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Foxconn Considering $7BN Factory in US (1 Viewer)

I spoke with the people at foxconn, wonderful people.  great people.  I know them well.  wonderful foxconn people.  foxconn people are stars.  a little something called NAFTA, you have heard of it, NAAAAFFTAA.  horrible.  a disaster.

 
I know little about this niche of manufacturing but the numbers and trends do point to the need for anti technology and anti robot policies to really bolster American manufacturing.
I'm guessing you are kidding here, but this is like the horse carriage industry lobbying for anti-combustion engine policies in the 1900s.  This line of thought just invites early adopters of robotic manufacturing to wipe out the US on production/cost.  
Unfortunately, the POTUS was just elected primarily by people who lost their jobs from the horse carriage industry in your example

 
Trump today: building factories will be expedited, we will keep the people and environment safe, regulations will be cut by 75% or more, massive tax cuts for business coming, he has never seen anything like the enthusiasm for cutting regulations, people will no longer have a reason to close factories, if a factory moves to another country then major border tax will be enforced on the company

 
Trump today: building factories will be expedited, we will keep the people and environment safe, regulations will be cut by 75% or more, massive tax cuts for business coming, he has never seen anything like the enthusiasm for cutting regulations, people will no longer have a reason to close factories, if a factory moves to another country then major border tax will be enforced on the company
Indiana, Ohio, Indiana, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Ohio

 
You don't want those States to grow jobs or what? 
Since he is so obsessed with support, crowds, etc., will he be focused only on the states that helped him win the election?  I understand he needs to speak to them, but there are 45 or 46 other states. 

 
Since he is so obsessed with support, crowds, etc., will he be focused only on the states that helped him win the election?  I understand he needs to speak to them, but there are 45 or 46 other states. 
The other states aren't interested in adding manufacturing jobs or taking advantage of lower taxes/regulations? Sure he mentioned 4 or 5 States by name, but he didn't say it only applied to those States.

 
I think the reality of today's world is this.  

  • Cheap plants built using lots of labor for final product, use Asia
  • Expensive plants built using lots of automation, and low labor, use USA or Mexico
Some exceptions to this are places like Boeing.  They build relatively expensive plants and have high labor as well, but that happens when you build really expensive items and maybe make like 300 of them all year long.

It sounds like this is a panel plant, those operations already have very low headcount needs.  This sounds like a CEO trying to get handouts from local and state governments to me.  Similar to Boeing when they got about half their plant paid for by South Carolina and it turned out to be a pretty bad deal for the taxpayer there as not even half the jobs promised were delivered, and now they are putting automation in to reduce even further the headcount.

You have to be careful with these things, they are like public funded stadiums.  Do they really represent a good deal for the taxpayer, or do they represent a good deal for the CEO/Owner.  

 
Obviously very early in the markets, but the dollar is down and yen is rising. Asian stock news says that their investors are concerned about the protectionist policies and that investors are seeking safer currencies. Economics is super complicated and there is a lot to watch to see how this works out. It's a huge shift. 
:thumbup:

That would be fantastic.  We have been on them to stop artificially deflating their currency for years.

 
Looks like announcement coming today for Foxconn, the site that has been heavily discussed is about a mile from my house.  Not sure of the concessions the local, state, and federal government will give Foxconn, but I read an estimate of 2-3 billion dollars over many years.  I wonder if there is any regret looking back on the high speed rail that Wisconsin pulled out of. 

 
I don't see any possible way they are going to be able to hire all those people. The location just plain sucks. 

With the new Amazon center and Uline, the Racine/Kenosha area is tapped out of that type of labor.  The people that want to work, are already working. 

It's simply too far from the major metro Milwaukee/Waukesha area to draw that type of labor with reliable transportation. 

 
I don't see any possible way they are going to be able to hire all those people. The location just plain sucks. 

With the new Amazon center and Uline, the Racine/Kenosha area is tapped out of that type of labor.  The people that want to work, are already working. 

It's simply too far from the major metro Milwaukee/Waukesha area to draw that type of labor with reliable transportation. 
Agreed, I guess the thought is people will move here or reasonably close, like your neck of the woods for example, for the jobs that will be brought.  Of the 10,000 employees I am curious what the percentage will make up white collar vs. blue collar work force.  The labor market here is tapped out, in two years Kenosha will also have the Haribo facility which will employ another 400 people.  There will have to be an exodus of people moving to the area which may drive up housing prices, which could be a good thing in my case.

 
Agreed, I guess the thought is people will move here or reasonably close, like your neck of the woods for example, for the jobs that will be brought.  Of the 10,000 employees I am curious what the percentage will make up white collar vs. blue collar work force.  The labor market here is tapped out, in two years Kenosha will also have the Haribo facility which will employ another 400 people.  There will have to be an exodus of people moving to the area which may drive up housing prices, which could be a good thing in my case.
I don't see a flood of people moving to WI.  Taxes here are terrible, and if these jobs are 80% manufacturing, they are not paying well enough to attract people to relocate to the area. 

Racine/Kenosha are tapped out, which leaves it to southern Milwaukee and SW Waukesha area.  Housing in the Oak Creek, Franklin, Muskego, Wind Lake area is just too expensive.  Similar to the Caledonia area of Racine that is experiencing nice growth. 

Which leaves the city of Racine, which you'd be crazy to move into at the moment. 

 
Agreed, I guess the thought is people will move here or reasonably close, like your neck of the woods for example, for the jobs that will be brought.  Of the 10,000 employees I am curious what the percentage will make up white collar vs. blue collar work force.  The labor market here is tapped out, in two years Kenosha will also have the Haribo facility which will employ another 400 people.  There will have to be an exodus of people moving to the area which may drive up housing prices, which could be a good thing in my case.
Too many jobs now!  Better cancel that wall.

 
RMB is overvalued but is being propped up right now by Chinese capital controls.  Trump's policies are very pro-strong dollar
USX off more than 10% since inauguration, and has been in something of a freefall erasing about half of Obama's gains.  I hate to think what we'd look like if Trump was weak dollar.    

 
I don't see a flood of people moving to WI.  Taxes here are terrible, and if these jobs are 80% manufacturing, they are not paying well enough to attract people to relocate to the area. 

Racine/Kenosha are tapped out, which leaves it to southern Milwaukee and SW Waukesha area.  Housing in the Oak Creek, Franklin, Muskego, Wind Lake area is just too expensive.  Similar to the Caledonia area of Racine that is experiencing nice growth. 

Which leaves the city of Racine, which you'd be crazy to move into at the moment. 
I haven't read much about it, but assume the Amtrak stop in Sturdevant might help. With a bit of infrastructure investment (which Walker has certainly agreed to pay for), there could be a good connection from Milwaukee and the northern Chicago suburbs.

 
I wonder what else might be looking to move in here if the transportation budget was never cut to leave the highway corridor incomplete. Its great the company is coming here because it is a net positive. Imagine what a casino in that area would have done? The 3,000 jobs that will be here will hopefully be livable wage jobs too. I think the people of Wisconsin should all get a free iPhone since they're coming here.

 
culdeus said:
USX off more than 10% since inauguration, and has been in something of a freefall erasing about half of Obama's gains.  I hate to think what we'd look like if Trump was weak dollar.    
USX?  Or are you talking about DXY?

 
Dxy is for all intents the same thing. A currency index vs the dollar. 
Thought so.  So my response is:  Buy the sizzle, sell the steak
The less sarcastic response is:  The perceptions about the US economy has changed.  The market priced in a lot of inflationary policies that would raise interest rates (and, thus, the dollar).  Inflation and long term bond yields have both stagnated instead.

 
The less sarcastic response is:  The perceptions about the US economy has changed.  The market priced in a lot of inflationary policies that would raise interest rates (and, thus, the dollar).  Inflation and long term bond yields have both stagnated instead.
So why would foxconn build a plant here then?  It costs about as much as a stuffed crust pizza to get a container of flat screens across the ocean. 

 
CletiusMaximus said:
I haven't read much about it, but assume the Amtrak stop in Sturdevant might help. With a bit of infrastructure investment (which Walker has certainly agreed to pay for), there could be a good connection from Milwaukee and the northern Chicago suburbs.
Living in Oak Creek with an office just blocks from Union Station, I've taken the train many times. At $54 round trip, I don't see it being an everyday option for these types of jobs. 

 
So why would foxconn build a plant here then?  It costs about as much as a stuffed crust pizza to get a container of flat screens across the ocean. 
You responded to a post of mine about the relative monetary policies.

In this particular case, I would expect getting paid $3B by WI to develop Sharp TVs for sale in the US market had something to do with this.

 
So why would foxconn build a plant here then?  It costs about as much as a stuffed crust pizza to get a container of flat screens across the ocean. 
Part of the answer is access to lots and lots of fresh water.....

http://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2017/07/25/foxconns-needs-water-highlight-economic-advantage-wisconsin/508229001/

"It has abundant access to water, an increasingly scarce commodity that analysts say is used in prodigious amounts in making the flat-panel displays that the new plant would likely produce.

Racine County and Kenosha County are nestled up against the Lake Michigan shoreline and boast a nearly inexhaustible supply of fresh water, at a time when parts of California, Arizona and Nevada as well as China, India, Singapore and Brazil have been forced to resort to water-use restrictions."

 
Part of the answer is access to lots and lots of fresh water.....

http://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2017/07/25/foxconns-needs-water-highlight-economic-advantage-wisconsin/508229001/

"It has abundant access to water, an increasingly scarce commodity that analysts say is used in prodigious amounts in making the flat-panel displays that the new plant would likely produce.

Racine County and Kenosha County are nestled up against the Lake Michigan shoreline and boast a nearly inexhaustible supply of fresh water, at a time when parts of California, Arizona and Nevada as well as China, India, Singapore and Brazil have been forced to resort to water-use restrictions."
So thanks Trump?

 
Part of the answer is access to lots and lots of fresh water.....

http://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2017/07/25/foxconns-needs-water-highlight-economic-advantage-wisconsin/508229001/

"It has abundant access to water, an increasingly scarce commodity that analysts say is used in prodigious amounts in making the flat-panel displays that the new plant would likely produce.

Racine County and Kenosha County are nestled up against the Lake Michigan shoreline and boast a nearly inexhaustible supply of fresh water, at a time when parts of California, Arizona and Nevada as well as China, India, Singapore and Brazil have been forced to resort to water-use restrictions."
Is the water still fresh after use or is it full of now EPA approved carcinogens etc?

 
Who wants to bet that this thing never happens? Foxconn is not going to build anything here. Just lip service. 

 
Who wants to bet that this thing never happens? Foxconn is not going to build anything here. Just lip service. 
:shrug:

Rumor is that they are looking at naming rights for the new arena. And they are looking to build or be a major tenant in a new building in downtown Milwaukee to move their corporate headquarters to (I would imagine their U.S. headquarters and not their world HQ)

 
25 years if all the new jobs are filled by peoplefrom WI. If 10% come from Illinois it increase by 2 years. If more than that it could be even greater. More and more this looks like a bad deal.

 
http://host.madison.com/wsj/business/foxconn-wants-to-cultivate-ties-with-wisconsin-ginseng-growers/article_a5d151c2-f5b4-5b95-ac7a-debbb3959324.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Foxconn wants to cultivate ties with Wisconsin ginseng growers

Robert Kaldunski, president of the Ginseng Board, said he was “very much surprised” to hear that Foxconn chairman Terry Gou and Leonard Wu, CEO of Foxconn Technology Group, wanted to meet with him.

“I thought electronics, televisions, phone ... I was happily surprised. We’re excited about things we could work together on,” Kaldunski said.

“Terry Gou is passionate about Wisconsin ginseng,” Kaldunski said. He said Gou told him both he and his mother take Wisconsin ginseng regularly.

“American ginseng is the treasure of Wisconsin,” Wu said. “It is a great opportunity for Foxconn to add our promotional and, hopefully, technological expertise to help Wisconsin American ginseng return to glory.”

Wisconsin has about 180 ginseng growers, mainly in central Wisconsin in the Wausau area. In the 2016 fiscal year, the U.S. exported 586,430 pounds of cultivated ginseng valued at $20 million, and 98 percent of the exports came from Wisconsin.

 
The 25 year estimate is a best case scenario, based on what is really a "back of the napkin" level analysis, and involves a dozen or more interrelated assumptions that are very hard to predict.  That's not to say its necessarily a good or bad deal in the longterm, only that this headline that is making the rounds is highly speculative and likely errs on the side of understating the downside of the deal.  The fact that Fitz is urging caution and even complaining about the Sept. 30 deadline is interesting, to say the least.

 
So this week it was announced the property Foxconn will move into, which will be 1.5 miles from my house, but the property they plan to store all the construction equipment will be .5 miles from my house.  A lot of hand wringing going on with my neighbors and myself and wife  We are not sure sure how this impacts our property value, will it go up, with a possible fully loaded employee base of 13,000 people they would have to live somewhere.  But will it go down based on the proximity of the facility.  I can say we are going to have some farmers come into a lot of money, the current price offered is $50k per acre, a farmer who owns 50 acres is getting $2.5M.  I hope for the best for those who own houses on the land being developed in that they get fair pricing for their houses and property only to see it get knocked down in the construction.

Next week is a session to discuss the plans, which I am interested to see what they are, for example the Hiawatha railway line runs right through this land, will a new stop be setup for people who travel from Illinois or Milwaukee can easily get to work.  I have to believe that Wisconsin would not be in favor of people coming in from Illinois seeing as that extends the amount of time to recover the $3 billion giveaway.

 

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