Fred Taylor released (1 Viewer)

[Wadsworth]

Is Greg Jones still under contract?

Yes. He's signed until 2012 or 2013.

 

[Biabreakable]

Is Greg Jones still under contract?

Yes. He's signed until 2012 or 2013.

Thanks. I know he has struggled with injuries but I would assume he would now be more in the mix.

 

[Couch Potato]

Is Greg Jones still under contract?

Yes, signed a 5 year deal this time last year.Contract Information for Greg Jones

2/13/2008: Signed a five-year, $17.4 million contract. The deal included a $2.5 million signing bonus and a $1.5 million roster bonus in the first year. Another $3 million is available through incentives. 2009: $2.48 million (+ $500,000 roster bonus), 2010: $3 million, 2011: $3.1 million, 2012: $3.4 million, 2013: Free Agent

LINK

 

[TheFanatic]

fred Taylor released, according to NFL network.

http://www.jacksonville.com/sports/footbal...ed_from_jaguars

After reading that, I gotta say Fred Taylor is a class guy

 

[Trade Master]

MJD will have a good season, but don't expect user stud production from him. He'll have a few outstanding games, but most games will be RB#2 production. I'd rank him at #12-#15 range.

Interesting...he was RB10 in all of my leagues, as I would assume this be the case or close to it for other league. You actually feel Taylor not being there will lower his value?

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Just playing with MJD's projections...

He caught 61 passes for 555 and 2TDs last year. I don't see any reason this will change.

He carried 11 times/game and I think that'll bump to a minimum of, say, 17/game.

So roughly 272 carries and 60 receptions - or 21 touches per game and 332 for the season.

His added 100 carries should yield somewhere between 425 and 475 yards on top of 746 last year.

Ding his TD/carry numbers just a little since he was already getting the short yardage work and add five instead of the seven you'd get with a straightline projection. Which would give him 17 rushing TDs.

Putting it all together: 272 for 1200 (~4.4), 60 for 500, 19 total TDs

344 FF Pts - or about 22 per game. And it's not hard to imagine 300 carries at 5/pop and a couple more TDs either. Which would be more like 24/game.

 

[GECKO]

Agreed that FT is a class act.

Is the Greg Jones experiment over? Isn't he playing more of the fullback roll for the Jags now?

 

[FavreCo]

I think he'll be overvalued. Never had more than 200 carries in a season and I think the transition from RB2 or change-of-pace RB to RB1/bellcow is more difficult than many admit at this juncture.

I also see that no one has even mentioned the suckage of the Jax. passing game. MJD, meet 8-9 in the box every down. He will bust thru for some big gains but to rank the guy in the top 5 is ridiculous. The team around him sucks. The one time strenght (OL) sucks. The QB sucks. The WRs suck. Hell, their D sucks. They will be playing from behind next year.

 

[The Riv]

It seems counterintuitive that the very franchise that gave to the world the RBBC would move to a feature back format just as the rest of the NFL has bought in to the concept. I mean, there are still a mere handful of RBs worthy of the 'feature' moniker, but for the most part the NFL is a committee backfield organization. As a MJD owner in a keeper league, however, (and I chose to keep him over Marshawn Lynch!) I am intrigued with idea of him at least beginning the season as a semi-feature back. I suspect that the Jags will draft a RB at some point this April, but they need a legit #1 WR first, IMO, as Greg Jones is enough of a stop-gap guy.

 

[Couch Potato]

Agreed that FT is a class act.

Is the Greg Jones experiment over? Isn't he playing more of the fullback roll for the Jags now?

Jones was needed more at FB with MJD and FT there. Now he'll move into the role of complement to MJD and maybe get 100+ carries.

 

[geoff8695]

I'm not sure if I'll be able to afford him anymore in redraft leagues now that MJD's perceived value has finally caught up with his true value. He's likely to be a top 5 fantasy RB for the forseeable future, and is a perennial lock to be drafted early in the 1st round in any format.

Kudos to those dynasty owners who managed to acquire him while he was still affordable, those days are gone for good...

 

[Devine Intervention]

MJD will not be a top 5 fantasy back next season...mark it. Their offense sucks, and he'll be beat up if they try to do more with him than they have previous years. This is the second coming of the MBIII situation where the starter leaves and every thinks the specialty back is gonna blow it up and run for 2000 yrds, just craziness. Just like Barber, they will get a back that compliments MJD and use him kinda the same as they did this last year. Expect his production to go down, just due to the Jags as a team. And when Im absolutly right, Ill be sure to come back to this thread and repost it

 

[gianmarco]

MJD will not be a top 5 fantasy back next season...mark it. Their offense sucks, and he'll be beat up if they try to do more with him than they have previous years. This is the second coming of the MBIII situation where the starter leaves and every thinks the specialty back is gonna blow it up and run for 2000 yrds, just craziness. Just like Barber, they will get a back that compliments MJD and use him kinda the same as they did this last year. Expect his production to go down, just due to the Jags as a team. And when Im absolutly right, Ill be sure to come back to this thread and repost it

And when you're wrong....???

 

[Devine Intervention]

MJD will not be a top 5 fantasy back next season...mark it. Their offense sucks, and he'll be beat up if they try to do more with him than they have previous years. This is the second coming of the MBIII situation where the starter leaves and every thinks the specialty back is gonna blow it up and run for 2000 yrds, just craziness. Just like Barber, they will get a back that compliments MJD and use him kinda the same as they did this last year. Expect his production to go down, just due to the Jags as a team. And when Im absolutly right, Ill be sure to come back to this thread and repost it

And when you're wrong....???

Its rare, but i have no problem owning up to it its the fun in making predictions, knowing you might actually be wrong..

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

So Beanie Wells is going to JAX in everyone's next mock draft right.

 

[loose circuits]

I wonder if they'll let Montell Owens get a crack at some carries? He looks tough to tackle.

 

[geoff8695]

MJD will not be a top 5 fantasy back next season...mark it. Their offense sucks, and he'll be beat up if they try to do more with him than they have previous years. This is the second coming of the MBIII situation where the starter leaves and every thinks the specialty back is gonna blow it up and run for 2000 yrds, just craziness. Just like Barber, they will get a back that compliments MJD and use him kinda the same as they did this last year. Expect his production to go down, just due to the Jags as a team. And when Im absolutly right, Ill be sure to come back to this thread and repost it

In PPR MJD was already top 5, and top 9 in non-PPR in '09 despite playing on an offense that "sucks" (3rd straight season of RB1 production - who else has managed that since 2006?). Admittedly this occurred while the Jax offense was a mess, but the oline and offense in general should be much improved in '09 and faces an easier strength of schedule as well. Meanwhile MJD is clearly the best offensive weapon the Jags possess, and they will continue to utilize him and increase his touches - not decrease them. And since he's already managed elite production in his first 3 years, while only averaging 226 touches per season, then it is VERY easy to see plenty of room for improvement rather than a decline in production. If MJD were to receive even a very modest 300 touches per season (less than 19 touches per game) it would mean enough additional fantasy points to easily support top 5 production.Also, the Barber comparison is a poor one. Barber has never had a Fred Taylor caliber RB to compete with for carries in Dallas, yet MJD has soundly outproduced him when comparing their first 3 seasons side by side (and if you include Barber's 4th season then MJD has produced similar career stats in one fewer season!). Furthermore, MJD has proven to be more durable than Barber so far, and unless you are trying to predict injury for MJD, then I don't understand how you can even attempt to make this comparison or expect reduced production going forward.

 

[Wadsworth]

MJD will not be a top 5 fantasy back next season...mark it. Their offense sucks, and he'll be beat up if they try to do more with him than they have previous years. This is the second coming of the MBIII situation where the starter leaves and every thinks the specialty back is gonna blow it up and run for 2000 yrds, just craziness. Just like Barber, they will get a back that compliments MJD and use him kinda the same as they did this last year. Expect his production to go down, just due to the Jags as a team. And when Im absolutly right, Ill be sure to come back to this thread and repost it

In PPR MJD was already top 5, and top 9 in non-PPR in '09 despite playing on an offense that "sucks" (3rd straight season of RB1 production - who else has managed that since 2006?).

Off the top of my head, depending on scoring system obviously LT, Westbrook, MJD and MB III come to mind. You make a good point. In any sort of dynasty/keeper format who would you want off that list?

 

[Jason Wood]

Let's see what the Jags roster looks like after free agency and the draft.

Realistically, there are proxies for other multi-faceted backs who many argued couldn't shoulder the load, but then they did. The two most obvious would be Tiki Barber and Brian Westbrook. Both were valuable fantasy commodities, particularly in PPR leagues, but where thought to not have a realistic shot at being big-time RUSHERS.

Well, we know how that turned out.

I've seen nothing from MJD to suggest he can't shoulder 225-250 carries on top of his lofty reception totals. He's already scoring a ton of TDs and catching a ton of passes, so realistically another 30-50 carries is only going to raise his floor a bit more. It makes him [again, barring anything major by the Jags in FA or the draft] one of the "safer" top picks in the 1st round.

 

[bcr8f]

I wonder if they'll let Montell Owens get a crack at some carries? He looks tough to tackle.

So is

 

[mmmWaffles]

I think Fred Taylor would be a good fit in Houston with the zone-blocking scheme they use.

Well, he'd be a PERFECT replacement for Ahman Green.

 

[Wadsworth]

I wonder if they'll let Montell Owens get a crack at some carries? He looks tough to tackle.

So is

That clip never gets old.

 

[Tau837]

Just playing with MJD's projections...

Just to play devil's advocate...

He caught 61 passes for 555 and 2TDs last year. I don't see any reason this will change.

I see a big reason. Since Del Rio took over as coach, here are the passing attempts by the offense:2003: 5152004: 5132005: 4872006: 4462007: 4692008: 537Unsurprisingly, look at MJD's reception totals in his three seasons:2006: 46 (16 games)2007: 40 (15 games)2008: 61 (16 games)It's not like Taylor just fell off last season, leaving more receptions for MJD. Taylor only had 9 catches in 2007, and had 16 last year.Last year's 426 rushing attempts on offense was by far the lowest since Del Rio took over, and from 2005-2007 they had at least 502 rushing attempts. I'm sure the offensive line injuries, and the resulting dropoff in effectiveness of the running game, had something to do with the shift to more passing.You appear to be saying you think they will continue to pass more often than in the past. Is that what you're saying?I expect ~50 catches, assuming he plays the full season.

He carried 11 times/game and I think that'll bump to a minimum of, say, 17/game.

Are you assuming JAX will not draft or sign another RB to continue sharing the load? I think that is a strong possibility.Let's look at the combined rushing attempts for MJD & Taylor over the past three seasons:2006: 3972007: 3902008: 340During the time they shared the job, neither had more than 231 carries or fewer than 143 carries. You are predicting MJD to get a much greater share than the #2 RB than has happened to date.Now, even if they do add another RB, the best counterpoint to this is that the new RB likely won't be as good as Taylor. Plus, when MJD was a rookie, Taylor was on pace for ~284 carries before he got hurt late in the season, so Del Rio might give MJD a similar split over a rookie this year. Hard to argue with all that, so your 17 carries per game projection could hold.

So roughly 272 carries and 60 receptions - or 21 touches per game and 332 for the season.

This is possible. However, it is interesting to note that this would be a workload he hasn't seen before. Last season, he had 197 rushing attempts, 62 catches, 7 punt returns, and 13 kickoff returns, for a total of 279 touches, his career high. You are predicting about a 20% increase, even if he returns no punts or kickoffs. I'm not saying it won't happen, just pointing out that he hasn't had that much work before. How will it affect his health? How will it affect his effectiveness (e.g., yards per carry, yards per reception, ability to hang onto the ball, goal line effectiveness)?

Ding his TD/carry numbers just a little since he was already getting the short yardage work and add five instead of the seven you'd get with a straightline projection. Which would give him 17 rushing TDs.Putting it all together: 272 for 1200 (~4.4), 60 for 500, 19 total TDs344 FF Pts - or about 22 per game. And it's not hard to imagine 300 carries at 5/pop and a couple more TDs either. Which would be more like 24/game.

In summary, I think your rushing attempts and yards projections are fine, assuming he stays healthy and stops returning kicks. However, I think projecting 17 rushing TDs is way overboard, and your thinking on TDs is likely why MJD will be overranked this year by most people IMO.I'd be more conservative across the board, even assuming he doesn't return kicks and stays healthy:260/1150/11 rushing and 50/425/2 receiving

 

[CentralPA]

(and I chose to keep him over Marshawn Lynch!)

Would you keep him over Frank Gore? That's the situation I am staring at right now.

 

[fantasyplayer]

Just playing with MJD's projections...

Just to play devil's advocate...

He caught 61 passes for 555 and 2TDs last year. I don't see any reason this will change.

I see a big reason. Since Del Rio took over as coach, here are the passing attempts by the offense:2003: 5152004: 5132005: 4872006: 4462007: 4692008: 537Unsurprisingly, look at MJD's reception totals in his three seasons:2006: 46 (16 games)2007: 40 (15 games)2008: 61 (16 games)It's not like Taylor just fell off last season, leaving more receptions for MJD. Taylor only had 9 catches in 2007, and had 16 last year.Last year's 426 rushing attempts on offense was by far the lowest since Del Rio took over, and from 2005-2007 they had at least 502 rushing attempts. I'm sure the offensive line injuries, and the resulting dropoff in effectiveness of the running game, had something to do with the shift to more passing.You appear to be saying you think they will continue to pass more often than in the past. Is that what you're saying?I expect ~50 catches, assuming he plays the full season.

He carried 11 times/game and I think that'll bump to a minimum of, say, 17/game.

Are you assuming JAX will not draft or sign another RB to continue sharing the load? I think that is a strong possibility.Let's look at the combined rushing attempts for MJD & Taylor over the past three seasons:2006: 3972007: 3902008: 340During the time they shared the job, neither had more than 231 carries or fewer than 143 carries. You are predicting MJD to get a much greater share than the #2 RB than has happened to date.Now, even if they do add another RB, the best counterpoint to this is that the new RB likely won't be as good as Taylor. Plus, when MJD was a rookie, Taylor was on pace for ~284 carries before he got hurt late in the season, so Del Rio might give MJD a similar split over a rookie this year. Hard to argue with all that, so your 17 carries per game projection could hold.

So roughly 272 carries and 60 receptions - or 21 touches per game and 332 for the season.

This is possible. However, it is interesting to note that this would be a workload he hasn't seen before. Last season, he had 197 rushing attempts, 62 catches, 7 punt returns, and 13 kickoff returns, for a total of 279 touches, his career high. You are predicting about a 20% increase, even if he returns no punts or kickoffs. I'm not saying it won't happen, just pointing out that he hasn't had that much work before. How will it affect his health? How will it affect his effectiveness (e.g., yards per carry, yards per reception, ability to hang onto the ball, goal line effectiveness)?

Ding his TD/carry numbers just a little since he was already getting the short yardage work and add five instead of the seven you'd get with a straightline projection. Which would give him 17 rushing TDs.Putting it all together: 272 for 1200 (~4.4), 60 for 500, 19 total TDs344 FF Pts - or about 22 per game. And it's not hard to imagine 300 carries at 5/pop and a couple more TDs either. Which would be more like 24/game.

In summary, I think your rushing attempts and yards projections are fine, assuming he stays healthy and stops returning kicks. However, I think projecting 17 rushing TDs is way overboard, and your thinking on TDs is likely why MJD will be overranked this year by most people IMO.I'd be more conservative across the board, even assuming he doesn't return kicks and stays healthy:260/1150/11 rushing and 50/425/2 receiving

I'm really close to those projections, which would've been enough (236 fantasy points) for RB5 in my NON PPR league.

 

[Tau837]

I'd be more conservative across the board, even assuming he doesn't return kicks and stays healthy:260/1150/11 rushing and 50/425/2 receiving

I'm really close to those projections, which would've been enough (236 fantasy points) for RB5 in my NON PPR league.

Sure, but comparing a projection against last season's finish will tend to make a RB's rank look higher, since last season's finish reflected unforeseen injuries and changes in situation, whereas projections do not. To put it another way, I suspect when a similar exercise is performed for all other RBs, more than 4 of them will project higher than these numbers.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

MJD will not be a top 5 fantasy back next season...mark it. Their offense sucks, and he'll be beat up if they try to do more with him than they have previous years. This is the second coming of the MBIII situation where the starter leaves and every thinks the specialty back is gonna blow it up and run for 2000 yrds, just craziness. Just like Barber, they will get a back that compliments MJD and use him kinda the same as they did this last year. Expect his production to go down, just due to the Jags as a team. And when Im absolutly right, Ill be sure to come back to this thread and repost it

What "compliment" RB does MJD need other than one to take carries? MJD can do it all. Great blocker, good hands, good goal line back, and an explosive RB that can take it to the endzone on any play. He doesn't take or make the hits that MB3 does so you can't say he's injury prone. Actually, his size may be perfect for the NFL. Small and compact, rarely takes a hard hit because the guy's always so low. I believe the Jags bring another RB in, but it will probably be to share carries and keep MJD fresh. As stated before, the guy has been top 10 in most leagues all 3 seasons he's played. I can't see how you don't project him for potential top 5 numbers now that he will see the bulk of the carries. What 5 guys would you put ahead of him

 

[Spark026]

There appears to be two clear camps on MJD, and I believe it's likely that many people's opinions are so varied due to their primary scoring format.

If you've played PPR the last 3 years you've almost certainly grown to love MJD or envy the owner that likely got him every year for relatively cheap to his output.

If you play standard, his scoring would have been widely erratic, making him worth even less than what his total pt finish would indicate.

MJD has also been a slow starter the past two years. In fact, he's been near worthless the first 6 weeks of the season. But imo, this always had more to do with Fred Taylor wearing down as the season went on, than MJD's play. Many owner's probably have some disdain after benching him going into his best weeks, after they lost faith in him during the beginning of the season.

There's a lot of reason to both love and hate MJD this past few season.

I think he's very low risk in PPR, and you'd be crazy not to draft him in the top 3. There's actually no reason not to draft him No.1.

However, standard leagues should be a little more skidish. I think he gets a bump but not a large one. I'd feel comfortable drafting him in the 6-8 range, but I think there's safer options for Top 5 picks.

 

[TheFanatic]

MJD will not be a top 5 fantasy back next season...mark it. Their offense sucks, and he'll be beat up if they try to do more with him than they have previous years. This is the second coming of the MBIII situation where the starter leaves and every thinks the specialty back is gonna blow it up and run for 2000 yrds, just craziness. Just like Barber, they will get a back that compliments MJD and use him kinda the same as they did this last year. Expect his production to go down, just due to the Jags as a team. And when Im absolutly right, Ill be sure to come back to this thread and repost it

So their dominant running game takes a nosedive last year with a rash of injuries on the O-Line and now you predict that last year is was a trend and not an anomoly? Hmmmm....Yeah, I think there will be a lot of bumping this thread next year. And how is MBIII a good comparison there? Both he and Felix were injured. What the role is for the two of them is not quite determined is it? At least not to us mere mortals that are not almost always right like you are...Then again you didn't go out on a huge limb. There are 30+ RB's in the league and you predict he won't be top 5. That's a small number to hit. If he is top 5 in PPR's and not in non PPR's are you going to say that you meant non PPR's. What if he finishes 10 points out of top 5. Gonna come in here and thump your chest like you are the all knowing FFB guru?Oh, and as an MJD owner in one league I love guys who do this. Karma is fun sometimes...

 

[Gr00vus]

The one time strenght (OL) sucks got destroyed by injuries.

I fixed that for you. All the other problems the offense had last year can pretty much be attributed to that. Consider that Jones-Drew had a great season despite that situation. Now imagine the Jags offensive line is healthy...

 

[The Riv]

Well, the following was very recently posted on ROTOWORLD:

Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio envisions giving FB Greg Jones 5-10 carries a game next season. Jones will add some power to the backfield with Maurice Jones-Drew, but this won't be a committee. Jones-Drew is expected to "carry the load as both a running back and a receiver," making him a rare every-down feature back.

Any naysayers want to revise their statements? I mean, I know that the proof is in the pudding, but if this report is an accurate harbinger of things to come, MJD owners are going to be happy campers this FF season. Imagine for a moment that the O-line is healthy and there's at least a go-to possession WR.

 

[Devine Intervention]

The point of the comparison was more to compare how people love to over hype somebody when the other half of their RBBC is gone. Like they are going to take on the whole load and be the best thing ever. Just like how i cant say he cant carry the full load, neither can anyone say he can. What next, is Darren Sproles gonna get a full time job and be the next top 5 back....who knows? I just think that some backs are best used as a RBBC and I think he's one of them. And once Jax can get an offense that can actually pass to wrs and maybe even score with them too i think his production goes down. Opinions are allowed arent they??? thought it was the point of a discussion board...

 

[fantasyplayer]

I'd be more conservative across the board, even assuming he doesn't return kicks and stays healthy:260/1150/11 rushing and 50/425/2 receiving

I'm really close to those projections, which would've been enough (236 fantasy points) for RB5 in my NON PPR league.

Sure, but comparing a projection against last season's finish will tend to make a RB's rank look higher, since last season's finish reflected unforeseen injuries and changes in situation, whereas projections do not. To put it another way, I suspect when a similar exercise is performed for all other RBs, more than 4 of them will project higher than these numbers.

In 2006, 236 points would've been good for RB7. In 2007, it would've been good enough for RB3. As I already mentioned, in 2008 that would've been RB5. I expect a modest 20% increase in touches and 15% in total points (mostly because I don't expect his TDs to increase proportionately). If he gets this type of production, the top 5 is very realistic.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

This is bad news for MJD fans. Fred Taylor didn't do much of anything this past year but his name is still worth something.

IMO, they'll get someone to fill Fred's shoes, someone who's name doesn't have the impact to allow MJD to slip into the 2nd round of drafts.

Now, every Tom, **** and Harry will think no Fred Taylor plus MJD equals juicy pick.

He won't do much better if any better than he did this year. In fact, I'd bet money that he doesn't score more TD's next year than he did this year with Fred Taylor on the team.

 

[BLOX]

I like that there is quite a split about MJD's production next year. Anyone look into what he did last year with limited carries?

No brainer here. Top 3 pick in redrafts. AD, Turner, MJD

 

[mozzy84]

I like that there is quite a split about MJD's production next year. Anyone look into what he did last year with limited carries?

No brainer here. Top 3 pick in redrafts. AD, Turner, MJD

I gotta agree with this hereMaurice Jones-Drew-RB-Jaguars Feb. 17 - 1:24 pm et

The Florida Times-Union expects Maurice Jones-Drew to command a new contract worth $8 million annually, with upwards of $20 million guaranteed.

It sounds like MJD will target a deal like Steven Jackson's, which guaranteed $21 million and pays $29.3 million in the first four years. That's more up front money than Marion Barber's seven-year, $45M pact with $16M guaranteed.

 

[mozzy84]

This is bad news for MJD fans. Fred Taylor didn't do much of anything this past year but his name is still worth something.

IMO, they'll get someone to fill Fred's shoes, someone who's name doesn't have the impact to allow MJD to slip into the 2nd round of drafts.

Now, every Tom, **** and Harry will think no Fred Taylor plus MJD equals juicy pick.



He won't do much better if any better than he did this year. In fact, I'd bet money that he doesn't score more TD's next year than he did this year with Fred Taylor on the team.

if he doesnt get off to his typical slow first month he should do alot better imo. No way he gets 7 or less carries in 4 of 5 weeks this coming year. At a minimum he should get around 40-50 more carries next year.

 

[travdogg]

As of now, in a PPR league I would probably take MJD with the #1 overall pick.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Just with a healthy OL and a favorable schedule I'd expect a nice year from him. But throw in feature-back status, and I think top five is certainly realistic. I don't know getting a fat contract will affect him, though, I always see that as a bit of a negative since the player isn't as "hungry" as they would be otherwise.

Regarding Taylor, he could be a change of pace guy for a number of teams. Why not Houston?

 

[teamramrod]

as an MJD owner in a PPR league consider me....

RAISE.....I own MJD and CWWHOOOOOOOOTPeace

 

[gianmarco]

as an MJD owner in a PPR league consider me....

RAISE.....I own MJD and CWWHOOOOOOOOTPeace

CW? Cadillac Williams?

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

as an MJD owner in a PPR league consider me....

RAISE.....I own MJD and CWWHOOOOOOOOTPeace

CW? Cadillac Williams?

I'm guessing Chauncey Washington.

 

[gianmarco]

as an MJD owner in a PPR league consider me....

RAISE.....I own MJD and CWWHOOOOOOOOTPeace

CW? Cadillac Williams?

I'm guessing Chauncey Washington.

I knew who he meant. Just didn't think Chauncey was famous enough yet to start initializing him. He's no FM (Freddie Mitchell).

 

[Tau837]

I'd be more conservative across the board, even assuming he doesn't return kicks and stays healthy:

260/1150/11 rushing and 50/425/2 receiving

I'm really close to those projections, which would've been enough (236 fantasy points) for RB5 in my NON PPR league.

Sure, but comparing a projection against last season's finish will tend to make a RB's rank look higher, since last season's finish reflected unforeseen injuries and changes in situation, whereas projections do not. To put it another way, I suspect when a similar exercise is performed for all other RBs, more than 4 of them will project higher than these numbers.

In 2006, 236 points would've been good for RB7. In 2007, it would've been good enough for RB3. As I already mentioned, in 2008 that would've been RB5. I expect a modest 20% increase in touches and 15% in total points (mostly because I don't expect his TDs to increase proportionately). If he gets this type of production, the top 5 is very realistic.

You missed my point. If you compare any projection for 2009 to actual finishes, it will show a higher position than if you compare it to other 2009 projections. This is because projections do not account for unforeseen injuries or circumstances, but actual finishes do. For example, in 2008, more than 5 RBs were projected for 236+ fantasy points before the season. The fact that RB5 was around 236 points simply reflected the fact that other RBs that suffered those unforeseen injuries/circumstances failed to reach their projected totals. A good example of such circumstances happened to MJD last season - no one projected the OL injuries that JAX suffered.Look at the bolded statement.

 

[Donnybrook]

The NFL is a copycat league.

Two-back systems extend the life of BOTH backs and gives strong 2-back combos the chance for both to succeed.

Fred Taylor and MJD were one of the first duos to benefit in recent memory from this - MJD did well and helped Fred to stay healthy and put up all those 100+ yard games down the stretch in MJD's rookie season.

So Taylor's gone now, so now what? Chauncey Washington is the most likely candidate to take Fred's role - but to a lesser degree. MJD will still see 20 or so chances a game (that's 320 changces, maybe 275 of them as carries) while Chauncy takes on the bulk of the rest (10-15 a game) for a team that would be thrilled to run the ball 30+ times a game.

MJD won't suffer in peformance on a per-carry basis but he could go for 1500-1600 total yards if they don't overuse him. I don't think they will. Jacksonville will just look for a 2006 Fred Taylor in a 2009 version, and that likely starts with Washington. Another RB (or 2) could be added to see if there is a better option in August (especially if Washington doesn't step up in that new role).

He got 4 carries last season. How do you figure they were grooming him for Fred’s role? I would place my bet on a rookie RB or a Derrick Ward signing.

 

[NeverEnough]

I can see MJD staying about the same (which isn't bad obviously) or a slight decline (3-4 spots) I still am not sure if I should keep him or Ronnie Brown.

 

[geoff8695]

I can see MJD staying about the same (which isn't bad obviously) or a slight decline (3-4 spots) I still am not sure if I should keep him or Ronnie Brown.

hmmm let's see....MJD will turn 24 this season, while Brown will be turning 28.

MJD has scored 622.1 fantasy pts. (non-PPR) in 3 seasons, while Ronnie Brown has 608.1 in 4 seasons.

MJD has never missed a game due to injury (although he and Fred Taylor were held out of a meaningless week 17 game in '07 to rest them for the playoffs), while Ronnie Brown has already missed 11 games due to injury in his career.

MJD has finished top 10 in fantasy scoring by a RB in two out of three seasons (and top 10 in all three seasons if you are in a PPR league), while Ronnie Brown has yet to sniff RB1 production, and 2008 was the very 1st time Ronnie has finished inside the top 20.

Doesn't seem like much of a dilemma to me

 

[Tanner9919]

MJD will not be a top 5 fantasy back next season...mark it. Their offense sucks, and he'll be beat up if they try to do more with him than they have previous years. This is the second coming of the MBIII situation where the starter leaves and every thinks the specialty back is gonna blow it up and run for 2000 yrds, just craziness. Just like Barber, they will get a back that compliments MJD and use him kinda the same as they did this last year. Expect his production to go down, just due to the Jags as a team. And when Im absolutly right, Ill be sure to come back to this thread and repost it

MJD is good, but not top 5 good..as for Fred Taylor, I could see him landing with Tom Coughlin and the Giants , if/when Derrick Ward leaves town..

 

[Horses Mouth]

I can see MJD staying about the same (which isn't bad obviously) or a slight decline (3-4 spots) I still am not sure if I should keep him or Ronnie Brown.

I'm a MIA homer and Brown owner but MJD >>>> Brown at this point FF-wise.

 

[fantasyplayer]

MJD will not be a top 5 fantasy back next season...mark it. Their offense sucks, and he'll be beat up if they try to do more with him than they have previous years. This is the second coming of the MBIII situation where the starter leaves and every thinks the specialty back is gonna blow it up and run for 2000 yrds, just craziness. Just like Barber, they will get a back that compliments MJD and use him kinda the same as they did this last year. Expect his production to go down, just due to the Jags as a team. And when Im absolutly right, Ill be sure to come back to this thread and repost it

MJD is good, but not top 5 good..

as for Fred Taylor, I could see him landing with Tom Coughlin and the Giants , if/when Derrick Ward leaves town..

I don't get how people can be so certain of this. He's been a Top 10 RB (PPR) all three of his NFL seasons. His borderline hall of fame backfield mate is released, and people are 100% certain he won't improve to the Top 5. I'm not saying he definitely will, but to say that he definitely won't/can't doesn't make sense to me.