Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller & Marshawn Lynch, RBs, Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

[Carolina Hustler]

Is BUF really going to keep Lynch on the roster with CJ and Fred? Why not trade him for a draft pick?

one of the great mysteries to me also. My take is Fred proves he is as old as his age and fails finally this year or before next and CJ becomes the scat back that he probably is; leaving Lynch in control by 2011. There seems no other way to explain the GM and management on this one and they get to do some kind of weird discipline lesson to lay on Lynch to boot.

So just to be clear, you think the Bills drafted CJ Spiller at #9 overall because they plan to use him as a scat back. Correct?

Some time high draft picks don't work out, and other times, they work out but just not at the level fantasy owners would like them too...High draft pick doesn't necessarily equate to fantasy points. There are several examples, I'm not sure I need to point them out but I will if you'd like.

Sure, of course high draft picks don't always work out. But for Spiller to "just be a scat back" by 2011, it basically means either the coaching staff (and management) give up on him in 1 year, or they drafted him with the view that he was "a scat back". I'm not convinced that either of those scenarios makes any sense. The Saints didn't give up on Reggie Bush after 1 year.....why would the Bills "give up" on Spiller?

Reggie Bush is considered a very effective NFL player but not so much in Fantasy Football... He also isn't the bigger half of the RBBC as far as carries go...Yet, they do great with Bush on the field..The earlier a player is drafted, you expect the more valuable he will be to his team, that value doesn't always work out in a way that we Fantasy guys would like...

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Marshawn Lynch was a high draft pick, too. So? Reggie Bush was 1.02 and he got 155 carries his first year and has never gotten more than 157.

Marshawn Lynch carried the load for two years. Reggie Bush was approx. RB12 in PPG his first two seasons. So?

So, Reggie Bush has been used as a scat back his entire career, despite the fact that he's both a higher draft pick than Spiller, and more talented than Spiller. The argument that Spiller will get 200+ carries because he was a high draft picks makes no sense at all.

I didn't say that. And sorry, but I don't see a gigantic difference between the #2 pick and the #9 pick. Both are top-ten picks.

Reggie Bush was productive in fantasy his first two seasons. (at least when he played) It's not at all clear what you are trying to argue.

I think he was supplying opposition to your argument that Spiller won't be a scat back...

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Reggie Bush is considered a very effective NFL player but not so much in Fantasy Football... He also isn't the bigger half of the RBBC as far as carries go...Yet, they do great with Bush on the field..The earlier a player is drafted, you expect the more valuable he will be to his team, that value doesn't always work out in a way that we Fantasy guys would like...

Go back and look at Reggie Bush's PPG stats from his 1st two seasons. He was quite effective in fantasy football.BTW - I agree with your general comment that players don't always live up to their draft status. But is that really news?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I think he was supplying opposition to your argument that Spiller won't be a scat back...

Then he should say precisely that, rather than creating a strawman argument.

 

[moderated]

Marshawn Lynch was a high draft pick, too. So? Reggie Bush was 1.02 and he got 155 carries his first year and has never gotten more than 157.

Marshawn Lynch carried the load for two years. Reggie Bush was approx. RB12 in PPG his first two seasons. So?

So, Reggie Bush has been used as a scat back his entire career, despite the fact that he's both a higher draft pick than Spiller, and more talented than Spiller. The argument that Spiller will get 200+ carries because he was a high draft picks makes no sense at all.

Its about touches, not just carries, and NO drafted Reggie to get a lot of touches. It just so happened it didnt work out.For a rookie he got a lot of touches and then was getting 19 a game his 2nd season.No team drafts a guy that early expecting him to become a role player, they are drafted that early expected to become a major part of the team. If they fail when given the opportunity then those touches diminish, but they are almost always at least given the opportunity for a couple seasons to show whether they can become a major contributer.Teams draft guys expecting scat back production later in the draft, not in the top 10.If spiller fails then so be it, but he'll get a bunch of touches to show whether he's a failure or not.Im not saying year 1 he'll get a sure 250+ touches, but he'll get quite a bit and in his 2nd year he'll almost surely get a shot at a bunch of touches.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

Reggie Bush is considered a very effective NFL player but not so much in Fantasy Football... He also isn't the bigger half of the RBBC as far as carries go...

Yet, they do great with Bush on the field..

The earlier a player is drafted, you expect the more valuable he will be to his team, that value doesn't always work out in a way that we Fantasy guys would like...

Go back and look at Reggie Bush's PPG stats from his 1st two seasons. He was quite effective in fantasy football.BTW - I agree with your general comment that players don't always live up to their draft status. But is that really news?

Bush's PPG doesn't tell the story when considering whether or not spiller will get the bulk of the carries, or whether he'll be a scat back, or whether he'll be the #1 rookie in production. Actually, Bush would typically disprove the popular opinion here if that was the only criteria we were using..And the fact that you and others are quoting Spiller's draft status, and the fact that 3 of the last 4 top drafted rookie RB's are largely considered fantasy busts would bring me to the conclusion that it must be news for some of you...

 

[CalBear]

Marshawn Lynch was a high draft pick, too. So? Reggie Bush was 1.02 and he got 155 carries his first year and has never gotten more than 157.

Marshawn Lynch carried the load for two years. Reggie Bush was approx. RB12 in PPG his first two seasons. So?

So, Reggie Bush has been used as a scat back his entire career, despite the fact that he's both a higher draft pick than Spiller, and more talented than Spiller. The argument that Spiller will get 200+ carries because he was a high draft picks makes no sense at all.

I didn't say that. And sorry, but I don't see a gigantic difference between the #2 pick and the #9 pick. Both are top-ten picks.

Reggie Bush was productive in fantasy his first two seasons. (at least when he played) It's not at all clear what you are trying to argue.

I am arguing that it is entirely possible that Buffalo intends Spiller to be a scat back, despite the fact that they drafted him with the ninth overall pick. He may or may not be a great fantasy option as a scat back; it seems unlikely, in Buffalo, but it's possible.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I think he was supplying opposition to your argument that Spiller won't be a scat back...

Then he should say precisely that, rather than creating a strawman argument.

I didn't really see him as creating the straw man in this one... And that very overused saying alone typically is the last line of defense around here when people have overstated their point and looking for a way to back out of the argument...I am so sick of seeing the phrase "strawman"...

 

[moderated]

Marshawn Lynch was a high draft pick, too. So? Reggie Bush was 1.02 and he got 155 carries his first year and has never gotten more than 157.

Marshawn Lynch carried the load for two years. Reggie Bush was approx. RB12 in PPG his first two seasons. So?

So, Reggie Bush has been used as a scat back his entire career, despite the fact that he's both a higher draft pick than Spiller, and more talented than Spiller. The argument that Spiller will get 200+ carries because he was a high draft picks makes no sense at all.

I didn't say that. And sorry, but I don't see a gigantic difference between the #2 pick and the #9 pick. Both are top-ten picks.

Reggie Bush was productive in fantasy his first two seasons. (at least when he played) It's not at all clear what you are trying to argue.

I am arguing that it is entirely possible that Buffalo intends Spiller to be a scat back, despite the fact that they drafted him with the ninth overall pick. He may or may not be a great fantasy option as a scat back; it seems unlikely, in Buffalo, but it's possible.

It depends on what you mean by scatback.I guarantee they didnt draft him that high to be a kevin faulk type scat back. He may end up like that but he was not drafted to play that role.

Now if you consider a guy who gets 160-190 carries/50-70 receptions a scatback then yes, they might have drafted him expecting to use him like that in the long run.

He wont be a 300 carry workhorse, but he doesn't need to be to be useful in FF as long as he gets solid touches.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

It depends on what you mean by scatback.I guarantee they didnt draft him that high to be a kevin faulk type scat back. He may end up like that but he was not drafted to play that role.Now if you consider a guy who gets 160-190 carries/50-70 receptions a scatback then yes, they might have drafted him expecting to use him like that in the long run.He wont be a 300 carry workhorse, but he doesn't need to be to be useful in FF as long as he gets solid touches.

Well put, i can agree with all of that

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I think he was supplying opposition to your argument that Spiller won't be a scat back...

Then he should say precisely that, rather than creating a strawman argument.

I didn't really see him as creating the straw man in this one... And that very overused saying alone typically is the last line of defense around here when people have overstated their point and looking for a way to back out of the argument...I am so sick of seeing the phrase "strawman"...

The phrase is used often because of how frequently people create false debates in the Shark Pool. If you've been around here a long time, you should know that.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

It depends on what you mean by scatback.I guarantee they didnt draft him that high to be a kevin faulk type scat back. He may end up like that but he was not drafted to play that role.Now if you consider a guy who gets 160-190 carries/50-70 receptions a scatback then yes, they might have drafted him expecting to use him like that in the long run.He wont be a 300 carry workhorse, but he doesn't need to be to be useful in FF as long as he gets solid touches.

Exactly. When I hear scat back, I think Kevin Faulk. And Spiller was definitely not drafted #9 overall to be Kevin Faulk.Nowhere in this thread have I stated that Spiller will get 300 carries per season - that seems like crazy talk to me. But if he gets ~225-250 touches per year, I would expect him to be a productive fantasy RB. Let's go back and look at Reggie Bush's production in his 1st 2 seasons. 2006: - 16 games played (only 8 started), 155 rushes + 88 catches = 243 touches, or 15 touches per game - 565 yds rushing + 742 yds receiving = 1307 total yards, or 82 yds per game- 6 rushing TDs + 2 receiving TDs = 8 total TDs, or 0.5 TDs per game - In standard scoring, he had 178.7 points, or 11.2 PPG2007: - 12 games played (10 started), 157 rushes + 73 catches = 230 touches, or 19 touches per game - 581 yds rushing + 417 yds receiving = 998 total yards , or 83 yds per game4 rushing TDs + 2 receiving TDs = 6 total TDs, or 0.5 TDs per gameIn standard scoring, he had 135.8 points, or 11.3 PPGI would be glad to see Spiller used the same way that Bush was in his 1st 2 seasons.Edit to add: if you look at Bush's production in all 4 seasons, the real outlier in his usage pattern is 2009. For 2008, he only played in 10 games -- so part of his down production is due to continuing inability to stay healthy (we can debate whether or not that implies Spiller will also struggle to stay healthy). Yet in 2008 he still averaged 84 yds per game, 16 touches per game, 0.6 TDs per game, and 12 fantasy PPG. Then he has a major dip in 2009 - either due to continuing injury or the coaching staff's awareness (finally) that Bush cannot be relied upon to get 16-19 touches per game and stay healthy. He had ~ 8 touches per game, 50 yds per game, though still got ~0.6 TDs per game. Fantasy points dipped to ~8 PPG.

 

[TheFanatic]

Marshawn Lynch was a high draft pick, too. So? Reggie Bush was 1.02 and he got 155 carries his first year and has never gotten more than 157.

Marshawn Lynch carried the load for two years. Reggie Bush was approx. RB12 in PPG his first two seasons. So?

You need to separate the NFL from the FFL. Reggie was a RB12 his first two seasons and is now a scat back because that didn't work. Spiller is going to have to be Chris Johnson North East in order to be a full time, 15 carry a game back. But if he's closer to Reggie than he is to Chris, he will be more of a situtational back which isn't a bad thing. Lining up with Spiller and either Jackson or Lynch in the backfield can wreak havoc on a D. The days of the single running back are a thing of the past. And yes, teams spend high draft picks on part of RBBC players...

 

[Carolina Hustler]

It depends on what you mean by scatback.I guarantee they didnt draft him that high to be a kevin faulk type scat back. He may end up like that but he was not drafted to play that role.Now if you consider a guy who gets 160-190 carries/50-70 receptions a scatback then yes, they might have drafted him expecting to use him like that in the long run.He wont be a 300 carry workhorse, but he doesn't need to be to be useful in FF as long as he gets solid touches.

Exactly. When I hear scat back, I think Kevin Faulk. And Spiller was definitely not drafted #9 overall to be Kevin Faulk.Nowhere in this thread have I stated that Spiller will get 300 carries per season - that seems like crazy talk to me. But if he gets ~225-250 touches per year, I would expect him to be a productive fantasy RB. Let's go back and look at Reggie Bush's production in his 1st 2 seasons. 2006: - 16 games played (only 8 started), 155 rushes + 88 catches = 243 touches, or 15 touches per game - 565 yds rushing + 742 yds receiving = 1307 total yards, or 82 yds per game- 6 rushing TDs + 2 receiving TDs = 8 total TDs, or 0.5 TDs per game - In standard scoring, he had 178.7 points, or 11.2 PPG2007: - 12 games played (10 started), 157 rushes + 73 catches = 230 touches, or 19 touches per game - 581 yds rushing + 417 yds receiving = 998 total yards , or 83 yds per game4 rushing TDs + 2 receiving TDs = 6 total TDs, or 0.5 TDs per gameIn standard scoring, he had 135.8 points, or 11.3 PPGI would be glad to see Spiller used the same way that Bush was in his 1st 2 seasons.Edit to add: if you look at Bush's production in all 4 seasons, the real outlier in his usage pattern is 2009. For 2008, he only played in 10 games -- so part of his down production is due to continuing inability to stay healthy (we can debate whether or not that implies Spiller will also struggle to stay healthy). Yet in 2008 he still averaged 84 yds per game, 16 touches per game, 0.6 TDs per game, and 12 fantasy PPG. Then he has a major dip in 2009 - either due to continuing injury or the coaching staff's awareness (finally) that Bush cannot be relied upon to get 16-19 touches per game and stay healthy. He had ~ 8 touches per game, 50 yds per game, though still got ~0.6 TDs per game. Fantasy points dipped to ~8 PPG.

So what are you trying to say?I doubt seriously Spiller gets 250 touches in his first year.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I think he was supplying opposition to your argument that Spiller won't be a scat back...

Then he should say precisely that, rather than creating a strawman argument.

I didn't really see him as creating the straw man in this one... And that very overused saying alone typically is the last line of defense around here when people have overstated their point and looking for a way to back out of the argument...I am so sick of seeing the phrase "strawman"...

The phrase is used often because of how frequently people create false debates in the Shark Pool. If you've been around here a long time, you should know that.

Can you show me where someone in this thread "created a false debate"?

 

[Carolina Hustler]

It depends on what you mean by scatback.I guarantee they didnt draft him that high to be a kevin faulk type scat back. He may end up like that but he was not drafted to play that role.Now if you consider a guy who gets 160-190 carries/50-70 receptions a scatback then yes, they might have drafted him expecting to use him like that in the long run.He wont be a 300 carry workhorse, but he doesn't need to be to be useful in FF as long as he gets solid touches.

Exactly. When I hear scat back, I think Kevin Faulk. And Spiller was definitely not drafted #9 overall to be Kevin Faulk.Nowhere in this thread have I stated that Spiller will get 300 carries per season - that seems like crazy talk to me. But if he gets ~225-250 touches per year, I would expect him to be a productive fantasy RB. Let's go back and look at Reggie Bush's production in his 1st 2 seasons. 2006: - 16 games played (only 8 started), 155 rushes + 88 catches = 243 touches, or 15 touches per game - 565 yds rushing + 742 yds receiving = 1307 total yards, or 82 yds per game- 6 rushing TDs + 2 receiving TDs = 8 total TDs, or 0.5 TDs per game - In standard scoring, he had 178.7 points, or 11.2 PPG2007: - 12 games played (10 started), 157 rushes + 73 catches = 230 touches, or 19 touches per game - 581 yds rushing + 417 yds receiving = 998 total yards , or 83 yds per game4 rushing TDs + 2 receiving TDs = 6 total TDs, or 0.5 TDs per gameIn standard scoring, he had 135.8 points, or 11.3 PPGI would be glad to see Spiller used the same way that Bush was in his 1st 2 seasons.Edit to add: if you look at Bush's production in all 4 seasons, the real outlier in his usage pattern is 2009. For 2008, he only played in 10 games -- so part of his down production is due to continuing inability to stay healthy (we can debate whether or not that implies Spiller will also struggle to stay healthy). Yet in 2008 he still averaged 84 yds per game, 16 touches per game, 0.6 TDs per game, and 12 fantasy PPG. Then he has a major dip in 2009 - either due to continuing injury or the coaching staff's awareness (finally) that Bush cannot be relied upon to get 16-19 touches per game and stay healthy. He had ~ 8 touches per game, 50 yds per game, though still got ~0.6 TDs per game. Fantasy points dipped to ~8 PPG.

So what are you trying to say?I doubt seriously Spiller gets 250 touches in his first year.

Certainly more a possibility now that his counterparts are injured...

 

[ProBowler88]

bump for thoughts?

 

[GoBills02]

On Lynch's 4 carries tonite, he was trying out to be Barry Sanders body double, and instead of hitting the hole, tried dancing around. I know he has been injured, but Lynch looked like he hasn't touched the field in 3 weeks, which he hasn't. Spiller did not play.