Fred Jackson in 2012 (1 Viewer)

[RavenLunatic]

How undervalued will Fred Jackson be in 2012?

Redraft value, not Dynasty.

I think in 2012 he will finish as a top 5 RB and pickup where he left off in 2011. Knowing this player I imagine he feels he has some unfinished business before he turns more of the offense over to Spiller in 2013.

 

[Spanky24]

I don't think there is anyway at all that Jackson finishes in the top 5 at RB.

He was very productive until he got hurt but I think Spiller impressed in his absence.

Thinking Spiller cuts into Jackson's touches and we see more of a 60 (Jackson) / 40 (Spiller) split this season.

I have no dog in this race by the way.

 

[rizzler]

Spiller makes the job his.

 

[Shutout]

I'm not ready to say Spiller will have the biggest impact. I don't think that will be the case.

But I do know that FJAX's age suggest that, sooner than later, and probably with little warning, he will hit that proverbial wall. It doesn't happen to everyone. But for every Thomas Jones and there is an LT. For every Corey Dillon, a Larry Johnson.

It may not happen, but odds say it does and IF Spiller shows a good degree of production in what will be a split, then I think it makes things for FJAX shaky.

He could be one of these guys that does very well early and helps fantasy teams but then becomes used a lot less in November and December.

I think its a legitimate buyer beware scenario.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Anyone want to hazard a guess on his ADP? Early RB20s maybe?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'm not ready to say Spiller will have the biggest impact. I don't think that will be the case.

But I do know that FJAX's age suggest that, sooner than later, and probably with little warning, he will hit that proverbial wall. It doesn't happen to everyone. But for every Thomas Jones and there is an LT. For every Corey Dillon, a Larry Johnson.

It may not happen, but odds say it does and IF Spiller shows a good degree of production in what will be a split, then I think it makes things for FJAX shaky.

He could be one of these guys that does very well early and helps fantasy teams but then becomes used a lot less in November and December.

I think its a legitimate buyer beware scenario.

bolded = IF.Did you see his production when given the full load last year? rock solid.

I see that Spiller at his ADP is the true bargain IMO

 

[Return of the Sheep]

I'm not ready to say Spiller will have the biggest impact. I don't think that will be the case.

But I do know that FJAX's age suggest that, sooner than later, and probably with little warning, he will hit that proverbial wall. It doesn't happen to everyone. But for every Thomas Jones and there is an LT. For every Corey Dillon, a Larry Johnson.

It may not happen, but odds say it does and IF Spiller shows a good degree of production in what will be a split, then I think it makes things for FJAX shaky.

He could be one of these guys that does very well early and helps fantasy teams but then becomes used a lot less in November and December.

I think its a legitimate buyer beware scenario.

bolded = IF.Did you see his production when given the full load last year? rock solid.

I see that Spiller at his ADP is the true bargain IMO

I see Jackson doing very well this year, while I also see spiller having a nice season as well. I think they will run the wheels off Jackson while he is there to extend Spiller's shelf life. Due to an improved defense I think there will be more scoring ops with the majority of those going to Jackson. I can see 1400 total yards with 8-11 tds. Not sure where that would put him, but probably top 10-15.

 

[Tanner9919]

Jackson had 15 or more carries in 7 games, two games with 26 carries, while Spiller's highest carry totals were 19 v. Jets, 16 v. Denver, pounding out 12 and 13 carry games down the stretch, while Jackson had fewer than 15 carries/gm three times ( 12,13,7 - the game he got injured). It's fairly obvious that Gailey sees Jackson as an every down back but views Spiller as someone who can't quite carry a full load..just check Spiller's stats, rushing totals are way down compared to FJax..that's why I think Jackson comes back to where he was last season, a top 5/10 RB before the injury, pushing Spiller back to 3rd down duties.

to invest heavily in Spiller, a guy who played OK in 5 games but couldn't get out of his own way the year before, is dangerous..Fjax is the play here, IMO, not Spiller - he's still one year away from taking over..

 

[Dr. Octopus]

How undervalued will Fred Jackson be in 2012? Redraft value, not Dynasty. I think in 2012 he will finish as a top 5 RB and pickup where he left off in 2011. Knowing this player I imagine he feels he has some unfinished business before he turns more of the offense over to Spiller in 2013.

You may be right thinking he is under-valued, because I have a difficult time thinking a 31 yaer old RB coming off a broken leg - who will be pushed by a highly drafted much younger back - will finish in the top 5.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I'm not ready to say Spiller will have the biggest impact. I don't think that will be the case.

But I do know that FJAX's age suggest that, sooner than later, and probably with little warning, he will hit that proverbial wall. It doesn't happen to everyone. But for every Thomas Jones and there is an LT. For every Corey Dillon, a Larry Johnson.

It may not happen, but odds say it does and IF Spiller shows a good degree of production in what will be a split, then I think it makes things for FJAX shaky.

He could be one of these guys that does very well early and helps fantasy teams but then becomes used a lot less in November and December.

I think its a legitimate buyer beware scenario.

bolded = IF.Did you see his production when given the full load last year? rock solid.

I see that Spiller at his ADP is the true bargain IMO

I see Jackson doing very well this year, while I also see spiller having a nice season as well. I think they will run the wheels off Jackson while he is there to extend Spiller's shelf life. Due to an improved defense I think there will be more scoring ops with the majority of those going to Jackson. I can see 1400 total yards with 8-11 tds. Not sure where that would put him, but probably top 10-15.

You see Jackson totaling 1,400 yards and scoring 11 TDs while also seeing Spiller having a nice season? You're showing a lot of faith in the Buffalo Bills' offense.

 

[matttyl]

You see Jackson totaling 1,400 yards and scoring 11 TDs while also seeing Spiller having a nice season? You're showing a lot of faith in the Buffalo Bills' offense.

F Jax' TD total is WAY high, but the yardage might not be. He had nearly 1,400 yards last year in 10.5 games, so why wouldn't he this year assuming a full 16? His career high in TDs has been 7, and that was as the "bell cow", so I can't see him beating that this year "sharing". Spiller had over 800 yards from scrimmage last year, and he didn't do anything till week 12. I can see F Jax having 1,400 again, and Spiller breaking 1,000 - but maybe only 11-14 TDs total between them.

 

[Touchdown There]

I can't compute why they are going to give Fred Jackson a new contract (at his age) before the season starts. If they give him a decent sized contract, you would think he is going to get 60% of the touches.

New contract or not, this situation will be the opposite of last year when it was Fred in the beginning and Spiller at the end. This will be RBBC and there will have to be another injury for one guy to blow up.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

You see Jackson totaling 1,400 yards and scoring 11 TDs while also seeing Spiller having a nice season? You're showing a lot of faith in the Buffalo Bills' offense.

F Jax' TD total is WAY high, but the yardage might not be. He had nearly 1,400 yards last year in 10.5 games, so why wouldn't he this year assuming a full 16? His career high in TDs has been 7, and that was as the "bell cow", so I can't see him beating that this year "sharing". Spiller had over 800 yards from scrimmage last year, and he didn't do anything till week 12. I can see F Jax having 1,400 again, and Spiller breaking 1,000 - but maybe only 11-14 TDs total between them.

Several reasons I already mentioned: He'll be 31 this season; he's coming off a broken leg (which surely isn't a deathknell type injury but at his age it could take away some of his speed, flexibility); Spiller looks like he has earned a bigger role in the offense - and also last year looks like a "career year" to me.I like Jackson and think he's always been a somewhat under-rated talent, but the cards seem to be stacked against him repeating his best season ever at this point in his career.

 

[matttyl]

As I own both in a dynasty league, I really hope one of them take an 80% share or more, I just don't see that happening. F Jax has been such a huge part of their offense for years now, there will be a transition period.

 

[Shutout]

I'm not ready to say Spiller will have the biggest impact. I don't think that will be the case.

But I do know that FJAX's age suggest that, sooner than later, and probably with little warning, he will hit that proverbial wall. It doesn't happen to everyone. But for every Thomas Jones and there is an LT. For every Corey Dillon, a Larry Johnson.

It may not happen, but odds say it does and IF Spiller shows a good degree of production in what will be a split, then I think it makes things for FJAX shaky.

He could be one of these guys that does very well early and helps fantasy teams but then becomes used a lot less in November and December.

I think its a legitimate buyer beware scenario.

bolded = IF.Did you see his production when given the full load last year? rock solid.

I see that Spiller at his ADP is the true bargain IMO

I see Jackson doing very well this year, while I also see spiller having a nice season as well. I think they will run the wheels off Jackson while he is there to extend Spiller's shelf life. Due to an improved defense I think there will be more scoring ops with the majority of those going to Jackson. I can see 1400 total yards with 8-11 tds. Not sure where that would put him, but probably top 10-15.

And that is why I think this is a bitter sweet, at best, situation for FJAX and his owners this year because, lets be practical, at 31 years old, you aren't envisioning holding anything back for FJAX at this point in his career. THe GM certainly isn't thinking of coming back next year when he is 32 and featuring him.So, they will probably use him a lot and he WILL be productive, but when we get to the last 6 weeks or so of the season, I think its really likely that an almost 32 year old Rb who has 200+ carries in him at that point in the season will slip to the side.

Its probably smart to look at this contract they are talking of giving him soon. If that thing is set up to give big enticing money NEXT year and has incentives this year, then I think its a big sign they are tossing him some money to make him feel good, dangling some big money in the future with every intention of using him up now.

 

[Return of the Sheep]

You see Jackson totaling 1,400 yards and scoring 11 TDs while also seeing Spiller having a nice season? You're showing a lot of faith in the Buffalo Bills' offense.

F Jax' TD total is WAY high, but the yardage might not be. He had nearly 1,400 yards last year in 10.5 games, so why wouldn't he this year assuming a full 16? His career high in TDs has been 7, and that was as the "bell cow", so I can't see him beating that this year "sharing". Spiller had over 800 yards from scrimmage last year, and he didn't do anything till week 12. I can see F Jax having 1,400 again, and Spiller breaking 1,000 - but maybe only 11-14 TDs total between them.

Several reasons I already mentioned: He'll be 31 this season; he's coming off a broken leg (which surely isn't a deathknell type injury but at his age it could take away some of his speed, flexibility); Spiller looks like he has earned a bigger role in the offense - and also last year looks like a "career year" to me.I like Jackson and think he's always been a somewhat under-rated talent, but the cards seem to be stacked against him repeating his best season ever at this point in his career.

I can see Fjax at 1400 10-11, Spiller at 1000 4-5. I guess I see the large numbers due my prediction of a huge offensive breakout for the Bills this year. They remind me of a young Texans of sorts. Add in a highly improved D and I see a very good team that will be scoring often.

 

[Shutout]

You see Jackson totaling 1,400 yards and scoring 11 TDs while also seeing Spiller having a nice season? You're showing a lot of faith in the Buffalo Bills' offense.

F Jax' TD total is WAY high, but the yardage might not be. He had nearly 1,400 yards last year in 10.5 games, so why wouldn't he this year assuming a full 16? His career high in TDs has been 7, and that was as the "bell cow", so I can't see him beating that this year "sharing". Spiller had over 800 yards from scrimmage last year, and he didn't do anything till week 12. I can see F Jax having 1,400 again, and Spiller breaking 1,000 - but maybe only 11-14 TDs total between them.

Several reasons I already mentioned: He'll be 31 this season; he's coming off a broken leg (which surely isn't a deathknell type injury but at his age it could take away some of his speed, flexibility); Spiller looks like he has earned a bigger role in the offense - and also last year looks like a "career year" to me.I like Jackson and think he's always been a somewhat under-rated talent, but the cards seem to be stacked against him repeating his best season ever at this point in his career.

I can see Fjax at 1400 10-11, Spiller at 1000 4-5. I guess I see the large numbers due my prediction of a huge offensive breakout for the Bills this year. They remind me of a young Texans of sorts. Add in a highly improved D and I see a very good team that will be scoring often.

I don't have the numbers in front of me but how many teams have 2400 yards rushing, as a team and how often does one team produce two 1,000 yard rushers? I'm guessing this only happens occasionally and comes from some pretty good teams.

 

[matttyl]

I think he was talking about total yards from scrimmage for the pair, not just rushing yards. Anyway, only 3 teams last year had 2,400+ yards just rushing - Denver, Houston and Carolina. Buffalo barely broke 1,900.

2,400 isn't out of the question at all for the pair in regards to total yards....last year they had 2,200 combined.

 

[Ian F]

I am always a little nervous about how a valid a breakout like Spiller's is when it comes later in the year as fresh legs against worn down defenses

Clearly Spiller is talented but I am not ready to be all in as a future 300+ touch guy

 

[mbuehner]

I think the point is you can probly get Jackson cheap and his upside is huge while the cost is low enough to survive getting very little out of him. The pair is even better.

 

[zed2283]

 

[zamboni]

Looks like a clear RBBC, but if you're in a TD-heavy league, you have to think that Freddie will be getting the bulk of the goal line love. Just one aspect to consider.

 

[RavenLunatic]

At their current ADP in a redraft I think the value is there compared to the rookies and other maybes. Especially if grabbing the pair. Similar to DMac and Bush from last year.

I said top 5 because FJax was right there when he got hurt. If he was scoring more it would have been even more pronounced.

Could have a season similar to the year Ray Rice flipped the job on McGahee. As we saw last year, Willis wasnt done but the team in Baltimore changed directions. Nix will respect FJax but he and Gailey have a personal incentive to see their Spiller pick pay dividends.