To commish is my wish
Footballguy
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/foot...tml?eref=si_nfl
What all MJD owners have been waiting for...
What all MJD owners have been waiting for...
Last edited by a moderator:
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Fred Taylor anticipates leaving Jax (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter To commish is my wish
- Start date
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
If this happens, MJD = #1 RB in 2009!!!!
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
:confetti:
BigJim®
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
MJD = MONSTER in '09
Black
Footballguy
I've had MJD since his rookie year in a keeper PPR league, but not sure he does his best work as the #1. He really does most damage with 15 carries/game, on 3rd down, and in short yardage. He's had a few stretches (last year a few games, this year one or two) where Fred was out or had no carries, and he didn't have great games. I think they need to bring in a complementary RB to keep him at his best.
Fantaholic
Footballguy
Why would this be any more substantial than JJ leaving MBIII alone in Dallas? If we are going to annoint MJD a Monster, then MBIII should be Jesus Christ? Not so much.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Barber's currently the #7 RB in my league. He's certain to go over 1000 yards and have double digit td's. He's pretty good.And personally, I think MJD has a better skillset than Barber.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
This isn't true. He still averages over 1 point per touch (PPR) in games he gets the ball 20+ times.I've been saying for two years that he's the next LT. If his O-line comes back healthy next year it could happen.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
From strictly a talent perspective, MJD>>Barber.
maxwjom0
Footballguy
You guys act like JAX will not get somebody to replace Taylor. I mean MJD will prob be the starter but I guess there is still a pretty good chance he'll be splitting carries w somebody
Englishteacher
Footballguy
Kevin Jones a Jaguar next year?
edit to add: then they'd have Jones Drew, Kevin Jones, and what's his name FB/RB.
edit to add: Greg Jones, FB/RB ........ and don't forget Matt Jones!
edit to add: then they'd have Jones Drew, Kevin Jones, and what's his name FB/RB.
edit to add: Greg Jones, FB/RB ........ and don't forget Matt Jones!
Last edited by a moderator:
Ozymandias
Footballguy
Now if they could just get Walter Jones from the Seahawks, imagine what MJD could do.
cowboymouth
Footballguy
time to grab chauncey washington off the wire?
Fantaholic
Footballguy
I haven't had a chance to see MJD play as much as I have Barber. However, I'm guessing the talent level comparison is debatable. However, when you factor in team philosophy and how they've handled their workload to this point, you have to temper your enthusiasm a bit. All I'm saying is I will not consider him a "monster" until I see him actually given a "monster type" role and him handle it.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
At which point you will be priced out of the MJD market for the next seven years.
Last edited by a moderator:
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
I think Greg Jones is a better ballcarrier than Washington. I wouldn't be surprised to see them draft a back to compete with Washington to be the backup... and both be beaten out by Greg when it comes to spelling Drew. Even more likely is Edge James, or something similar. An older vet, playing for less, willing to just get some carries at the tail end of his career. D.Ward, if the Giants let him walk (the most likely of the 3 headed monster to leave IMO) could be a great complimentary back too. Lots of options that, to me, look much better than Chauncey.
ThePittbully
Footballguy
I think Greg Jones is a better ballcarrier than Washington. I wouldn't be surprised to see them draft a back to compete with Washington to be the backup... and both be beaten out by Greg when it comes to spelling Drew. Even more likely is Edge James, or something similar. An older vet, playing for less, willing to just get some carries at the tail end of his career. D.Ward, if the Giants let him walk (the most likely of the 3 headed monster to leave IMO) could be a great complimentary back too. Lots of options that, to me, look much better than Chauncey.
I think Jones will end up being the guy the Jags end up going with, Del Rio loves him and in limited touches he's done well. And I could be wrong but didnt he just get a pretty nice contract for a FB?. I'd predict probably a 70/30 or 65/35 split with MJD obviously getting the lion's share
Last edited by a moderator:
Fantaholic
Footballguy
To me, a monster, at RB, implies top 5. He's all yours.
treat88
Footballguy
Very debatable.I'm not sure how to actually measure "talent". Do we look at combine numbers, college production, draft position, NFL production.....other variables?"Talent" is a word thrown around a lot, with no clear definition and usually used in lieu of on field production based discussions.Personally, of the criteria I mentioned, MJD stacks up with the elite RB's of recent memory.I think it's reasonable to say that he has as good of a chance at producing like an elite RB, if given the carries, as any back in the game.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
In case you hadn't noticed, MBIII's value rose exponentially in the offseason in which JJ left town, even with them drafting another RB in the 1st round.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
In almost all my leagues, he is!
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
And has been in the top 12 in each of his first two years as well.In almost all my leagues, he is!
maxwjom0
Footballguy
Let's see.....let's quickly name about 10 RBs I would rather have the MJD with or wo Fred Taylor. In no particular order....
1. ADP
2. Gore
3. Portis
4. Forte
5. LT2
6. Ronnie Brown
7. Steve Slaton
8. Barber
9. Westbrook
10. Reggie Bush
MJD gets a slight bump with Taylor leaving, but he'll still be splitting carries with somebody
1. ADP
2. Gore
3. Portis
4. Forte
5. LT2
6. Ronnie Brown
7. Steve Slaton
8. Barber
9. Westbrook
10. Reggie Bush
MJD gets a slight bump with Taylor leaving, but he'll still be splitting carries with somebody
Zow
Footballguy
Brown and Slaton? Really? MJD has put up big numbers every season he has played and his production doesn't drop much with more carries. He's currently a top ten this year with splitting carries, his team playing poorly, and a hurt o-line. It's absolutely no stretch to say he's top 5-7 with Fred T. gone next year. I don't know what more you want to see out of the guy. He can catch, break long runs, get tough short yardage, loves the end zone. I'd happily take him as a mid-first next year.Let's see.....let's quickly name about 10 RBs I would rather have the MJD with or wo Fred Taylor. In no particular order....1. ADP2. Gore3. Portis4. Forte5. LT26. Ronnie Brown7. Steve Slaton8. Barber9. Westbrook10. Reggie BushMJD gets a slight bump with Taylor leaving, but he'll still be splitting carries with somebody
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
So you think MJD gets a slight bump with Taylor gone, but you project him finishing worse than previous seasons? :(Let's see.....let's quickly name about 10 RBs I would rather have the MJD with or wo Fred Taylor. In no particular order....1. ADP2. Gore3. Portis4. Forte5. LT26. Ronnie Brown7. Steve Slaton8. Barber9. Westbrook10. Reggie BushMJD gets a slight bump with Taylor leaving, but he'll still be splitting carries with somebody
Everybody has just commented on MJD's potential next year so I guess I'll be the first. Not a Jax homer or anything but Fred Taylor is a class act in the NFL and it kind of sucks how much the NFL has changed into such a numbers game. It's so rare to see players finish out their careers on the team they love and played so hard for. If we weren't stacked on the Giants I wouldn't mind having fred as a backup, great competitor, great guy. This Bud Light is for you fragile fred.
If Taylor is gone, I'd take MJD over every guy on that list except Peterson.Let's see.....let's quickly name about 10 RBs I would rather have the MJD with or wo Fred Taylor. In no particular order....1. ADP2. Gore3. Portis4. Forte5. LT26. Ronnie Brown7. Steve Slaton8. Barber9. Westbrook10. Reggie BushMJD gets a slight bump with Taylor leaving, but he'll still be splitting carries with somebody
Traders2001
Footballguy
maxwjom0 said:Let's see.....let's quickly name about 10 RBs I would rather have the MJD with or wo Fred Taylor. In no particular order....1. ADP2. Gore3. Portis4. Forte5. LT26. Ronnie Brown7. Steve Slaton8. Barber9. Westbrook10. Reggie BushMJD gets a slight bump with Taylor leaving, but he'll still be splitting carries with somebody
I don't get the guys down on MJD. In my league, standard scoring, no PPR, 6pts all TD, here is where MJD has ranked:
2006: 7th
2007: 15th
2008: 11th
Not bad for a time-splitting RB, and the numbers only should improve as he gets more touches. I agree that MJD won't get every single touch, but he'll be the #1 guy, get plenty of touches, and continue to get the goal line work.
2006: 7th
2007: 15th
2008: 11th
Not bad for a time-splitting RB, and the numbers only should improve as he gets more touches. I agree that MJD won't get every single touch, but he'll be the #1 guy, get plenty of touches, and continue to get the goal line work.
packersfan
Footballguy
I agree. He looks terrible this season. As far as MJD in 2009, I agree with the sentiment that Taylor departing makes his value soar. I think he's Top 10 for sure with Top 5 potential - especially in PPR leagues. Yes the Jags will bring in a RB to replace Taylor, but I doubt that RB will have the talent Taylor possessed or command the respect of the coaching staff to ensure he gets the number of carries Taylor continues to get despite the fact he clearly looks awful this season. No Taylor = HUGE MJD rewards in 2009 barring injury.
packersfan
Footballguy
As we sit here today, the RBs I'd for sure take on that list ahead of MJD are:ADPGoreBarberWestbrookThat's it. In standard scoring leagues I'd probably take Portis ahead of him too. In a PPR league, I'd take Bush over him but it's damn close if MJD is the starter. So either way, I think MJD will be looking at a ranking in the 5-10 region on many (if not most) cheat sheets next year.maxwjom0 said:Let's see.....let's quickly name about 10 RBs I would rather have the MJD with or wo Fred Taylor. In no particular order....1. ADP2. Gore3. Portis4. Forte5. LT26. Ronnie Brown7. Steve Slaton8. Barber9. Westbrook10. Reggie BushMJD gets a slight bump with Taylor leaving, but he'll still be splitting carries with somebody
Wildman
Footballguy
I definitely have to weigh in on this one. When comparing runners as best one can away from the context of their surrounding talent, I think Maurice Jones Drew is among the best in football as an all-purpose threat. I've always been a huge fan and champion of Brian Westbrook's game and I believe Maurice Jones Drew has better skills and instincts than Westbrook. He runs with much more power, catches the ball nearly as well, is better in pass protection, and has better breakaway speed, vision, and moves in the open field than Westbrook.
The Jaguars have never had a great offensive line. Even last year, the Jags line was average and the leg up they had was also due to Garrard's ability to break the pocket and gain significant yardage. This year, the Jags line has been beaten up since week one and the receiving corps lacked stability.
The reason MBIII owners and fans could see Barber's 2008 production coming from a mile away was partially due to the way the Cowboys used their rotation. Unlike many RBBCs where coordinators substitute backs in down and distance situations or with specific play calls, Dallas often used MBIII as the closer in the fourth quarter. This allowed Barber to get into the flow of the game. Maybe talking about the flow of the game or the rhythm of the game seems too "esoteric", but it's like any job. If you ever performed manual labor, cooked on a line at a restaurant, or did some sort of repetitive work you realize you get more efficient and productive in your job when you are getting frequent, if not consecutive, opportunities to do the task. If you get thrust into the process and then taken out after one attempt, it's more difficult to get your mind locked into reading and reacting as well.
MJD, much like Westbrook in the earlier stages of his career, is not always given the chances to get into the flow of the game as the primary runner. I doubt the Jags feel he's too small to be a between the tackles runner. Otherwise they wouldn't use him in short yardage and goal line situations as frequently as they have. Based on how they use their backs, it just seems Taylor is valued for his skills and they like to have a one-two punch to wear down the opposing defense and hope the defense also misplays the way to defend one of these backs with all the switching back and forth. It's been effective for the Jags in many respects (the win-loss column for the first two years), but it's not as fantasy friendly as having a Forte, Portis, Peterson, Turner kind of back.
If MJD is allowed to be the main back, a reasonable person would expect the Jags staff to make adjustments to the offense around his greatest strengths. Because MJD has good power and can finish a run more effectively than a player like Westbrook, I don't believe they would try to tailor the ground game around something you'd normally see for a back of his speed and agility. There will be plays of that sort, but I still think they will feel comfortable pounding it between the tackles behind a fullback. I think they would run more screens, draws, and delays but the greatest difference in production we would see from MJD if Taylor leaves is that he'll have more opportunities to break big plays because he's simply getting the ball more and able to act on tendencies he's spotting from the defense.
If Taylor leaves Jacksonville, I would have no problem with projecting MJD as a 1300-yard, 12-TD back on the ground with a chance to gain 500 receiving yards and another 4-6 scores through the air. A back with his vision, balance, power, and speed packed into that short frame is freakish. Think about how well Travis Henry did early in his career in Buffalo. Drew is almost as strong, has a lot more speed, and his agility is on another level. Henry's style was aptly described as a bowling ball with butcher knives. MJD is more like a pinball packing a shotgun.
Effective FF strategy is a future-oriented skill. You always have to try to think ahead of the curve and conventional wisdom does not allow you to do it because convention isn't viewed as dynamic. The only thing we can count on is change. So if I were to look at the backs I'd rather have over MJD if Taylor left, here's my list.
1. Peterson
2. Forte
3. Gore
And if Peterson or Forte exceed the workload threshold I use to measure backs for future performance, which they are on track to come close (Portis exceeded it), I might not even want them. The toe injury to LT is something I'm not going to take lightly for next year. This is one of the worst injuries for a runner to have and I'm concerned it may never fully heal (see Eddie George's career). The great thing about MJD's prospects is he'll be a terrific back to draft as your #2 RB, but likely get #1 RB production.
The Jaguars have never had a great offensive line. Even last year, the Jags line was average and the leg up they had was also due to Garrard's ability to break the pocket and gain significant yardage. This year, the Jags line has been beaten up since week one and the receiving corps lacked stability.
The reason MBIII owners and fans could see Barber's 2008 production coming from a mile away was partially due to the way the Cowboys used their rotation. Unlike many RBBCs where coordinators substitute backs in down and distance situations or with specific play calls, Dallas often used MBIII as the closer in the fourth quarter. This allowed Barber to get into the flow of the game. Maybe talking about the flow of the game or the rhythm of the game seems too "esoteric", but it's like any job. If you ever performed manual labor, cooked on a line at a restaurant, or did some sort of repetitive work you realize you get more efficient and productive in your job when you are getting frequent, if not consecutive, opportunities to do the task. If you get thrust into the process and then taken out after one attempt, it's more difficult to get your mind locked into reading and reacting as well.
MJD, much like Westbrook in the earlier stages of his career, is not always given the chances to get into the flow of the game as the primary runner. I doubt the Jags feel he's too small to be a between the tackles runner. Otherwise they wouldn't use him in short yardage and goal line situations as frequently as they have. Based on how they use their backs, it just seems Taylor is valued for his skills and they like to have a one-two punch to wear down the opposing defense and hope the defense also misplays the way to defend one of these backs with all the switching back and forth. It's been effective for the Jags in many respects (the win-loss column for the first two years), but it's not as fantasy friendly as having a Forte, Portis, Peterson, Turner kind of back.
If MJD is allowed to be the main back, a reasonable person would expect the Jags staff to make adjustments to the offense around his greatest strengths. Because MJD has good power and can finish a run more effectively than a player like Westbrook, I don't believe they would try to tailor the ground game around something you'd normally see for a back of his speed and agility. There will be plays of that sort, but I still think they will feel comfortable pounding it between the tackles behind a fullback. I think they would run more screens, draws, and delays but the greatest difference in production we would see from MJD if Taylor leaves is that he'll have more opportunities to break big plays because he's simply getting the ball more and able to act on tendencies he's spotting from the defense.
If Taylor leaves Jacksonville, I would have no problem with projecting MJD as a 1300-yard, 12-TD back on the ground with a chance to gain 500 receiving yards and another 4-6 scores through the air. A back with his vision, balance, power, and speed packed into that short frame is freakish. Think about how well Travis Henry did early in his career in Buffalo. Drew is almost as strong, has a lot more speed, and his agility is on another level. Henry's style was aptly described as a bowling ball with butcher knives. MJD is more like a pinball packing a shotgun.
Effective FF strategy is a future-oriented skill. You always have to try to think ahead of the curve and conventional wisdom does not allow you to do it because convention isn't viewed as dynamic. The only thing we can count on is change. So if I were to look at the backs I'd rather have over MJD if Taylor left, here's my list.
1. Peterson
2. Forte
3. Gore
And if Peterson or Forte exceed the workload threshold I use to measure backs for future performance, which they are on track to come close (Portis exceeded it), I might not even want them. The toe injury to LT is something I'm not going to take lightly for next year. This is one of the worst injuries for a runner to have and I'm concerned it may never fully heal (see Eddie George's career). The great thing about MJD's prospects is he'll be a terrific back to draft as your #2 RB, but likely get #1 RB production.
switz
Footballguy
Though I also feel, both of them are not "carry the load" type RBs. We've already seen this year that Barber is incapable of carrying the load. MJD hasn't really been given that option yet in Jax, but I don't think they'll ever give him that opportunity.Both RBs are potential #1 RBs from a FF perspective, but neither are top-5 RBs. Both have been highly dependent on TDs throughout their career to boost their FF points. And being a starter doesn't necessarily increase that aspect of scoring, sometimes it decreases it if they bring in a GL specialist to give their "starter" a break.
This isn't a situation where you have a guy like Turner backing up LT. MJD has had Taylor ahead of him (who is great), Barber had Julius Jones (not-so-great). That in itself says a lot about their prospects as NFL "starter" quality.
switz
Footballguy
Same things were being said about Barber before this season. In fact, wasn't there a top-3 RB thread about Barber? He's currently sitting at #7, and likely to not put up great numbers for the next few games. It's awful dangerous to look at part time players (not backups, but RBBC guys), and project out a huge leap in stats based on more attempts.
Facecow
Footballguy
Don't know if I agree with all of this but...
packersfan
Footballguy
We have? He's Top 10 in the league in rushing. He's rushed for at least 60 yards in a game seven times (and had 59 in one game). He's had 100 total yards in a game seven times and he's had at least three receptions in a game seven times. According to FBG's stats, he ranks sixth among RBs in standard scoring leagues in total points per game. That's one spot higher than his ADP on Aug. 25th according to FBG, meaning he's outperformed his draft position thus far. And his production would almost certainly have been better had Romo not been injured. When Johnson was at QB (and Bollinger), teams could load up to stop Barber because there was no threat of a passing game whatsoever. Barber has more than answered the question that he can carry the load as Dallas' starting RB. He's one of the best RBs in the league and has proven that again this year without question in my opinion.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I watched nearly every Jags game in 2006 and 2007 (living here I didn't have much of a choice until I finally sprung for DTV this year), and this statement could not be more offbase, at least when it comes to run blocking.Look at Fred Taylor's YPC, by year, through 2007:
4.6
4.6
4.8
3.9
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.1
5.0
5.4 (age 31)
The guy put up the two highest YPC's at the ages of 30 and 31. A career 4.6ypc guy put up 5.4ypc at the age of THIRTY ONE. Fred Taylor didn't magically become a better RB at the age of 31 than he was at the age of 25. That doesn't happen.
What happened was he had, far and away, the best run blocking of his career and, far and away, some of the best run blocking in the NFL. Yeah, getting fewer carries didn't hurt, but he'd been down that path before and still come nowhere near 5.4.
I'm not making an argument that MJD isn't uber talented here, because he is, and if Taylor is gone next year I'll be doing everything I can to get him on my teams. But even being considered a "good" line, the Jags run blocking unit was one of the most underrated I've seen. To call them bad or average the last two years (I'm not talking about this year) is just insulting to FBG reader's intelligence.
Last edited by a moderator:
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Marion Barber 2007, 16th Marion Barber 2008, 4thWhat was your point again, Switz?
To commish is my wish
Footballguy
Barber hasn't failed at anything this year. Dallas' GM failed (miserably) at arming the team with a competent #2 QB.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I don't even have to look...MJD does more with less touches than just about anybody (of the RBs with a decent amount of touches, anyway). Here's some numbers for you (standard PPR league I'm in):
* Westbrook is ranked 7th, MJD 8th, & Peterson 9th
* Westbrook is about 3 points ahead of MJD, but has 38 more touches
* Not only has Peterson scored 3 less points, he's done it on ONE HUNDRED more touches (that's insane)
BTW, MJD is almost as impressive in non-PPR leagues. In a standard non-PPR league I'm in, Peterson has outscored MJD by just 14 points despite having those extra 100 touches.
Tell me MJD won't be a monster when Fred is gone. Yeah, he'll share with somebody. Everybody does nowdays, but I can assure you MJD will have the typical feature back split instead of getting less than 15 touches like he's averaging since he's been in the league. Del Rio has even hinted at it. It's simply time (for both Fred & MJD).
I posted awhile back about what MJD has done when he gets 20 touches. It's sick. I know I'm sure looking forwad to '09 as an MJD owner. There's no doubt in my mind he's got the potential to finish as the #1 RB next season.
* Westbrook is ranked 7th, MJD 8th, & Peterson 9th
* Westbrook is about 3 points ahead of MJD, but has 38 more touches
* Not only has Peterson scored 3 less points, he's done it on ONE HUNDRED more touches (that's insane)
BTW, MJD is almost as impressive in non-PPR leagues. In a standard non-PPR league I'm in, Peterson has outscored MJD by just 14 points despite having those extra 100 touches.
Tell me MJD won't be a monster when Fred is gone. Yeah, he'll share with somebody. Everybody does nowdays, but I can assure you MJD will have the typical feature back split instead of getting less than 15 touches like he's averaging since he's been in the league. Del Rio has even hinted at it. It's simply time (for both Fred & MJD).
I posted awhile back about what MJD has done when he gets 20 touches. It's sick. I know I'm sure looking forwad to '09 as an MJD owner. There's no doubt in my mind he's got the potential to finish as the #1 RB next season.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
They already have the back to compliment him/share with him on the roster in Greg Jones.Plus, Del Rio/the Jags love, love, LOVE Jones. If memory serves, they paid him a ton of money, for a FB, a season ago(I believe it was just a season) in part to ensure he was still around once Fred either retired/hit the dusty trail.I'd be surprised if they brought in someone else significant before exhausting the potential of Jones as part of the tailback rotation.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Hey Fred Taylor dynasty owners.......don't you wish you could trade him for a shot of Knob Creek? You can't drop him, yet you wish he would just go away. You almost wish he would retire so you could drop him without any compensation. It's compensation enough not to have to deal with him, right? I know what you mean, because I have him in 1 dynasty league. I would love to use the roster spot on someone that will amount to nuttin'
switz
Footballguy
Not sure what type of scoring you use, he's not that high in any of my leagues, nor apparently in some of the other posters...wdcrob said:
Of course scrumptrulescent says he's pretty good, but people were talking top-3 about Barber before the season, and BS in here was talking MJD top RB overall. It's just not likely MJD is going to jump to #1 or #3 RB if Taylor leaves, even though he is very talented.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Nor was he that low in 2007 in leagues where he's that high now.FBG player page:2007: 7 2008: 4MB3 has done better than I thought he would, but by the end of the year he'll probably barely be top 10.As for RBs I'd take above MJD w/o Taylor
etersonJohnsonForteGore
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Sorry for the confusion...should have been clearer...
I was using average points per game played. He's 4th in PPR leagues, and was 16th last year.
I was using average points per game played. He's 4th in PPR leagues, and was 16th last year.
Last edited by a moderator:
