highly ranked moving forward?Right now, he's projecting to put up 804 yards rushing, 6 or 7 rushing TDs. And adding in about 693 receiving yards, with 6 or 7 more TDs.That's still a 1500 yard, 13 TD runningback.Does the trend down in carries bother anyone?

Yes it does. As a Bears fan and a Forte owner (not dynasty), its frustrating seeing him play this year. Althoough he hasn't lit up the boards rushing, he isn't running as bad as it appears. I believe the Bears averaged about 4 yds/carry yesterday which isn't bad. The problenm is that thety threw about 40 times, and not many of them to the Rbs (mostly downfield and to the CBs). If Forte would at least get more swing passes his numbers might improve. Martz has got to change his play calling or Forte's FF value will soon be next to nothing. Dynasty-wise, I'd keep him this year and see what happens with the playcalling. Its not like you are going to get value back for Forte. Keep an eye on Martz going into next year and hope someone who understands the value of running ball takes over the playcalling next year.

 

[5Rings]

sold in dynasty for high 2011 draft pick.

 

[3nOut]

Almost a month later, same question. What are you doing with Forte. I still think he's talented and I think Martz is being tiold to run the ball more, however, the O Line is still in shambles and word is that Chester Taylor will start getting more carries.

I am really surprised that FBGs still have Forte ranked as RB19 moving forward. As a Bears fan I hope they are right, but as a Forte owner, I don't see this. Why such a high ranking? Other RBs ranked much lower than Forte may put up similar numbers the rest of the way; Jacobs, Mathews, Thomas, Bush, Addai, D Williams, etc.

I drafted him as my RB2 but now see him as a solid RB3 which should place him somewhere in the 25-30 range. Wher do you rank him? For comparison purposes, what other RBs do you think will post similar numbers?

 

[sandlotshrink]

I can't give the guy away in a 10 team league. Given the situation in Chicago plus Taylor getting any goal line carries all but makes Forte an after thought. I started him vs. Buffalo and we know how that turned out. If the dude can't get it done vs. Buffalo, then there's little hope. Sure, there's a chance he may throw up one more "monster" game, but not worth all the clunkers in between. The blame may not fall squarely on his shoulders (oline, Martz, Cutler) but it's his points I need to win in fantasy. FBG's has him ranked relatively high this week and cannot figure out their logic.

 

[3nOut]

I can't give the guy away in a 10 team league. Given the situation in Chicago plus Taylor getting any goal line carries all but makes Forte an after thought. I started him vs. Buffalo and we know how that turned out. If the dude can't get it done vs. Buffalo, then there's little hope. Sure, there's a chance he may throw up one more "monster" game, but not worth all the clunkers in between. The blame may not fall squarely on his shoulders (oline, Martz, Cutler) but it's his points I need to win in fantasy. FBG's has him ranked relatively high this week and cannot figure out their logic.

In a 10 team league thats understandable. But where would you rank him?

 

[3nOut]

Bump. Anyone have a guess why FBGs have Forte ranked so high in their top 250?

 

[flapgreen]

One of the worst starting rb's in the league.

 

[switz]

Year Age G FantPos FantPt VBD PosRank OvRank

2008 23 16 RB 244 95 4 8

2009 24 16 RB 164 14 18 63

2010 25 3 RB 49 22 8 14

What do the numbers look like after week 4? Because his ranking has been dropping like a rock after week 1.

Update?

Update?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Year Age G FantPos FantPt VBD PosRank OvRank

2008 23 16 RB 244 95 4 8

2009 24 16 RB 164 14 18 63

2010 25 3 RB 49 22 8 14

What do the numbers look like after week 4? Because his ranking has been dropping like a rock after week 1.

Update?

Update?

Matt Forte177 for 748 4.2 5 36 rec for 389 3

Already 1,000 total yards and a 4.2 average Switz.

Felix Jones

133 for 531 4.0 0 40 rec for 354 1

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Forte: 203 for 865 4.26

Jones: 158 for 642 4.06

It must be b/c of Forte's superior OL right Switz?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Don't worry I got this bump...again.

Forte: 222 for 978 4.4 6td, 43rec for 487 3td.

Jones:174 for 719 4.1 1td, 47rec for 454 1td.

 

[Ghost Rider]

The numbers don't lie. Neither guy has a good offensive line blocking for him, but Forte is outproducing the great Felix Jones.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Is everyone done saying Forte doesn't have it now?

His first three seasons in the NFL have included:

3 seasons over 900 yards

3 seasons over 50 receptions

4.5 YPC this season

Despite the QB play, the OL, or his injuries.

More total yards/receptions than Jamaal Charles.

More receptions than Chris Johnson.

About the same total yardage as MJD.

 

[flapgreen]

Is everyone done saying Forte doesn't have it now?His first three seasons in the NFL have included:3 seasons over 900 yards3 seasons over 50 receptions4.5 YPC this seasonDespite the QB play, the OL, or his injuries.More total yards/receptions than Jamaal Charles.More receptions than Chris Johnson.About the same total yardage as MJD.

Switz>hi