@travdoggInteresting comments, appreciate the feedback. Here is how I feel about each of these situations, and how they were applied in my projections:
Initially, I kind of agreed with this in spirit. I have Atlanta slightly slower in pace, and it is easy to expect Arthur Smith to want to pound the rock after what he did in Tennessee. But I think that the Falcons will, in all likelihood, still have to throw the ball a decent amount. They have a low win total, and all of the offensive personnel would dictate that they would be best trying to score through the air. In particular, I think it becomes rather difficult to justify keeping Ryan and not spending the fourth pick on a QB if you aren't going to try to maximize Ryan. Smith's passing attacks have also been pretty concentrated, so I think they will feed Ridley/Julio/Pitts a great deal, and the ancillary targets (Gage, Hurst) will suffer.
Big change in offensive coordinator and philosophy coming I think here. Pittsburgh drafted a RB early, and also worked on the OL a little. My expectation is a higher run rate than we've seen the last couple of seasons BUT maybe some more vertical passing if Ben can get it there. We saw last year that even with all of the volume in the world, these WRs struggled for consistent production. I don't mind being a little bearish here, though I still come out slightly ahead of the pack on JuJu.
I could see this one resolving itself before the off-season is over. Denver can save a bunch against the cap by trading Gordon. If he's there in September though, it is difficult to see this not being a somewhat messy committee. Maybe I should move their rush shares a little closer (46% and 36% for me respectively) with the idea in mind that Williams gets more work as the year goes on. I'll take another look at that. I do think that Williams' potential pass-game usage is up in the air though, as Gordon has years of pass-catching experience in the league already, and Williams lost a ton to a fourth-round pick in Carter.
I agree with this and my projections reflect it. I do still like White in PPR because of the pass-catching, but it is worth noting that my projections are bullish on Mac Jones starts and opportunity, and the more Cam we get, the lower it would push White.
Agree here as well, though I think the comp is more a fit with what Lombardi did in Detroit as the OC. Tons of RB passing, though perhaps a true committee in terms of RB rush attempts. I have Ekeler projected RB8. Allen I can see playing more of a Golden Tate-type of role here (those Tate years were very good tho!). The Chargers have a way better supporting cast than what would allow the full MT treatment imo.
There are a couple of notable pitt-falls for Sanders imo. For starters, I would expect Hurts to command a good share of rush attempts, which shrinks the pie overall. We've also seen Nick Siriani split up the RB touches a ton. I think there will be somewhat of a rotation, even if Sanders is the lead. The Gainwell pick in particular intrigues me, because I do like him as a prospect. Assuming at least one each of Scott/Gainwell and Howard/Kerryon are weekly actives, Sanders is tricky for me.
I think we often over-state consistency, especially since Lockett and Metcalf were less than 10 FPs apart last year. From a projections standpoint, it makes sense to me that they are close. This is a concentrated pass game on those two guys. Seattle is also not projected to be as good as they have been in years past (win total of 9.5), so Russ may have to still do some cooking.
Looking at the usage last year in games with AB, Brady didn't seem to have trouble getting the ball to each of his main weapons. Godwin could be frustrating week-to-week, but I am bullish on all three of these guys. Have Evans/Godwin/AB for target shares of 21/18/20 right now, which seems fair. The real reason I have them all projected fairly highly is the pass volume, which went WAY up down the stretch last year. I'm expecting that to continue, though I suppose there are a few reasons to think they may play it safe early on.
In common games last year, Jefferson out-targeted Thielen by a good clip. I have them decently close in target share (24 and 22%), but Jefferson is far more efficient. Irv I only gave a 13% target share to, I'm not sure just how much more usage he sees even though Rudolph is gone, since he was already on the field a good bit himself. Still a top-20 guy though for me, and certainly upside for more.
I think the biggest thing with Higbee is that Everett being gone pretty much guarantees his snap share being the highest we've seen. If he's on the field with Stafford at QB, it is difficult to not see him producing at least a little imo. We know the top two guys there are going to get fed, and I would see the Reynolds workload being somewhat split between Van/DJax/Atwell. The backups at TE are basically nobodies, this is going to remain an 11 offense with some 10 looks imo. TE12 (his projection for me) is also not as nice as it looks. He is a mere 14 points ahead of my TE18, which would be more in-line with your expectations. So I think we may actually agree here more than the positional ranking would suggest.
Thanks for this, it is always good to look back at my work and think again about how I arrived at certain player projections!
Good stuff in here.
