Funk's Top 24 Rookies 2008 (1 Viewer)

[coolnerd]

It's rare that you have a player who's a perfect mirror image of a current NFL player. So typically what you do is you throw out a couple names of comparable players to give the readers an overall picture of what to expect from a given prospect. You could say Frank Gore and Ryan Moats represent the range of Ray Rice's potential in the NFL. I think most people understand the comparisons and find them helpful. I'm sorry if you don't.

Enjoy your fantasy football team by drafting Ryan Moats 5th overall.

Don't get this? Now I understand why others come on here and give me a hard time.Or anyone else doing rankings.Why because it comes from the top.EBF may be wrong in saying a player is like player 'X'.Can we get over it. Stewart is more like Dayne than Fred Taylor or Ricky Williams.But we get the point, thats what EBF thinks and its why EBF has Stewart so high. Moats at 1.05, I'm sure there was leagues were that happen.Case in point how many picked Drew at 1.05 or even in the first round His rookie year?Again EBF Great job.

If you post rankings you are putting yourself out there for both the approval and questioning. It is just the process. For me, I pay the most attention why than the actual rankings. EBF always displays clear reasoning and is worth the read even when I disagree.

 

[FUBAR]

It's rare that you have a player who's a perfect mirror image of a current NFL player. So typically what you do is you throw out a couple names of comparable players to give the readers an overall picture of what to expect from a given prospect. You could say Frank Gore and Ryan Moats represent the range of Ray Rice's potential in the NFL.

I think most people understand the comparisons and find them helpful. I'm sorry if you don't.

Enjoy your fantasy football team by drafting Ryan Moats 5th overall.

Don't get this? Now I understand why others come on here and give me a hard time.Or anyone else doing rankings.

Why because it comes from the top.

EBF may be wrong in saying a player is like player 'X'.

Can we get over it. Stewart is more like Dayne than Fred Taylor or Ricky Williams.

But we get the point, thats what EBF thinks and its why EBF has Stewart so high.

Moats at 1.05, I'm sure there was leagues were that happen.

Case in point how many picked Drew at 1.05 or even in the first round His rookie year?

Again EBF Great job.

If you post rankings you are putting yourself out there for both the approval and questioning. It is just the process. For me, I pay the most attention why than the actual rankings. EBF always displays clear reasoning and is worth the read even when I disagree.

exactly. I don't really care if you have Felix Jones #4 or #10, but I want to know what caused you to put him there. I don't agree with most of EBF's rankings, but I really appreciate his reasoning. Discussion, even if it comes off as attacks, just makes us all more knowledgeable.

 

[Team Legacy]

So while I'm tipping my hand to my leaguemates here, I don't really care.

And we thank you!First off, EBF, is one of the PREMIER rookie scouts on this board. I've tracked his "hot picks" over the years and while he takes some chances, his threads always cause me to re-evaluate, and this list is NO different. I for one am a big fan of the player comparisons.

I recently traded Marshawn Lynch away for one of these top 3 mainly because I see Mendenhall and Stewart as BOTH more talented than Lynch. Do you agree with that assessment? (not the trade) Also,

4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

Positives: Fluid runner with a strong build. Good shiftiness to get separation before the catch and make plays after the catch. Explosive athlete. Strong player. Versatile receiver who can make catches all over the field. Plays with fire. Quietly had a dominant season in which he averaged almost 100 yards per game in a BCS conference.

Negatives: Not a great deep ball receiver. More of an intermediate target who can get deep than a true deep threat.

NFL Comparison: Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe

Overall: Thomas had been flying under the radar before his stellar showing at the combine. Not anymore. He will be a top 15-30 pick in April and he should eventually become one of the better skill players to emerge from this class.

I am real interested in more in depth analysis about this guy. Seems to be some big time buzz with this kid. AWESOME JOB BRO!

 

[EBF]

Great stuff!!Slaton has been in a free fall, any chance he moves into top 15-20 range if he is taken in the 3rd-4th RD and lands in a favorable situation?Say Sand Diego or Denver?

Slaton will get drafted and make a team. He is an explosive player. However, I just don't think he runs with enough power to be a starter at the next level. Obviously I'd have to take a harder look if he landed on a team with no long-term starter, but I think it's best to view him as a backup/RBBC type.

 

[FUBAR]

So while I'm tipping my hand to my leaguemates here, I don't really care.

And we thank you!First off, EBF, is one of the PREMIER rookie scouts on this board. I've tracked his "hot picks" over the years and while he takes some chances, his threads always cause me to re-evaluate, and this list is NO different. I for one am a big fan of the player comparisons.

I recently traded Marshawn Lynch away for one of these top 3 mainly because I see Mendenhall and Stewart as BOTH more talented than Lynch. Do you agree with that assessment? (not the trade) Also,

4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

Positives: Fluid runner with a strong build. Good shiftiness to get separation before the catch and make plays after the catch. Explosive athlete. Strong player. Versatile receiver who can make catches all over the field. Plays with fire. Quietly had a dominant season in which he averaged almost 100 yards per game in a BCS conference.

Negatives: Not a great deep ball receiver. More of an intermediate target who can get deep than a true deep threat.

NFL Comparison: Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe

Overall: Thomas had been flying under the radar before his stellar showing at the combine. Not anymore. He will be a top 15-30 pick in April and he should eventually become one of the better skill players to emerge from this class.

I am real interested in more in depth analysis about this guy. Seems to be some big time buzz with this kid. AWESOME JOB BRO!

I'm not EBF, but I passed on an offer of Lynch for my 1.02 awhile back, so basically I agree. Although I'm pretty sure I'm taking Mendenhall. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Thomas as similar to Greg Jennings.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

So while I'm tipping my hand to my leaguemates here, I don't really care.

And we thank you!First off, EBF, is one of the PREMIER rookie scouts on this board. I've tracked his "hot picks" over the years and while he takes some chances, his threads always cause me to re-evaluate, and this list is NO different. I for one am a big fan of the player comparisons.

I recently traded Marshawn Lynch away for one of these top 3 mainly because I see Mendenhall and Stewart as BOTH more talented than Lynch. Do you agree with that assessment? (not the trade) Also,

4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

Positives: Fluid runner with a strong build. Good shiftiness to get separation before the catch and make plays after the catch. Explosive athlete. Strong player. Versatile receiver who can make catches all over the field. Plays with fire. Quietly had a dominant season in which he averaged almost 100 yards per game in a BCS conference.

Negatives: Not a great deep ball receiver. More of an intermediate target who can get deep than a true deep threat.

NFL Comparison: Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe

Overall: Thomas had been flying under the radar before his stellar showing at the combine. Not anymore. He will be a top 15-30 pick in April and he should eventually become one of the better skill players to emerge from this class.

I am real interested in more in depth analysis about this guy. Seems to be some big time buzz with this kid. AWESOME JOB BRO!

I'm not EBF, but I passed on an offer of Lynch for my 1.02 awhile back, so basically I agree. Although I'm pretty sure I'm taking Mendenhall. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Thomas as similar to Greg Jennings.

1.02 Devin Thomas, Interesting.

 

[EBF]

I recently traded Marshawn Lynch away for one of these top 3 mainly because I see Mendenhall and Stewart as BOTH more talented than Lynch. Do you agree with that assessment?

It's pretty close, but I would probably prefer Lynch since I think he's less of a risk. I knew when he was coming out that he would be a pretty solid pro. That said, Mendenhall and Stewart are in the same general ballpark and they both have the potential to be just as good as Lynch or better.

I am real interested in more in depth analysis about this guy. Seems to be some big time buzz with this kid.

AWESOME JOB BRO!

I don't have a lot to add to the above. He is a good overall receiver with a combination of size, speed, and skills that makes you think he can be a WR1 for his NFL team. I think Hines Ward is the best comparison in terms of talent level. Like Ward, Thomas will never be a truly dominant receiver, but he should become a valuable FF commodity and a solid FF WR2. Some of the knocks I've read against him are that he doesn't play to his timed speed and that he isn't a great deep ball receiver. I'll buy that, but I think he can make a living on the short and medium stuff like Bowe and Ward. That's the type of player I expect him to become. Maybe not quite as physical as those guys, but faster. There are some highlights here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHbkz0IMIeA

and here:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7604700

 

[EBF]

Thanks for posting this...I respect your opinion as much as any in the Shark Pool. I'm going to have to disagree with you on Felix Jones, however. I don't think you give him the credit he deserves, and I would definitely choose him over any of the WR.

You might be right. Certainly when you look at draft pedigree and combine numbers he's a pretty strong overall prospect. I was tempted at times to move him into the top 3, but there's something about his game that gives me pause. I think I needed to see more hard running out of him in order to consider him a no-brainer future NFL starter. As it stands now I think there's some backup risk with him. He certainly has the potential to outperform my ranking, but I think where I have him is fair for a PPR league. Thomas, Kelly, and Hardy are all first round talents who project as possible number one receivers in the NFL. That has a lot of value in PPR.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

I recently traded Marshawn Lynch away for one of these top 3 mainly because I see Mendenhall and Stewart as BOTH more talented than Lynch. Do you agree with that assessment?

It's pretty close, but I would probably prefer Lynch since I think he's less of a risk. I knew when he was coming out that he would be a pretty solid pro. That said, Mendenhall and Stewart are in the same general ballpark and they both have the potential to be just as good as Lynch or better.

I am real interested in more in depth analysis about this guy. Seems to be some big time buzz with this kid.

AWESOME JOB BRO!

I don't have a lot to add to the above. He is a good overall receiver with a combination of size, speed, and skills that makes you think he can be a WR1 for his NFL team. I think Hines Ward is the best comparison in terms of talent level. Like Ward, Thomas will never be a truly dominant receiver, but he should become a valuable FF commodity and a solid FF WR2. Some of the knocks I've read against him are that he doesn't play to his timed speed and that he isn't a great deep ball receiver. I'll buy that, but I think he can make a living on the short and medium stuff like Bowe and Ward. That's the type of player I expect him to become. Maybe not quite as physical as those guys, but faster. There are some highlights here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHbkz0IMIeA

and here:

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7604700

Great job as always.Agree on Kelly, when did Kelly become your #1 WR?

Agree with Sweed, when did you move Sweed down?

Would you take McFadden over Lynch?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

It's rare that you have a player who's a perfect mirror image of a current NFL player. So typically what you do is you throw out a couple names of comparable players to give the readers an overall picture of what to expect from a given prospect. You could say Frank Gore and Ryan Moats represent the range of Ray Rice's potential in the NFL.

I think most people understand the comparisons and find them helpful. I'm sorry if you don't.

Enjoy your fantasy football team by drafting Ryan Moats 5th overall.

never have I heard EBF say he'd take a Moats anywhere near 1.5---I've drafted w/the young man, as I have w/over 150 FBG's in what will be 15-14 team dynasty leagues alittle later this spring...

no one...and I mean NO ONE, refrains from chasing plunging value the way EBF stands down to positional runs

if he views a RB as a late 3rd/early 4th talent and there are next to none left on the board @ his spot late in the 2nd, he sticks to his board, almost to a fault, and drafts accordingly

I've been guilty, as many of us have, at leaping after a guy cuz the tier is about empty---not the Funk-meister

so, enough

nice job, EBF...as a fellow league mate, I appreciate the amount of work you've obviously done in putting this ranking together

So we get to gloss over the inconsistency in the player comparisons?I could care less about his rankings and any criticism therein - it was the player comparisons I took issue with - that was the point. EBF puts out player comparisons that I disagree with and I don't agree with his reasoning (saying Ryan Moats is the player that compares well with Ray Rice, and then stating with Royal that Coles is a good comparison - yet giving two different reasons for each - Moats for style / physical traits, Coles for Fantasy Football comparisons).

Excuse me for asking his reasoning for player comparison - but would anyone else have guessed that the reasoning was different for each? Would you expect that from a list?

I'd have expected consistency.

Anyone who puts out a list should expect feedback and questions. That's part of the deal. Believe me, I know that.

I still agreed with other parts of what EBF said and that he should continue to voice his opinions.

No one should be silenced on either side - the listmaker or the questioner.

:awaitsJP's-top24:

You know that won't be coming until after the NFL Draft. I've said on numerous occasions that I don't watch enough college ball to make those deep of a lists just on college talent. I'll make mine in May.

 

[EBF]

You seem to be out of the Funk. Great job as always.Agree on Kelly, when did Kelly become your #1 WR?Agree with Sweed, when did you move Sweed down?Missed on Stewart, but it's only time. My guess 6 weeks from now Stewart will not be in your top 5.Again Great Job.

Kelly had been my #1 WR for a while, but I recently bumped Thomas up one spot above him. Kelly, Thomas, and Hardy are all in the same tier, which means I think they're comparable from a value standpoint. I wouldn't say any of them is a lock for success, but they're all solid gambles once the elite runners are off the board. Sweed has never been high on my board. I think people are getting carried away with the size, hands, and speed without looking at some of the negatives. He is not explosive and was not a true star in college. Of course, every year there are a couple guys I whiff completely on. Sweed could be one of those guys. He may warrant consideration 5-10 spots higher than where I have him.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

It's rare that you have a player who's a perfect mirror image of a current NFL player. So typically what you do is you throw out a couple names of comparable players to give the readers an overall picture of what to expect from a given prospect. You could say Frank Gore and Ryan Moats represent the range of Ray Rice's potential in the NFL.

I think most people understand the comparisons and find them helpful. I'm sorry if you don't.

Enjoy your fantasy football team by drafting Ryan Moats 5th overall.

never have I heard EBF say he'd take a Moats anywhere near 1.5---I've drafted w/the young man, as I have w/over 150 FBG's in what will be 15-14 team dynasty leagues alittle later this spring...

no one...and I mean NO ONE, refrains from chasing plunging value the way EBF stands down to positional runs

if he views a RB as a late 3rd/early 4th talent and there are next to none left on the board @ his spot late in the 2nd, he sticks to his board, almost to a fault, and drafts accordingly

I've been guilty, as many of us have, at leaping after a guy cuz the tier is about empty---not the Funk-meister

so, enough

nice job, EBF...as a fellow league mate, I appreciate the amount of work you've obviously done in putting this ranking together

So we get to gloss over the inconsistency in the player comparisons?I could care less about his rankings and any criticism therein - it was the player comparisons I took issue with - that was the point. EBF puts out player comparisons that I disagree with and I don't agree with his reasoning (saying Ryan Moats is the player that compares well with Ray Rice, and then stating with Royal that Coles is a good comparison - yet giving two different reasons for each - Moats for style / physical traits, Coles for Fantasy Football comparisons).

Excuse me for asking his reasoning for player comparison - but would anyone else have guessed that the reasoning was different for each? Would you expect that from a list?

I'd have expected consistency.

Anyone who puts out a list should expect feedback and questions. That's part of the deal. Believe me, I know that.

I still agreed with other parts of what EBF said and that he should continue to voice his opinions.

No one should be silenced on either side - the listmaker or the questioner.

:awaitsJP's-top24:

You know that won't be coming until after the NFL Draft. I've said on numerous occasions that I don't watch enough college ball to make those deep of a lists just on college talent. I'll make mine in May.

So were do you have Kelly and Sweed ranked?

 

[EBF]

Would you take McFadden over Lynch?

No. Lynch is a solid player. He's not a world beater and he'll probably never be a true star, but he's a low risk commodity.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

You seem to be out of the Funk. Great job as always.Agree on Kelly, when did Kelly become your #1 WR?Agree with Sweed, when did you move Sweed down?Missed on Stewart, but it's only time. My guess 6 weeks from now Stewart will not be in your top 5.Again Great Job.

Kelly had been my #1 WR for a while, but I recently bumped Thomas up one spot above him. Kelly, Thomas, and Hardy are all in the same tier, which means I think they're comparable from a value standpoint. I wouldn't say any of them is a lock for success, but they're all solid gambles once the elite runners are off the board. Sweed has never been high on my board. I think people are getting carried away with the size, hands, and speed without looking at some of the negatives. He is not explosive and was not a true star in college. Of course, every year there are a couple guys I whiff completely on. Sweed could be one of those guys. He may warrant consideration 5-10 spots higher than where I have him.

Thanks.

 

[Golden Mike Tomczak]

Good synopsis here.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

:awaitsJP's-top24:

You know that won't be coming until after the NFL Draft. I've said on numerous occasions that I don't watch enough college ball to make those deep of a lists just on college talent. I'll make mine in May.

So were do you have Kelly and Sweed ranked?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

So we get to gloss over the inconsistency in the player comparisons?I could care less about his rankings and any criticism therein - it was the player comparisons I took issue with - that was the point. EBF puts out player comparisons that I disagree with and I don't agree with his reasoning (saying Ryan Moats is the player that compares well with Ray Rice, and then stating with Royal that Coles is a good comparison - yet giving two different reasons for each - Moats for style / physical traits, Coles for Fantasy Football comparisons).Excuse me for asking his reasoning for player comparison - but would anyone else have guessed that the reasoning was different for each? Would you expect that from a list?I'd have expected consistency.Anyone who puts out a list should expect feedback and questions. That's part of the deal. Believe me, I know that.I still agreed with other parts of what EBF said and that he should continue to voice his opinions. No one should be silenced on either side - the listmaker or the questioner.

I doubt that anyone has an issue with you pushing EBF to defend his comparisons. Rather, I presume that others were chafing at the tone you used - it felt more HK-ish than Pasquino-esque. EBF - great stuff. Is Devin Thomas a good enough route runner to compare with H Ward and Boldin? I ask because it seems both those WRs benefit from very strong route running + ability to get off the line + reliable hands. Does that fit Thomas? I haven't watched enough of him to know.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

You seem to be out of the Funk. Great job as always.Agree on Kelly, when did Kelly become your #1 WR?Agree with Sweed, when did you move Sweed down?Missed on Stewart, but it's only time. My guess 6 weeks from now Stewart will not be in your top 5.Again Great Job.

Kelly had been my #1 WR for a while, but I recently bumped Thomas up one spot above him. Kelly, Thomas, and Hardy are all in the same tier, which means I think they're comparable from a value standpoint. I wouldn't say any of them is a lock for success, but they're all solid gambles once the elite runners are off the board. Sweed has never been high on my board. I think people are getting carried away with the size, hands, and speed without looking at some of the negatives. He is not explosive and was not a true star in college. Of course, every year there are a couple guys I whiff completely on. Sweed could be one of those guys. He may warrant consideration 5-10 spots higher than where I have him.

Sorry, Jeff Pasquino. Some times I ask too hard a question.So were do you have Kelly and Sweed ranked?Do you agree with EBF?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

:awaitsJP's-top24:

You know that won't be coming until after the NFL Draft. I've said on numerous occasions that I don't watch enough college ball to make those deep of a lists just on college talent. I'll make mine in May.

So were do you have Kelly and Sweed ranked?

I thought that you might re-read my statement above and understand - I guess not.

I've said on numerous occasions that I don't watch enough college ball to make those deep of a lists just on college talent. I'll make mine in May.

 

[EBF]

EBF - great stuff. Is Devin Thomas a good enough route runner to compare with H Ward and Boldin? I ask because it seems both those WRs benefit from very strong route running + ability to get off the line + reliable hands. Does that fit Thomas? I haven't watched enough of him to know.

He isn't quite as physical as either of those two guys, but he's faster. He won't brutalize tacklers like Boldin sometimes does, but he's a dangerous runner after the catch due to his combination of speed, quickness, and strength. I think he's definitely a good route runner. There's not much stiffness to his game. He can make hard cuts and is quick out of his breaks.

 

[Orgazmo]

So we get to gloss over the inconsistency in the player comparisons?

I simply saw the Moats and Gore comparisons in regards to their physique. Short, thick-legged, good center of gravity - usually good traits for an NFL back. I think throwing Moats in is also a good reminder that it isn't enough to look the part, and if you draft Rice, its with fair warning.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

:awaitsJP's-top24:

You know that won't be coming until after the NFL Draft. I've said on numerous occasions that I don't watch enough college ball to make those deep of a lists just on college talent. I'll make mine in May.

So were do you have Kelly and Sweed ranked?

:whoosh:

I thought that you might re-read my statement above and understand - I guess not.

I've said on numerous occasions that I don't watch enough college ball to make those deep of a lists just on college talent. I'll make mine in May.

So you go on were a player is drafted? So anyone taken in the 1st round is good.Anyone picked in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft is not as good?

Surprised thats all, shocked . Just surprised.

I would think you would have some rankings. Ok May it is.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

So we get to gloss over the inconsistency in the player comparisons?

I simply saw the Moats and Gore comparisons in regards to their physique. Short, thick-legged, good center of gravity - usually good traits for an NFL back. I think throwing Moats in is also a good reminder that it isn't enough to look the part, and if you draft Rice, its with fair warning.

In a word 'Bingo'Thats how I took it.

 

[FUBAR]

So while I'm tipping my hand to my leaguemates here, I don't really care.

And we thank you!First off, EBF, is one of the PREMIER rookie scouts on this board. I've tracked his "hot picks" over the years and while he takes some chances, his threads always cause me to re-evaluate, and this list is NO different. I for one am a big fan of the player comparisons.

I recently traded Marshawn Lynch away for one of these top 3 mainly because I see Mendenhall and Stewart as BOTH more talented than Lynch. Do you agree with that assessment? (not the trade) Also,

4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

Positives: Fluid runner with a strong build. Good shiftiness to get separation before the catch and make plays after the catch. Explosive athlete. Strong player. Versatile receiver who can make catches all over the field. Plays with fire. Quietly had a dominant season in which he averaged almost 100 yards per game in a BCS conference.

Negatives: Not a great deep ball receiver. More of an intermediate target who can get deep than a true deep threat.

NFL Comparison: Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe

Overall: Thomas had been flying under the radar before his stellar showing at the combine. Not anymore. He will be a top 15-30 pick in April and he should eventually become one of the better skill players to emerge from this class.

I am real interested in more in depth analysis about this guy. Seems to be some big time buzz with this kid. AWESOME JOB BRO!

I'm not EBF, but I passed on an offer of Lynch for my 1.02 awhile back, so basically I agree. Although I'm pretty sure I'm taking Mendenhall. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Thomas as similar to Greg Jennings.

1.02 Devin Thomas, Interesting. :whoosh:

There are times when you make sense. Rare, but they're there.

This isn't one of them.

 

[FUBAR]

So we get to gloss over the inconsistency in the player comparisons?

I simply saw the Moats and Gore comparisons in regards to their physique. Short, thick-legged, good center of gravity - usually good traits for an NFL back. I think throwing Moats in is also a good reminder that it isn't enough to look the part, and if you draft Rice, its with fair warning.

In a word 'Bingo'Thats how I took it.

great, but you can pretty much say that for any player.Rice has been productive, what don't you like?

 

[Maroney=Speed]

So while I'm tipping my hand to my leaguemates here, I don't really care.

And we thank you!First off, EBF, is one of the PREMIER rookie scouts on this board. I've tracked his "hot picks" over the years and while he takes some chances, his threads always cause me to re-evaluate, and this list is NO different. I for one am a big fan of the player comparisons.

I recently traded Marshawn Lynch away for one of these top 3 mainly because I see Mendenhall and Stewart as BOTH more talented than Lynch. Do you agree with that assessment? (not the trade) Also,

4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

Positives: Fluid runner with a strong build. Good shiftiness to get separation before the catch and make plays after the catch. Explosive athlete. Strong player. Versatile receiver who can make catches all over the field. Plays with fire. Quietly had a dominant season in which he averaged almost 100 yards per game in a BCS conference.

Negatives: Not a great deep ball receiver. More of an intermediate target who can get deep than a true deep threat.

NFL Comparison: Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe

Overall: Thomas had been flying under the radar before his stellar showing at the combine. Not anymore. He will be a top 15-30 pick in April and he should eventually become one of the better skill players to emerge from this class.

I am real interested in more in depth analysis about this guy. Seems to be some big time buzz with this kid. AWESOME JOB BRO!

I'm not EBF, but I passed on an offer of Lynch for my 1.02 awhile back, so basically I agree. Although I'm pretty sure I'm taking Mendenhall. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Thomas as similar to Greg Jennings.

1.02 Devin Thomas, Interesting. :whoosh:

There are times when you make sense. Rare, but they're there.

This isn't one of them.

You said ' I'm not EBF, but I passed on an offer of Lynch for my 1.02 awhile back'. 'Although I'm pretty sure I'm taking Mendenhall'.Under Devin Thomas, so one would think you are high on DT. No?

If No what did you mean?

 

[Rodeojones]

Great stuff EBF. I have been saying for a while, you should get paid for this.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Some thoughts on the first three tiers.

Tier One

1. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

3. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

These three have been discussed at length and we continue to have them reversed in what is now a little boring for me. The rest of this class has become more interesting. Three top shelf prospects in my mind. I would likely trade LJ for any of them after the draft, if that explains how much I like them. So think about that with pick #3, my friend. I mean, ya know, just in case by some oddity you get stuck with that bambi legged guy. Stewart had surpassed Mendenhall, with me, mostly based on listening to others around here. When he came out of high school I pimped him heavily at another site, and he let me down for two and a half of the three years he played. So familiarity breeding a little negativity is strong here. Mostly it was the constant injury trouble. Broke an ankle in high school. Sprained one early as a freshman. Sprained both as a sophomore. Hurt his shoulder early last season then fought through turf toe all year. And I know I'm missing at least one other aggravating little ding. In struggling to pick favorites here, this weighs heavily on me. I'll make my case best as I can sometime before the draft, for posterity if nothing else.

Tier Two

4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

5. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers

6. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

7. James Hardy, WR, Indiana

This made me wish for the non-ppr rankings. My mind doesn't do ppr very well. So, I have to separate them by position here. Clearly you like Rice a lot. PPR actually downgrades his FF scoring prospects among some of these other backs, yet he holds steady here, I'm guessing based on him being a tier of his own at RB4. I can't argue with that, but I thought it really stood out in this format with these tiers. Any prospect can flame out in the NFL, but with Rice it is a little harder to imagine than with the others. Solid ceiling, maybe not the highest, but solid. Higher floor. coolnerd, the Spartans thought for sure they found their route running, good hands and possession talent in snatching Devin from Juco ranks. They were pleasantly surprised by the power, agility, long speed, yac ability and return skills. He does stand out a little in an unclear crop. I originally placed him where EBF has him among WRs, but slowly I'm picking up a Chad Jackson thing with him and a Marshall, Colston, Burress thing with the others. I'm nearly consigned to saying just pick your favorite and hope for the best, because no amount of detailed analysis seems to separate these kids to me. I would put Manningham in this tier considering I think he has as good a shot at WR1 production. Desean may nudge his way into this tier for me.

I've defended Sweed a little more than most and persistently ranked him above Kelly. That's just because I'm impressed with Sweed's intangibles (very very) very much, and not so impressed with Kelly's. Kelly is a little mysterious this off-season and that bugs me especially with squirrelly WRs, but on the drop of a good 40 and some positive buzz about work ethic or personality stuff from the scouts, he quickly shoots up my board. I'm partially hoping all the news is good and he falls to me with a near elite grade at pick 10. I say partially because I still anticipate taking an RB at 1.10 in non ppr. This Thomas, Kelly, Hardy tier is probably right on the money. I just have issues with two of them (Devin and Malcolm) where I don't with some others. Those issues can and probably will be cleared up in the next few weeks.

Tier Three

8. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

9. Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida

10. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

11. Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech

12. Desean Jackson, WR, California

Again, I see an RB in a tier of his own. I think that's a significant statement for Felix. I wish I was so sold. Here's a little secret that flies in the face of prevailing opinion. Felix is not a great receiver. A Tatum Bell comp may be the best one. He has a hard time adjusting to balls with any arch on them, he's a little wood-handed, and he was pulled from punt return duty over these issues (in practice). He played with an awful QB, and the assumption that he's a great receiver has no substance behind it. There's no evidence in his 16 receptions. I have a laundry list of items that have him at RB10 on my list, and he'd drop another notch in PPR with me. I know a lot of typing has been invested in claiming Felix is a great 3rd down receiving back (by other posters, not EBF) and I expect some to want to roll the eyes and be upset with my comments. Just know you're not necessarily arguing with me, but with the Arkansas coaching staff. That's where I picked up these comments after some serious digging and seeing him drop a few catchable balls while looking very stiff in the process. I like these backs more than most, and I love the Portis compare here for the upper limit of his ceiling. But that's a longshot, and I see a lower floor with Felix than others. If you like the risk reward ratio of boom or bust drafting, than shoot for this kid at 1.04 like so many already are. Tatum Bell is not as bad as many think. I'm not feeling the Eddie Royal love. He was the 3rd leading receiver at VT. Now he's sixth in this class? I know he too played with a struggling QB, but he should have been better than 3rd on the team if he was up to this ranking. His Senior Bowl certainly turned some heads and the workout warrior triangle numbers are reminiscent of Galloway, but in the end I see a kick returner, very raw, who's had an impressive post season run to the draft. While a great athlete who can go the distance with any touch, I just don't see a serious football talent. I expect him to get lost on special teams. Desean has better hands, routes, and speed.

Other than that these WRs are too difficult to separate to complain much about rankings.

 

[Thorpe]

Great post, EBF. I agree with a lot of what you've put down. I will say, though, I'm astonished how high you have Devin Thomas. I will definitely have to go back and see if I'm missing something. I do find it interesting that the guys you compare him to aren't world-beaters, but compare Hardy and Kelly to considerably better WR's, yet still prefer him that high.

One thing to consider is that Thomas was working with what I consider a very poor QB last year in Hoyer.

Hoyer had a couple of bad games last year but he was an above average QB overall. If anything he locked on to Thomas which can only help Thomas's stats.

 

[Maroney=Speed]

Stewart had surpassed Mendenhall, with me, mostly based on listening to others around here.

My only question is why are you not listening to Mr.Faulk?

1. McFadden

2. Mendenhall

3. Mike Hart

4. Justin Forsett

5. Matt Forte

6. Jonathan Stewart

7. Chauncey Washington

8. Steve Slaton

9. Ray Rice

10. Felix Jones

 

[happy_donut]

 

[EBF]

Some thoughts on the first three tiers.

Tier One

1. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

3. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

These three have been discussed at length and we continue to have them reversed in what is now a little boring for me. The rest of this class has become more interesting. Three top shelf prospects in my mind. I would likely trade LJ for any of them after the draft, if that explains how much I like them. So think about that with pick #3, my friend. I mean, ya know, just in case by some oddity you get stuck with that bambi legged guy. Stewart had surpassed Mendenhall, with me, mostly based on listening to others around here. When he came out of high school I pimped him heavily at another site, and he let me down for two and a half of the three years he played. So familiarity breeding a little negativity is strong here. Mostly it was the constant injury trouble. Broke an ankle in high school. Sprained one early as a freshman. Sprained both as a sophomorehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rloo1rd4Bl4. Hurt his shoulder early last season then fought through turf toe all year. And I know I'm missing at least one other aggravating little ding. In struggling to pick favorites here, this weighs heavily on me. I'll make my case best as I can sometime before the draft, for posterity if nothing else.

Tier Two

4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

5. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers

6. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

7. James Hardy, WR, Indiana

This made me wish for the non-ppr rankings. My mind doesn't do ppr very well. So, I have to separate them by position here. Clearly you like Rice a lot. PPR actually downgrades his FF scoring prospects among some of these other backs, yet he holds steady here, I'm guessing based on him being a tier of his own at RB4. I can't argue with that, but I thought it really stood out in this format with these tiers. Any prospect can flame out in the NFL, but with Rice it is a little harder to imagine than with the others. Solid ceiling, maybe not the highest, but solid. Higher floor. coolnerd, the Spartans thought for sure they found their route running, good hands and possession talent in snatching Devin from Juco ranks. They were pleasantly surprised by the power, agility, long speed, yac ability and return skills. He does stand out a little in an unclear crop. I originally placed him where EBF has him among WRs, but slowly I'm picking up a Chad Jackson thing with him and a Marshall, Colston, Burress thing with the others. I'm nearly consigned to saying just pick your favorite and hope for the best, because no amount of detailed analysis seems to separate these kids to me. I would put Manningham in this tier considering I think he has as good a shot at WR1 production. Desean may nudge his way into this tier for me.

I've defended Sweed a little more than most and persistently ranked him above Kelly. That's just because I'm impressed with Sweed's intangibles (very very) very much, and not so impressed with Kelly's. Kelly is a little mysterious this off-season and that bugs me especially with squirrelly WRs, but on the drop of a good 40 and some positive buzz about work ethic or personality stuff from the scouts, he quickly shoots up my board. I'm partially hoping all the news is good and he falls to me with a near elite grade at pick 10. I say partially because I still anticipate taking an RB at 1.10 in non ppr. This Thomas, Kelly, Hardy tier is probably right on the money. I just have issues with two of them (Devin and Malcolm) where I don't with some others. Those issues can and probably will be cleared up in the next few weeks.

Tier Three

8. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

9. Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida

10. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

11. Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech

12. Desean Jackson, WR, California

Again, I see an RB in a tier of his own. I think that's a significant statement for Felix. I wish I was so sold. Here's a little secret that flies in the face of prevailing opinion. Felix is not a great receiver. A Tatum Bell comp may be the best one. He has a hard time adjusting to balls with any arch on them, he's a little wood-handed, and he was pulled from punt return duty over these issues (in practice). He played with an awful QB, and the assumption that he's a great receiver has no substance behind it. There's no evidence in his 16 receptions. I have a laundry list of items that have him at RB10 on my list, and he'd drop another notch in PPR with me. I know a lot of typing has been invested in claiming Felix is a great 3rd down receiving back (by other posters, not EBF) and I expect some to want to roll the eyes and be upset with my comments. Just know you're not necessarily arguing with me, but with the Arkansas coaching staff. That's where I picked up these comments after some serious digging and seeing him drop a few catchable balls while looking very stiff in the process. I like these backs more than most, and I love the Portis compare here for the upper limit of his ceiling. But that's a longshot, and I see a lower floor with Felix than others. If you like the risk reward ratio of boom or bust drafting, than shoot for this kid at 1.04 like so many already are. Tatum Bell is not as bad as many think. I'm not feeling the Eddie Royal love. He was the 3rd leading receiver at VT. Now he's sixth in this class? I know he too played with a joke QB, but he should have been better than 3rd on the team if he was up to this ranking. His Senior Bowl certainly turned some heads and the workout warrior triangle numbers are reminiscent of Galloway, but in the end I see a kick returner, very raw, who's had an impressive post season run to the draft. While a great athlete who can go the distance with any touch, I just don't see a serious football talent. I expect him to get lost on special teams. Desean has better hands, routes, and speed.

Other than these WRs are too difficult to separate to complain much about rankings.

Thanks for the thoughtful comments. A couple quick notes:1. The Stewart durability issue is a big one. Backs who take big hits don't stay healthy for long. So if he gets into trouble in that area then he could be a big disappointment. Then again, ALL RBs get injured, so it's sometimes best to roll the dice on the most talented player instead of the guy who will stay healthy. Stewart looked like a man among boys in his bowl game and I think he's capable of being a monster if the chips fall the right way. He is not a risk-free prospect though and I am not actively targeting him in any of my drafts.

2. I see where you're coming from regarding Devin Thomas and Chad Jackson. I have to admit that that compare did come to mind at one point. They're pretty similar physically. Where I see a big difference is in instincts, toughness, and production. Chad Jackson never had the kind of season Devin Thomas had in 2007. Moreover, he seemed less like a natural receiver and more like a workout warrior trying to play receiver. I did have Jackson pretty high on my board two years ago though. Maybe I've fallen for the same gimmick, but I think Thomas is a better receiver.

3. You've nailed my take on Ray Rice. Of all the backs in this draft, he has the running style that most closely resembles the elite pro runners. He runs very low with great first-step lateral quickness. If he had Mendenhall's body then he would be the top player on my board. The issue with him is size. Will a team give a 200 pound grinder a chance to carry the load? Will NFL linebackers eat him for breakfast? There's enough uncertainty there to keep him outside the top 3 RBs, but I love the way he runs the ball and actually won't be surprised to see him outperform the first round picks ala MJD or Gore.

4. Felix Jones is a player I've gone back and forth on. One day I love him. The next day I think he's going to flop. I agree that he is a boom-or-bust pick. My attitude is that any RB with a first round grade and decent computer numbers warrants a long look. I've gotten in trouble trying to outsmart the NFL scouts on some of these guys in the past.

5. Eddie Royal. Third WR on his college team? Doesn't matter to me. He'll be the first one drafted by a wide margin. College isn't the NFL. Sometimes the guy who looks like the star in college gets grossly outperformed by the unsung guy when they reach the next level. Some recent examples of this phenomenon: Reggie Brown/Fred Gibson, Santonio Holmes/Anthony Gonzalez/Ted Ginn, Darrell Jackson/Travis Taylor, Laveranues Coles/Peter Warrick, Reggie Wayne/Santana Moss (okay, they're both very good, but Wayne is better). Royal projects more as a WR2 than a WR1 for an NFL team, but he is an exciting athlete who jumps off the screen at you. I think he is going to show that he has natural WR skills.

 

[EBF]

Regarding Royal, don't get me wrong, I don't think he's the next Steve Smith. His NFL upside seems limited to becoming a WR2 or a de facto WR1 like Kevin Curtis or Laveranues Coles. But when you talk about players who have the "it" factor in this class, I think he fits the bill. He has a way of making extremely athletic plays look easy, which is something you often see in the guys who succeed at the next level. In that regard he reminds me of Curtis, who I've praised from the first time I saw him in a preseason game. I look for Royal to eventually have a similar impact.

 

[westbrook36]

I gotta disagree with your Chris Johnson evaluation. I think he will be the best RB in this draft. He does remind me of Brian Westbrook, except he is much faster. He has the moves, the speed, the field vision, explosiveness that a great RB needs. His tremendous production was then backed up by an outstanding combine. Like Westbrook I think teams will pass on him due to his size, and the fact that he goes to a small school. So many teams will be kicking themselves down the road when they realize how great Chris Johnson is in a few years, and they could have had him.

 

[EBF]

I gotta disagree with your Chris Johnson evaluation. I think he will be the best RB in this draft. He does reminds me of Brian Westbrook, except he is much faster. He has the moves, the speed, the field vision, explosiveness that a great RB needs. His tremendous production was then backed up by an outstanding combine. Like Westbrook I think teams will pass on him due to his size, and the fact that he goes to a small school. So many teams will be kicking themselves down the road when they realize how great Chris Johnson is in a few years, and they could have had him.

Where I have him is probably unfairly low. When you look at combine numbers and draft hype he should be a top 10 player on my board. I guess I just view him as more of a scat back than a workhorse. I feel pretty good about most of these rankings, but I may have to take another look at this guy. I could be WAY off on him right now.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Regarding Royal, don't get me wrong, I don't think he's the next Steve Smith. His NFL upside seems limited to becoming a WR2 or a de facto WR1 like Kevin Curtis or Laveranues Coles. But when you talk about players who have the "it" factor in this class, I think he fits the bill. He has a way of making extremely athletic plays look easy, which is something you often see in the guys who succeed at the next level. In that regard he reminds me of Curtis, who I've praised from the first time I saw him in a preseason game. I look for Royal to eventually have a similar impact.

The name that pops in my mind, for good or bad - is Steve Smith.Now that's wrong on many levels as you just can't say that Player X is the next Pro Bowl player. However, when you say what his upside is, I'd say about 80-95% of Steve Smith would be a pretty good definition.

 

[EBF]

I am going to bump Chris Johnson up here. It was a mistake and an oversight to have him so low. In reality, his draft stock is close to that of Felix Jones and he should probably be considered in the same range in FF drafts. I got a little too carried away with the "scat back" thing without looking at the rare athletic gifts he brings to the table.

 

[Jedimaster21]

Some thoughts on the first three tiers.

Tier One

1. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

3. Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

These three have been discussed at length and we continue to have them reversed in what is now a little boring for me. The rest of this class has become more interesting. Three top shelf prospects in my mind. I would likely trade LJ for any of them after the draft, if that explains how much I like them. So think about that with pick #3, my friend. I mean, ya know, just in case by some oddity you get stuck with that bambi legged guy. Stewart had surpassed Mendenhall, with me, mostly based on listening to others around here. When he came out of high school I pimped him heavily at another site, and he let me down for two and a half of the three years he played. So familiarity breeding a little negativity is strong here. Mostly it was the constant injury trouble. Broke an ankle in high school. Sprained one early as a freshman. Sprained both as a sophomore. Hurt his shoulder early last season then fought through turf toe all year. And I know I'm missing at least one other aggravating little ding. In struggling to pick favorites here, this weighs heavily on me. I'll make my case best as I can sometime before the draft, for posterity if nothing else.

Tier Two

4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

5. Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers

6. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

7. James Hardy, WR, Indiana

This made me wish for the non-ppr rankings. My mind doesn't do ppr very well. So, I have to separate them by position here. Clearly you like Rice a lot. PPR actually downgrades his FF scoring prospects among some of these other backs, yet he holds steady here, I'm guessing based on him being a tier of his own at RB4. I can't argue with that, but I thought it really stood out in this format with these tiers. Any prospect can flame out in the NFL, but with Rice it is a little harder to imagine than with the others. Solid ceiling, maybe not the highest, but solid. Higher floor. coolnerd, the Spartans thought for sure they found their route running, good hands and possession talent in snatching Devin from Juco ranks. They were pleasantly surprised by the power, agility, long speed, yac ability and return skills. He does stand out a little in an unclear crop. I originally placed him where EBF has him among WRs, but slowly I'm picking up a Chad Jackson thing with him and a Marshall, Colston, Burress thing with the others. I'm nearly consigned to saying just pick your favorite and hope for the best, because no amount of detailed analysis seems to separate these kids to me. I would put Manningham in this tier considering I think he has as good a shot at WR1 production. Desean may nudge his way into this tier for me.

I've defended Sweed a little more than most and persistently ranked him above Kelly. That's just because I'm impressed with Sweed's intangibles (very very) very much, and not so impressed with Kelly's. Kelly is a little mysterious this off-season and that bugs me especially with squirrelly WRs, but on the drop of a good 40 and some positive buzz about work ethic or personality stuff from the scouts, he quickly shoots up my board. I'm partially hoping all the news is good and he falls to me with a near elite grade at pick 10. I say partially because I still anticipate taking an RB at 1.10 in non ppr. This Thomas, Kelly, Hardy tier is probably right on the money. I just have issues with two of them (Devin and Malcolm) where I don't with some others. Those issues can and probably will be cleared up in the next few weeks.

Tier Three

8. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

9. Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida

10. Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan

11. Eddie Royal, WR, Virginia Tech

12. Desean Jackson, WR, California

Again, I see an RB in a tier of his own. I think that's a significant statement for Felix. I wish I was so sold. Here's a little secret that flies in the face of prevailing opinion. Felix is not a great receiver. A Tatum Bell comp may be the best one. He has a hard time adjusting to balls with any arch on them, he's a little wood-handed, and he was pulled from punt return duty over these issues (in practice). He played with an awful QB, and the assumption that he's a great receiver has no substance behind it. There's no evidence in his 16 receptions. I have a laundry list of items that have him at RB10 on my list, and he'd drop another notch in PPR with me. I know a lot of typing has been invested in claiming Felix is a great 3rd down receiving back (by other posters, not EBF) and I expect some to want to roll the eyes and be upset with my comments. Just know you're not necessarily arguing with me, but with the Arkansas coaching staff. That's where I picked up these comments after some serious digging and seeing him drop a few catchable balls while looking very stiff in the process. I like these backs more than most, and I love the Portis compare here for the upper limit of his ceiling. But that's a longshot, and I see a lower floor with Felix than others. If you like the risk reward ratio of boom or bust drafting, than shoot for this kid at 1.04 like so many already are. Tatum Bell is not as bad as many think. I'm not feeling the Eddie Royal love. He was the 3rd leading receiver at VT. Now he's sixth in this class? I know he too played with a struggling QB, but he should have been better than 3rd on the team if he was up to this ranking. His Senior Bowl certainly turned some heads and the workout warrior triangle numbers are reminiscent of Galloway, but in the end I see a kick returner, very raw, who's had an impressive post season run to the draft. While a great athlete who can go the distance with any touch, I just don't see a serious football talent. I expect him to get lost on special teams. Desean has better hands, routes, and speed.

Other than that these WRs are too difficult to separate to complain much about rankings.

I have been a huge Felix defender, and think he has the skill set to be very good in the NFL. I actually don't think he is the boom or bust pick some are saying, because I see a player that should be a 200 touch RB/kickoff returner in the worst case scenario. That actually makes for a pretty safe play. However, I always thought that he was a pretty good receiver. From what I can remember, he actually looked pretty natural catching the ball. Is there any video of him catching the ball or struggling in this department that you could link?

 

[FUBAR]

So while I'm tipping my hand to my leaguemates here, I don't really care.

And we thank you!First off, EBF, is one of the PREMIER rookie scouts on this board. I've tracked his "hot picks" over the years and while he takes some chances, his threads always cause me to re-evaluate, and this list is NO different. I for one am a big fan of the player comparisons.

I recently traded Marshawn Lynch away for one of these top 3 mainly because I see Mendenhall and Stewart as BOTH more talented than Lynch. Do you agree with that assessment? (not the trade) Also,

4. Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State

Positives: Fluid runner with a strong build. Good shiftiness to get separation before the catch and make plays after the catch. Explosive athlete. Strong player. Versatile receiver who can make catches all over the field. Plays with fire. Quietly had a dominant season in which he averaged almost 100 yards per game in a BCS conference.

Negatives: Not a great deep ball receiver. More of an intermediate target who can get deep than a true deep threat.

NFL Comparison: Hines Ward, Dwayne Bowe

Overall: Thomas had been flying under the radar before his stellar showing at the combine. Not anymore. He will be a top 15-30 pick in April and he should eventually become one of the better skill players to emerge from this class.

I am real interested in more in depth analysis about this guy. Seems to be some big time buzz with this kid. AWESOME JOB BRO!

I'm not EBF, but I passed on an offer of Lynch for my 1.02 awhile back, so basically I agree. Although I'm pretty sure I'm taking Mendenhall. Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Thomas as similar to Greg Jennings.

1.02 Devin Thomas, Interesting.

There are times when you make sense. Rare, but they're there.

This isn't one of them.

You said ' I'm not EBF, but I passed on an offer of Lynch for my 1.02 awhile back'. 'Although I'm pretty sure I'm taking Mendenhall'.Under Devin Thomas, so one would think you are high on DT. No?

If No what did you mean?

two separate comments.1. I prefer 1.02 to Lynch

2. I like Thomas, see him as similar in some ways to Jennings. so yes, high on, but not 1.02 high.

this really wasn't difficult. Do I need to state "BREAK" between separate thoughts, is the separate paragraph not enough?

 

[EBF]

I am going to bump Chris Johnson up here. It was a mistake and an oversight to have him so low. In reality, his draft stock is close to that of Felix Jones and he should probably be considered in the same range in FF drafts. I got a little too carried away with the "scat back" thing without looking at the rare athletic gifts he brings to the table.

More on Chris Johnson: He wasn't on my radar at all throughout most of the year, so I think I was inclined to dismiss him without giving him much thought. That was a mistake. Now that I've stepped back and considered his prospects objectively, I think he is comparable in value to Felix Jones. This is a guy who will go in the top 45 picks in April and has a fairly elite set of physical skills. Couple that with good production and a decent score on the "eyeball test" and you have an intriguing RB prospect who will almost certainly come of the board in the first 8 picks in most rookie drafts. So while I still have some issues with his lack of power, my initial ranking of 23 was criminally bad. He is worth a look inside the top 10 due to his upside. He isn't a sure thing, but who is?Other than that, I don't see any major faults with my rankings. Thanks to westbrook36 for pointing this one out.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I am going to bump Chris Johnson up here. It was a mistake and an oversight to have him so low. In reality, his draft stock is close to that of Felix Jones and he should probably be considered in the same range in FF drafts. I got a little too carried away with the "scat back" thing without looking at the rare athletic gifts he brings to the table.

More on Chris Johnson: He wasn't on my radar at all throughout most of the year, so I think I was inclined to dismiss him without giving him much thought. That was a mistake. Now that I've stepped back and considered his prospects objectively, I think he is comparable in value to Felix Jones. This is a guy who will go in the top 45 picks in April and has a fairly elite set of physical skills. Couple that with good production and a decent score on the "eyeball test" and you have an intriguing RB prospect who will almost certainly come of the board in the first 8 picks in most rookie drafts. So while I still have some issues with his lack of power, my initial ranking of 23 was criminally bad. He is worth a look inside the top 10 due to his upside. He isn't a sure thing, but who is?Other than that, I don't see any major faults with my rankings. Thanks to westbrook36 for pointing this one out.

I am glad you turned the corner on Johnson, EBF. I really can't imagine not taking a shot on Johnson at the top of round 2. He is going to be drafted high, and teams find ways to get playmakers the ball. He carries more risk, and you are going to have to be married to him for at least 2 years, because I think he will have to earn the job. I can see him claiming one tough by excelling in the two minute offense. EC would often line him out wide and through wr screens to him. I am going to seriously consider him higher than most.

 

[westbrook36]

I am going to bump Chris Johnson up here. It was a mistake and an oversight to have him so low. In reality, his draft stock is close to that of Felix Jones and he should probably be considered in the same range in FF drafts. I got a little too carried away with the "scat back" thing without looking at the rare athletic gifts he brings to the table.

More on Chris Johnson: He wasn't on my radar at all throughout most of the year, so I think I was inclined to dismiss him without giving him much thought. That was a mistake. Now that I've stepped back and considered his prospects objectively, I think he is comparable in value to Felix Jones. This is a guy who will go in the top 45 picks in April and has a fairly elite set of physical skills. Couple that with good production and a decent score on the "eyeball test" and you have an intriguing RB prospect who will almost certainly come of the board in the first 8 picks in most rookie drafts. So while I still have some issues with his lack of power, my initial ranking of 23 was criminally bad. He is worth a look inside the top 10 due to his upside. He isn't a sure thing, but who is?Other than that, I don't see any major faults with my rankings. Thanks to westbrook36 for pointing this one out.

Your Welcome Really out of your top 24, that was the only thing that jumped out at me. Everything else seemed to be really good. Thanks for posting this.

 

[EBF]

I am glad you turned the corner on Johnson, EBF. I really can't imagine not taking a shot on Johnson at the top of round 2. He is going to be drafted high, and teams find ways to get playmakers the ball. He carries more risk, and you are going to have to be married to him for at least 2 years, because I think he will have to earn the job. I can see him claiming one tough by excelling in the two minute offense. EC would often line him out wide and through wr screens to him. I am going to seriously consider him higher than most.

The bottom line is that any RB taken in the top 50 picks in the draft deserves a long look fairly high in your rookie draft. There are some issues with Johnson that make him a less than safe bet to become a top 15-20 type FF RB, but he'll be an early pick on draft day and some team is going to give him an opportunity to make an early impact. That makes him a valuable commodity. And while I'm not necessarily in love with his game, he has enough athletic ability and football skills to succeed. You can't put 100% blind faith in the experts, but you do have to factor their opinions into your rakings. They've been right about some guys that I really didn't expect big things from (Addai, MJD, Gore). With that said, I think Johnson belongs in the 9 spot on my list. He is not a safe prospect, but you can justify taking him as high as the 4-5 range due to his big upside and potential for immediate return on your investment. It's very likely that he'll be more valuable than the likes of Royal and Manningham at this time next year, so he should probably be drafted ahead of them.

Sorting through this RB class is a bit of an adventure. I think you can break the top prospects into the following groups:

Eventual Starters

Jonathan Stewart

Rashard Mendenhall

Darren McFadden

These three are solid FF commodities who will eventually get a starting opportunity. They stand a good chance of being consensus top 25 FF players within the next year or two, but historical odds say one of them will be a bust.

Potential Starters

Ray Rice

Felix Jones

Chris Johnson

Kevin Smith

Jamaal Charles

Talented enough to excite you, but flawed enough to concern you. Historically, 2nd and 3rd round RBs have about a 30-35% success rate. Since this seems like a slightly above average group, I'd venture to guess that 2-3 of them will pan out. Johnson and Jones will likely be the first ones taken in April. Charles is also in the mix for a high draft slot. Rice is my favorite of the bunch, though he will probably be drafted below several of these guys.

Backups With Spot Starter Potential

Tashard Choice

Matt Forte

Good players with borderline physical skills. Unlikely to seize a starting role, but capable of producing if they land in a good situation.

You might look at this list and wonder why I have a guy like Choice ranked above Charles and Smith. Maybe that's a mistake on my part, but I think it boils down to the player's odds of achieving his upside. I know what I'm getting in Choice. He's a Chester Taylor type who will produce when he gets a shot. I can see him having a Domanick Davis type of impact if he lands in a great spot. Guys like Charles and Smith have more upside, but they also have more JJ Arrington potential.

 

[Chaos Commish]

Again, I see an RB in a tier of his own. I think that's a significant statement for Felix. I wish I was so sold. Here's a little secret that flies in the face of prevailing opinion. Felix is not a great receiver. A Tatum Bell comp may be the best one. He has a hard time adjusting to balls with any arch on them, he's a little wood-handed, and he was pulled from punt return duty over these issues (in practice). He played with an awful QB, and the assumption that he's a great receiver has no substance behind it. There's no evidence in his 16 receptions. I have a laundry list of items that have him at RB10 on my list, and he'd drop another notch in PPR with me. I know a lot of typing has been invested in claiming Felix is a great 3rd down receiving back (by other posters, not EBF) and I expect some to want to roll the eyes and be upset with my comments. Just know you're not necessarily arguing with me, but with the Arkansas coaching staff. That's where I picked up these comments after some serious digging and seeing him drop a few catchable balls while looking very stiff in the process. I like these backs more than most, and I love the Portis compare here for the upper limit of his ceiling. But that's a longshot, and I see a lower floor with Felix than others. If you like the risk reward ratio of boom or bust drafting, than shoot for this kid at 1.04 like so many already are. Tatum Bell is not as bad as many think.

I have been a huge Felix defender, and think he has the skill set to be very good in the NFL. I actually don't think he is the boom or bust pick some are saying, because I see a player that should be a 200 touch RB/kickoff returner in the worst case scenario. That actually makes for a pretty safe play. However, I always thought that he was a pretty good receiver. From what I can remember, he actually looked pretty natural catching the ball. Is there any video of him catching the ball or struggling in this department that you could link?

I know you've been a huge Felix defender (and put a quality effort into reporting in his bdtt thread, so thanks). I agree he has the skillset to be a very good NFL RB. I was serious telling people who really like him to go for it at 1.04. These are good backs. Some will hit and some will miss. I also agreed with EBF that Portis is a good compare for his ceiling. That is an elite ceiling, imo. So you may be reading too much into my criticism. I even agree with EBF that showing rankings with these kids isn't any big deal, because like him, I'm not going to worry about any of these players in particular with so much to choose from. In other threads I suggest that you have a deck of cards (players) in the second tier of RBs who can be shuffled. I don't have a beef with those ranking Felix 4th, I just happen to prefer a few others. I would gladly draft Felix if he fell to me before any of these WRs. That has been my point about the depth of these RBs all along. I could be making a mistake grading so many so high, but I obviously think others are making the mistake grading some too low. Some people will pick their guy, be it Felix, Rice or another and "want" him. Not me. I want them all and will settle for who I get. EBF fixed his Chris Johnson ranking, and I think he should do similar with Forte, who is a very good receiver and the best blocker in the bunch. These things may get him on the field sooner than EBF expects, and his young legs will produce. I don't have a link for Felix's lowlights, but I think that's a terrific idea for DraftGuys. Highlights are youtubed to death. We should find someone to do the same with lowlights.

This time of year I read about these kids for a few hours every day. I am sure if you google enough about Felix, you'll find one of his coach's explaining his hands issue with fielding punts and certain passes. It was, iirc, a draft/scouting related article, so it is pretty current. Some of these fbguys are about to view the Cotton Bowl. I'm pretty sure one of Felix's drops is in that game. The other one that bugged me was very early in the season, because I had just pimped him to Bloom in PMs as likely the #2 back in the class.

Also, I'm not keen on kick return skills for FF value in my RBs. It's a nice plus for a DB in my scoring, but RBs who return kicks are rarely productive for FF. It's nice that Bush and Drew have the ability, but I'd rather they play in the offense more and return kicks less. How many starting backs are returning kicks in the league?

To continue, ever since apparently being very wrong about Reggie Bush, I have second thoughts on certain types of players. Felix is such a player. I love that he has such low miles, nice moves, speed, acceleration, and vision. I'm not impressed with him shedding tacklers and running in the trenches. In college, the field is divided in thirds with two wide edges and the trenches in the middle. In the NFL the whole field IS the trenches. I like Felix's chances in the right situation. I just like a few other guys more, but not any WRs.

EBF has Felix as the #8 player in the draft. I have him #10. I just have more RBs ahead of him, not a way lower assessment of value, just a little lower.

 

[Chaos Commish]

You might look at this list and wonder why I have a guy like Choice ranked above Charles and Smith. Maybe that's a mistake on my part, but I think it boils down to the player's odds of achieving his upside. I know what I'm getting in Choice. He's a Chester Taylor type who will produce when he gets a shot. I can see him having a Domanick Davis type of impact if he lands in a great spot. Guys like Charles and Smith have more upside, but they also have more JJ Arrington potential.

About a month ago, I wasn't at all excited about Forte, but you and Wildman made some very good points. I'm leaning away from the JJ Arrington potential guys a little more these days, and seeing more to like in the Choice, Forte, Smith types. A lot of this stems from watching Reggie so much in college and just not getting him in the NFL. It's been a pretty stunning disappointment to me. And then a slashing hard hitting kid like Ryan Grant plays at a much higher level. I dunno. I used to argue that these kids look much the same at both levels, it's just harder in the NFL. If there is one area that doesn't seem to be right, it's scatback RBs. They struggle.

 

[EBF]

You might look at this list and wonder why I have a guy like Choice ranked above Charles and Smith. Maybe that's a mistake on my part, but I think it boils down to the player's odds of achieving his upside. I know what I'm getting in Choice. He's a Chester Taylor type who will produce when he gets a shot. I can see him having a Domanick Davis type of impact if he lands in a great spot. Guys like Charles and Smith have more upside, but they also have more JJ Arrington potential.

About a month ago, I wasn't at all excited about Forte, but you and Wildman made some very good points. I'm leaning away from the JJ Arrington potential guys a little more these days, and seeing more to like in the Choice, Forte, Smith types. A lot of this stems from watching Reggie so much in college and just not getting him in the NFL. It's been a pretty stunning disappointment to me. And then a slashing hard hitting kid like Ryan Grant plays at a much higher level. I dunno. I used to argue that these kids look much the same at both levels, it's just harder in the NFL. If there is one area that doesn't seem to be right, it's scatback RBs. They struggle.

As I've said a few times this offseason, RB is NOT a pure speed position. It's the offensive equivalent of the linebacker. Most RBs are much lighter than most LBs, but they still have to be heavy enough to put a hit on those guys. So when I look at RBs I don't just look for guys who run fast. I look for guys who can navigate the trash, punish tacklers, and break free after initial contact. What makes guys like Tomlinson and Peterson elite is that they can run away from defenders, but they can also lower the hammer and bring the pain. This is where I have a bit of a problem with Charles, Slaton, and Johnson. They're all talented players. Give them some touches and they can make some positive plays. But are they going to be your bell cow and mix it up inside? Are they going to bust tackles and get the tough yards? That's where I have my doubts. Charles and Slaton might be doomed by their skinny frames. I felt the same way about Johnson initially, but he seemingly has a little room left to add weight and he's a freakish enough athlete to warrant a bit of a pass. Felix Jones is another guy who teeters dangerously on the "third down back" border. If he were a bit stockier he would be higher on my list. The reason I've been pimping Mendenhall and Stewart for months is because they have that elusive combination of stocky 220+ pound frames coupled with respectable speed and quickness. That's what first round RBs are made of. As for Reggie Bush, I think the rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated, but he has definitely been a lukewarm peformer and a disappointment given his hype. He will never be a punishing runner. He needs to get in a system that properly exploits his unique abiities in order for us to see how good he can be.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I don't have a link for Felix's lowlights, but I think that's a terrific idea for DraftGuys.

Hoping to do that in a way in the multi-person BDTT, but it will be for McFadden, Smith and Charles, IIRC.

 

[switz]

EBF,

In general, excellent post. I don't necessarily agree with most of your rankings, but I appreciate the time and effort you put into this, and in general all of your posts. With that respect, here are a few of my responses:

1. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

Positives: Stewart is a powerful runner with a low center of gravity and enough hip swerve to make some nifty runs. He doesn't make a lot of "wow" plays like Reggie Bush or Adrian Peterson, but he does just about everything competently. He has the best package of physical skills of any RB in this class with elite strength, mid 4.4 speed, and good overall combine numbers.

Negatives: A little bit of a plodder. Right on the fence between ideal size and being too bulky. Will take some big hits and may be the type of back who is constantly on the injured list. Recently underwent surgery for a toe injury, which may or may not cause any lasting effects.

Overall: I expect Stewart to be a productive NFL starter when healthy. He should at least be a RB2 for FF purposes and if he lands on a good team then he could have a top 5 type impact. However, he is a notch below the truly elite prospects of recent years and he should not be viewed as a slam dunk stud. The injury issues are a concern and I have a nagging hunch that he might be banged up a lot at the pro level. I would not mortgage the farm to acquire him, but if I had the 1.01 pick he would probably be my choice at this point in time.

NFL Comparison: Ricky Williams, Fred Taylor

I'm not quite sure I understand your take. Everything you say, I agree with, minus two things: mid 4-4 speed, and Fred Taylor. But in view of what you wrote, that he's basically a #2 RB for FF purposes, how do you have him as the #1 RB in this class? And what about him makes you think Fred Taylor at all? Taylor is one of the best RBs to ever play the game, despite being injured quite often over his career. Stewart is nowhere near that.

8. Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

Positives: Explosive. At his best, he looks like the real deal. He can plant his foot in the ground and change directions instantly. He has a pretty good build for the position, with most of his weight concentrated in his thighs. He had silly YPC averages in college. Has enough sustained speed to break long runs.

Negatives: Doesn't break tackles. A bit of an enigma. It's almost like there were two different guys named Felix Jones running the ball for Arkansas last year. One of them was a beast, but the other one...not so much.

Overall: A boom-or-bust player who could be great or a total flop. In the end though, he has a good overall package of skills and I think he makes a worthwhile gamble once the top receivers are off the board.

If any player in this draft has a great chance to be a STUD, it's Jones. I think Mendenhall may be the safest pick, as you do, but Mendenhall is a Marshawn Lynch, Joseph Addai player. RM is a great RB, who will probably be top-5 most of his career, but never the #1 RB. Jones OTOH I think has all the goods to be the #1 RB in the league.

21. Early Doucet, WR, LSU

Positives: Good size and strength. Versatile receiver who should grow into a starting role at the next level.

Negatives: Doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well. He was a major recruit for LSU, but he never really became a star in college. There aren't any glaring holes in his game, yet he's a tough player to get excited about.

Overall: Another talented receiver with starting potential, Doucet should eventually become a contributor for an NFL team. But I view him more as a 800-900 yard type than a guy who is going to dominate. He will have to land in the perfect situation to become a top 20 type.

I suck at ranking WRs... I'll say that to start. But something about Doucet sticks out to me, he just seems like a Boldin, Owens guy, who didn't get all the college level accolades, but exploded in the NFL. Eh... who knows, I'm usually wrong, right?BTW, I love the Charles/Portis comparison.

 

[switz]

What makes guys like Tomlinson and Peterson elite is that they can run away from defenders, but they can also lower the hammer and bring the pain.

I don't think I've ever seen LT lower the hammer and bring the pain.

 

[EBF]

What makes guys like Tomlinson and Peterson elite is that they can run away from defenders, but they can also lower the hammer and bring the pain.

I don't think I've ever seen LT lower the hammer and bring the pain.

That wasn't the best wording. He generally avoids contact and that's probably part of the reason why he's been so durable, but he's a strong runner capable of running through arm tackles and delivering a hit if he's forced to.